Misunderstanding the scale of the spread of coronavirus in the UK during March “undoubtedly” cost lives, according to a leading public health expert.
Independent scientists have accused the Boris Johnson’s government and its advisers of making two crucial mistakes: failing to understand where Britain was on the epidemic’s curve, and assuming the public would suffer from “fatigue” if lockdown was brought in too early.
The chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallace claimed on 12 March that the peak of epidemic “could be 10 to 14 weeks away” – but evidence now indicates Britain’s peak came much sooner, in the second week of April.
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Paul Hunter, professor of health protection at the University of East Anglia, said the “big error” was relying on flawed modelling to make critical decisions.
“Everything we were looking at was probably two to three weeks out of date, in terms of what the infection was doing in the community,” he told BBC’s Newsnight . “I think that was a big error – and that has undoubtedly led to the large number of deaths that we’ve had.”
Experts also criticised an apparent guess made by No 10’s closest scientific advisers in the early weeks of March that the public would not stick with lockdown rules.
On 9 March, chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said: “There is a risk if we go too early people will understandably get fatigued and it will be difficult to sustain this over time.”
Professor Robert West, member of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B), said the idea of “lockdown fatigue” did not come from his group.
“There’s no science behind the idea of behavioural fatigue,” he told the BBC. “I couldn’t blame someone like Chris [Whitty] for bringing up this notion. But at a very early stage the government should have said, “Actually that’s not a thing”.”
Minutes from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) meeting from 13 March stated: “There is some evidence that people find quarantining harder to comply with the longer it goes on. The evidence is not strong but the effect is intuitive.”
Officials at the Cabinet Office’s Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) – the so-called “nudge unit” denied the idea of “fatigue” came from them.
A BIT spokesperson said the team had “categorically never proposed or suggested behavioural fatigue with respect to Covid-19, and in particular never proposed fatigue as grounds for delay or shorten social distancing or any other measures aimed at Covid-19”.
Conservative MP Greg Clarke, chair of the House of Commons’ science and technology committee, suggested the government had stuck too rigidly to the idea of “following” the scientists.
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39/50 21 June 2020Soccer Football – Premier League – Everton v Liverpool – Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain – June 21, 2020 Children play football outside the stadium before the match, as play resumes behind closed doors following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
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2/50 28 July 2020Stuart Broad celebrates after taking the wicket of West Indies batsman Kraigg Brathwaite. It was a milestone wicket in his career, reaching his 500th Test Wicket for England. They went on to beat the West Indies in Manchester and therefore win the series 2-1
Getty/ECB
3/50 27 July 2020Demonstrators protest outside the Tate Modern in London over proposed job losses in the wake of the Covid-19 lockdown. The group believe that the emergency money provided by the government to culture-based organisations should be used to retain all jobs and that any other use of the funding is unfair. The gallery on London’s South Bank, as well as the Tate Britain, Tate Liverpool and Tate St Ives, reopened today after closing in March due to lockdown measures meant to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus
Getty
4/50 26 July 2020Harry Maguire shakes hands with Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers after Manchester United beat the Foxes. The win meant they finished third in the Premier League and Leicester finished outside a Champions League place in fourth
Pool via Reuters
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AFP via Getty
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7/50 23 July 2020A customer has her hair cut outside at Blade Hairdressers in Soho in London
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8/50 22 July 2020Liverpool’s English midfielder Jordan Henderson lifts the Premier League trophy during the presentation following the English Premier League football match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield in Liverpool. Liverpool on Wednesday lifted the Premier League trophy at the famous Kop stand at Anfield after their final home game of the season
AFP via Getty
9/50 21 July 2020Vivienne Westwood demonstrates outside the Old Bailey in support of Julian Assange in London
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13/50 17 July 2020Captain Sir Thomas Moore receives his knighthood from Queen Elizabeth, during a ceremony at Windsor Castle
AP
14/50 16 July 2020Red Arrows do a flypast during the Graduation Ceremony of the Queen’s Squadron at RAF College Cranwell, Lincolnshire
The Daily Telegraph/PA
15/50 15 July 2020Jen Reid poses in front of a black resin and steel statue titled ‘A Surge of Power (Jen Reid) 2020’, which is based on her by Marc Quinn, where it has been installed on the vacant Edward Colston plinth in Bristol city centre. The original statue was pulled down and thrown into Bristol Harbour during Black Lives Matter protests
PA
16/50 14 July 2020Fields of echium and borage in full flower near the town of Thaxted in Essex
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17/50 13 July 2020People ride a rollercoaster in a theme park next to Southend pier. Many businesses in tourism and hospitality have been able to reopen after some lockdown measures were eased
Getty
18/50 12 July 2020West Indies’s John Campbell and Jason Holder celebrate winning the test as England’s Rory Burns and teammates look on dejected
Reuters
19/50 11 July 2020Chicldren play in the water during a cricket match between Abinger and Worplesdon & Nurpham in Abinger Hammer, Surrey
Reuters
20/50 10 July 2020People gather for the funeral of Dame Vera Lynn in Ditchling, England. During World War II she travelled to the frontlines, including Burma, entertaining British troops and boosting morale. She died on 18 June at her home in West Sussex
Getty
21/50 9 July 2020Artist Anish Kapoor looks into his sculpture ‘Sky Mirror’ at Houghton Hall, King’s Lynn, ahead of the opening of his largest UK exhibition of outdoor sculptures
PA
22/50 8 July 2020Players take a knee in support of the Black Lives Matter movement on the first day of the first Test cricket match between England and the West Indies at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton
AFP via Getty
23/50 7 July 2020A circus performer from the Association of Circus Proprietors in Whitehall, London. The association handed a petition to Downing Street to ask Prime Minister Boris Johnson to allow circuses to reopen
EPA
24/50 6 July 2020Bamburgh Castle in Northumberland, which re-opened to the public after being closed due to the coronavirus lockdown
PA
25/50 5 July 2020People visit Columbia Road Flower Market, London, as it reopens following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions across England
PA
26/50 4 July 2020A member of bar staff wearing PPE in the form of a face mask, pours drinks inside the The Goldengrove in Stratford
AFP via Getty
27/50 3 July 2020Cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands prior to the League One play-off semi final match between Portsmouth and Oxford United at Fratton Park
PA
28/50 2 July 2020A diver cleans the inside window of the seal tank at Tynemouth Aquarium in North Shields, as it prepares to open on Saturday after further coronavirus lockdown restrictions are lifted in England
PA
29/50 1 July 2020Slackliner Sandor Nagy practices on the beach in Boscombe, on the south coast of England
AFP via Getty
30/50 30 June 2020(left to right) Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, former Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill attending the funeral of senior Irish Republican and former leading IRA figure Bobby Storey in west Belfast
PA
31/50 29 June 2020Former Team GB Rhythmic Gymnastic dancer Hannah Martin during a training session at Ouse Valley Viaduct in Sussex
Reuters
32/50 28 June 2020People visit Bolton Abbey in Yorkshire, that recently reopened following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restriction
PA
33/50 27 June 2020A protest for Justice for Shukri Abdi on Trafalgar Square in London, following a raft of Black Lives Matter protests across the UK
PA
34/50 26 June 2020Police at the scene of an incident at the Park Inn Hotel in central Glasgow. Scottish police said armed officers shot dead a man after a suspected stabbing in the city centre left six others injured, including one of their colleagues. Several roads were closed and the surrounding area was cordoned off
AFP via Getty
35/50 25 June 2020A horse is washed down at Haydock Racecourse
PA
36/50 24 June 2020People enjoy the hot weather on Margate beach
Reuters
37/50 23 June 2020Tony Bennett the owner of The Devereux pub in Temple, London. Pub and hospitality bosses have cheered the Government’s proposals to allow customers through their doors again on July 4 as “a welcome relief”. PA Photo. Picture date: Tuesday June 23, 2020. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that pubs, restaurants and cinemas will be able to reopen from July 4, with “one metre-plus” distancing measures in place
PA
38/50 22 June 2020Police forensics officers carry out a search near Forbury Gardens, in Reading town centre, the scene of a multiple stabbing attack which took place at around 7pm on Saturday, leaving three people dead and another three seriously injured
PA
39/50 21 June 2020Soccer Football – Premier League – Everton v Liverpool – Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain – June 21, 2020 Children play football outside the stadium before the match, as play resumes behind closed doors following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Action Images via Reuters
40/50 20 June 2020Arsenal’s midfielder Nicolas Pepe kneels before the Premier League match against Brighton and Hove Albion at the American Express Community Stadium in southern England
AFP via Getty
41/50 19 June 2020Bianca Walkden during a training session at the National Taekwondo Centre in Manchester
PA
42/50 18 June 2020French President Emmanuel Macron gestures about social distancing alongside Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he arrives at Downing Street for a meeting. Macron also visited London to commemorate the 80th anniversary of former French president Charles de Gaulle’s appeal to French people to resist the Nazi occupation during World War II
AFP
43/50 17 June 2020Players kneel, as well as, having ‘Black Lives Matter’ in place of names on their shirts prior to the start of the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Sheffield United at Villa Park in Birmingham. The league resumed after its three-month suspension because of coronavirus
AP
44/50 16 June 2020Motakhayyel ridden by Jim Crowley, right, wins the Buckingham Palace Handicap during day one of Royal Ascot. This year, the flat racing’s biggest meeting, is behind closed doors due to the coronavirus outbreak
PA
45/50 15 June 2020Queues form at Primark at the Rushden Lakes shopping complex after the government relaxed coronavirus lockdown laws significantly, allowing zoos, safari parks and non-essential shops to open to visitors
Getty
46/50 14 June 2020A man kneels at a commemoration to mark the third anniversary of the Grenfell Tower fire in London. The fire claimed 72 lives on 14 June 2017
PA
47/50 13 June 2020Protesters confront police in Whitehall near Parliament Square, during a protest by the Democratic Football Lads Alliance
PA
48/50 12 June 2020A Black Lives Matter supporter sings to crowds who marched with her in front of the National Gallery in Trafalgar Square in London. The death of an African American man, George Floyd, while in the custody of Minneapolis police has sparked protests across the United States, as well as demonstrations of solidarity in many countries around the world
Getty
49/50 11 June 2020Scouts show their support at the Lord Baden-Powell statue in Poole. The statue of Robert Baden-Powell on Poole Quay is to be placed in “safe storage” following concerns about his racial views
Getty
50/50 10 June 2020Social distancing markers around the penguin enclosure at London Zoo. Staff have been preparing and are now ready for reopening next week with new signage, one-way trails for visitors to follow, and extra handwashing and sanitiser stations in place
PA
“It takes time for evidence to come in, to be collected, to be analysed and conclusions to be drawn,” said Mr Clarke. “And it may be other countries that didn’t make such a big and public commitment to following the science were freerer to make judgements that … anticipated the evidence.”
Professor Allyson Pollock, a consultant in public health and member of the Independent Sage group of scientists, said it was clear the government relied far too heavily on “modellers and behavioural scientists”.
She added: “But what’s really clear is that there wasn’t enough input from the public health experts and the communicable disease control experts – the people who understood how to manage epidemics on the ground. They were not at the table and they should have been directing operations.”
England suffered the highest number of excess deaths during the pandemic out of any country in Europe, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced on Thursday. The statistics authority said England’s outbreak was notably more broadly spread across the country than in other European nations, where outbreaks were contained in concentrated areas.
Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk