The government is facing calls to ensure coronavirus restrictions are the same across the whole UK over the Christmas period.
Liberal opposition politicians say travel between the four nations is “inevitable” and that policymakers should acknowledge this when designing the rules.
Ministers warned on Wednesday that there was a “high likelihood” of a second wave but said another national lockdown was not the right way to go.
It comes amid reports that the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) believes that all of England will likely require a full lockdown by mid-December.
The Sun newspaper says scientific advisors have told the government that all areas of the country will see levels of infection surpassing those currently found in Tier 3 areas – effectively requiring a national lockdown.
Hospital admissions are expected to more than double by mid-November to 25,000, from the current total of 9,199.
Cabinet minister George Eustice told LBC radio on Wednesday morning: “There is a very high probability of a second wave and of course we’ve been experiencing rising incidents particularly in parts of the country, in the North West in particular, and in other major cities as well, right since September. We’ve been taking timely interventions to try and control that.”
But asked whether he thought another national lockdown was the right approach, he said: “I don’t think it is, and I think it’s wrong to say the approach we’re taking isn’t working.
“What we know is that we’re managing to hold, nationally, the R rate, at around 1.4 – that’s obviously higher than we’d like, we need to get it below 1 to get the virus under control, but we also know that if we hadn’t done the measures we’re doing, if we just had a laissez faire approach, it would be running at around two and a half to three – which is its natural infection rate.
“It’s not true to say the measures we are taking are not working, they are dampening the spread of the virus, but they’ve not yet got us into the position where we are reversing the incidence of the virus.”
The minister said the government would not “rule anything out”, but said his “fundamental point is there’s no point in having a lockdown” in places “where the incidence of the disease is very low”. He argued that this would “simply cause economic harm for no gain at all”.
The call for uniform restrictions, in a letter to the government from the Liberal Democrats and their Northern Irish counterparts the Alliance Party, says a “four-nations summit” between the devolved governments should be convened to agree a common plan. It was signed by the leaders of the UK, Scottish and Welsh Lib Dems, as well as the Alliance Party.
Sir Ed Davey, the UK Lib Dem leader, said: “No one country can manage this challenge in isolation. The fractured rules across the UK have already been incredibly difficult to piece together.”
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There may be reticence from the devolved nations to follow the UK government’s lead, however. The Scottish and Welsh governments have enjoyed strong support off the back of their handling of the crisis.
Responding to the letter calling for a uniform approach, a Downing Street spokesman said: “The PM has been clear of his ambition to ensure that people may celebrate Christmas as a family this year.
“That’s why we have introduced a range of measures in order to control the spread of the virus, reduce the R rate and save lives.”
Mr Eustice, the Environment Secretary, argued it is “far too early” to set out guidelines about Christmas.
“This is a rapidly developing situation and we are making judgments all the time about what restrictions might be needed and what’s appropriate to have as restrictions in a particular area,” he told BBC Radio 4.
A Scottish government spokesperson said the rules for Christmas would be based on the latest scientific advice at the time, while the Welsh government pointed to its “firebreak: restrictions which it said should clear a path to a less restricted Christmas by surpassing the virus.
The discussion comes ahead of the imposition of new lockdown rules across Nottingham and parts of its surrounding county. Rushcliffe, Gedling and Broxtowe are set to face the toughest restrictions from one minute past midnight on Thursday.
