Boris Johnson had hoped that announcing the end of England’s Covid curbs would be a moment of triumph; a chance to herald the glorious day lockdown is lifted forever and life can get back to normal.
But instead, our usually care-free prime minister appears fretful. Officials at Downing Street are anxious about the risks which lie ahead once controls end on 19 July. There is no talk of “freedom day” inside No 10.
The prime minister claimed only last week that the link between coronavirus infections and hospitalisations had been “severed”. But the government’s modelling shows the number of seriously ill people in hospital from Covid is set to soar again this summer.
If virus cases reach 100,000 a day in the weeks ahead as the government expects, then hospital admissions could reach 2,500 a day, says leading statistician Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter.
Johnson has talked for many months about the final big step in his roadmap out of lockdown being “irreversible” – promising an exhausted population the process was a one-way deal. Things can only get better, as it were.
Betterment no longer appears inevitable. What if some reversals become necessary if the virus lets rip once again? What if some restrictions need renewed? Not only would each change in policy be highly embarrassing for the PM, but it could also significantly weaken his authority.
A return to full lockdown anytime soon appears unthinkable for political reasons. But even small shifts and changes in guidance will be extremely difficult to manage. Labour, the Lib Dems and the more cautious scientists will shake their heads and say, “We told you so”.
More damaging still, a significant chunk of a weary public may decide to switch off. Will anyone really listen to what the prime minister has to say once he has ended all legal controls?
There is reason to believe Johnson will have to keep on tinkering with his public health messages. The legal requirement to wear a mask will be ditched in England on 19 July. But the rhetoric on mask-wearing has already shifted towards a more cautious approach.
In recent weeks cabinet ministers shared glee at no longer having to wear a face covering. Chancellor Rishi Sunak said at the end of last month he would stop donning one “as soon as possible”.
Now, Downing Street insists there will be clear guidelines and an “expectation” to carry on wearing face coverings on public transport and closed spaces.
There has been a subtle change in the big push to get workers back into the office. The government is lifting the advice to work from home where possible – but will recommend companies look at only a “gradual return” to workplaces over the summer.
Nightclubs will be allowed to open from 19 July without any legal requirement for clubbers to show Covid any certification. But venues owners will now be encouraged to use the NHS app in the same way it has been used at big pilot events.
Johnson also faces an enormous challenge in asking the public to stick with the concept of contact tracing and self-isolation. A poll by the Sunday Times found four in 10 people have already deleted the NHS Covid app.
The test and trace service, meanwhile, is said to be “panicking” as it scrambles to fill thousands of positions needed to deal with the imminent rise in Covid cases.
Each fresh rise in cases and hospitalisations will pile pressure on the PM in the weeks ahead. Opposition parties and public health officials asking why 19 July had to be a big bang moment, and why it had to come before Britain’s young adults were double-vaccinated.
Over the past six months, the success of the vaccination rollout has gifted Johnson some of the credibility and popularity lost at the height of the Covid crisis last year.
But the months ahead are fraught with difficulty. The prime minister will be asking the country to enjoy normality but remain vigilant for the virus – not unlike last year’s Matt Lucas parody of our leader offering mixed messages. Johnson’s authority and credibility are once again on the line.
