How his legal challenges play into his reputation as an entertainer.
When Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges in New York City two months ago, I tried to make sense of the political fallout with my colleague Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst. After poring over traditional markers about fund-raising and poll numbers, Nate mentioned another standard I’ve been thinking about over the past few days: Do Trump’s legal challenges make him more (or less) fun?
The question is awkward, as it suggests that the reasons some Americans are drawn to politicians are divorced from the seriousness of their office. But after Trump’s arraignment in federal court in Miami this week, I’m reminded of its importance. Nate wasn’t calling Trump fun as a self-evident fact, but rather identifying a set of voters who are attracted to showmanship and celebrity, are distinct from Trump’s base and follow politics only casually, if at all.
These voters matter for Trump’s 2024 campaign. Five percent of Trump’s voters in 2016 were disengaged from politics, a study by Democracy Fund, a pro-democracy group, found, and that is the type of margin that made a difference in such a close contest.
What distinguishes this group? Perhaps you have a friend who doesn’t care about politics, but can’t believe Trump said THAT. Or who recognizes the belittling nicknames he bestowed on Republicans in the 2016 primary, like “Little Marco” Rubio and “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, monikers that have stuck beyond Republican circles.
Such awareness is part of the effect of Trump’s celebrity and ability to command attention in ways no other candidate can. When Trump was at his political peak, that quality extended beyond his most ardent supporters to political outsiders who were attracted to his style — or were at least entertained by it.
2024 challenge
Ahead of the 2024 election, though, Trump’s crusade for supporters is failing to live up to his 2016 effort. At both of Trump’s arraignments, the number of people who came to the courthouse to defend him was smaller than expected. I’ve heard from Republican leaders — on Capitol Hill and in early voting states like Iowa — who say they have gotten fewer calls defending Trump than they anticipated. Even his return to CNN, in a widely criticized town hall last month, fell short of the ratings that Trump once delivered for cable networks.
Perhaps most important, Trump himself looks miserable. Even as Republican voters have largely rallied behind him, and even as he remains the front-runner to secure the Republican nomination despite his cascading legal problems, he appears to be wrestling with the reality that his freedom is in jeopardy.
“Some birthday,” he grumbled in Miami this week, ignoring a clear attempt by supporters to cheer him up on the week he turned 77.
According to my colleagues Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman, who have closely followed Trump’s political career, his speech in New Jersey after his arraignment brought down the mood of the party instead of jump-starting it. Trump turned what was meant to be a moment of defiance into a familiar litany of grievances. He invoked the tone of personal victimhood that Republicans have told me cost them votes in the 2022 midterms, when Trump focused on the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
It’s not just that the indictments distract Trump from laying out an affirmative vision for the country. They can also stop him from being the most free version of himself.
In a competitive Republican primary where another candidate can gain traction with the electorate (a possibility that remains to be seen), Trump’s inability to summon his freewheeling style is the type of difficult-to-quantify factor that can keep him from securing votes — and leave opportunities for opponents.
Trump can, of course, return anytime to the unconstrained approach that won him so much attention in 2016 and since. His Republican primary competitors are already dreading the amount of media coverage they will lose this summer to his indictments, my colleagues Jonathan Swan and Jonathan Weisman reported.
Yet these factors are part of the reason that many Democrats feel good about a potential matchup between President Biden and Trump. They argue that the electorate is simply exhausted with the chaos that he brought to national politics and that his legal troubles are a reminder of that aspect of his presidency. What was once fun (for some) no longer is.
More Trump news
Trump’s own aides and lawyers could become witnesses against him.
Judge Aileen Cannon is presiding over Trump’s case. Her experience as a judge in criminal cases has included just 14 trial days.
The trial will test the legal system’s ability to guard national secrets while guaranteeing a fair and open trial, Politico writes.
Groups like the Proud Boys have called for retribution, but large protests haven’t materialized outside Trump’s court appearances.
Trump tried to undermine the charges by lashing out at Biden.
Former Trump advisers are drawing up a plan to minimize the Justice Department’s independence from a future president.
THE LATEST NEWS
Business
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged after more than a year of increases. Officials say rates could rise twice more this year.
European Union legislators took a major step toward regulating artificial intelligence. They want to put guardrails on risky uses of the technology.
Retailers are fleeing downtown San Francisco. Read an interview with the mayor, who said she wants to turn offices into homes.
Google is offering a small payment to anyone who clicked a search link between 2006 and 2013 to settle a lawsuit over privacy violations.
International
The U.S. has quietly resumed diplomacy with Iran, negotiating to limit Iran’s nuclear program and free imprisoned Americans.
Boris Johnson misled British lawmakers over Covid lockdown parties, a damning report concluded. He quit Parliament last week after seeing an early version of the findings.
Some Republicans want to cut military aid to Ukraine at a critical moment in the war. Here’s what you need to know about the counteroffensive.
Pakistan is in political crisis. The military is cracking down on supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan as elections approach.
A prominent journalist in Guatemala was sentenced to prison. Critics say the trial is a sign that the country’s democracy is crumbling.
Climate
The U.S. is paying Russia billions for enriched uranium for nuclear power.
Global oil demand is likely to drop sharply over the next five years because of a shift to electric vehicles and other cleaner technologies.
Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota residents have been under the polluted, orange skies seen in New York last week.
South Korea is converting food waste, a major source of emissions, into fuel and fertilizer. See the process.
Other Big Stories
Southern Baptists voted to restrict women in church leadership, opening hundreds of churches to investigation and expulsions.
Francis Suarez, Miami’s mayor, entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
A morgue manager at Harvard Medical School sold body parts from donated cadavers and let buyers choose which parts they wanted, prosecutors say.
Starbucks workers in 21 states were told by their managers not to decorate for Pride Month, a union said.
Opinions
New York has a flooding problem. But proposed flood walls won’t solve it — and will block off beloved waterfront areas, Robert Yaro and Daniel Gutman write.
Here are columns by Pamela Paul on estimating time and Charles Blow on Florida’s anti-transgender legislation.
MORNING READS
Dawn to dusk: A photographer spent two years immersed in Brooklyn’s fast-growing Bangladeshi community.
Discovery: One of Saturn’s moons has all the ingredients for life, scientists found.
Coming of age: In Detroit, a debutante ball where young Black women feel like they belong.
The fixer: When he accidentally stole a Picasso, he knew who to call: Dad.
Adjust your expectations: Lots of couples skip wedding night sex.
Lives Lived: The editor Robert Gottlieb shaped novels, nonfiction books and magazine articles by a pantheon of acclaimed writers. He died at 92.
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
Beal’s murky future: The Washington Wizards and Bradley Beal will work together to trade him if the team decides to rebuild.
Messi’s M.L.S. limbo: Lionel Messi’s announcement last week that he plans to come to Inter Miami caught M.L.S. officials by surprise, a big reason he hasn’t yet finalized his contract.
ARTS AND IDEAS
Digital fatherhood: Dad influencers are finding big audiences on social media. The trend exploded during the pandemic, when many fathers were suddenly home all the time, and it has grown as men become more comfortable sharing the joys and struggles of parenting — often with dad jokes.
“Our goal was mostly to have fun,” said Kevin Laferriere, a comedian who posts about his home life on TikTok. “Then we heard from dads who said heartfelt things like, ‘I’m the only stay-at-home dad I know, and your content helped me feel seen.’”
More on culture
Cormac McCarthy, who died this week at 89, was part of a generation that expanded what American prose could do, The Times’s A.O. Scott writes.
Nine women filed a sexual assault lawsuit against Bill Cosby in Nevada. The state recently eliminated the statute of limitations for civil cases.
The executive director of American Ballet Theater resigned without explanation.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
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Squash spotted lanternflies, an invasive species. They’re back for another summer.
GAMES
Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words. Yesterday’s pangram was headwind.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.
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