The Conservative party risks losing up to 35 seats in the next general election if voters turn to tactical voting in a bit to remove from power, new figures reveal.
The Electoral Calculus poll, seen by The Independent, is the first major look at how tactical voting could shape the next general election.
It reveals Labour would pick up an extra 26 seats with Green and Liberal Democrat backers switching to the party, taking its number of MPs to 440.
The Liberal Democrats would pick up six additional seats from Labour and the Green Party, taking the party to a total of 32, while the SNP would take an extra three seats north of the border from Green voters tactically switching allegiance.
Polling guru Professor John Curtice told The Independent the Tories were already facing a parliamentary wipeout, but that tactical voting could drive Labour to a win that could eclipse even Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide victory.
“With an 18-point lead, it’s all over, we are just talking about adding to the scale of defeat, which, of course, is what happened in ’97,” Prof Curtice said.
The Electoral Calculus monthly poll-of-polls, shared exclusively with The Independent, shows Labour have a lead of 17 percentage points over the Conservatives.
This would translate into a substantial Labour majority in the House of Commons, with Labour winning 414 seats, the Conservatives 159 and the Liberal Democrats 26.
But if tactical voting takes place, Labour would win 26 more seats and the Liberal Democrats would six more, the survey suggests.
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The areas that could lose their Tory seats are dotted around the country and include Northeast Bedforshire, Central and north Devon, South east and north west Cambridgeshire, Great Yarmouth, Guildford, Romford and East Yorkshire.
Former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab’s constituency of Esher and Walton risks swinging to the Liberal Democrats, the poll suggests.
The survey, conducted with polling council member Find Out Now, will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street and Conservative Party headquarters just over a year before the election, expected in October 2024.
Electoral Calculus chief Martin Baxter said while 2019 saw tactical voting based on Brexit, “the next election is likely to see straightforward anti-Conservative tactical voting”.
“Many Conservative seats, particularly in the south of England, are at risk,” he told The Independent.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could gain upto 26 seats if tactical voting is used
Find Out Now boss Chris Holbrook said the poll showed “tactical voting is being used as a tool to punish the Conservatives”.
He added: “More broadly, this poll gives us an insight into how people are working within the First Past the Post system to express their dislike for the Tories.”
