Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are facing their worst ever result at the general election and could be left with just 130 seats, according to Professor Sir John Curtice.
The country’s top polling guru warned of the bleak situation faced by the Tories as they head into winter with the news dominated by infighting over the prime minister’s Rwanda deportation plan.
Prof Curtice said Mr Sunak’s party would be “lucky to win [many] more than 200 seats” and could see an even worse result if its dire poll ratings continued.
“If these patterns were to be replicated in a general election, the outcome for the Conservatives could be bleak indeed – maybe as few as 130 seats, the worst outcome in the party’s history,” he wrote for The Sunday Telegraph.
The outcome would be even worse than the 165 seats the Tories were left with in 1997, when the party, then led by John Major, was thumped by Tony Blair’s Labour – which won a landslide 179-seat majority.
With Labour enjoying a consistent polling lead of close to 20 points, Prof Curtice said voters appear to have “stopped listening” to the Tories on the big issues.
He warned Mr Sunak that his recent anti-immigration push had “not gone well”. The elections expert said it looked like the Rwanda bill “could divide the party just as [Theresa] May’s ill-fated Brexit deal did in 2019”.
Rishi Sunak is battling to persuade Tory MPs not to rebel on his Rwanda policy
On the major split currently looming in response to Mr Sunak’s plans, Prof Curtice wrote: “Divided parties rarely prosper at the polls. In pursuing their disagreements with Mr Sunak over immigration, Tory MPs should realise they are potentially playing with fire.”
He added: “Even though the polls have repeatedly indicated that the government’s Rwanda policy is relatively popular – at least among those who voted Conservative in 2019 – the first polls since this week’s developments suggest they also are unlikely to move the electoral dial.”
He continued: “We should not be surprised. Although many 2019 Conservative voters are unhappy about the level of legal and ‘illegal’ immigration, those who feel that immigration has gone up a lot are not especially likely to say they will not vote Conservative again.”
There is speculation at Westminster that Mr Sunak may be forced into a snap election in the early part of 2024 if he struggles to get his Rwanda bill through parliament.
But cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted that Mr Sunak’s government is “not contemplating” holding an early general election if the Rwanda bill is voted down. Asked if it was an option, the senior Sunak ally told Sky News: “No, we’re not contemplating that.”
Some Tory MPs are said to have discussed trying to bring back Boris Johnson
A group of unnamed Tory MPs have told The Mail on Sunday that they would like to get rid of Mr Sunak – with some even keen to bring back Boris Johnson as leader.
Dubbed the “pasta plotters”, a small group of anti-Sunak MPs and strategists were said to have met at an Italian restaurant to plan “an Advent calendar of s***” for the current Tory leader over the Rwanda issue this December.
“Whatever you feel about him, one thing no one can question is [Mr Johnson]’s effectiveness as a campaigner,” one red-wall MP told the newspaper. But with Mr Johnson out of parliament, the so-called pasta plotters are said to be uncertain who could realistically replace Mr Sunak.
Damian Green – chair of the One Nation wing – offered a warning to any right-wing rebels pouncing on the Rwanda issue as a way to get rid of Mr Sunak.
“Anyone who thinks that what the Conservative Party or the country needs is a change of prime minister is either mad, or malicious, or both,” he told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg.
Mr Green added: “It is a very, very small number doing that [plotting to oust Mr Sunak].”
