There is a good chance that Rishi Sunak will call an earlier-than-expected general election in the spring, the Conservative Party chair has revealed.
Richard Holden said there was still a “one-third” chance that the prime minister will hold an election in May, despite expectations that No 10 wants to wait until the autumn.
It comes as a new poll reveals Sir Keir Starmer is the preferred choice for PM in 390 seats in England, Wales and Scotland – while Mr Sunak is voters’ first choice in just four seats.
And Mr Sunak has been branded “weak and desperate” after Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser Dominic Cummings claimed that he and Mr Sunak held top-secret meetings about returning as a No 10 strategist ahead of the election.
Despite the uphill battle faced by the Tories, the chair said the party could be prepared to launch an election campaign in just months – shortly after chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s 6 March Budget.
“The chance of a May election is about a third. It is more likely to be at the back end of the year. My job is to be ready whenever it happens,” Mr Holden told the Mail on Sunday.
The cabinet minister also hinted that fresh personal tax cuts are in the March Budget, as he played down reports the PM and chancellor could scrap inheritance tax.
Asked about the possibility of death taxes being ditched, he said: “What you want is tax cuts which affect as many people as possible.”
Mr Sunak will be accused of ‘bottling’ election if he waits until autumn
Mr Holden claimed the Conservatives could still pull off a shock victory in 2024 because the party’s base remained unconvinced by the Labour leader. He said traditional Tory voters could return “because the threat of Starmer – a man who we do not know what he stands for – is just so great.”
Despite the possibility of going early, Tory election strategist Isaac Levido has “pencilled in” a likely election for 14 November, according to the Sunday Times.
As election fever mounts, a major new seat-by-seat analysis by Focaldata for the Best for Britain campaign group found that Mr Starmer is beating Mr Sunak in hundreds of constituencies on the question of who makes the best PM.
Nationally, the Labour leader is the ahead of his Tory rival by 32 per cent to 22 per cent. Only Braintree, Castle Point, Clacton and North Bedfordshire put Mr Sunak ahead of Mr Starmer and undecideds.
The poll also shows that 61 per cent of voters want an early general election by at least May, with only 17 per cent hoping the PM waits until autumn to call the vote.
The Tories claimed that Labour would pile £2,200 a year on working families from the opposition’s promise to invest £28bn in green jobs. But a Labour spokesperson said the claims are “total garbage and a desperately absurd claim from a Tory Party which has increased taxes on working people”.
Mr Starmer says voters will decide ‘Britain’s future’ in 2024
Meanwhile, the PM is said to have asked Mr Johnson’s former chief aide for advice as he pushed for a “secret deal” with Mr Cummings to help the Tories win when Britain goes to the polls.
Mr Cummings told the Sunday Times that he urged Mr Sunak to abandon his cautious economic approach, hold an emergency budget, settle the NHS strikes and double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
He also reportedly advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights as part of the Rwanda deportation plan.
No 10 has not denied Mr Cummings’s account of a secret meeting, but said no job offer was made. A Downing Street source said: “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered.”
Elsewhere, Brexit campaign financier Arron Banks has said he would seek to raise £10m from defecting Tory donors for Reform UK if Nigel Farage makes a comeback to lead the party.
“One of the things about Nigel… is he can cut through to the red-wall seats in a way that Richard Tice doesn’t,” the Leave.EU co-founder told the Sunday Times. “My view is we could raise £10m to kick Reform into the next league – that’s obviously a Nigel-dependent thing.”
