Labour has a 99 per cent chance of winning the next general election in a bruising blow to the Tories, Sir John Curtice has said.
The polling guru said the chances of the Conservatives being able to turn around their chances were small, and added that “the Labour party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons”.
The leading psephologist’s warning to Politico will pille yet more pressure on beleaguered Conservatives following the resignation of two cabinet ministers who are stepping down at the next election.
Robert Halfon unexpectedly quit as skills, apprenticeships and higher education minister, while James Heappey followed through on his stated intention to step down as armed forces minister ahead of exiting parliament at the general election.
His departure means 63 Conservative MPs have said publicly they are either standing down from parliament or not contesting their current seat at the general election.
Sir John Curtice is Britain’s leading pollster
The resignations follow a series of appalling opinion poll ratings for the Conservatives, most recently culminating in the Telegraph-Savanta poll tracker which put the Tories at their lowest rating since the aftermath of Liz Truss’ disastorous mini-budget which forced her from office, on 24 percent.
Labour are consistently holding a 20 point-lead, adding to the speculation that the party will storm to victory and form the next government.
As the House of Commons goes into recess, Rishi Sunak is gearing up for his biggest challenge yet as the local council elections loom on May 2.
His party are set to face mass losses as the country kicks back against depleted local council funding, the cost of living and discontent with the ruling party.
Mr Sunak launched his local election campaign earlier in the week, attacking Labour leader Keir Starmer for “arrogantly” taking voters for granted and “assuming he can just stroll into No 10”.
But a recent poll by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have said Conservative losses are “inevitable” and if the party repeat their “poor performance of 2023, when the NEV put them below 30%, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election.”
Mr Sunak has urged unity amongst his colleagues in the face of the poor surveys and Tory infighting.
Some backbench MPs have privately warned that a dire performance during the locals could force another a leadership election – or push the prime minister toward calling an early general election.
