Could Labour lose Gorton and Denton? Here’s what the polls say

There are just a few weeks to go until the crunch by-election in Greater Manchester’s Gorton and Denton constituency, which looks set to be one of Labour’s biggest tests to date.

All the candidates for the major parties have been declared, setting the stage for an intense campaigning period in the southwest Manchester neighbourhood.

Labour has named Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia as its candidate for the seat as the party attempts to defend its place and avoid a damaging defeat.

Meanwhile, Reform has announced GB News presenter Matt Goodwin as its choice, going against the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, a plumber and local councillor.

These were the three leading parties in the constituency in 2024, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats trailing behind George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain.

Remaining a Labour stronghold in some form since 1974, it would be a historic loss for Labour to cede Gorton and Denton to either Reform or the Greens on 26 February.

Here’s what the polls suggest:

Current polling is a mixed picture, but does reveals one definite thing: Labour will have a harder fight on their hands in the constituency than ever before.

Most polls now put Reform ahead of the incumbent party, but only by a few points on average. Meanwhile the Green Party’s vote lags behind slightly, but pollsters predict could shoot up if tactical voting is taken into account.

Here is an average of the current polls:

Two of the current main MRP polls put Reform ahead of Labour: Electoral Calculus, at 32 per cent to Labour’s 22.6, and Britain Predicts, at 32 per cent to Labour’s much higher 26.

Meanwhile, Polling Report predicts that Labour will hold the seat with 35.26 per cent of the vote, while Reform gets 27.65.

Here is a breakdown of each:

None currently put the Greens ahead, however they are calculated based on previous results and demographics, and so do not take factors like tactical voting into account.

This could be a major factor for Zack Polanski’s party, with Labour MPs recently briefing The Independent privately that they expect the Greens to benefit from Labour’s poor national popularity and a tactical anti-Reform vote at the ballot box.

Reorganised as Denton and Reddish in 1983 (and becoming Gorton and Denton in 2024), the seat has only been represented by two MPs since then, both Labour. This was first Andrew Bennett, and – since 2005 – the outgoing Andrew Gwynne.

Labour retained a sizeable 13,413 majority in at the 2024 general election, with 50.8 per cent of the vote. However, this was down substantially from the 2019 result, when the party held a 22,175 majority and 67.2 per cent vote share.

Reform came second, with 14.1 per cent of the vote – a 9.2 point increase on 2019 – while the Greens came third, with 13.2 per cent (up 10.7 points). The turnout was also down from 61.7 per cent to 46.8.

This may explain Labour’s 16.4 point reduction, and indicates a trend many Labour MPs are concerned will continue in February.

The current polling for the seat confirms that it has become a much harder contest for Labour, vying with rising support for Reform while the Green Party also digs deeper into the incumbent party’s voter base.