DES MOINES — Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign has quietly rolled back hundreds of thousands of dollars of television ad reservations in New Hampshire and South Carolina in recent weeks and redirected the funds to buy more ads in Iowa instead.
Mr. Biden’s campaign and a super PAC supporting him are on pace to churn through nearly $9 million on television ads in Iowa ahead of the caucuses on Monday, while spending virtually nothing so far in the other three states that vote in February. Mr. Biden has also planted himself in the state this week, seizing on the Senate impeachment trial and President Trump’s rally in Des Moines on Thursday night to try to convince voters that Republicans are scared to run against him.
The movement of money and energy into Iowa is a sign of not only the opportunity that Mr. Biden’s campaign now sees here — he sits in second or first place in most polls — but also the acute risk for him, according to interviews with Democratic strategists, Biden fund-raisers and allies.
In Iowa, Mr. Biden is not just chasing votes and delegates. He’s chasing cash.
A disappointing finish in the state, where there are four candidates bunched in the top tier in polls, could dampen his fund-raising at a crucial juncture. Candidates need resources to build up their operations in delegate-rich Super Tuesday states like California, where campaigning and ad rates can be prohibitively expensive and early voting begins next week.
Allies say the chief danger is that a fourth-place finish — or even a third, depending on who is ahead of him and by how much — could jeopardize Mr. Biden’s financial prospects, especially in a Democratic Party with a notoriously skittish political establishment. In recent weeks, Mr. Biden has begun to consolidate the traditional donor class, but his online money operation was the weakest of the four leading candidates for much of 2019, making him particularly vulnerable to falling behind financially if he stumbles early.
Such a result could also deliver the money advantage to rivals with more reliable and passionate digital followings — none more so than Senator Bernie Sanders.
“We all know that momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s not just political momentum, it’s financial momentum,” said Rufus Gifford, a former finance director for President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign who recently signed on with Mr. Biden.
For months, Mr. Biden’s campaign has sought to play down Iowa’s significance, arguing that its overwhelmingly white electorate does not reflect the full strength of his diverse political coalition. He has maintained an almost unassailable lead with black voters, in particular.
But by the time that South Carolina, Mr. Biden’s strongest early state, votes on Feb. 29, there will be only a few days before a rush of Super Tuesday contests, headlined by California and Texas, will be decided — too late for an infusion of cash to make the most impact.
And awaiting whoever emerges from the first four contests in the multibillionaire Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, who has already spent or reserved an unprecedented $275 million-plus in advertising in the Super Tuesday states and beyond.
Among Mr. Biden’s supporters, “well enough” seem to be the watchwords — about both Iowa and his campaign’s overall finances. Multiple officials leaned on the same phrase.
“This is not going to be a money contest. What’s important is having the money to compete,” said Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to Mr. Biden. “And we do.”
Of course, if the risks of an underperformance are a cash shortage, then the upside of winning could be taking command of the contest.
“If we can win Iowa, I think he’s going to be the nominee,” said Steve Schale, the executive director of the pro-Biden super PAC, Unite the Country. “He’s got a shot at it. Why not take a shot? Clearly the campaign’s doing that, as well.”
The financial significance of Iowa should become even clearer on Friday, when all the presidential campaigns must release their full financial reports for the end of 2019. Mr. Biden’s report is expected to show him in a more precarious cash position compared with his three leading rivals, Mr. Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind.
Though Mr. Biden’s fund-raising picked up in the fourth quarter, when he raised $22.7 million, he had begun October in a deep financial hole: $14.4 million behind Mr. Buttigieg in terms of cash in the bank, $16.7 million behind Ms. Warren and $24.7 million behind Mr. Sanders.
In fact, even if Mr. Biden had spent nothing in the final three months of 2019, the $9 million in cash he entered October with plus the $22.7 million he raised in those months would still be less than the $33.7 million Mr. Sanders had on hand to start October. (The Vermont senator then out-raised everyone in the contest in the fourth quarter, bringing in an additional $34.5 million.)
Three months ago, Mr. Biden dropped his longstanding opposition to having a super PAC in part to compete with his better-funded opponents. Donors to that super PAC will be disclosed for the first time on Friday.
With two major rivals from neighboring states competing in the New Hampshire primary — Mr. Sanders of Vermont and Ms. Warren of Massachusetts — the Biden campaign appears to have zeroed in on Iowa as a chance to score an early victory. The campaign has aired virtually nothing so far in any of the three other states that will vote in February — New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — as of this week, according to data from Advertising Analytics.
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Mr. Schale, the super PAC strategist, who cannot legally coordinate with the campaign, said he was following the signals of the official Biden operation in determining that “the immediate, highest and best” use of the super PAC funds was “to lean in in Iowa because that’s what the campaign was doing.”
Despite the nearly $9 million in combined spending, the Biden campaign and super PAC have still been outspent on the Iowa airwaves by Mr. Sanders, Mr. Buttigieg and the billionaire financier Tom Steyer.
In the interviews, Mr. Biden’s fund-raisers and campaign officials mostly projected confidence about the campaign’s financial condition. The exit of well-funded rivals like Senators Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey, for instance, has helped the Biden campaign consolidate support among the traditional donor class.
“As time goes on, everybody is coming to the conclusion: To beat Trump, you’re going need to someone who can go across the various groups, and Biden seems to be that guy,” said Marc Lasry, a billionaire Wall Street hedge fund manager and co-owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, who had previously raised money for Ms. Harris and now supports Mr. Biden. “The nervousness that some people may have had at the beginning is gone.”
But there are signs that his online operation still lags his leading rivals. Ms. Warren’s campaign has announced a $3.5 million goal for the final five days of the month, while Mr. Biden’s campaign has told supporters it was trying to raise $1 million in the final week. At the same time, Mr. Sanders trumpeted taking in $1.3 million in under a day after news broke this week that a Democratic super PAC was attacking him.
Online money is particularly important now that the primary season has arrived because there are far fewer days for candidates to devote to holding fund-raisers when elections come almost weekly. There is only one week between Iowa and New Hampshire, for instance, but Mr. Buttigieg is planning to squeeze in New York fund-raisers next Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, according to invitations obtained by The New York Times. Mr. Biden has a fund-raising trip of his own to New York scheduled right after New Hampshire, including with some former top financiers for former opponents.
Some of Mr. Biden’s top aides, including his campaign manager, Greg Schultz, and the campaign chairman, Steve Ricchetti, have been imploring bundlers to gather as much money as possible, even if the former vice president himself cannot attend events, according to people familiar with the plans.
Earlier in January, Mr. Biden’s campaign gathered members of his national finance committee for a meeting in Des Moines, where Mr. Schultz and others briefed them on the state of the race.
“The overall message was we feel like we’re in a good spot but want to continue to raise more money,” said Denise Bauer, a fund-raiser and former ambassador to Belgium who has spent recent weeks campaigning for Mr. Biden in Iowa. “That’s the obvious thing.”
The Biden super PAC has actually outspent the campaign on the airwaves in Iowa — but that money buys far fewer ads than the campaign’s cash can because federal law allows political candidates to buy advertising at the lowest available rates.
The disparity is jarring, with the Biden super PAC paying four times as much for the same ads as the campaigns, blunting the advantage of having a super PAC.
Mr. Sanders, for instance, paid $375 for 30-second ads on the 6 a.m. news on KCCI in Des Moines last week; the Biden super PAC paid $1,800. To air one ad during the Grammys, Mr. Sanders paid $1,350 and the Biden super PAC paid $5,500.
“The cost difference is real,” Mr. Schale said. “At the same time, it is the most obvious gap we can help fill.”
The super PAC has been characterized by some internal tensions over its direction, according to people familiar with the matter, as it has leaned heavily on television ads. Asked about those discussions, Mr. Schale said only, “We’re an organization that has robust debates.”
John Morgan, a Florida fund-raiser who has hosted Mr. Biden at his home, acknowledged that Mr. Biden would most likely be outspent in the coming weeks, particularly by Mr. Sanders.
“Many people win the Daytona 500 on fumes, and many people lose badly with a full tank of gas,’’ he said. “That’s the nature of auto racing and that’s the same nature of politics. All he needs is enough gas to win. And he has it and he will.”
Source: Elections - nytimes.com
