California special election: Republicans take back Katie Hill’s House seat

Republican Mike Garcia has beat Democrat Christy Smith in the special election to fill the seat of the former US representative Katie Hill, who resigned amid scandal in late 2019.

After a bitter political battle complicated and constrained by the pandemic, Garcia’s win was a blow for Democrats who in 2018 had secured the suburban Los Angeles district for the first time in since 1990. But the candidates will soon have a rematch. Garcia will serve only five months before the seat is up for a vote again in November.

The circumstances of Hill’s resignation – she quit amid allegations that she had an affair with a staffer, and after private photos of her had been published online without her consent – had brought national attention to the race. Donald Trump, who endorsed Garcia and alleged that the election was “rigged” because of the opening of a new voting center in the district, also ensured that the race was closely watched, especially by Democrats who believed it would be a referendum on the president.

In the election based almost entirely on mailed-in ballots amid stay-at-home orders due to the coronavirus pandemic, the full results likely won’t be clear for days. Officials will accept ballots postmarked by election day, even if they arrive up to three days later.

Still, Smith conceded on Wednesday afternoon as she trailed Garcia by 11 points in the results reported so far. “While it’s critical that we ensure every vote is counted and recorded, we believe that the current tally shows Mike Garcia is the likely victor in the 12 May special election,” she said in her concession statement. “That said, this is only one step in this process, and I look forward to having a vigorous debate about the issues in the upcoming November 2020 election.”

As victory appeared assured, Garcia said his campaign’s “message of lower taxes and ensuring we don’t take liberal Sacramento dysfunction to Washington prevailed”.

This is Garcia’s first time taking public office. He ran unencumbered by a voting record, on a typically conservative platform. Though Democrats tried to paint him as a mini-Trump, Garcia more closely aligns with a new guard of young, moderate Republicans the party has sent out to woo the typically blue state. “California Republicans have to learn to adapt to the local climate,” said Bill Whalen, a Republican campaign strategist based in Sacramento. Garcia’s victory may not guarantee he’ll win a rematch against Smith in November, but it does give him a leg up, Whalen said.

Smith, a state assembly member, lost despite earning the endorsements of Barack Obama and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Hill’s unpopularity in the district, post-scandal, was a hurdle. Prior to the election, the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the race from “lean Democratic” to a “tossup” as the pandemic shut down traditional campaigning through door-knocking and town halls. Despite the challenges of campaigning, Democrats are still hopeful about Smith’s chances in the general election. “The electorate will be very different then,” said Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic strategist based in Los Angeles. “And I still think Smith will have a strong chance.”

Special elections are usually plagued with low voter turnout, though early numbers indicated that more people voted in this election than expected. All registered voters were automatically mailed a ballot, making this election a test case for November. California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, recently announced that all Californians would have the option to mail in their ballots during the general election, amid uncertainty over how long the coronavirus crisis will limit people’s ability to safely leave their homes.

But it is wise to avoid projecting too much about the November elections based on this race, said Paul Mitchell, with the campaign research firm Political Data Inc. “To do so would be like predicting the championship based on the results of two-on-two basketball game before the finals,” Mitchell said. He expects the same district will have 80% turnout in November, compared with less than half of that in the special election.

According to the data available so far, 30% of registered Democrats and 46% of registered Republicans in the district voted from home. More than 103,000 mailed in ballots, and about 4,200 ballots cast in person have been counted so far. Local officials said in-person voting should be an option for those who wanted to register and vote provisionally the same day, as well as people with disabilities who need assistance or adaptive devices to vote.

The president, who has previously disparaged efforts to increase voting opportunities, criticized Newsom’s decision to keep restaurants and bars closed while installing “a voting both [sic] system in a highly Democrat area (supposed to be mail in ballots only) because our great candidate, @MikeGarcia2020, is winning by a lot. CA25 Rigged Election!”

Traditionally, older, white, and Republican voters are overrepresented in special elections, Mitchell said. Younger and minority voters, who lean Democratic, are more likely to vote in larger numbers in November.

Although California is checkered with some red districts, it had been nearly 20 years since a Republican picked up a congressional seat in the state.

The California election was among two races being closely watched this week as preludes to the general election in November, when many states will move to mail-in voting amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In Wisconsin, the Republican Tom Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by Trump, easily won a special congressional election on Tuesday in a heavily conservative, rural Wisconsin district. But Democrats are likely to watch his margin of victory – and consider it evidence of that party’s gains if Tiffany’s opponent Tricia Zunker performs better than the 20-point defeat the Democrats faced in district in 2018. Preliminary results show Tiffany leading by 14 points.

“For Trump to win re-election, red areas have to get redder to balance out blue areas getting bluer,“ said the Wisconsin Democratic party spokeswoman, Courtney Beyer.

But Tiffany dismissed the argument. “Any time you lose by 14 points, I don’t think that’s a moral victory,” he said. “This is a decisive victory here.”

Agencies contributed reporting