UK Politics

Raising income tax or slashing public spending is the only way Rachel Reeves can balance her Budget, top economists have warned, after grim news on a key economic indicator left her with an extra £20bn in what was already a sizeable black hole.The chancellor knew she would be facing a difficult Budget on 26 November, with a gap in the finances of between £30bn and £40bn, but she has been dealt a further blow with the decision by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to downgrade its productivity forecast – a move that was first revealed by The Independent – which means she must find a further £20bn.Now, the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that trying to balance the books by raising lots of smaller taxes, instead of breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase income tax, will “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.It comes after the chancellor said she also wants to increase her fiscal headroom above the current £10bn to allow the Treasury to deal with economic shocks, after Donald Trump’s tariffs and the ongoing impact of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East left her short following last year’s Budget.Rachel Reeves has had more bad news with the OBR set to downgrade its productivity forecast More

British nationals in Jamaica have been urged to register their presence with the Foreign Office, as the island’s strongest storm on record closes in. It comes after the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) set up a crisis centre ready to help Britons on the Caribbean island. Meanwhile, the Royal Navy ship HMS Trent is already in the region on stand-by.While the government does not keep a record of the number of British nationals overseas, around 5,000 are thought to be on the island. The FCDO are warning of ‘catastrophic’ flash floods and landslides More

Reform plans to “dramatically” cut the number of civil servants if they win the next election, the party has said, despite the lack of government experience within the party. Danny Kruger, who defected from the Tories last month, told a Westminster press conference that the party would not renew the leases on a number of government buildings, including those housing the Home Office and the Department for Transport. He promised that the growth of the service in recent years will be “reversed” and pledged a “more concentrated government machine”, pledging to overhaul the code that governs Whitehall work. The East Wiltshire MP, who defected to Mr Farage’s party in September, was assigned the role of leading Reform’s preparations for government. The MP, who served as a shadow minister but has never held a cabinet role, told the press conference: “If we win the election we will have legislation drafted and ready to go, a new ministerial code and civil service code drafted, orders in council prepared, people lined up for key appointments, and it will all start on day one.”He said that they were putting the “civil service on notice that under a Reform government we expect the headcount to fall dramatically”. He also said that his party “don’t come with a chainsaw or a wrecking ball”, adding: “We respect the institutions of the country, the armed forces, the police, the church, the judiciary and we respect the professionalism and expertise of the people who work in them, so long as those people respect in their turn the right of parliament, and of ministers to make the rules they work by.”Danny Kruger and Reform’s head of policy Zia Yusuf speaking at a press conference More

Jeremy Corbyn will appear in a north London pantomime in his constituency this Christmas, playing the “Wizard of Oz-lington” in a Wicked-inspired performance. Wicked Witches: A Popular Panto, which will play at the Pleasance Theatre near Caledonian Road, will be “fun, inclusive and a brilliant celebration of creativity”, the Islington North MP said. Meanwhile, the theatre said Mr Corbyn’s cameo will add a “touch of local sparkle”. Corbyn outside rehearsal for the show More

Hundreds of asylum seekers are set to be moved into military barracks, even if it costs more than using hotels, as ministers scramble to find a way to end the migrant accommodation crisis. The Home Office has confirmed that Crowborough Training Camp in East Sussex and Cameron Barracks in Inverness will be used temporarily to house a total of around 900 men under the plan. Downing Street suggested on Tuesday that the scheme would be worth it to help quell public discontent, even if it costs more than using hotels. Asked if the costs of using military sites will be higher than using hotels, the prime minister’s official spokesman said: “The costs will vary site by site, but our priorities are security and fairness.”Pushed later on whether this meant ministers thought barracks were a better option even if costs were higher, the spokesman said that the matter is “also a core issue of public confidence. The public is very clear it does not want asylum seekers housed in hotels, and neither does the government.”Small-boat migrants will start being housed in the military accommodations by the end of next month. Officials are also working with the Ministry of Defence to identify other disused sites that can be used in the coming months in a bid to get a grip on the asylum accommodation crisis. There are also plans to build pop-up modular units, which have previously been used to tackle prison overcrowding, on some of the sites.The plans come as Labour ramps up its bid to move tens of thousands of migrants out of hotels after huge controversy surrounding their use. On Monday, a parliamentary committee described the policy of using hotels to house asylum seekers as “failed, chaotic and expensive”, and accused the Home Office of squandering billions of pounds as a result of incompetence. Around 900 asylum seekers are set to be housed on military sites in Scotland and East Sussex More

Theresa May has delivered a thinly veiled rebuke to Robert Jenrick after he launched an attack on British judges earlier this month.In a wide-ranging critique on the direction of her party, the former Conservative prime minister warned against using “populism” for a “short-term political end”. She challenged the Tories’ approach to net zero, the judiciary and human rights, urging the party to show leadership instead.And she appeared to take aim at Conservative shadow justice secretary Mr Jenrick who criticised what he called “activist judges” in immigration courts in a speech to the Tory conference earlier this month.The former prime minister called on her party to show ‘responsible leadership’ More

Rachel Reeves could be facing a larger-than-expected black hole in the nation’s finances as she prepares for next month’s Budget amid reports that the fiscal watchdog could be about to downgrade the UK’s productivity performance.The BBC reported on Tuesday that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to downgrade the UK’s performance on productivity, with fears that it could represent a further £20bn gap in the pubic finances. This followed revelations by The Independent in September that the chancellor was bracing herself for bad news on productivity which in turns hits economic growth.It comes less than a month before the chancellor’s Budget, due on 26 November, with the OBR set to deliver their final draft forecast in the coming days. But Ms Reeves has doubled down on blaming Brexit for the country’s economic woes as she was pushed on the latest news this morning on a trip to Saudi Arabia.Fresh data compounds the dilemma facing Rachel Reeves as she prepares for a challenging November Budget More

Labour has fallen to its lowest rating in a YouGov poll, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party almost level with the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. The new poll, commissioned by The Times, found that just 17 per cent of voters back Labour, the same number that would vote for Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, while Reform UK continue to surge ahead on 27 per cent. The Greens sit at 16 per cent, the party’s highest level of support, closely followed by the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent.It comes as Sir Keir has been warned that he could struggle to turn the party’s fortunes around following last week’s defeat in a Welsh by-election. Labour faces threats from the left and the right, with concerns about voters being lost to Reform or the surging Greens. Tuesday’s figures represent the lowest rating that Labour have recorded in YouGov figures, and show support for the Greens is surging among younger voters. The data suggests that 40 per cent of people aged 18-24 currently intend to vote for Zack Polanski’s party, with Labour lagging in second at 21 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats in third on 13 per cent. Labour’s popularity has dropped significantly since Keir Starmer was elected last year More