UK Politics

Sign up to our free fortnightly newsletter from The Independent’s Race Correspondent Nadine WhiteSign up to our free fortnightly newsletter The Race ReportThe Tories appeared to be on the brink of catastrophe in the general election as a new poll gave Nigel Farage’s Reform UK a three-point lead.The Whitestone poll for Reach plc newspapers put Reform on 21 per cent, the Tories on just 18 per cent while Labour maintained a clear lead on 38 per cent.The devastating result for Mr Sunak means that the position of leader of the opposition, which Mr Farage covets, appears to be wide open.However, according to Electoral Calculus in a general election this would leave the Conservatives on a mere 50 seats, give Reform 29 but the Lib Dems would be the official opposition with 74 seats.Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has sought to distance himself from his campaigners’ comments (Paul Marriott/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailMost expensive thing boughtThese days it’s probably my Arsenal season ticket – but well worth it. After 18 years in the same seats it’s not something I’m going to give up.Memory of a fightIn 1980, my friend Graham being punched and kicked by some local kids for being gay. I jumped in alongside our friend Mark so all three of us ended up getting beaten up.Do you pray?I don’t pray, but I think faith is valuable. It’s a place where people can invest a lot of themselves and find comfort, hope and a sense of security. I value that a lot.Biggest regretNot taking the opportunity to tell my dad I loved him in his final moments. That’s a regret that will stay with me.My only major fears are around my kids – I think most parents will relate. I worry about their privacy, we do everything we can to give them the best chance of an independent life uninterrupted by my work.The big hope for all of us in the Labour Party is that our message for change has resonated with the British people, and we get the chance to change our country in government.Funniest momentDefinitely my mum and dad bringing our dog to Buckingham Palace when I was being knighted. The image of this massive Great Dane sticking its head out of the car window to a bemused security guard will always bring a smile to my face.How do you feel about your parents not seeing you become PM?It’s not easy. My mum passed away a few weeks before I became an MP. I know she’d be beaming now.Book that inspiresJo Cox’s book, More In Common. As she so eloquently puts it, we have more in common than that which divides us. We have to get past the politics of division, this book is my north star for that.Favourite poemAt the D-Day commemorations in Portsmouth a couple of weeks ago, the poet Tomos Roberts recited a poem ‘The People Who Gave Us Today’ which was an incredibly powerful moment.Favourite musicWhen I started at Leeds University it was an explosion of culture, discovering artists like Orange Juice and Edwyn Collins. But I do need to mention Stormzy’s most recent album which is a brilliant piece of work.What can you play on the flute most easily?My favourite was playing quartets – particularly Mozart, although I wouldn’t fancy my chances these days.Music that makes you cry Beethoven, Piano Concerto No.5, 2nd movement – when the piano comes in. It’s the music me and Vic walked into at our wedding, and will always remind me of that special day.Sports heroThierry Henry, always.I try not to define myself by people in the past but it’s hard to look past Nelson Mandela. Anyone aspiring to lead a country can learn from the way he conducted himself as a leader.I hate losing.I hate losing. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailKeir Starmer has laid out his political philosophy and goals which echo the last Labour leader to end a long period in the political wilderness: Tony Blair.As he prepares for what now seems to be an inevitable landslide victory, Sir Keir said: “I want people to feel ‘Thank God… our country is now better, and I feel better off.’”His words were not far from the D:Ream song which propelled Blair to victory: “Things can only get better.”In the second part of his exclusive interview with The Independent, Sir Keir made clear that he has sought Blair’s advice on transitioning from opposition to government but not necessarily on policy. Drawing the veil from his political philosophy he spoke about:How he would do a deal with TrumpWhy he believes the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) is wrong but refuses to rule out tax risesWhere he and Tony Blair disagreeWhy he thinks redistribution is a good thingWhy he really stuck around in Corbyn’s shadow cabinetRead part one of Sir Keir’s interview with The Independent here, where he reveals his innermost thoughts about his family, regrets with his father and homophobic attacks on his boyhood friend.As he prepares for next week’s election, Sir Keir said: “I want people to feel ‘Thank God… our country is now better, and I feel better off’” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Anti-immigration British politician Nigel Farage on Friday condemned a worker for his Reform U.K. party who suggested migrants crossing the English Channel in boats should be used for “target practice.”Party activist Andrew Parker was heard suggesting army recruits with guns should be posted to “just shoot” migrants landing on beaches, in recordings made by an undercover reporter from Channel 4. He also used a racial slur about Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is of Indian descent. Another campaign worker called the LGBT pride flag “degenerate.”Reform U.K. said it had cut ties with the two men. Farage said he was “dismayed” by the comments and called some of the language “reprehensible.”“The appalling sentiments expressed by some in these exchanges bear no relation to my own views, those of the vast majority of our supporters or Reform U.K.,” he said in a statement.Sunak said the slur used by Parker “hurts and it makes me angry,” especially since his two daughters had to hear it. He said Farage “has some questions to answer.”“As prime minister, but more importantly as a father of two young girls, it’s my duty to call out this corrosive and divisive behavior,” Sunak said Friday on the campaign trail in northeast England.Reform is running candidates in hundreds of seats for Britain’s July 4 election, aiming to siphon off voters from the dominant Conservative and Labour parties. It has disowned several candidates after media reported on their far-right ties or offensive comments.Speaking at a campaign event on Thursday, Farage said that “one or two people let us down and we let them go.” But he said in other cases of criticized comments, “in most cases they’re just speaking like ordinary folk.”Farage, a right-wing populist and ally of Donald Trump, shook up the election campaign when he announced in early June that he was running.He has sought to focus the election debate on immigration, particularly the tens of thousands of people each year who try to reach the U.K. in small boats across the English Channel.The migrants – mostly asylum-seekers fleeing poverty and conflict – account for a small portion of overall immigration to Britain. But the struggle to stop the hazardous crossings has become an emotive political issue.Opponents have long accused Farage of fanning racist attitudes toward migrants and condemned what they call his scapegoat rhetoric.Farage, 60, is making his eighth attempt to be elected to Parliament after seven failed bids. Polls suggest he has a comfortable lead in the race to represent the seaside town of Clacton-on-Sea.While Reform is likely to win only a handful of seats, at most, in the 650-seat House of Commons, Farage says his goal is to get a foothold and lead the “real” opposition to a Labour Party government if the Conservatives lose power after 14 years in office.He is modelling his strategy on Canada’s Reform Party, which helped push that country’s Conservatives to the verge of wipeout in a 1993 election before reshaping Canadian conservative politics. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The U.K. general election on July 4 is just days away now, no doubt to the relief of the party leaders who have crisscrossed the country in a grueling month of campaigning.This campaign doesn’t seem to have shifted the political dial much, if at all, with the left-of-center Labour Party still the clear favorite to defeat the Conservatives of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and return to power for the first time in 14 years.If the polls are broadly accurate — and even the Tories have acknowledged their likely defeat — then Labour leader Keir Starmer will at some point on July 5 be driven to meet King Charles III at Buckingham Palace in order to get the go-ahead to form a government. The Conservatives’ campaign, already lacklustre, was beset this week by growing claims about election betting. Betting slips The investigation into widespread betting on the date and outcome of the general election by figures connected with Sunak is still rumbling on.For general elections in the U.K., there’s a market to predict the date of the vote. Unlike most other democracies, that decision rests solely in the hands of the prime minister. In the United States, for example, everyone knows that the presidential and congressional elections will take place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.People close to Sunak within the Conservative Party ranks and even police officers connected with his protection have been caught up in the inquiry.Reports suggest the total number of parliamentary candidates and officials could be 15. The Gambling Commission, the industry’s regulator, hasn’t confirmed the numbers involved. But it has said it has made “rapid progress” and will continue to work closely with London’s Metropolitan Police force, which is also investigating the actions of seven of its officers.Whatever the number, it’s a tawdry affair and has highlighted a culture of betting at Parliament. And not just on the date.Starmer suspended a Labour candidate this week too — for betting against himself in the coming election. Really the best? There were more debates again. Luckily, it’s fair to say, there are no more.When the U.K. finally had its first debate between leaders in the 2010 general election, there was the novelty factor. This year, it’s often felt like there’s been a debate every other day — for soccer fans, there’s at least been the European Championship from Germany to provide alternative viewing, however disappointing England and Scotland have been. The latest, and the last, debate aired on the BBC on Wednesday evening, and both Sunak and Starmer repeated the things that they’ve been saying for weeks. A Labour government, according to Sunak, will lead to higher taxes, while Starmer said now was the time for change.Perhaps the biggest round of applause came from neither of them. That was reserved for audience member Robert Blackstock.“Are you two really the best we’ve got to be the next prime minister of our great country?” he asked. Economic luck Whoever is prime minister come next Friday, it’s clear that’s the economic backdrop won’t be the easiest, given the dual impact of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.But many experts have said that the two main parties haven’t been entirely truthful in their manifestos about the challenges to come. “Regardless of who takes office following the general election, they will — unless they get lucky — soon face a stark choice,” said Paul Johnson, director of the well respected Institute for Fiscal Studies. “Raise taxes by more than they have told us in their manifesto. Or implement cuts to some areas of spending. Or borrow more and be content for debt to rise for longer.”Luck is probably the most undervalued political commodity, and that’s why many Conservatives were clearly against Sunak’s decision to call an early election — he could’ve waited until January.And there are signs that the economy is improving, though not being felt by the voters after years of duress. Official figures showed that the U.K. economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year from the previous three-month period — more than most leading economies.Had Sunak waited, it is argued, voters may have started to feel better about their situation — to the potential benefit of the Tories. Persistent polls A few hours after the polls close at 10 p.m. local time on Thursday, the overall result of the election will be known.In fact, the first constituency results will likely be known before the clock strikes midnight. It’s a race that many constituencies take seriously. Blyth and Ashington is expected to be the first to announce its result at around 11:30 p.m., closely followed by nearby Houghton and Sunderland South.But it’s a race and there will be bragging rights between the neighbors.Whoever wins that race, Labour remains favorite to win the most seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. While major pollsters give varying figures, all show a double-digit Labour lead, with relatively little change since Sunak called the election in the rain on May 22.Starmer is about 40 to 1 odds on to become prime minister. That’s not much of a bet — one would need to put on 40 pounds to get one pound in return! More