UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage has electrified the general election campaign, taking over as leader of Reform UK and launching a bid to become an MP.As first revealed by The Independent, Mr Farage will run in Tory-held Clacton in Essex in what is already being described as “an existential risk” for the Tories.The decision comes as a major blow to Rishi Sunak’s electoral hopes, as the former Ukip leader – who had said he would not run to be an MP – confirmed he had changed his mind and decided to contest the general election.Within hours of the revelation, Tory MPs and candidates were being asked to attend a briefing on an “immigration lock” pledge which means a Conservative government would set a legal limit on annual immigration figures. The move was being seen as a bid to stop Reform UK and Mr Farage splitting the vote on the right.Mr Farage’s announcement came on a day when two major polls suggested that the Tories were already heading for a historically bad defeat. A YouGov MRP poll of 12,000 people predicted Labour will have its biggest ever majority, of 194, with the Tories marooned on 140 seats.Earlier a Redfield and Wilton poll of 10,000 voters put Labour 26 points ahead of the Conservatives on just 20 per cent, suggesting the party could be down to a mere 24 seats. This followed an MRP poll at the weekend suggesting the Tories could be down to 66 seats.Click here for our live coverage of the general election campaign.Nigel Farage’s return as leader of Reform UK came with a promise to serve for five years alongside the Conservatives in opposition More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK in a historic landslide victory, according to a new MRP prediction from YouGov released on Monday.Under this prediction, today, Labour would enjoy a 194-seat majority, larger than the one achieved by Tony Blair at the 1997 general election. The forecast predicted the Conservatives would lose 223 seats and be left with just 140. That would be the worst loss for the Tories in well over 100 years, since then-prime minister Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats in 1906. The YouGov survery suggested several prominent Tory MPs and cabinet ministers could lose their seats next month, including defence secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.YouGov’s MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) prediction combines polling data from over 58,000 individuals, with local factors and voter characteristics to estimate election outcomes on a constituency level. Labour are set to secure key gains from historic Tory seats, particularly in the North of England. Constituencies thought to be going from blue to red include Leeds North West, Bury North and Bury South.The Tories are not projected to win a single new seat. In addition, they may lose all but four seats in London while Labour take 65.The Green Party could win one new seat in Bristol Central, with a projected 13 point lead over Labour, for co-leader Carla Denyer. More than 130 of 650 seats are a ‘toss-up’ according to YouGov’s analysis, with no candidate projected to win more than a 5 per cent majority. This means that 20 per cent of seats are set to be a very tight race. The Lib Dems, at 11 per cent in the polls, are projected to win 48 seats; five times more than the party won in 2019. The safest Lib Dem gains include Harrogate and Knaresborough, Cheadle, and Lewes, all of which were previously Tory seats.Meanwhile right-wing challenger party Reform UK are not projected to win any seats, despite over 300 candidates standing across the UK. The party is currently polling at 12 per cent, according to latest Techne polls.However, today’s shock announcement that Nigel Farage will take over as Reform leader could have an impact on whether the party wins seats on election day. Mr Farage remains insistent that Reform will win seats despite projections, adding: “I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party. I genuinely do.”Farage is running as an MP for Clacton, Essex, where YouGov’s estimate show that the Tories are estimated to win 42 per cent of votes, with Labour in second at 27 per cent and Reform at 19 per cent. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has revealed his favourite Nando’s order, and it includes a controversial side dish. He disclosed his preferred order from the peri-peri chicken restaurant when questioned by a girls’ team at Wantage Town FC.Mr Sunak said his Nando’s order was a half chicken, medium spiced, with chips and broccoli, adding: “It’s good broccoli”. The Prime Minister said he also likes to “mix it up” sometimes and get boneless chicken thighs.Mr Sunak gave his order when questioned by a girls’ team at Wantage Town FC More