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FO Talks: How Viktor Orbán Lost Control of Hungary</h2><p class=”post-summary”>
In this episode of FO Talks, Kent Jenkins Jr. and Aron Rimanyi discuss how economic stagnation, inflation and grassroots mobilization ended former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. They examine Péter Magyar’s efforts to reform state institutions, recover public money and strengthen EU relations. Hungary proves that even entrenched illiberal systems can unravel when economic hardship revives public participation.</p><div class=”bookmark-wrap”><div id=”social_link_2″><div class=”social_medai_share”><div class=”vid-page top-social-icon”><div id=”crestashareiconincontent” class=”cresta-share-icon first_style”><div class=”sbutton crestaShadow facebook-cresta-share” id=”facebook-cresta-c”>
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Aron Rimanyi </a>& <a
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Kent Jenkins Jr. </a></div><div class=”posted-on-single-post”>
September 22, 2026 06:52</div></div></div></div><p class=”post_content”></p><div class=”post_content”><div class=”short-content”></div><div class=”full-content”><p><p>Editor-at-Large Kent Jenkins Jr. speaks with Aron Rimanyi, an associate at Training The Street, about former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defeat following 16 consecutive years in power. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s Respect and Freedom Party (or TISZA) party has secured the parliamentary supermajority once enjoyed by Orbán’s Fidesz party. Jenkins and Rimanyi examine the economic discontent and grassroots mobilization behind this political reversal, as well as the new government’s efforts to reform Hungary’s institutions, finances and foreign policy.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>An illiberal system built around centralized power</h2><p>Orbán entered office in 2010 with a two-thirds parliamentary majority. His government concentrated authority around the prime minister, reshaped institutions and renamed the Supreme Court the Curia. It also cultivated what Orbán called a national capitalist class by transferring assets and opportunities to Hungarian business owners.</p><p>Rimanyi argues that this economic project became associated with corruption because many beneficiaries had personal or family connections to Orbán. Government allies also acquired influence over much of Hungary’s media. For younger Hungarians, the resulting assumption that influence required government connections may have done even more damage than the immediate economic consequences.</p><p>This concentration of political, economic and media power led scholars to describe Hungary as an example of an authoritarian breakthrough: Elections continued, but removing the governing party appeared nearly impossible.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Economic weakness undermined Fidesz</h2><p>Orbán’s system remained stable while living standards improved. His government used subsidies, tax rebates and other benefits to maintain support, but Hungary eventually fell into a middle-income trap marked by weak productivity and insufficient investment in higher-value industries. In 2022–2023, Hungary recorded the European Union’s highest inflation rate.</p><p>As wages failed to keep pace with prices, perceptions of corruption grew harder to overlook. Rimanyi summarizes the delayed consequences of Orbán’s economic model simply: “The bill ultimately comes due.”</p><p>Magyar translated these structural problems into everyday language about food prices, wages and Hungary’s declining position relative to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Fidesz concentrated its campaign on warnings about Ukraine, an issue Rimanyi says did not reflect voters’ principal concerns.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Magyar remobilized Hungarian voters</h2><p>Before establishing a developed party organization, Magyar traveled throughout Hungary and held as many as five rallies a day. He visited small villages that national politicians had rarely reached, addressed local concerns and assembled a grassroots volunteer network.</p><p>This campaign helped TISZA win 55% of the popular vote. Under electoral rules created by Fidesz, that result produced a two-thirds parliamentary majority. The outcome demonstrated that even a population regarded as politically disengaged could mobilize rapidly around new leadership.</p><p>Magyar has continued using social media and direct public engagement to sustain that participation. His combative communication style can deepen divisions, but his emphasis on practical matters such as living costs, energy use and water shortages has also appealed beyond TISZA’s electoral base.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>TISZA begins rebuilding the state</h2><p>The new government has appointed ministers with international corporate experience and begun tightening public finances. Hungary recently reported monthly fiscal surpluses, although Rimanyi notes that the figures require further examination. The government has also secured the release of much of the €17 billion in EU funding frozen over rule-of-law concerns and inadequate spending plans.</p><p>A new Bureau for Reclaiming Public Money will investigate assets privatized under Orbán. Fidesz describes the effort as a politically motivated witch hunt, while TISZA presents it as a lawful recovery process. Rimanyi expects political motivations and legitimate judicial review to coexist.</p><p>Parliament has also removed Orbán-appointed President Tamás Sulyok through a constitutional amendment and elected retired judge András Baka as a transitional president. Orbán’s government had pushed Baka out as Supreme Court president in 2011. His return carries symbolic weight as TISZA prepares a new constitution, although the government faces the difficult task of building consensus without marginalizing Fidesz voters.</p><h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Hungary changes course</h2><p>Magyar has moved Hungary closer to the EU consensus on Ukraine while stopping short of a complete foreign policy reversal. Hungary will still not send weapons to Ukraine, but it has stopped blocking a €90 billion loan package, supported the opening of EU accession negotiations and identified Russia as the aggressor.</p><p>Hungary nevertheless remains dependent on Russian hydrocarbons and Russian-supported nuclear infrastructure. Rimanyi therefore expects continued practical cooperation alongside gradual energy diversification.</p><p>For other countries, Hungary demonstrates both the limits of patronage-based government and the instability of apparently entrenched political cultures. As Rimanyi concludes, “Political culture is easier to change than a lot of people think.” Economic deterioration can weaken ideological loyalty, while credible leadership and sustained local engagement can rapidly return disengaged citizens to political life.</p><p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p><p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p></p></div></div></div></div><div class=”comments-wrapper” id=”comments-wrapper”><div class=”headline hide-on-print border-bottom marb30″><h2>Comment</h2></div><style id=”fo-private-comments”>#wpdcom #wpd-threads{display:none!important;}</style><div class=”wpdiscuz_top_clearing”></div><div id=’comments’ class=’comments-area’><div id=’respond’ style=’width: 0;height: 0;clear: both;margin: 0;padding: 0;’></div><div id=”wpdcom” class=”wpdiscuz_unauth wpd-default wpd-layout-1 wpd-comments-open”><div class=”wc_social_plugin_wrapper”></div><div class=”wpd-form-wrap”><div class=”wpd-form-head”><div class=”wpd-auth”><div class=”wpd-login”>
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alt=”Fair Observer” title=”” width=”500″ /></a></div></article></div></div></div></div><div class=”video-top-scroll row”><div id=”videodemos”><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Will-Historic-AfD-Victory-Now-Sink-German-Chancellor-Friedrich-Merz-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/YhguD5XWI04″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/sebastian-schaeffer’>Sebastian Schäffer</a>”
post_date=”September 25, 2026 06:50″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-will-historic-afd-victory-now-sink-german-chancellor-friedrich-merz/” pid=”164636″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe, discuss the Alternative for Germany’s (or Alternative for Deutschland, abbreviated AfD) historic electoral victory in Saxony-Anhalt. They examine the economic stagnation, political disillusionment and enduring East–West divide fueling the far right’s rise. They also assess German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s leadership, Germany’s increasingly fragmented political system and the future of the country’s firewall against the AfD.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>East Germany’s discontent fuels the AfD</h2>
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<p>Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany’s 16 federal states and has roughly two million inhabitants. Located in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), the state was established in its current form during German reunification. It contains areas once sustained by industry but now marked by economic decline and outward migration. Singh describes the state as part of Germany’s rust belt.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Despite having relatively few foreign residents, Saxony-Anhalt has become a center of support for the anti-immigration AfD. Schäffer identifies three underlying causes: the persistent belief among East Germans that they remain second-class citizens, dissatisfaction with established parties and frustration over the handling of migration and the economy.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The AfD’s victory follows its 2024 success in Thuringia. Schäffer argues, however, that the most consequential result was the Christian Democratic Union of Germany’s (CDU) collapse rather than the AfD’s expected first-place finish. The outcome reveals how sharply traditional parties have lost voters’ confidence. Many voters appear less committed to the AfD’s detailed program than determined to reject a political establishment they believe has ignored them.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Merz has overpromised and underdelivered</h2>
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<p>Merz presented himself as a business-minded alternative to conventional career politicians. After serving in politics during the 1980s and 1990s, he worked as a corporate lawyer and investment manager at BlackRock before returning to lead the CDU. His experience encouraged expectations that he could restore growth and modernize Germany’s economy.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Parliament gave Merz exceptional room to act by approving €500 billion in borrowing for infrastructure, defense and economic modernization. He also promised to halve the AfD’s support and pledged to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine if Russia continued attacking civilians. Schäffer argues that visible progress has not followed.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>“He has overpromised and underdelivered drastically,” Schäffer says. Merz has also alienated citizens by telling them to work harder while appearing unable to fulfill his own commitments. His communication problems compound the impression that his government lacks empathy, direction and urgency. By adopting some of the AfD’s rhetoric without delivering the change voters expected, he may have strengthened the party he intended to weaken.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Germany hasn’t prepared for industrial change</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Germany’s economic malaise predates Merz. Its automotive industry, long built around mastery of the internal combustion engine, now faces severe pressure from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. Political and corporate leaders failed to anticipate the transition early enough, leaving Germany without a convincing strategy for industrial renewal.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder confronted an earlier period of stagnation with the controversial Hartz labor reforms. No comparable structural program has emerged today. Global crises have also raised energy costs and weakened growth, but Schäffer argues that German governments could have done more to prepare the country and protect citizens from economic disruption.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Many Germans no longer believe that the next generation will enjoy greater prosperity than the last. This loss of optimism strengthens parties offering a return to an idealized past. The nostalgia hits particularly hard in former East Germany, where some voters romanticize aspects of the GDR despite its authoritarian system and Soviet domination.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Schäffer believes the AfD does not truly want responsibility for governing. Opposition allows it to promise sweeping change, reject compromises and blame other parties when those promises prove impossible.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Fragmentation tests Germany’s coalition model</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Germany uses a mixed electoral system combining constituency contests with proportional party representation. Parties generally must receive at least 5% of the vote to enter parliament. The system usually produces coalition governments and makes negotiation essential.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Critics argue that the proliferation of parties, including the AfD and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, has transformed compromise into paralysis. The previous coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats became associated with indecision and internal conflict. Germany’s postwar consensus worked when the social fabric was stronger, but growing fragmentation now makes agreement more difficult.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Schäffer nevertheless defends coalition-building as one of democracy’s fundamental rules. “We need coalition governments, we need compromise,” he says. The deeper problem is not proportional representation itself but parties’ failure to use compromise to produce coherent policies. Political leaders must debate which policies work rather than reducing every question to a contest between left and right.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Migration intensifies a broader crisis of confidence</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>More than a quarter of Germany’s population has an immigration background. Migration and integration have consequently become central political issues, but Schäffer warns that politicians repeatedly exploit border rhetoric during elections instead of developing workable European solutions.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>He maintains that “basic humanism requires us to help if people are seeking refuge.” Germany must nevertheless demand more from those unwilling to integrate while creating better opportunities for those who want to participate in society. Schäffer argues that the country needs migration because of its demographic decline, but its leaders have communicated poorly and failed to balance obligations with expectations.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The AfD’s strongest results in areas with relatively few migrants suggest that its appeal reflects broader political alienation as much as direct experience of immigration. Economic insecurity, distrust of institutions and resentment toward governing elites give simplified anti-immigration arguments greater force.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Since Singh and Schäffer held this interview, the CDU has <a href=”https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvwyz29n0nn2o” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>lost</a> the September 20 Berlin election and couldn’t garner enough votes in the September 20 Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election to enter <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/21/germany-chancellor-freidrich-merz-cdu-christian-democratic-union-state-election-defeats-mecklenburg-western-pomerania-berlin” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>parliament</a> — the latter is a historic failure. A CDU defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia next year could make his position untenable. Merz’s fate depends on whether his government can restore economic confidence, answer public concerns and prove that democratic compromise can still deliver meaningful change. If it cannot, the political firewall excluding the AfD from the government will become increasingly difficult to maintain.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Sebastian Schäffer, Director of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe, discuss the Alternative for Germany’s (or Alternative for Deutschland, abbreviated AfD) historic electoral victory in Saxony-Anhalt. They examine the economic stagnation,…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Atul Singh and Sebastian Schäffer examine how economic anxiety, party dissatisfaction and East German agitation have fueled the AfD’s rise. Chancellor Friedrich Merz strengthened the far right by promising economic renewal and political change and not delivering. Germany’s leaders must restore public confidence, manage immigration and demonstrate that coalition politics can bring change.”
post-date=”Sep 25, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Will Historic AfD Victory Now Sink German Chancellor Friedrich Merz?” slug-data=”fo-talks-will-historic-afd-victory-now-sink-german-chancellor-friedrich-merz”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-will-historic-afd-victory-now-sink-german-chancellor-friedrich-merz/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Will-Historic-AfD-Victory-Now-Sink-German-Chancellor-Friedrich-Merz-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Will-Historic-AfD-Victory-Now-Sink-German-Chancellor-Friedrich-Merz-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Will-Historic-AfD-Victory-Now-Sink-German-Chancellor-Friedrich-Merz-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/YhguD5XWI04?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Will Historic AfD Victory Now Sink German Chancellor Friedrich Merz?</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164636″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Sebastian-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164636″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/sebastian-schaeffer”>Sebastian Schäffer</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 25, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-Victor-Orban-Lost-Control-of-Hungary-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ov155rdVtMA”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rimanyi-arongmail-com’>Aron Rimanyi</a>”
post_date=”September 22, 2026 06:52″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-how-viktor-orban-lost-control-of-hungary/” pid=”164597″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-at-Large Kent Jenkins Jr. speaks with Aron Rimanyi, an associate at Training The Street, about former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defeat following 16 consecutive years in power. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s Respect and Freedom Party (or TISZA) party has secured the parliamentary supermajority once enjoyed by Orbán’s Fidesz party. Jenkins and Rimanyi examine the economic discontent and grassroots mobilization behind this political reversal, as well as the new government’s efforts to reform Hungary’s institutions, finances and foreign policy.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>An illiberal system built around centralized power</h2>
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<p>Orbán entered office in 2010 with a two-thirds parliamentary majority. His government concentrated authority around the prime minister, reshaped institutions and renamed the Supreme Court the Curia. It also cultivated what Orbán called a national capitalist class by transferring assets and opportunities to Hungarian business owners.</p>
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<p>Rimanyi argues that this economic project became associated with corruption because many beneficiaries had personal or family connections to Orbán. Government allies also acquired influence over much of Hungary’s media. For younger Hungarians, the resulting assumption that influence required government connections may have done even more damage than the immediate economic consequences.</p>
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<p>This concentration of political, economic and media power led scholars to describe Hungary as an example of an authoritarian breakthrough: Elections continued, but removing the governing party appeared nearly impossible.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Economic weakness undermined Fidesz</h2>
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<p>Orbán’s system remained stable while living standards improved. His government used subsidies, tax rebates and other benefits to maintain support, but Hungary eventually fell into a middle-income trap marked by weak productivity and insufficient investment in higher-value industries. In 2022–2023, Hungary recorded the European Union’s highest inflation rate.</p>
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<p>As wages failed to keep pace with prices, perceptions of corruption grew harder to overlook. Rimanyi summarizes the delayed consequences of Orbán’s economic model simply: “The bill ultimately comes due.”</p>
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<p>Magyar translated these structural problems into everyday language about food prices, wages and Hungary’s declining position relative to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Fidesz concentrated its campaign on warnings about Ukraine, an issue Rimanyi says did not reflect voters’ principal concerns.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Magyar remobilized Hungarian voters</h2>
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<p>Before establishing a developed party organization, Magyar traveled throughout Hungary and held as many as five rallies a day. He visited small villages that national politicians had rarely reached, addressed local concerns and assembled a grassroots volunteer network.</p>
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<p>This campaign helped TISZA win 55% of the popular vote. Under electoral rules created by Fidesz, that result produced a two-thirds parliamentary majority. The outcome demonstrated that even a population regarded as politically disengaged could mobilize rapidly around new leadership.</p>
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<p>Magyar has continued using social media and direct public engagement to sustain that participation. His combative communication style can deepen divisions, but his emphasis on practical matters such as living costs, energy use and water shortages has also appealed beyond TISZA’s electoral base.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>TISZA begins rebuilding the state</h2>
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<p>The new government has appointed ministers with international corporate experience and begun tightening public finances. Hungary recently reported monthly fiscal surpluses, although Rimanyi notes that the figures require further examination. The government has also secured the release of much of the €17 billion in EU funding frozen over rule-of-law concerns and inadequate spending plans.</p>
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<p>A new Bureau for Reclaiming Public Money will investigate assets privatized under Orbán. Fidesz describes the effort as a politically motivated witch hunt, while TISZA presents it as a lawful recovery process. Rimanyi expects political motivations and legitimate judicial review to coexist.</p>
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<p>Parliament has also removed Orbán-appointed President Tamás Sulyok through a constitutional amendment and elected retired judge András Baka as a transitional president. Orbán’s government had pushed Baka out as Supreme Court president in 2011. His return carries symbolic weight as TISZA prepares a new constitution, although the government faces the difficult task of building consensus without marginalizing Fidesz voters.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Hungary changes course</h2>
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<p>Magyar has moved Hungary closer to the EU consensus on Ukraine while stopping short of a complete foreign policy reversal. Hungary will still not send weapons to Ukraine, but it has stopped blocking a €90 billion loan package, supported the opening of EU accession negotiations and identified Russia as the aggressor.</p>
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<p>Hungary nevertheless remains dependent on Russian hydrocarbons and Russian-supported nuclear infrastructure. Rimanyi therefore expects continued practical cooperation alongside gradual energy diversification.</p>
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<p>For other countries, Hungary demonstrates both the limits of patronage-based government and the instability of apparently entrenched political cultures. As Rimanyi concludes, “Political culture is easier to change than a lot of people think.” Economic deterioration can weaken ideological loyalty, while credible leadership and sustained local engagement can rapidly return disengaged citizens to political life.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-at-Large Kent Jenkins Jr. speaks with Aron Rimanyi, an associate at Training The Street, about former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s defeat following 16 consecutive years in power. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s Respect and Freedom Party (or TISZA) party has secured…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Kent Jenkins Jr. and Aron Rimanyi discuss how economic stagnation, inflation and grassroots mobilization ended former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. They examine Péter Magyar’s efforts to reform state institutions, recover public money and strengthen EU relations. Hungary proves that even entrenched illiberal systems can unravel when economic hardship revives public participation.”
post-date=”Sep 22, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: How Viktor Orbán Lost Control of Hungary” slug-data=”fo-talks-how-viktor-orban-lost-control-of-hungary”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-how-viktor-orban-lost-control-of-hungary/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-Victor-Orban-Lost-Control-of-Hungary-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-Victor-Orban-Lost-Control-of-Hungary-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-Victor-Orban-Lost-Control-of-Hungary-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ov155rdVtMA?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle current-post”>
FO Talks: How Viktor Orbán Lost Control of Hungary</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164597″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Aron-Rimanyi-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164597″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/rimanyi-arongmail-com”>Aron Rimanyi</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/kent-jenkins-jr’>Kent Jenkins Jr.</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 22, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Red-Sea-Crisis-Power-Struggles-in-Yemen-and-Sudan-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/I6vo3mO26Is”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/fernando-carvajal’>Fernando Carvajal</a>”
post_date=”September 17, 2026 06:05″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/fo-live-the-red-sea-crisis-power-struggles-in-yemen-and-sudan/” pid=”164533″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh speaks with Fernando Carvajal, the executive director at The American Center for South Yemen Studies, and former Aden Free Zone Chair Abdul Galil Shaif about Islamist extremism in Yemen and Sudan. They examine how armed and political factions obstruct dialogue, marginalize civil society and prolong conflicts on both sides of the Red Sea. They also preview a September 14 panel at the UK House of Commons, cohosted by Member of Parliament Sharon Hodgson, on the regional and international consequences of these crises.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Extremists obstruct Sudan’s democratic transition</h2>
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<p>Carvajal says recent developments demonstrate why the parliamentary discussion is timely. Investigations reported by <em>The New York Times</em> and <em>The Washington Post</em> have raised allegations that the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Port Sudan government used chemical weapons.</p>
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<p>Sudan’s current civil war erupted in April 2023, following the 2021 military coup that dismantled the civilian-led transitional council formed after the overthrow of former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. Carvajal states that Islamist factions embedded within the military establishment are now seeking to preserve the authoritarian system associated with Bashir.</p>
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<p>In September 2025, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States proposed a humanitarian ceasefire followed by an inclusive political dialogue. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan initially appeared receptive but reversed course after Muslim Brotherhood elements rejected foreign involvement. He later proposed a military-managed national dialogue that excluded important civilian parties and civil society organizations.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Yemen’s factions benefit from political paralysis</h2>
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<p>Across the Red Sea, the Houthis continue to threaten Saudi territory and attack targets in southern Yemen. Carvajal points to strikes on military bases in Hadhramaut and the near destruction of Mokha port. He says forces associated with the Muslim Brotherhood-linked al-Islah party have hesitated to confront the Houthis directly, leaving much of the fighting to local forces around the cities of Hodeidah, Mokha and Taiz.</p>
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<p>Shaif describes Yemen as a “forgotten war” that attracts international attention primarily when instability threatens economic interests. He argues that al-Islah is exploiting the confrontation with the Houthis to rebuild its political influence through government institutions, charities and nongovernmental organizations.</p>
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<p>Although the Houthis are the immediate military adversary, Shaif regards al-Islah as a longer-term strategic danger. He believes its ideological project threatens the secular and progressive traditions of southern Yemen, including the advances in women’s rights achieved before unification.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Red Sea becomes an economic lifeline</h2>
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<p>The conflicts have implications far beyond Yemen and Sudan because they surround one of the world’s most important commercial corridors. Singh notes that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed since March 1 amid the US/Israel–Iran war. Shipping companies and Gulf states have consequently become more dependent on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.</p>
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<p>Shaif explains that this dependence gives the Houthis considerable leverage over international commerce. Disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could place a substantial share of global trade at risk while restricting the remaining routes available for Gulf oil exports.</p>
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<p>Saudi Arabia is therefore exploring a pipeline through Hadhramaut and Mahra that would bypass vulnerable maritime chokepoints. Shaif argues that Yemen’s humanitarian suffering still receives insufficient attention, while the possibility of disrupted energy supplies and rising transportation costs has finally made its instability an urgent international concern.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Western debates miss the larger threat</h2>
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<p>Carvajal connects these regional conflicts to intensifying Western debates about Islamist organizations. Some US states are pursuing measures against groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, while right-wing politicians in France have proposed banning the hijab. Britain has experienced similar controversy, including former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s comparison of veiled women to letter boxes.</p>
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<p>Shaif says banning the hijab lacks broad support among the British public and distracts from the political structures that allow extremist movements to expand. He calls the debate a “red herring” that reduces a complicated security problem to religious clothing.</p>
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<p>He also warns that Islamic extremism must be considered alongside far-right extremism. Western governments, he contends, contributed to present instability by funding jihadist forces in Afghanistan without accounting for the movements and networks that would subsequently emerge.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Civil society needs a place at the table</h2>
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<p>Carvajal sees a common pattern in Yemen and Sudan. Armed Islamist factions reject inclusive negotiations because democratic dialogue could weaken their power. Sudan’s military leadership excludes civilian organizations, while the Houthis seek direct negotiations with Saudi Arabia rather than a broader Yemeni political process. Southern dialogue in Yemen has also stalled, benefiting al-Islah and other entrenched actors.</p>
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<p>Shaif and Singh criticize the United Nations for failing to deliver a political settlement in Yemen. Without institutional reform and stronger support for representative civil society, they see little prospect of meaningful progress.</p>
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<p>The House of Commons panel will bring together Shaif, former UK Ambassador Edmund Fitton-Brown, Sudanese civil rights activist Anes Himemed and other regional experts. Moderated by <em>Fair Observer</em> Chair Claire Whitaker, the event aims to show policymakers how extremist networks on both shores of the Red Sea undermine peace, accountable government and global economic security.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh speaks with Fernando Carvajal, the executive director at The American Center for South Yemen Studies, and former Aden Free Zone Chair Abdul Galil Shaif about Islamist extremism in Yemen and Sudan. They examine how armed and political factions obstruct dialogue,…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Live, Atul Singh, Fernando Carvajal and Abdul Galil Shaif examine how Islamist factions obstruct political dialogue and prolong conflicts in Yemen and Sudan. These struggles threaten democratic government and trade routes through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Resolving them requires stronger international institutions and political processes that give civilian voices a meaningful role.”
post-date=”Sep 17, 2026″
post-title=”FO Live: The Red Sea Crisis — Power Struggles in Yemen and Sudan” slug-data=”fo-live-the-red-sea-crisis-power-struggles-in-yemen-and-sudan”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/fo-live-the-red-sea-crisis-power-struggles-in-yemen-and-sudan/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Red-Sea-Crisis-Power-Struggles-in-Yemen-and-Sudan-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Red-Sea-Crisis-Power-Struggles-in-Yemen-and-Sudan-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Red-Sea-Crisis-Power-Struggles-in-Yemen-and-Sudan-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/I6vo3mO26Is?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Live: The Red Sea Crisis — Power Struggles in Yemen and Sudan</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164533″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Fernando-Carvajal–100×100.jpg.webp” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164533″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/fernando-carvajal”>Fernando Carvajal</a>, <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/abdul-galil-shaif’>Abdul Galil Shaif</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 17, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Fight-For-Answers-Investigating-Black-Deaths-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/IgFe1f4oql0″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/bobby-j-smith-ii’>Bobby J. Smith II</a>”
post_date=”September 16, 2026 06:30″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-the-fight-for-answers-investigating-black-deaths/” pid=”164509″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>Fair Observer</em> editor Lucy Golish speaks with Bobby J. Smith, Associate Professor of African American Studies at the University of Illinois–Urbana-Champaign, about the long history of underinvestigated Black deaths in the United States. Smith states that racial assumptions shape how victims are portrayed, how authorities conduct investigations and whether grieving families receive answers. He calls for greater scrutiny of investigative protocols, stronger accountability for legal actors and media coverage that treats black victims as human beings rather than entertainment.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Black deaths reveal a historical pattern</h2>
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<p>Smith traces today’s controversies to the 1955 murder of 14-year-old Emmett Till, although he stresses that the killing of black Americans under racist circumstances began long before then. Black communities have consistently protested such deaths, but the broader public and those in power have often failed to respond with the same urgency.</p>
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<p>Smith argues that this indifference reflects assumptions that black people are inferior or disposable. When a black person dies violently, public discussion frequently focuses on the victim’s behavior. People ask why the victim entered a particular neighborhood, stayed outside late or attended a certain gathering. The victim consequently becomes a suspected participant in their own death.</p>
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<p>This tendency is especially pronounced when the victim is young. Golish describes the adultification of black children, who are denied the freedom to make the ordinary mistakes associated with adolescence. Smith contrasts their treatment with that of white children, who are more often allowed to experiment, misbehave and mature without their actions defining the remainder of their lives.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Media can humanize or exploit victims</h2>
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<p>Mamie Till-Mobley, Emmett’s mother, understood that media exposure could compel the country to confront what happened to her son. Her decision to hold an open-casket funeral and permit photographs of Emmett’s mutilated body helped mobilize black Americans and attract wider attention to the Civil Rights Movement.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Modern social media operate differently. Graphic recordings appear repeatedly in algorithmically selected feeds, often without context. Smith stopped watching videos of black people being killed during the Black Lives Matter movement because they were affecting his mental health. He fears that constant exposure has desensitized audiences. “Black death should not be entertainment,” he says.</p>
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<p>Body-camera footage can provide indispensable evidence, particularly when official accounts conflict with what occurred. Yet posting such material for attention or advertising revenue turns suffering into a commodity. Smith places this practice within a much older history that includes the sale of lynching postcards. As he bluntly observes, “black death is lucrative, sadly.”</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Investigators skip essential steps</h2>
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<p>Golish raises cases in which authorities reached preliminary conclusions before completing basic investigative work. They quickly decided Carter Jackson’s death was a suicide, while Tamila Horford’s fatal fall from a balcony was an accident. Their families questioned whether authorities had collected evidence, interviewed everyone involved or adequately considered foul play.</p>
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<p>Smith rejects the suggestion that racial prejudices merely enter otherwise neutral investigations. He argues that they are already woven into American institutions and communities. Proper investigations require authorities to preserve and analyze evidence, interview relevant witnesses and avoid reaching conclusions before completing established procedures.</p>
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<p>Investigators already receive professional training and operate under formal protocols. The immediate problem, Smith contends, is therefore not an absence of rules but the failure to apply them consistently. Preliminary findings can become permanent explanations even when important questions remain unanswered.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Unresolved cases prolong families’ grief</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Smith describes the investigation into Nolan Wells’s death as one of the most improper he has encountered in years. Wells died after attending a gathering with numerous people, yet conflicting accounts have left the circumstances unclear. Smith finds it extraordinary that so many potential witnesses were present without investigators establishing what happened.</p>
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<p>Official failures have encouraged the rise of online sleuths who collect posts, compare accounts and construct their own timelines. Some uncover information that authorities appear to have overlooked, but the resulting speculation can also create chaos, threaten witnesses and obscure the victim’s life.</p>
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<p>The absence of answers deprives families of resolution. Determining what happened cannot reverse a death, but it can allow relatives to grieve without constantly defending their loved one against accusations of drunkenness, criminality or suicide.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Accountability begins with investigative protocols</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Smith distinguishes between the law and the people responsible for applying it. Laws may establish procedures, but investigators, coroners and other officials interpret evidence and exercise institutional power. Reform must therefore examine the conduct of these system actors.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>He proposes comparative case studies to establish why investigative protocols succeed in some jurisdictions but fail in others. Departments may also need additional resources to manage demanding caseloads, but limited capacity cannot justify abandoning essential procedures.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Smith urges activists and journalists to obtain their local departments’ investigative protocols, study them and identify skipped steps. Investigators must investigate every death thoroughly, regardless of the victim’s race, and provide families with the answers and justice they deserve.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer editor Lucy Golish speaks with Bobby J. Smith, Associate Professor of African American Studies at the University of Illinois–Urbana-Champaign, about the long history of underinvestigated Black deaths in the United States. Smith states that racial assumptions shape how victims are…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Lucy Golish and Bobby J. Smith examine the historical pattern of underinvestigated black deaths in America. Racial assumptions often influence how authorities portray victims, follow investigative protocols and answer grieving families. And while social media can expose injustice, it can also turn black trauma into entertainment.”
post-date=”Sep 16, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: The Fight For Answers — Investigating Black Deaths” slug-data=”fo-talks-the-fight-for-answers-investigating-black-deaths”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-the-fight-for-answers-investigating-black-deaths/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Fight-For-Answers-Investigating-Black-Deaths-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Fight-For-Answers-Investigating-Black-Deaths-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Fight-For-Answers-Investigating-Black-Deaths-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/IgFe1f4oql0?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: The Fight For Answers — Investigating Black Deaths</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164509″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Bobby-J.-Smith-II-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164509″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/bobby-j-smith-ii”>Bobby J. Smith II</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/lucysgolishgmail-com’>Lucy Golish</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 16, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lula-vs-Another-Bolsonaro-Brazils-2026-Election-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/LA-_L-HKsss”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/helder-ferreira-do-vale’>Helder Ferreira do Vale</a>”
post_date=”September 15, 2026 06:40″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-lula-vs-another-bolsonaro-brazils-2026-election/” pid=”164476″
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<p><em>Fair Observer</em>’s Communications and Outreach officer, Roberta Campani, speaks with Helder Ferreira do Vale, a professor of Political Science at the Catholic University of Brasília, about Brazil’s closely contested 2026 presidential election. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round polling, but a runoff could produce a technical tie. Ferreira do Vale explains how polarization, congressional fragmentation, US involvement and Brazil’s resilient institutions will shape the contest.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Brazil returns to a polarized contest</h2>
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<p>Ferreira do Vale says that intense political polarization has defined Brazil since 2018. The coming election resembles the 2022 contest, when Lula narrowly defeated former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who subsequently challenged the electoral system and was prosecuted following an attempted coup.</p>
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<p>Lula is seeking a second consecutive term and his fourth overall. Brazilian law permits presidents to serve two consecutive terms. Lula governed from 2003 to 2010, remained out of office for three presidential terms and returned to power in 2022. His candidacy is therefore legal.</p>
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<p>Flávio Bolsonaro has emerged as the principal heir to his father’s conservative movement. A former senator and Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, he belongs to a family whose members have helped sustain the former president’s rhetoric and political organization. Ferreira do Vale believes former First Lady of Brazil Michelle Bolsonaro might have made a stronger candidate because of her charisma and potential appeal among women. A public family dispute, however, pushed her aside.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A runoff could erase Lula’s lead</h2>
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<p>Brazilian presidential candidates must receive more than 50% of valid votes to win in the first round. Polls give Lula an advantage of roughly four to six percentage points over Flávio. Lula benefits from being the left’s only major candidate, while several conservative candidates divide the right-wing vote.</p>
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<p>Yet Lula’s rejection rate ranges from 45% to 48%, limiting his ability to attract additional support. The race consequently becomes much closer in projected second-round matchups. Polls place Lula between 40% and 45%, compared with approximately 44% for Flávio.</p>
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<p>Several minor conservative candidates currently command between 2% and 4% each. Their voters are likely to move toward Flávio in a runoff. Ferreira do Vale therefore expects a contest resembling 2022: a relatively comfortable first-round performance for Lula followed by a far tighter second round.</p>
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<p>The electorate may nevertheless be less rigid than it was four years ago. Approximately 51% of voters, in a spontaneous poll, now say they could change their minds before the election, compared with 32% during the 2022 campaign.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Lula dominates the left as Congress constrains presidents</h2>
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<p>Lula has remained Brazil’s central left-wing figure since its transition to democracy. Ferreira do Vale says Lula has systematically sidelined potential rivals, leaving the left without an obvious successor despite the president’s age.</p>
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<p>The Workers’ Party has survived by adapting its coalition and geographic base. It began as a labor movement supported by parts of São Paulo’s middle class, but its strongest support now comes from the poorer Northeast. Ferreira do Vale calls it “a very adaptable, chameleonic party” capable of competing locally and nationally.</p>
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<p>Brazil’s right is more fragmented. Many conservative parties have strong local organizations but limited ideological or programmatic commitments. They dominate Congress, which has accumulated substantial control over public spending and can pressure presidents through the budget.</p>
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<p>This structure produces unexpected alliances. The right-wing president of the lower house has endorsed Lula instead of Flávio, demonstrating that congressional leaders may prioritize access to power over ideological loyalty. Whoever wins the presidency will therefore have to negotiate with a conservative legislature.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Trump becomes an issue in Brazil’s election</h2>
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<p>Foreign policy plays an unusually prominent role. Flávio’s allies suggest that his victory would secure support from US President Donald Trump, whose administration has cultivated close relationships with conservative Latin American governments.</p>
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<p>Relations between Brasília and Washington have deteriorated. In July, the United States imposed a 25% tariff increase on Brazilian goods, citing unfair trade. Brazil has indicated that it will not grant a visa to a US senator nominated as ambassador before the election. Washington responded by canceling Brazilian ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa.</p>
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<p>Lula’s government fears that a Trump-aligned US ambassador could question the election’s legitimacy. Jair Bolsonaro previously attacked Brazil’s electronic voting system and cast doubt on electoral results.</p>
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<p>Ferreira do Vale rejects claims that the system itself is unreliable, describing it as “quite efficient, transparent.” Electoral authorities and the Supreme Court are nevertheless engaging international observers and civil society to explain the process and protect public confidence.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Brazil’s institutions favor continuity</h2>
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<p>The candidates differ in rhetoric, particularly on environmental protection and social policy, but both will face powerful institutional constraints. Brazil’s agricultural caucus exercises significant influence in Congress, while the country’s biofuel, food and agricultural industries limit how sharply either administration could change policy.</p>
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<p>Major social institutions have also survived political transitions. Bolsa Família, the cash-transfer program introduced under Lula, remained in place under Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s decentralized public health system, established during the transition to democracy, has endured changes at every level of government and operates one of the world’s largest free HIV/AIDS treatment programs.</p>
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<p>Ferreira do Vale expects similar continuity after the election. Brazil’s large bureaucracy, federal structure and numerous veto institutions make radical changes difficult. Those safeguards helped the country withstand the events of January 8, 2023.</p>
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<p>Voters still confront serious problems. Household debt has reduced disposable income, while 33% identify public violence as their greatest concern. Despite average economic growth of approximately 3% over the past four years, many Brazilians continue to experience financial hardship.</p>
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<p>Neither Lula nor the Flávio movement has resolved these structural challenges. The election may therefore be extremely close, but Ferreira do Vale expects Brazil’s institutions and established social programs to remain largely intact regardless of the winner.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Communications and Outreach officer, Roberta Campani, speaks with Helder Ferreira do Vale, a professor of Political Science at the Catholic University of Brasília, about Brazil’s closely contested 2026 presidential election. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Roberta Campani and Helder Ferreira do Vale examine Brazil’s presidential election between incumbent President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula leads in first-round polls, but support from conservative voters could produce a tie in a runoff. Despite foreign pressure and concerns of violence, Brazil’s institutions and major social programs will likely remain resilient.”
post-date=”Sep 15, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Lula vs Another Bolsonaro — Brazil’s 2026 Election” slug-data=”fo-talks-lula-vs-another-bolsonaro-brazils-2026-election”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-lula-vs-another-bolsonaro-brazils-2026-election/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lula-vs-Another-Bolsonaro-Brazils-2026-Election-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/LA-_L-HKsss?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Lula vs Another Bolsonaro — Brazil’s 2026 Election</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164476″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Helder-Ferreira-do-Vale-2-100×100.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-164476″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/helder-ferreira-do-vale”>Helder Ferreira do Vale</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/roberta-artemisia-campani’>Roberta Artemisia Campani</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 15, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Looming-Global-Food-Crisis-How-Hunger-and-Famine-Will-Trigger-Instability-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/geJg5Iop62A”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle’>Glenn Carle</a>”
post_date=”September 14, 2026 08:11″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-exclusive-the-looming-global-food-crisis-how-hunger-and-famine-will-trigger-instability/” pid=”164469″
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<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and <a href=”https://fointell.com/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>FOI</a> Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, examine how the US–Israeli war against Iran could precipitate a global <a href=”https://www.ft.com/content/36343e24-b06f-434d-a7e5-6046e7bcf3df” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>food crisis</a>. Disrupted energy and fertilizer supplies, rising shipping costs, weakening currencies and an exceptionally powerful El Niño threaten harvests around the world. Atul and Glenn warn that the resulting hunger could trigger social unrest, sovereign defaults and political upheaval, particularly across Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Food inflation threatens political stability</h2>
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<p>As pointed out repeatedly by Atul and Glenn, the Hormuz crisis has caused a massive energy and fertilizer crisis. This global crisis is increasing food inflation. Monetary policies are worsening this inflation.</p>
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<p>International staples such as wheat, corn and soybeans are priced in dollars. As FOI has <a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7497752080288387072″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>pointed</a> out repeatedly, post-Covid monetary easing debased the dollar. As many have noticed, groceries cost far more than before.</p>
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<p>In poorer countries, this inflation is a lot worse. Many currencies in emerging markets are depreciating against the dollar. Thanks to the exchange-rate multiplier effect, food prices are rising in many poorer countries even faster than in the US. Note that high food prices helped <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/publications/the-arab-uprisings-an-introduction/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>trigger</a> the Arab Uprisings at the end of 2010.</p>
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<p>Glenn emphasizes the political consequences of the upheavals in 2010. Food inflation did not single-handedly cause the Arab Uprisings. Corruption, unemployment, repression and political exclusion had already generated deep frustration. Yet rising prices transformed those grievances into household emergencies. Governments become far more vulnerable when families can no longer afford bread. As Atul says repeatedly, “revolutions depend on the price of bread.”</p>
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<p>The same dynamic could recur. People in advanced economies will resent higher grocery bills and may vote against incumbent governments. In low-income countries, where households commonly devote around half their income to food, price increases can threaten their very survival. In such a situation, people are far more likely to take to the streets.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Hormuz disrupts fertilizers as well as fuel</h2>
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<p>With the US–Israeli war against Iran choking off the supply of fuel and fertilizers, harvests will inevitably suffer in many parts of the world. The war has caused a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic initially fell by more than 95%. Although some vessels have resumed passage, tracked transits remain approximately 90% below prewar levels.</p>
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<p>Many people normally associate Hormuz with energy. Around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption has raised energy prices and increased costs throughout the global economy. Diesel for tractors costs more and it costs more to transport or preserve food too.</p>
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<p>Additionally, Hormuz is also an agricultural chokepoint. Approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the strait. This includes around a third of internationally traded urea and 20% of phosphate fertilizer supplies. Gulf producers also account for roughly half of global sulfur exports, which manufacturers need to transform phosphate rock into fertilizer that plants can absorb.</p>
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<p>The loss of Gulf supplies has therefore affected both nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Natural gas is the principal feedstock for nitrogen-based products such as urea and ammonium nitrate. Higher gas prices make those fertilizers more expensive to manufacture even outside the Gulf. Simultaneously, lost sulfur exports constrain phosphate fertilizer production in other regions.</p>
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<p>Global fertilizer costs have consequently risen by as much as 20%. The disruption is also forcing buyers into more expensive spot markets after suppliers canceled contracts under force majeure provisions.</p>
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<p>Shipping expenses compound the problem. Before the war, insurance for vessels entering the Gulf could cost around 0.25% of a ship’s value. War-risk premiums later climbed as high as 10%. Insuring a $100 million vessel can therefore cost up to $10 million for a single voyage. Some insurers will not cover the journey at any price.</p>
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<p>Glenn explains that higher energy and shipping costs affect every link in the food chain. Farmers need fuel for tractors, irrigation pumps and harvesting equipment. Producers need natural gas to manufacture fertilizer. Processors and retailers need energy for storage and refrigeration. Trucks and ships must then transport food to consumers. Energy is embedded in everything.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Green Revolution created a new dependence</h2>
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<p>From the 1950s onwards, new high-yielding crop varieties, synthetic fertilizers, chemical pesticides and large-scale irrigation boosted the production of wheat and rice. This was called the Green Revolution, which staved off the Malthusian specter of hunger and starvation. India was a key center of this revolution and doubled its wheat production between the mid-1960s and early 1970s.</p>
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<p>Before the Green Revolution, farmers in poorer countries relied on organic inputs such as manure and compost to maintain soil nutrients. Since this revolution, farmers have relied on large and repeated applications of industrial fertilizers, especially nitrogen-based products such as urea and ammonium nitrate. These come from natural gas. The US–Israeli war against Iran has disrupted not only their distribution but also their production. A significant part of the global fertilizer trade has come to a standstill.</p>
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<p>Glenn observes that the Green Revolution produced an extraordinary increase in the global food supply. It enabled countries with rapidly expanding populations to avoid the famines that many experts had predicted. Yet its success also created dependence on an interconnected system of energy, fertilizer, water, credit and international transportation.</p>
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<p>Modern agriculture can feed far more people than traditional farming, but only if those inputs remain available and affordable. When fertilizer becomes too expensive, farmers must reduce its use, switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or absorb costs that could bankrupt them. Poorer farmers working with narrow margins have few good options.</p>
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<p>The effects will emerge gradually. Fertilizer must be applied at particular points in the crop cycle. If it arrives too late, farmers cannot recover the lost yield. Consumers may initially continue eating grain planted before the disruption, creating the impression that the system has weathered the crisis. The damage becomes visible months later when reduced fertilizer use produces smaller harvests.</p>
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<p>The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that cereal producers could lose up to 5% of their income in 2026. Lower income means less investment in seed, machinery, irrigation and fertilizer during subsequent planting seasons. Grain markets are therefore likely to remain tight through at least 2027.</p>
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<p>The process is straightforward: Farmers use less fertilizer, yields decline, food supplies tighten and prices rise. Poor families then buy cheaper food, reduce portions or skip meals. Lower caloric intake and malnutrition appear before famine becomes widely visible.</p>
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<p>El Niño adds another threat. The current event could become the strongest in living memory, producing drought in some regions and floods in others. India is already experiencing its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades. Crops including wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton are at risk, while poor soil moisture could affect the subsequent wheat harvest.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Africa and South Asia face huge food shock</h2>
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<p>The coming global food crisis will hit countries with heavy dependence on Gulf fertilizers particularly hard. Sudan obtained 54% of its seaborne fertilizer imports from the Gulf in 2024. The corresponding figures were 36% for Sri Lanka, 31% for Tanzania and 30% for Somalia. Kenya and Mozambique are also heavily exposed, receiving approximately 26% and 22% respectively from Gulf suppliers.</p>
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<p>Large agricultural economies face risks as well. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar supplied 70% of India’s ammonia imports. These three countries also supplied 30% of Morocco’s ammonia. This matters internationally because India must feed more than 1.4 billion people, while Morocco is a major fertilizer producer whose exports support agriculture elsewhere.</p>
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<p>South Asia, North Africa and East Africa therefore stand at the center of the shock. A fertilizer shortage in one country does not remain local. Reduced Indian production can increase demand for imported grain. Disruption in Morocco can affect fertilizer availability across Africa, Europe and Latin America. The crisis spreads through trade networks as countries compete for limited supplies.</p>
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<p>The World Food Programme (WFP) <a href=”https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-projects-food-insecurity-could-reach-record-levels-result-middle-east-escalation” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>estimates</a> that almost 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity because of the war and the accompanying increases in food, oil and shipping costs. Nearly two-thirds of them live in Africa and Asia. This would add to the hundreds of millions of people already unable to obtain sufficient food.</p>
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<p>Sudan <a href=”https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/risk-famine-persists-nearly-195-million-people-face-acute-food-insecurity-sudan” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>faces</a> the greatest risk. After more than three years of civil war, nearly 19.5 million people, or just over 40% of the population, already face acute food insecurity. Several areas remain at risk of famine. Violence, mass displacement and restrictions on humanitarian access make it difficult to reach affected communities, while Sudan’s extreme dependence on Gulf fertilizer threatens future domestic production.</p>
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<p>Glenn warns that hunger can accelerate state failure. Armed groups can exploit desperation by offering food, employment or protection. Rural families may move into overcrowded cities or cross borders, increasing pressure on neighboring states. Competition over water, grazing land and food supplies can intensify existing ethnic and political conflicts.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Indebted governments have little room to respond</h2>
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<p>All of this is occurring at a time when governments have accumulated debt and have limited fiscal room to intervene to mitigate the effects of food inflation. People in advanced economies will suffer and vote out many governments. Poorer countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa are likely to experience severe geopolitical destabilization, sovereign defaults and widespread social unrest in the coming months.</p>
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<p>Note that many of these countries do not have the money to feed their people. Developing countries paid a record <a href=”https://unctad.org/news/developing-countries-face-record-high-public-debt-burdens-now-time-reform”>$921</a><a href=”https://unctad.org/news/developing-countries-face-record-high-public-debt-burdens-now-time-reform” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”> </a><a href=”https://unctad.org/news/developing-countries-face-record-high-public-debt-burdens-now-time-reform”>billion</a> in net interest on public debt in 2024, 10% more than during the previous year. Many already spend more on interest payments than on health, education or social protection. Higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated, place upward pressure on interest rates and make refinancing existing debt even more expensive.</p>
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<p>Governments will face impossible choices. Food and fuel subsidies can protect consumers temporarily, but they are costly and often poorly targeted. Removing them can provoke demonstrations and riots. Retaining them can deepen fiscal deficits, weaken currencies and increase the risk of sovereign default.</p>
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<p>Food-exporting governments may impose restrictions to protect domestic consumers. Such measures can reduce prices at home, but they tighten global supplies and push prices higher for import-dependent countries. Similar decisions during earlier food crises transformed localized production problems into international emergencies.</p>
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<p>Humanitarian organizations will also struggle. They must purchase food, pay for fuel and transport supplies through dangerous shipping routes at precisely the moment when all three are becoming more expensive. Meanwhile, donor governments facing inflation and political dissatisfaction at home may become less willing to finance relief abroad.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn conclude that this is not merely a forecast about commodity markets. It is a warning about the stability of governments and societies. The crisis links war, energy, agriculture, debt, climate and political legitimacy. A shock in the Strait of Hormuz can ultimately produce hunger in Sudan, unrest in North Africa, fiscal distress in South Asia and electoral upheaval in Europe.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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<p></p>
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post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, examine how the US–Israeli war against Iran could precipitate a global food crisis. Disrupted energy and fertilizer supplies, rising…”
post_summery=”In this section of the August 2026 episode of FO Exclusive, Atul Singh and Glenn Carle warn that the Iran war is disrupting the energy, fertilizer and shipping systems that modern agriculture depends on. These disruptions combined with other factors could reduce harvests, drive food inflation and starve millions. Notably, poorer countries face the risk of famine, social unrest and political destabilization.”
post-date=”Sep 14, 2026″
post-title=”FO Exclusive: The Looming Global Food Crisis — How Hunger and Famine Will Trigger Instability” slug-data=”fo-exclusive-the-looming-global-food-crisis-how-hunger-and-famine-will-trigger-instability”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-exclusive-the-looming-global-food-crisis-how-hunger-and-famine-will-trigger-instability/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Looming-Global-Food-Crisis-How-Hunger-and-Famine-Will-Trigger-Instability-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/geJg5Iop62A?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Exclusive: The Looming Global Food Crisis — How Hunger and Famine Will Trigger Instability</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164469″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Glenn-Carle-100×100.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-164469″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle”>Glenn Carle</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 14, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Global-Economy-Teetering-on-Brink-of-Major-Crisis-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/5Ow8cgdvBnA”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle’>Glenn Carle</a>”
post_date=”September 12, 2026 05:23″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/fo-exclusive-global-economy-teetering-on-brink-of-major-crisis/” pid=”164420″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and <a href=”https://fointell.com/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>FOI</a> Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, examine the fiscal, monetary and financial pressures threatening the global economy. The United States has accumulated unprecedented debt while running deficits normally associated with wars or economic crises. Inflation continues to be a problem and essential expenses continue to squeeze American households.</p>
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<p>Additionally, the Iran war, trade barriers, elevated asset prices and pressure on the Japanese yen are worsening strains on the international financial system. Atul and Glenn warn that these interconnected pressures could produce a polycrisis before governments undertake meaningful reforms.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>America can no longer postpone its fiscal reckoning</h2>
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<p>Atul begins with the clearest measure of American fiscal deterioration. US national debt crossed $40 trillion in August 2026, exceeding the annual economic output of any country. Yet the headline figure alone does not capture the danger. Washington continues to borrow heavily even though the economy is not experiencing a conventional recession.</p>
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<p>The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a federal deficit of $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026, equivalent to 5.8% of gross domestic product. It expects the deficit to reach $3.1 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP, by 2036. Since 1946, the deficit has exceeded that proportion only in the aftermath of the 2007–2008 global financial crisis and during the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>
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<p>Governments traditionally run enormous deficits during wars, recessions or national emergencies. Washington has normalized emergency-scale borrowing before the next emergency has arrived.</p>
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<p>No single president created this problem. Successive Democratic and Republican administrations have cut taxes, expanded entitlements, fought wars and approved emergency spending without establishing a credible means of paying for them. US President Donald Trump has accelerated the deterioration, but it is important to remember that he inherited a structural problem decades in the making.</p>
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<p>Rising US debt places upward pressure on interest rates because the Treasury must attract buyers for an ever-growing supply of securities. Government borrowing can also crowd out productive private investment in factories, housing, infrastructure and new businesses. Slower investment eventually means weaker economic growth.</p>
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<p>The problem is becoming self-reinforcing. The government borrows more, pays more interest and then borrows again to meet those payments. The CBO expects net interest costs to exceed $1 trillion in 2026. Interest already costs more than every mandatory federal program except Social Security and Medicare. By 2036, annual net interest payments are projected to reach $2.1 trillion.</p>
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<p>Social Security compounds the pressure. The ratio of workers financing each beneficiary has fallen dramatically as Americans live longer and birthrates decline. The CBO <a href=”https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62217″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>projects</a> that the trust fund supporting retirement and survivors’ benefits will be exhausted in 2032.</p>
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<p>That does not mean Social Security will disappear. Payroll taxes would continue financing most benefits. It does mean the program could no longer make every scheduled payment without Congressional action.</p>
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<p>Washington has only unpleasant options. It can raise payroll taxes, reduce benefits, increase the retirement age, limit the number of beneficiaries or transfer additional general revenue into the program. The last option would merely move the burden elsewhere by requiring higher taxes, spending cuts or more borrowing.</p>
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<p>Glenn identifies a fundamental failure of political incentives. Elected officials receive little reward for imposing immediate costs to prevent a future crisis. Each Congress therefore leaves the problem to its successor. The longer lawmakers wait, the more sudden and painful the eventual adjustment becomes.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Inflation falls a bit but fails to relieve American households</h2>
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<p>Prima facie, the monetary picture appears more encouraging. Annual consumer price inflation declined to 3.4% in July 2026. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, fell to 2.5%. These rates remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but they are far below the peaks experienced earlier in the decade.</p>
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<p>It is true that core inflation has been declining and the overall rate is not historically extraordinary. Yet national averages do not determine how people feel about the economy. Households experience inflation through rent, food, electricity, insurance, fuel and debt payments. These unavoidable expenses consume a much larger share of poor and middle-income families’ budgets than of wealthy households’ incomes. For the last few years, they have been experiencing an increasingly severe cost-of-living crisis.</p>
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<p>Note that a lower inflation rate also does not reverse previous price increases. It merely means that already elevated prices are rising more slowly. Food costs remain around 20% higher than they were in 2021. Rents rose rapidly earlier in the decade, while high mortgage rates have pushed homeownership beyond the reach of many younger Americans.</p>
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<p>Insurance has become another source of financial strain. Auto premiums increased sharply in many states as vehicles, repairs and medical claims became more expensive. Homeowners face rising premiums because of hurricanes, floods, wildfires and rebuilding costs. In some vulnerable areas, insurers have withdrawn coverage altogether.</p>
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<p>Energy remains particularly volatile. The July inflation report showed energy prices 14.7% higher than a year earlier and gasoline prices up 24.6%. The continuing Iran war leaves consumers and businesses exposed to further shocks.</p>
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<p>Americans increasingly use debt to bridge the gap between their earnings and expenses. Credit card balances reached <a href=”https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/ny-fed-credit-card-debt-hits-1point26-trillion-k-shaped-divide-persists.html” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>$1.26 trillion</a> in the second quarter of 2026. Because credit cards carry high interest rates, indebted households can quickly fall behind after a medical bill, car repair or temporary loss of income.</p>
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<p>The above figures reveal a K-shaped American economy. Wealthier Americans own property and financial assets that have appreciated. They can earn interest on their savings. Poorer Americans are more likely to rent, borrow and spend most of their income on necessities.</p>
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<p>Notably, many households lack sufficient savings to absorb a $400 emergency. This vulnerability is not historically unprecedented, but it helps explain the gap between relatively stable macroeconomic indicators and widespread economic anger. Glenn observes that these perceptions matter because they influence political behavior and shake confidence in the country’s institutions.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>War and protectionism are disrupting global trade</h2>
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<p>Domestic economic weakness is colliding with a deteriorating international trading environment. The US/Israel–Iran War has disrupted energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz for six months and has no end in sight.</p>
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<p>Around 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. About one-fifth of international liquefied natural gas trade also travels through the strait. These are no longer passing through Hormuz. This disruption affects more than oil and gas. Gulf states are important producers and exporters of fertilizers and their raw materials. They have now been cut out of the global market. This supply shock is increasing fertilizer prices. In turn, higher fertilizer costs will eventually raise food prices around the world.</p>
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<p>Even vessels that avoid Hormuz feel the consequences of the war. Insurers raise premiums, crews demand additional compensation and buyers compete for supplies from safer producers. Because energy is essential to production and transportation of food and all kinds of products, an oil shock raises costs throughout the economy.</p>
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<p>Not only Hormuz, but also the Panama Canal has experienced a decline in ship traffic. The canal is experiencing a different problem, though. Its locks depend on freshwater from surrounding lakes, where water levels have been dropping because of sustained drought. Lower water levels have forced authorities to restrict vessel drafts and the number of daily crossings. Also, ships must carry less cargo, wait longer or bid more for priority passage.</p>
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<p>Companies can reroute vessels around South America, but this increases journey times, fuel use and labor costs. The simultaneous pressure on Hormuz and Panama demonstrates the fragility of a global economy dependent on a handful of maritime chokepoints.</p>
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<p>As if these disruptions were not enough, governments are adding deliberate barriers to these physical constraints. Trump has revived tariffs as a central instrument of US economic policy. His administration claims that tariffs protect industry, raise revenue and provide leverage over trading partners.</p>
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<p>Canada has responded to Washington’s latest duties by announcing counter-tariffs as high as 50% on US products. The US and Canadian economies are deeply integrated. Components may cross the border several times before becoming finished products. Repeated tariffs multiply costs throughout North American supply chains, fueling already significant inflationary pressures.</p>
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<p>Tariffs may protect selected producers while hurting companies that use imported materials. Steel tariffs help domestic steelmakers but raise costs for manufacturers of vehicles, machinery and appliances. Importantly, retaliation by other governments reduces exporters’ access to foreign markets.</p>
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<p>There is another added risk when governments impose tariffs and engage in trade wars. Uncertainty rises. Businesses invest when rules are predictable. Uncertainty chills investment. Also, tariffs increase fragmentation. Repeated tariffs encourage companies to duplicate supply chains and choose political security over economic efficiency. This may reduce strategic dependence, but it also raises costs throughout the global economy.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Frothy markets are loaded up on debt and AI exuberance</h2>
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<p>Frothy financial markets present a troubling contrast to grim economic figures. US fiscal foundations are weakening, households remain strained and international trade faces repeated shocks. Yet American equities remain resolutely buoyant.</p>
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<p>The exuberance of stock markets is deceptive, though. Much of the market’s growth depends on seven technology companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. These “Magnificent Seven” companies dominate cloud computing, digital advertising, semiconductors, social media, consumer electronics and electric vehicles.</p>
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<p>Their commercial success is undeniable. Unlike many firms during the dot-com bubble, today’s technology giants generate enormous profits. Nevertheless, their dominance creates concentration risk. Investors purchasing an apparently diversified index may unknowingly place a large share of their money in the same small group of companies.</p>
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<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) has intensified this concentration. Investors expect AI to transform medicine, education, finance, manufacturing and software. These expectations have pushed valuations higher for chip designers, cloud providers and companies believed capable of monetizing the technology. Yet many worry that expected revenue streams may not back sky-high valuations. Another bubble is brewing, which will soon burst.</p>
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<p>In contrast to stock markets, bond markets are less optimistic. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds <a href=”https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>reached</a> 5.33% in August, its highest level in 19 years. Investors are demanding greater compensation for inflation, rising government spending and the risk of lending to Washington for three decades. </p>
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<p>Rising bond yields are bad news for the US. Higher yields reduce the value of existing bonds and increase borrowing costs for households, companies and governments. As older Treasury securities mature, Washington must replace cheap debt with more expensive obligations. The fiscal consequences keep worsening and appear gradually before accelerating.</p>
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<p>This vulnerability extends around the world. Global debt surpassed <a href=”https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6672/Reflections-Across-Two-Decades-of-Global-Debt-Evidence-from-the-IIF-Global-Debt-Monitor” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>$350 trillion</a> in early 2026, equivalent to approximately 305% of global GDP. Debt was easier to manage when interest rates were close to zero. At current rates, governments, corporations and households must devote more income to servicing old obligations.</p>
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<figure class=”wp-block-image size-full is-resized”><img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-1.png” alt=”” class=”wp-image-164421″ style=”aspect-ratio:1.5294117647058822;width:840px;height:auto”/><figcaption class=”wp-element-caption”>Global debt is at an all-time record of over $350 trillion in Q1 2026. Via IIF Global Debt <a href=”https://www.iif.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=gXXdfHIsxiZLOl2ikrCGCg%3D%3D&portalid=0″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>Monitor</a>.</figcaption></figure>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Yen troubles may foreshadow a wider polycrisis</h2>
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<p>Those who have been following FOI on LinkedIn will know that none other than Mohamed El-Erian, formerly CEO of PIMCO and now professor of practice at the Wharton School, has pointed out that the yen has been “weakening gradually since the large joint Japan–US FX <a href=”https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/yen-bears-its-time-recalibrate-stephen-jen-2026-08-25/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>intervention</a>.” Furthermore, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the dollar could lose its global reserve-currency status within 25 years if the US fails to maintain its dominant economic and military edge.</p>
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<p>Two top people in finance are warning about two key global currencies. Clever financial instruments and interventions will no longer work indefinitely. The economic engines of both Japan and the US are sputtering. We can expect a polycrisis before either country reforms.</p>
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<p>US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility will <a href=”https://www.reuters.com/business/us-treasurys-bessent-reasonable-fed-consider-upsizing-fima-2026-08-04/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>support</a> the yen opens the global financial system to massive hidden risks, similar to the derivatives that contributed to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08. In simple terms, the US will now help Japan borrow by using Tokyo’s own loans to the US as collateral.</p>
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<p>FOI <a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7491134269956894721″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>explained</a> Bessent’s FIMA move earlier this month on LinkedIn. The Japanese yen was crashing. To shore up its currency, the Bank of Japan could have sold US Treasury bills and used the proceeds to buy yen. However, Tokyo’s sale of Treasury bills would make American borrowing more expensive. To prevent this, the US came up with a way for Japan to prop up the yen through the FIMA facility without selling its Treasury holdings. Tokyo can borrow against the $1.143 trillion in American debt that Japan held as part of its reserves at the end of May 2026.</p>
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<p>Traditionally, the issuing authority, or central bank, conducts repo (repurchase agreement) operations involving sovereign debt rather than a foreign entity. It is a short-term form of borrowing in which one party sells an asset, usually bonds or Treasury bills, for cash and agrees to buy it back shortly afterward at a higher price. Japan can now use American debt as collateral and borrow against it.</p>
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<p>Aiming to safeguard the dollar, Washington is sharing sovereign privilege with Tokyo. This rearguard action demonstrates the weakness not only of the yen but also, more importantly, of the dollar.</p>
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<p>This mechanism is not identical to the opaque derivatives that caused the financial crisis. Repos backed by Treasury securities are standard financial instruments. Yet Atul warns that interventions designed to suppress visible stress can move risk into less visible parts of the system.</p>
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<p>Note that Washington is not supporting the yen purely out of generosity. It wants to prevent Japanese Treasury sales from increasing American borrowing costs. This reveals the interdependence and weakness of the world’s two major economies.</p>
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<p>The dollar does not face an obvious immediate replacement. The euro suffers from Europe’s lack of a fiscal union, China maintains capital controls and Japan has its own structural problems. Yet Dimon has warned that the dollar could lose its reserve-currency position within 25 years. Clearly, structural weaknesses are building up.</p>
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<p>The greatest danger is the interaction among all these pressures. An energy shock raises inflation. Inflation prevents rate cuts. High rates increase debt-service costs. Rising yields weaken bonds, housing and corporate investment. Tariffs raise prices while damaging trade. A market correction reduces wealth and confidence. Currency intervention creates further financial strain.</p>
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<p>This is a polycrisis. Each problem makes other problems more difficult to manage.</p>
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<p>The US and Japan still possess immense wealth and institutional capacity. Yet both are using financial ingenuity to postpone political decisions. Repos can provide liquidity, central banks can support currencies and governments can refinance debt. None of these instruments creates workers, raises productivity or repairs public finances.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn fear that meaningful reform will come only after a crisis makes inaction more painful than compromise. If they are right, the next global upheaval will not result from a single catastrophic mistake. It will occur when several deferred reckonings arrive at once.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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<p></p>
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post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, examine the fiscal, monetary and financial pressures threatening the global economy. The United States has accumulated unprecedented…”
post_summery=”In this section of the August 2026 episode of FO Exclusive, Atul Singh and Glenn Carle warn that mounting debt, persistent deficits and increasing interest costs are weakening the US economy. Many other countries also face the same problems. They examine how disruptions in trade routes, tariffs and rising risks in financial markets magnify existing economic problems. A polycrisis could hit the global economy before countries adopt long-overdue reforms.”
post-date=”Sep 12, 2026″
post-title=”FO Exclusive: Global Economy Teetering on Brink of Major Crisis” slug-data=”fo-exclusive-global-economy-teetering-on-brink-of-major-crisis”>
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Global-Economy-Teetering-on-Brink-of-Major-Crisis-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/5Ow8cgdvBnA?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Exclusive: Global Economy Teetering on Brink of Major Crisis</h3>
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<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Glenn-Carle-100×100.jpg” />
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<span id=”date-auth-164420″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle”>Glenn Carle</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 12, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Global-Lightning-Roundup-of-August-2026-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/ItrKP7fzq1U”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle’>Glenn Carle</a>”
post_date=”September 11, 2026 07:20″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-exclusive-lightning-roundup-of-august-2026-writeup/” pid=”164405″
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<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and <a href=”https://fointell.com/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>FOI</a> Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, dive into the most important world news of the last month. Old assumptions about borders, alliances and political authority are beginning to break down. Atul and Glenn examine how governments are responding to this new world order — sometimes with courage and opportunism. Principled leadership remains possible but increasingly rare as institutions struggle to manage migration, geopolitical rivalry, corporate power and political turmoil.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The Ceuta crisis exposes Europe’s migration divisions</h2>
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<p>The <a href=”https://www.cfr.org/articles/spains-migration-surge-tests-eu-border-policy” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>Ceuta crisis</a> continues to rock Spain and Europe. Spain <a href=”https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57305882″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>has</a> two enclaves in North Africa: Ceuta and Melilla. They are the only European territory on mainland Africa. Morocco has never recognized Spanish ownership of these two enclaves and four other smaller territories in the narrow strait of Gibraltar. Morocco claims them as a “historical and geographical right,” while Spain maintains that its sovereignty over the territories is absolute, non-negotiable and outside of any diplomatic discussion.</p>
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<p>On July 30 and 31, 60,000–80,000 people, largely young men, swam over from Morocco to Ceuta. This overwhelmed local authorities, prompted the deployment of the Spanish military and reopened the European Union’s deepest divisions over immigration. Some capitals <a href=”https://www.ft.com/content/53157379-e404-4798-bc86-dd76927e0497?syn-25a6b1a6=1″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>called</a> for a suspension of free movement with Spain. Now analysts say the Ceuta crisis is a first test of the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum.</p>
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<p>The US State Department claimed that the Spanish government had led efforts “to enable and facilitate mass illegal migration into Europe.” Denmark and Italy led a similar critique at the EU. They sent a letter cosigned by 22 member states calling for coordinated EU border measures.</p>
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<p>This year, Spain launched a historic mass regularization program to grant legal residency and work permits to hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government introduced the scheme to integrate undocumented workers into the formal tax system, fill critical labor shortages in sectors like agriculture and tourism, and boost economic growth. Over one million people applied. The Denmark-led letter accused Spain of enacting policies that were a “pull factor” for the Ceuta mass migration. European far-right parties have seized on the crisis to attack Spain and Europe’s migration policy.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Canada charts a course away from Washington</h2>
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<p>In North America, Canada has <a href=”https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2026/08/22/prime-minister-carney-delivers-remarks-canada-us-trade-negotiations” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>walked</a> “away from a bad deal, and what comes next.” In the recent US–Canda trade talks, Canada refused the US’s new terms. Unlike other American allies, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has stood up to US President Donald Trump. The “rupture” he talked about in his <a href=”https://youtu.be/flsgJe8mN-A?si=8d2EaI3g694Gi4-C” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>speech at Davos</a> has now transpired. </p>
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<p>On August 22, after the talks fell through, he declared that Canada “cannot control the storm blowing in from Washington,” but the country “can chart a new course by building Canada strong at home and diversifying our trading relationships abroad.” </p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>From Mecca to Meta</h2>
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<p>Over in the Middle East, on August 7, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed an agreement in the holy city of Mecca, saying an attack on one of them would be an attack on all of them. The Mecca Pact has adopted the motto immortalized by French author Alexandre Dumas: “All for one and one for all.” Saudi Arabia stresses that the Mecca Pact is not a Sunni military axis, but Atul and Glenn think the lady doth deny too much.</p>
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<p>Atul and Glenn move on to Meta in the US. The technology company faced a federal trial because 29 US states claimed that it had engineered its platforms to be addictive to children. This came after a Judge Bryan Biedscheid in New Mexico ordered Meta to pay an extra $567 million on top of the $375 million it was ordered to pay in May, when the company was found liable for harming children. Biedscheid ruled on August 6 that Meta had contributed to a mental-health crisis and he described the firm as a “public nuisance.”</p>
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<p>In the words of <em>The New York Times</em>: Big Tech is <a href=”https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/business/dealbook/meta-youtube-social-media-tobacco.html” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>facing</a> a “Big Tobacco moment” as landmark courtroom losses, major jury verdicts and multi-billion-dollar state settlements draw direct parallels to the historic 1990s tobacco litigations.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The passing of a great leader</h2>
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<p>On August 12, Zhu Rongji died at the age of 97. He was China’s premier from 1998 to 2003. One of China’s greatest leaders, Zhu steered China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Two things happened that year: the September 11 attacks on the US and China’s entrance to the WTO. Zhu had the courage to push through painful reforms that led to spectacular economic growth and integrated China into the global economy.</p>
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<p>Zhu was always a man of courage. In 1957, during the Hundred Flowers Campaign, he criticized Mao’s economic policies, saying that they promoted “irrationally high growth.” Naturally, Zhu was purged and spent many years in the wilderness. Former Chairman of the Central Military Commission Deng Xiaoping rehabilitated Zhu in 1978 and the rest is history. Urbane, sophisticated and articulate, Zhu often spoke with Western leaders and intellectuals. Atul contends that China’s current leaders lack his nuance, understanding and expertise.</p>
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<p>Now, China is charting a very different route and the political temperature in the region is rising. On August 20, Taiwan proposed an 18% increase to its defense spending in order to counter the increasing Chinese threat. “We have moved a long way from Zu’s days,” Atul quips. </p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Some other important developments</h2>
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<p>This month, Hungary yielded good news. On August 11, András Baka became the new president. Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán removed Baka as the head of the Supreme Court in 2011, as he had made the “unpardonable mistake” of criticizing Orbán. This well-regarded former judge will now oversee the challenging task of the drafting of a new constitution.</p>
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<p>There was some bad news too. At Cambridge University, Professor Jason Arday, the academy’s youngest black professor, was accused of plagiarism. He resigned on August 5 amid intense pressure and committed suicide on August 15. The Arday suicide has sparked ferocious discussion in the UK.</p>
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<p>There is much discussion in the US too. On August 5, Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in Michigan to become the Democratic Senate candidate for the state. El-Sayed is a Progressive Democrat while Stevens was backed by the establishment. Clearly, the Democratic Party is rebelling against its establishment, at least in some parts of the country.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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<p></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, dive into the most important world news of the last month. Old assumptions about borders, alliances and political authority are…”
post_summery=”In this section of the August 2026 episode of FO Exclusive, Atul Singh and Glenn Carle examine growing challenges to borders, alliances and political authority. The Ceuta crisis exposes European divisions over migration. The Mecca Pact signals changing security alignments, while Meta’s courtroom defeats intensify scrutiny of Big Tech. Former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji’s death marks the passing of an era and the scarcity of wise political leadership today.”
post-date=”Sep 11, 2026″
post-title=”FO Exclusive: Lightning Roundup of August 2026 Writeup” slug-data=”fo-exclusive-lightning-roundup-of-august-2026-writeup”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-exclusive-lightning-roundup-of-august-2026-writeup/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Global-Lightning-Roundup-of-August-2026-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Global-Lightning-Roundup-of-August-2026-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Global-Lightning-Roundup-of-August-2026-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/ItrKP7fzq1U?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Exclusive: Lightning Roundup of August 2026 Writeup</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164405″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Glenn-Carle-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164405″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/glenn-carle”>Glenn Carle</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 11, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-to-Promote-Interfaith-Unity-and-Counter-Extremism-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/WttLJmra6UM”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/anila-ali’>Anila Ali</a>”
post_date=”September 09, 2026 06:21″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/culture/fo-talks-how-to-promote-interfaith-unity-and-counter-extremism/” pid=”164367″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Operations Chief of Staff Cheyenne Torres and Anila Ali, president of the American Muslim and Multifaith Women’s Empowerment Council, discuss the importance of moderate religious leadership, historical examples of coexistence and the role of education in strengthening pluralism. Ali argues that preserving religious freedom requires people of all beliefs to work together against extremism while rediscovering the shared values that unite them.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The middle path and reclaiming faith</h2>
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<p>Torres begins by asking what interfaith unity means. Ali describes it as people of every faith and background living together as one community while respecting each other’s humanity. Although faith shapes personal identity, she believes that compassion and shared citizenship should remain central to public life.</p>
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<p>Ali defines extremism as abandoning what she calls “the middle path.” Drawing on her experiences living in several Muslim-majority countries before moving to the United States, she recounts facing restrictions on free expression and even physical punishment in Saudi Arabia. She contrasts those experiences with the more inclusive Islam practiced by her family, particularly her grandmother, whom she credits as an important model of Muslim leadership.</p>
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<p>After the September 11 attacks in 2001, Ali felt compelled to challenge the perception that violent extremists represented all Muslims. As she explains, “I felt like my faith was hijacked.” Moderate Muslim voices, she says, are obliged to reclaim the public understanding of Islam from groups that promote violence and intolerance.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>History demonstrates coexistence</h2>
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<p>Ali turns repeatedly to history to illustrate that cooperation between religious communities is neither new nor unrealistic. She recalls stories from her grandmother about communities in the Indian subcontinent where Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Zoroastrians and others lived alongside one another for generations despite occasional tensions.</p>
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<p>Ali also highlights examples from early Islamic history. Muslims sought refuge with the Christian King Najashi in Abyssinia (the historic Ethiopian Empire in modern-day Ethiopia and Eritrea) during persecution in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. They later found protection in Medina, Saudi Arabia, among diverse religious communities. These episodes, she says, demonstrate that coexistence formed part of Islam’s earliest traditions rather than representing a modern innovation — and that conflict between religions is far from inevitable.</p>
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<p>Discussing the shared Abrahamic heritage of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, Ali emphasizes that all three religions trace their origins to Abraham. She argues that learning about other faiths strengthens religious commitment, saying, “I became a better Muslim because I knew.” Rather than fearing other traditions, she feels believers should study them to deepen mutual understanding.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why extremism grows</h2>
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<p>Torres asks why religious extremism appears to be increasing in many societies. Ali points to several contributing factors, including political polarization, declining moderate leadership and educational environments that discourage open discussion. She contends that people are increasingly pressured to adopt ideological positions instead of engaging with diverse viewpoints.</p>
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<p>Ali goes on to criticize media coverage that amplifies more radical voices while overlooking moderates. This imbalance distorts public perceptions of Muslim communities and reinforces stereotypes. Simultaneously, she expresses concern about growing religious nationalism across multiple faith traditions, stating that intolerance feeds further intolerance regardless of its source.</p>
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<p>Ali also addresses the radicalization of young people. She describes cases in which students felt pressured to adopt particular political positions and warns that limiting intellectual diversity undermines critical thinking. Universities, she says, should encourage students to evaluate competing ideas rather than prescribe ideological conclusions.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Education, empathy and protecting pluralism</h2>
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<p>Finally, Ali points to education as the strongest response to extremism. She encourages people to learn about other religions, celebrate different cultural traditions and build friendships across communities instead of relying on stereotypes or social media narratives.</p>
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<p>Reflecting on her own experience as a teacher, Ali explains how teaching subjects such as the Holocaust helped students recognize the consequences of hatred and prejudice. She argues that understanding another person’s beliefs creates empathy while reinforcing one’s own values.</p>
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<p>Ali concludes by calling for Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and people of other faiths to stand together in defense of religious freedom. As she puts it, “We must learn about each other.” Countering extremism depends less on defeating opponents than on strengthening the moderate majority through teaching, dialogue and shared commitment to human dignity. Only by sustaining those efforts can societies resist polarization and preserve peaceful coexistence.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Operations Chief of Staff Cheyenne Torres and Anila Ali, president of the American Muslim and Multifaith Women’s Empowerment Council, discuss the importance of moderate religious leadership, historical examples of coexistence and the role of education in strengthening pluralism. Ali argues that…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Cheyenne Torres and Anila Ali discuss how interfaith cooperation can counter religious extremism by promoting education, dialogue and moderate leadership. Early Islamic history shows coexistence among different faiths is possible; polarization and ideological radicalization, meanwhile, threaten religious freedom. People of all faiths should learn from one another and build friendships across religious boundaries.”
post-date=”Sep 09, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: How to Promote Interfaith Unity and Counter Extremism” slug-data=”fo-talks-how-to-promote-interfaith-unity-and-counter-extremism”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/culture/fo-talks-how-to-promote-interfaith-unity-and-counter-extremism/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-to-Promote-Interfaith-Unity-and-Counter-Extremism-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-to-Promote-Interfaith-Unity-and-Counter-Extremism-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/How-to-Promote-Interfaith-Unity-and-Counter-Extremism-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/WttLJmra6UM?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: How to Promote Interfaith Unity and Counter Extremism</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164367″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Anila-Ali-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164367″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/anila-ali”>Anila Ali</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/cheyenne-torres’>Cheyenne Torres</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 09, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-AI-Boom-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/EjZY3B0BXH4″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/devina-mehra’>Devina Mehra</a>”
post_date=”September 08, 2026 06:13″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-ai-boom/” pid=”164351″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>Fair Observer</em>’s Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and Devina Mehra, Founder and Chairperson of First Global, discuss whether artificial intelligence is creating a dangerous investment bubble. Mehra draws parallels between today’s AI boom and earlier periods of speculation, from the South Sea bubble to the dot-com crash and the rise of environmental, social and governance investing. She argues that transformative technologies can reshape society while still destroying investors’ wealth through overinvestment, debt and unrealistic valuations.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why investors repeat their mistakes</h2>
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<p>Mehra says financial markets quickly forget their history. First Global expanded internationally in 1999, shortly before the dot-com crash, partly in response to the Asian financial crisis. Falling markets and currencies had produced dollar-denominated losses ranging from 50% in Taiwan to 90% in Indonesia. After the dot-com bubble burst, the Nasdaq took 15 years to surpass its peak from 2000.</p>
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<p>Such episodes have not prevented investors from repeating familiar mistakes. Mehra compares enthusiasm for Elon Musk’s SpaceX with the South Sea bubble, in which Sir Isaac Newton lost much of his fortune in 1720. Newton initially recognized the bubble and sold his shares, but rising prices tempted him to buy back near the peak.</p>
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<p>Investor psychology makes this pattern difficult to escape. Mehra cites research showing that depressed market sentiment often precedes above-average returns, while widespread optimism predicts weaker returns. Investors nevertheless tend to buy after prices rise and sell after they fall. As Mehra puts it, “Learning the numbers part in markets is the easy part; keeping control of your mind is always the harder part.”</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Success stories hide widespread failure</h2>
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<p>Isackson asks whether modern investment has shifted from seeking profits to financing companies capable of dominating entire industries. Mehra accepts that network effects protect platforms such as YouTube and WhatsApp, but says this model does not apply to every business.</p>
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<p>Venture capital has made funding widely available to companies seeking rapid expansion. However, its economics assumes that most investments will fail while a handful generate exceptional returns. Investors then remember Amazon, Apple and other survivors while forgetting the many companies that pursued similar strategies and collapsed.</p>
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<p>Even today’s giants once faced severe uncertainty. First Global recommended Amazon in early 2001 after its improving cashflow reduced the threat of bankruptcy. Apple produced almost no return during its first 20 years as a public company, while its stock remained stagnant for years after Steve Jobs returned. Neither company’s later success was inevitable.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A revolutionary technology can be a terrible investment</h2>
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<p>Mehra believes AI may transform daily life, but transformation does not guarantee investment returns. Railways, automobiles, aviation and the Internet profoundly changed society while bankrupting numerous companies and investors.</p>
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<p>AI hyperscalers now plan annual capital expenditure estimated at $800 billion to $1 trillion, compared with roughly $150 billion several years ago. Much of this money is flowing into semiconductors and data centers whose equipment depreciates rapidly. Unlike railways or undersea cables, obsolete computing hardware may have little recoverable value.</p>
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<p>The economics of AI services also remain uncertain. Mehra notes that AI-assisted searches consume substantially more energy than conventional searches, while businesses have questioned whether advanced models justify their cost. Constant changes in leading models and regulatory restrictions create additional risks.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Circular finance and the next bubble</h2>
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<p>Isackson suggests that AI companies, semiconductor manufacturers and data center providers increasingly finance and purchase from one another. Mehra agrees that this circular structure is a characteristic of bubbles. A company may invest in another business that then uses the money to buy its products, creating reported revenue without proving sustainable external demand.</p>
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<p>Debt increases the danger. Mehra says the AI expansion may have generated around $1 trillion in borrowing, including liabilities raised through smaller companies building facilities for major technology groups. Leverage can magnify gains during a boom but rapidly multiply losses when prices fall.</p>
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<p>She compares AI enthusiasm with the earlier Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investment boom. Thousands of ESG funds later closed, merged or abandoned the label. Mehra argues that much of asset management is an “asset-gathering industry” that launches fashionable funds when public interest is near its peak, ensuring management fees while investors bear the losses.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Risks are rising, but timing is impossible</h2>
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<p>Mehra declines predicting whether the AI bubble will burst within months. Bubbles often continue longer than skeptics expect, while market shocks frequently come from risks investors have overlooked.</p>
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<p>She nevertheless sees growing fragility in AI spending, corporate borrowing, leveraged semiconductor investments and illiquid private-credit funds. Simultaneously, market performance is already broadening beyond technology. Smaller companies and traditional industries have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, while several major technology stocks have weakened.</p>
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<p>AI may revolutionize society without rewarding today’s most enthusiastic investors. For Mehra, the crucial distinction is between correctly identifying a transformative technology and paying a price that can produce sustainable returns.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson and Devina Mehra, Founder and Chairperson of First Global, discuss whether artificial intelligence is creating a dangerous investment bubble. Mehra draws parallels between today’s AI boom and earlier periods of speculation, from the South…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Peter Isackson and Devina Mehra examine whether soaring investment in artificial intelligence has created a dangerous bubble. Even revolutionary technologies can produce heavy investor losses because enthusiasm encourages overinvestment, debt and unrealistic valuations. Although risks are growing, experts cannot reliably predict when the bubble will burst.”
post-date=”Sep 08, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Making Sense of the AI Boom” slug-data=”fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-ai-boom”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-ai-boom/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-AI-Boom-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-AI-Boom-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-AI-Boom-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/EjZY3B0BXH4?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Making Sense of the AI Boom</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164351″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Devina-Mehra-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164351″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/devina-mehra”>Devina Mehra</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/peter-isackson’>Peter Isackson</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 08, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Donroe-Doctrine-The-Future-of-the-Western-Hemisphere-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/fh5lyvfK0qw”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a>”
post_date=”September 07, 2026 06:12″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-explainers-the-donroe-doctrine-the-future-of-the-western-hemisphere/” pid=”164326″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh discusses how the Trump administration’s emerging “Donroe Doctrine” seeks to redefine American strategy in the Western Hemisphere. Drawing on the 2025 US National Security Strategy, he traces the historical evolution of the Monroe Doctrine before examining how concerns over migration, strategic resources and China’s growing influence have revived interventionist thinking. Atul argues that although the doctrine reflects longstanding patterns in US foreign policy, global crises demanding American attention and resources may ultimately limit its implementation.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The evolution of American interventionism</h2>
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<p>Atul begins by explaining that the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy <a href=”https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>places</a> renewed emphasis on building a “stable and well-governed” Western Hemisphere. The goal is to reduce mass migration, strengthen border security and ensure cooperation against transnational criminal organizations while preventing hostile foreign powers from controlling strategic assets.</p>
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<p>To explain this approach, Atul traces the roots of the new policy to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. US President James Monroe declared that European powers should no longer colonize the Americas. He hoped to establish separate political spheres for Europe and the Americas. The Western Hemisphere lay in the sphere of influence of the US. This policy, Atul says, reflected both America’s growing confidence and Europe’s weakness after the Napoleonic Wars. </p>
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<p>Per the Monroe Doctrine, “The American continents were to remain free of European imperial control.” This doctrine became more assertive as American power expanded during the 19th century. Territorial expansion, the 1846–48 Mexican–American War and the 1898 Spanish–American War all reinforced Washington’s influence across the hemisphere.</p>
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<p>The decisive shift came with Theodore Roosevelt’s 1904 corollary, which asserted Washington’s right to intervene in Latin American countries, which were experiencing what this charismatic president described as chronic wrongdoing. According to Atul, this established the interventionist approach that shaped much of 20th-century US policy, including support for anti-communist military governments during the Cold War. After the Soviet Union collapsed, however, Washington shifted its emphasis toward democratization as ideological competition with the Soviet Union now firmly ended.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>China’s rise reshapes the strategic landscape</h2>
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<p>Atul states that China’s rapid economic rise has fundamentally altered the strategic balance in Latin America. He highlights the dramatic expansion of trade between China and Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, as a key example of one of the most striking economic phenomena in the history of global trade. Today, China is Brazil’s biggest trading partner, with both the EU and the US lagging quite far behind. China-Brazil trade grew 50-fold from $3.2 billion in 2001 to $158 billion in 2024, as the graph below from CEIC shows.</p>
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<figure class=”wp-block-image size-large”><img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/graf-1024×457.png” alt=”” class=”wp-image-164332″ style=”aspect-ratio:2.9295774647887325″/></figure>
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<p>China imports Brazilian commodities such as soybeans, cotton, sugar, beef, wood, oil and iron ore. China consumes the output of Brazil’s mines, ranches, farms and forests. In return, China sells all sorts of manufactured goods from cellphones to electric vehicles. The Chinese are also investing heavily in power utilities, ports and railways. </p>
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<p>The rise of China has revived anxieties in Washington similar to those experienced during the Cold War. Note that this time, the competition is primarily economic rather than ideological. Some argue that it is therefore more dangerous.</p>
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<p>In response, the Trump administration has developed what many call the Donroe Doctrine, built on three pillars: active interventionism, gunboat diplomacy and economic nationalism. Together, these policies seek to protect supply chains, secure access to critical minerals and reduce China’s regional influence.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Successes, obstacles and regional realities</h2>
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<p>Atul points to several policies that reflect this new strategy, including pressure on Panama over the canal, sanctions against Cuba and Nicaragua, and financial support for Argentina under Argentinean President Javier Milei. Washington has expanded its influence over Venezuelan and Guyanese energy resources. The Trump administration has also been increasing pressure on countries that it views as strategically important.</p>
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<p>Despite many advantages, the US is not having everything its way. Many countries in the Western Hemisphere are resisting the Donroe Doctrine. Canada opposes closer political integration with the US, while, as pointed out above, , Brazil’s economy remains closely connected to China’s. Even governments more sympathetic to Washington would struggle to redirect exports away from China because American producers already satisfy much of the domestic demand for products such as soybeans and beef. There is simply no substitute for Chinese demand in Latin America.</p>
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<p>As Atul says, “Changing the economic trends, changing the economic tidal waves is not as easy as controlling smaller countries.”</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Global crises complicate the doctrine</h2>
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<p>There is also another important matter that deserves attention. Atul questions whether the Donroe Doctrine can become America’s dominant strategic framework while Washington remains heavily engaged elsewhere. Earlier, President Barack Obama’s <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/north_america/the-world-this-week-vietnam-japan-asia-pivot-obama-doctrine-32393/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>Asia Pivot</a> did not work because of entanglements in the Middle East. The US/Israel–Iran War has thrown a spanner in the works of the Donroe Doctrine’s self-declared goal to focus on the Western Hemisphere.</p>
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<p>By closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians have produced a global supply shock. Washington has had to devote time, money, resources, attention, and energy to deal with Iran. The Western Hemisphere is no longer top of mind for Washington. As Atul concludes, “the Donroe Doctrine, while attractive, while seductive, might yet have to wait.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh discusses how the Trump administration’s emerging “Donroe Doctrine” seeks to redefine American strategy in the Western Hemisphere. Drawing on the 2025 US National Security Strategy, he traces the historical evolution of the Monroe Doctrine before examining how…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Explainers, Atul Singh examines the Trump administration’s proposed “Donroe Doctrine,” tracing it from the Monroe Doctrine to today’s grand strategy centered on muscular interventionism and economic nationalism. It mirrors historic American efforts to secure strategic dominance in Latin America and is directed not against Spain, Portugal or Great Britain but China, which is now the region’s biggest trading partner and key investor.”
post-date=”Sep 07, 2026″
post-title=”FO Explainers: The Donroe Doctrine — The Future of the Western Hemisphere?” slug-data=”fo-explainers-the-donroe-doctrine-the-future-of-the-western-hemisphere”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-explainers-the-donroe-doctrine-the-future-of-the-western-hemisphere/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Donroe-Doctrine-The-Future-of-the-Western-Hemisphere-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Donroe-Doctrine-The-Future-of-the-Western-Hemisphere-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/The-Donroe-Doctrine-The-Future-of-the-Western-Hemisphere-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/fh5lyvfK0qw?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Explainers: The Donroe Doctrine — The Future of the Western Hemisphere?</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164326″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Atul-Singh-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164326″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh”>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 07, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-Hidden-Gold-Mines-in-E-Waste-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/UTedSW_-K1U”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joost-de-kluijver’>Joost de Kluijver</a>”
post_date=”September 02, 2026 06:08″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-hidden-gold-mines-in-e-waste/” pid=”164261″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Joost de Kluijver, CEO of Closing the Loop, discuss the growing challenge of electronic waste and why conventional sustainability campaigns have failed to address it. They explore the hidden value locked inside discarded electronics, the commercial incentives needed to recover critical materials and the policies that could transform e-waste into an economic opportunity. De Kluijver believes that market incentives and customer-focused business models offer a path toward a circular economy.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Hidden wealth in discarded electronics</h2>
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<p>De Kluijver begins by highlighting the enormous scale of electronic waste. Billions of mobile phones, laptops and other connected devices reach the end of their lives every year, yet each contains dozens of valuable materials. A single smartphone includes between 40 and 60 different metals and minerals, ranging from gold and silver to strategically important resources such as lithium, cobalt and tungsten. Many of these materials originate in politically unstable regions, making recovery increasingly important for economic and geopolitical reasons.</p>
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<p>Most electronics, however, do not see immediate recycling. Consumers frequently keep old devices in drawers because of their personal value, while many functioning products are exported for reuse in Africa and Asia. Extending the lifespan of electronics benefits consumers in developing countries, but eventually every device becomes waste. Once that happens, the lack of formal recycling infrastructure creates serious environmental and public health challenges.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why sustainability needs a better business model</h2>
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<p>De Kluijver says traditional environmental campaigns have struggled because they rely too heavily on guilt and responsibility rather than customer demand. Sustainability reports, lifecycle analyses and moral appeals rarely motivate consumers or corporate leaders. As he phrases it, “commercial beats sustainability” when companies decide where to invest and what products to promote.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Instead, he believes businesses should present waste reduction as an attractive service rather than a sacrifice. Instead of asking consumers to change their behavior for environmental reasons alone, companies should integrate sustainability into products people already want to buy. By making waste reduction simple and convenient, firms can appeal to what he describes as “light green” customers who support environmental goals but prefer companies to handle the practical work.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>De Kluijver used this customer-centered philosophy to shape his business. Rather than framing recycling as an obligation, he aims to make it a competitive advantage that strengthens customer loyalty while reducing waste.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Turning recycling into a commercial opportunity</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The discussion then turns to Closing the Loop’s “one-for-one” model. When customers purchase a new electronic device from participating companies, the company finances the collection and recycling of one end-of-life device elsewhere in the world. Customers do not have to surrender their old phones or alter their habits. Instead, the environmental benefit comes as an additional service.</p>
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<p>The model helps finance extensive collection networks, particularly in Ghana and Nigeria, where informal waste collectors recover discarded electronics before they enter dangerous recycling practices. Over the past 15 years, the organization has collected more than seven million scrap devices while creating local employment and recovering valuable materials that would otherwise be lost.</p>
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<p>De Kluijver believes this approach succeeds because it aligns commercial incentives with environmental goals. Companies gain a distinctive marketing message while consumers receive a tangible sustainability benefit without additional effort. “We need to deliver sustainability… in a way that the customer does want to use it,” he explains.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Building markets instead of relying on punishment</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Singh asks what governments can do to improve electronic waste management. De Kluijver states that stricter enforcement alone will not solve the problem, particularly in countries where recycling infrastructure barely exists. In many African nations, informal recycling dominates because there are few formal alternatives. Simply prohibiting illegal activity without providing processing capacity leaves waste with nowhere to go.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Instead, he advocates policies that create sustained demand for recycled materials. Governments could require manufacturers to include minimum percentages of recycled content in new electronics, encouraging investment throughout the recycling chain. Building regional recycling facilities would also allow African countries to process valuable materials locally before exporting them into global supply chains.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Such investments, he argues, would benefit both Africa and Europe. African countries would transform a dangerous waste stream into an economic opportunity, while Europe would strengthen access to critical materials that are increasingly important for advanced manufacturing and the green transition.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Urban mining and Europe’s strategic future</h2>
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<p>The conversation concludes by placing electronic waste within a broader geopolitical context. Europe possesses relatively few critical mineral resources yet depends heavily on them for clean energy technologies and advanced electronics. Recovering metals from discarded devices, often described as urban mining, offers an opportunity to reduce that dependence.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>De Kluijver says governments should emphasize mutual economic benefit. Europe could export recycling technology, develop local processing capacity and strengthen long-term partnerships while securing reliable supplies of essential materials. He believes this positive narrative will attract far broader support than older sustainability campaigns rooted primarily in virtue.</p>
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<p>De Kluijver closes by encouraging commercially minded entrepreneurs to bring greater creativity into waste reduction. “It is a beautiful topic especially when you look at this from a commercial… perspective,” he says, arguing that innovation and profit can become powerful tools for solving one of the technology sector’s fastest-growing environmental challenges.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Joost de Kluijver, CEO of Closing the Loop, discuss the growing challenge of electronic waste and why conventional sustainability campaigns have failed to address it. They explore the hidden value locked inside discarded electronics, the commercial incentives needed…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Atul Singh and Joost de Kluijver discuss how electronic waste has become an environmental challenge and source of critical materials. Sustainability efforts should focus on customer needs to make waste reduction commercially attractive. Business models like One for One benefit tech companies and society, and stronger recycling capacity could help Europe secure essential materials.”
post-date=”Sep 02, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Making Sense of the Hidden Gold Mines in e-Waste” slug-data=”fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-hidden-gold-mines-in-e-waste”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-hidden-gold-mines-in-e-waste/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-Hidden-Gold-Mines-in-E-Waste-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-Hidden-Gold-Mines-in-E-Waste-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-Hidden-Gold-Mines-in-E-Waste-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/UTedSW_-K1U?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Making Sense of the Hidden Gold Mines in e-Waste</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164261″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Joost-de-Kluijver-150×150.jpg.webp” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164261″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/joost-de-kluijver”>Joost de Kluijver</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 02, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-NATO-Summit-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/ECXpwUM5dnc”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/lora-karch’>Lora Karch</a>”
post_date=”September 01, 2026 06:09″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-nato-summit/” pid=”164229″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>Fair Observer</em>’s operations chief of staff Cheyenne Torres and independent policy writer Lora Karch examine what the recent NATO summit reveals about US President Donald Trump’s changing foreign policy. They discuss Washington’s pressure on Europe to assume greater responsibility for its defense, Trump’s controversial engagement with Syria’s new leadership and Turkey’s emerging regional role. Karch believes that these developments could help the United States replace military intervention with diplomacy in the Middle East.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Europe must assume greater responsibility</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Torres begins by asking what a reduction in US forces would mean for NATO and European security. Karch views Trump’s position as an attempt to make European governments take greater responsibility for their own defense. The US remains NATO’s largest military spender, while the alliance has long expected members to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Karch feels Europe must develop greater strategic agency while maintaining a united front with Washington. European countries face a continuing security challenge from Russia and sit closer to instability in the Middle East. Although Karch cannot envision an immediate and complete US withdrawal, she considers a gradual reduction consistent with Washington’s declared goal of ending prolonged Middle Eastern wars.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Can Washington work with Syria’s new leader?</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Trump’s meeting with Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa is the summit’s most consequential development. Al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, led jihadist organization and al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and once appeared on a US terrorism list. Karch remains uncomfortable with Washington engaging a former militant whose movement fought American forces, but she regards the meeting as a practical response to Syria’s new political reality.</p>
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<p>Under former President Bashar al-Assad, Syria provided Iran with a strategic corridor for supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon. Assad’s fall has weakened that connection and created an opportunity for Washington to draw Damascus away from Tehran. Nevertheless, Karch stresses that Syria’s new government must meet concrete requirements involving counterterrorism, regional stability and minority protections. Fighters associated with the government still face accusations of kidnappings and attacks against Alawites.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Karch hopes diplomatic recognition will encourage Syria to behave like a responsible state. She suggests that opening a Syrian embassy or consulate in Washington could give Damascus both international standing and greater responsibility. As a Syrian, she also hopes the country will eventually hold “real, true democratic elections.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Karch also identifies Syria’s possible accession to the Abraham Accords as an important diplomatic opportunity. Reports that Syria and Lebanon could eventually normalize relations with Israel remain speculative, but she believes such a development could begin a broader regional transformation. It would further distance Damascus from Tehran, weaken Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah and give Syria an incentive to maintain stable relations with its neighbors. Karch sees this as a possible first step toward reducing the hundreds of US military installations across the region to a much smaller presence. Diplomacy would not eliminate American involvement, but it could substantially reduce Washington’s reliance on force.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Turkey returns to the NATO fold</h2>
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<p>Turkey’s prominence at the summit signals another diplomatic realignment. Karch argues that Ankara is moving closer to its NATO partners after years of tension under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Washington is also seeking a Turkish role in efforts to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially involving Turkish troops and Syrian fighters.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Turkey’s history of conflict with Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq remains a serious obstacle. Western governments must therefore press Ankara to avoid renewed hostility while encouraging it to accept greater regional responsibility. Karch believes treating Turkey as a consequential NATO partner may persuade it to behave accordingly. The strategy allows Washington to delegate security tasks instead of relying primarily on American military power.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Can the Middle East manage its own security?</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Karch sees Trump’s diplomacy with Syria and Turkey as part of a possible transition from war to political engagement. US priorities remain preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and limiting Tehran’s support for Hezbollah. Syria’s separation from Iran could advance all three objectives.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Regional diplomacy also suggests that Middle Eastern states can assume more responsibility. Oman is mediating with Iran, while Saudi Arabia has signed a joint defense pact with Pakistan. Karch concludes that Washington should “demonstrate a little more restraint” and allow regional countries greater control over their own affairs. If these diplomatic initiatives succeed, the US could reduce its extensive military footprint without abandoning its central security interests.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s operations chief of staff Cheyenne Torres and independent policy writer Lora Karch examine what the recent NATO summit reveals about US President Donald Trump’s changing foreign policy. They discuss Washington’s pressure on Europe to assume greater responsibility for its…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Cheyenne Torres and Lora Karch discuss how the recent NATO summit reflects an American shift toward diplomacy. Europe and the Middle East assume greater responsibility for their own security as Washington reduces its military role. Greater regional autonomy and diplomatic cooperation could allow Washington to reduce its military presence in those regions.”
post-date=”Sep 01, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Making Sense of the NATO Summit” slug-data=”fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-nato-summit”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-making-sense-of-the-nato-summit/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-NATO-Summit-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-NATO-Summit-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Making-Sense-of-the-NATO-Summit-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/ECXpwUM5dnc?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Making Sense of the NATO Summit</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164229″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Lora-Karch-100×100.jpg.webp” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164229″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/lora-karch”>Lora Karch</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/cheyenne-torres’>Cheyenne Torres</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>September 01, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AI-Expectation-vs-Reality-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/4eeMS1qhWbI”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/dirk-lueth’>Dirk Lueth</a>”
post_date=”August 30, 2026 06:15″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/more/science/fo-talks-ai-expectation-vs-reality/” pid=”164197″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>Fair Observer</em>’s operations chief of staff Cheyenne Torres and entrepreneur Dirk Lueth, co-founder and co-CEO of Upland, examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping economies, employment and the media. Lueth explains why today’s generative AI differs from traditional software and traces its development from an academic concept to a widely accessible technology. Although he acknowledges the risks of job displacement, concentrated corporate power and excessive investment, he expects AI to increase productivity and create new opportunities. He believes that human judgment, trusted institutions and energy infrastructure will become increasingly valuable as AI grows more powerful.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>From rigid rules to statistical models</h2>
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<p>Torres begins by asking what AI actually means. Lueth distinguishes it from traditional software, which relied on programmers writing deterministic rules. Large language models instead analyze vast amounts of human-created material and identify statistical patterns in language. They can generate useful responses across fields ranging from medicine to law, but Lueth stresses that they have no consciousness or human understanding.</p>
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<p>He also distinguishes chatbots from AI agents. A chatbot usually responds to an individual request, much like a search engine. An agent can perform a continuing assignment, complete multiple steps and act more like a virtual worker.</p>
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<p>AI itself is not new. Researchers coined the term at Dartmouth College in 1956, but Lueth describes the following decades as a period of overpromising. Technical breakthroughs eventually brought AI closer to public expectations. AlexNet advanced image recognition in 2012, Google researchers introduced the transformer architecture in 2017 and ChatGPT made generative AI accessible to the public in 2022.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Expertise gets cheaper</h2>
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<p>Lueth considers AI revolutionary because it spreads knowledge and reduces the cost of accessing expertise. People can now ask an AI system for help with household repairs or basic financial and legal questions instead of immediately consulting a professional. Scientists and physicians can also use the technology to accelerate research or analyze medical images.</p>
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<p>Businesses may experience equally profound changes. Lueth says AI allows smaller organizations to compete with larger companies because employees can accomplish more with fewer resources. He estimates that Upland, a virtual property game that combines elements of <em>Monopoly</em> and <em>The Sims</em>, operates with roughly 20–30% of the staff it might previously have required to build and operate such a game.</p>
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<p>Yet the revolution carries significant costs. AI systems consume large quantities of energy while much of the technology remains concentrated among a few powerful companies. Lueth is also concerned about entry-level employees. AI can perform many of the routine research and administrative tasks through which young workers traditionally acquired experience, potentially weakening the first steps of the career ladder.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Standardized jobs under pressure</h2>
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<p>Torres asks which workers are most vulnerable. Lueth identifies jobs involving predictable and standardized processes, including paralegal work, call centers and business process outsourcing. AI can already handle many customer service requests instantly, offering consumers an attractive alternative to waiting for a human representative.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>However, Lueth cautions against attributing every recent layoff to AI. Some companies expanded excessively during the Covid-19 pandemic and may now invoke the technology to explain ordinary restructuring. He calls this practice “AI washing.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Lueth nevertheless accepts that some workers will suffer as companies automate existing processes. The long-term outcome will depend partly on whether displaced employees can learn new skills and move into roles created by AI. He compares the transition to earlier technological changes that eliminated some agricultural jobs while producing entirely new industries. Web designers and data scientists, for example, became common professions only after the Internet created demand for them.</p>
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<p>Although future occupations are difficult to predict, Lueth expects workers equipped with AI to become far more productive. He therefore believes the overall economic effect will be positive even if the transition proves painful for particular workers and communities.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>AI investment may be excessive</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Lueth separates the supposed AI bubble into usage and financial components. He sees no usage bubble because individuals and businesses continue finding practical applications for the technology. More capable agents and intelligent robots will likely reinforce demand rather than cause it to disappear.</p>
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<p>The financial picture is less reassuring. Investors are directing enormous amounts of capital toward a small group of companies, while startups may struggle to raise money unless they present themselves as AI businesses. This concentration could deprive other productive sectors of investment.</p>
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<p>Lueth also points to circular financing arrangements. A chipmaker might invest in an AI company that subsequently spends the money on that chipmaker’s products. Such transactions can inflate apparent demand and obscure whether the industry is generating sustainable value.</p>
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<p>Regulation could protect citizens from fraud and other malicious uses of AI. However, Lueth warns that complicated rules may produce regulatory capture by imposing costs that large technology companies can absorb but smaller competitors cannot. He favors basic government protections combined with meaningful industry self-regulation.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Trust, taste and energy define the future</h2>
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<p>Lueth imagines AI gradually becoming an invisible commodity like electricity or the Internet. Phones and computer screens may give way to conversational interfaces, translation earpieces and other tools that allow people to interact naturally with machines.</p>
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<p>Employment could also change fundamentally. Applicants may eventually present portfolios of specialized agents that write copy, produce videos or conduct research on their behalf. Some software itself may become disposable as individuals create applications for temporary needs and abandon them afterward. As technical expertise becomes abundant, Lueth says that taste, trust and accountability will become scarce and valuable human qualities.</p>
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<p>These qualities will be particularly important for the media. Realistic synthetic audio and video will make it increasingly difficult to determine whether an event actually occurred. Lueth believes trusted publications will therefore become essential sources of verification.</p>
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<p>Finally, he predicts that geopolitical competition over AI will ultimately depend less on which country creates the best model than on which can produce enough energy to operate the necessary infrastructure. Nations and regions capable of expanding reliable energy supplies will be best positioned to convert AI into productivity, scientific progress and economic power.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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<p></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s operations chief of staff Cheyenne Torres and entrepreneur Dirk Lueth, co-founder and co-CEO of Upland, examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping economies, employment and the media. Lueth explains why today’s generative AI differs from traditional software and traces…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Cheyenne Torres and Dirk Lueth, PhD, discuss how artificial intelligence is transforming employment, business and access to expertise. AI will likely increase productivity and create new occupations, although standardized and entry-level jobs face significant disruption. Excessive investment could produce a financial bubble, but energy, trust and human judgment may become valuable commodities.”
post-date=”Aug 30, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: AI — Expectation vs Reality” slug-data=”fo-talks-ai-expectation-vs-reality”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/more/science/fo-talks-ai-expectation-vs-reality/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AI-Expectation-vs-Reality-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AI-Expectation-vs-Reality-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AI-Expectation-vs-Reality-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/4eeMS1qhWbI?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: AI — Expectation vs Reality</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164197″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Dirk-5-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164197″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/dirk-lueth”>Dirk Lueth</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/cheyenne-torres’>Cheyenne Torres</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 30, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Changing-Balance-of-Power-in-Northeast-Asia-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/coxPXStDEWY”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/david-mahon’>David Mahon</a>”
post_date=”August 28, 2026 08:59″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-changing-balance-of-power-in-northeast-asia/” pid=”164167″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Beijing-based Kiwi investor David Mahon examine Northeast Asia’s changing balance of power. They discuss declining US military influence, deepening cooperation among China, Russia and North Korea and the growing strategic uncertainty confronting Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. Mahon argues that Northeast Asia will become increasingly important to the global economy, but China’s overriding priority will remain its domestic stability.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>China anchors Northeast Asia</h2>
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<p>Mahon defines Northeast Asia as a region centered on China and extending toward the Korean Peninsula, Japan, the Philippines and the Western Pacific. Since the Korean War, Beijing has perceived the US presence in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines as a potential barrier to Chinese trade and naval access.</p>
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<p>Russia also plays an important role. Its vast eastern territories border China and reach the Pacific, while its disputed islands have prevented Moscow and Tokyo from concluding a formal peace treaty since World War II. Russia’s eastern regions have become more economically significant as China buys Russian oil, gas and other natural resources.</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, North Korea has gained leverage by supplying Russia with ammunition, missiles and personnel for its war against Ukraine. Beijing once kept Pyongyang on economic life support while advocating a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Now, Mahon says, China appears more willing to accept North Korea’s nuclear program as an established reality.</p>
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<p>Pyongyang has exploited competition between its neighbors, obtaining support from Russia before securing additional food, fuel and grain from China. Mahon believes greater Chinese and Russian engagement could also restrain North Korea because Pyongyang now has valuable external relationships to preserve.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>US retrenchment creates uncertainty</h2>
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<p>Mahon identifies declining US military capacity as the most consequential regional change. Washington has transferred missile defenses and military assets from East Asia to the Persian Gulf, weakening the protection available to Japan and South Korea. Replacing depleted munitions could take years.</p>
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<p>Japan has responded by increasing defense spending and reconsidering the constitutional restrictions on its military. The Philippines has also strengthened security cooperation with the United States. Yet Mahon questions whether Washington can sustain its commitments while fighting costly wars elsewhere.</p>
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<p>He argues that China does not intend to invade its neighbors. Beijing principally wants the US military to withdraw from the waters around China and seeks stable economic relations across the region. Mahon also downplays territorial disputes between China and Japan, although Singh notes that historical grievances, nationalism and human miscalculation could still turn limited disputes into larger confrontations.</p>
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<p>As confidence in American guarantees declines, Mahon expects regional governments to pursue pragmatic agreements with Beijing. China’s neighbors cannot individually contain it, but they can negotiate economic relationships and limits on military competition.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Asia’s industrial power grows</h2>
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<p>Northeast Asia has become an industrial and technological center. China leads in solar energy, batteries and electric vehicles (EVs). South Korea has developed world-class shipbuilding, Taiwan dominates advanced semiconductor production and Japan retains formidable technological capabilities.</p>
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<p>Mahon sees this transformation as part of a broader decline in Western dominance and a shift of economic agency toward Asia. He rejects the idea that the region’s demographic decline necessarily signals civilizational decay. Smaller populations will create difficult economic transitions, but rising prosperity and changing social conditions could eventually stabilize birthrates.</p>
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<p>Singh agrees that economic power has moved eastward but emphasizes the dangers accompanying this transition. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan feel increasingly insecure as the American presence weakens. China also retains its own insecurities, rooted in the century of humiliation and fears that adversaries could block vital maritime trade routes.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>China turns inward</h2>
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<p>Mahon maintains that China’s greatest challenge is domestic rather than geopolitical. Despite its economic strength, roughly 600 million Chinese people earn less than $1,000 per month. Prosperous coastal regions coexist with areas experiencing recession, leaving Beijing preoccupied with employment, consumption and social stability.</p>
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<p>“Everything it does is for its domestic economy,” Mahon says. Chinese companies export EVs and other manufactured goods partly because intense competition limits their earnings at home. Beijing therefore wants prosperous neighbors that can buy Chinese products, supply resources and maintain stable trading relationships.</p>
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<p>This domestic focus also explains China’s retreat from the most ambitious phase of the Belt and Road Initiative. Projects have encountered political resistance and economic difficulties in several countries. Mahon believes Beijing is relieved to reduce overseas spending and retain more capital at home.</p>
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<p>China may continue asserting territorial claims, but Mahon does not believe it is preparing for a major war. Recent purges and corruption investigations have also disrupted the People’s Liberation Army. Singh remains more cautious, pointing to China’s incremental pressure in the South China Sea and along its disputed border with India.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A turbulent but Asian future</h2>
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<p>Mahon expects China to deepen cooperation with Russia while managing the risks created by Moscow’s unpredictability. China may also assume greater responsibility in Central Asia as Russian influence weakens. This will impose new diplomatic and security burdens on Beijing.</p>
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<p>The wider international environment remains dangerous. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, political polarization in the US and European decline will affect Northeast Asia. Nevertheless, Mahon remains optimistic about the region. Its economic dynamism, technological capacity and growing confidence should encourage governments to avoid a ruinous conflict.</p>
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<p>Singh accepts the strength of Northeast Asia’s rise but warns that rational interests do not guarantee rational decisions. The regional order is becoming less American, more multipolar and potentially more unstable. Its future will depend on whether China and its neighbors can translate their economic interdependence into lasting strategic restraint.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Beijing-based Kiwi investor David Mahon examine Northeast Asia’s changing balance of power. They discuss declining US military influence, deepening cooperation among China, Russia and North Korea and the growing strategic uncertainty confronting Japan, South Korea…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Atul Singh and David Mahon examine Northeast Asia’s growing economic and technological power as US military influence declines there. China primarily seeks regional stability and trade because its domestic economic and social challenges outweigh its geopolitical ambitions. Territorial disputes, historical insecurities and human miscalculation could still produce conflict despite the region’s economic interdependence.”
post-date=”Aug 28, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Changing Balance of Power in Northeast Asia” slug-data=”fo-talks-changing-balance-of-power-in-northeast-asia”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/video/fo-talks-changing-balance-of-power-in-northeast-asia/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Changing-Balance-of-Power-in-Northeast-Asia-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Changing-Balance-of-Power-in-Northeast-Asia-Fair-Observer.jpeg.webp”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Changing-Balance-of-Power-in-Northeast-Asia-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/coxPXStDEWY?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Changing Balance of Power in Northeast Asia</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164167″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/David-Mahon-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164167″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/david-mahon”>David Mahon</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 28, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-Indias-Youth-Cockroach-Protests-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/C4e-smI5CBo”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/sam-tully’>Sam Tully</a>”
post_date=”August 27, 2026 04:30″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-make-sense-of-indias-youth-cockroach-protests/” pid=”164156″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and senior finance professional Sam Tully examine the discontent behind India’s Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protests. They discuss the collapse of the education system, widespread graduate unemployment and declining trust in public institutions. Singh believes the movement marks the beginning of the end for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, weakens his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and damages their Hindu nationalist political project.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A traumatic education system</h2>
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<p>Singh explains that repeated exam paper leaks triggered the protests. Students competing for a limited number of university places discovered corruption; questions were being sold — thanks to leaks of entrance exam papers from the dysfunctional National Testing Agency (NTA) — to those willing to pay. Police subsequently cracked down on demonstrations in Delhi but protesters did not back down. Eventually, Dharmendra Pradhan, the minister of education, resigned.</p>
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<p>These exams carry enormous weight because access to elite institutions often determines whether young Indians can find good jobs. Private coaching companies now receive more money than India’s national education budget. Students may study from morning until midnight at private coaching facilities while schools falsely record their attendance. This “dummy attendance” fosters a culture of breaking the law from an early formative age among Indians.</p>
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<p>Singh describes this system as traumatic. He recalls running away from home at 17 after failing his entrance exams because of social disgrace and family pressure. Government schools have failed. Teachers often collect their salaries but fail to show up to teach. Even poor families with limited incomes try to place their children in private English-medium schools. This extremely unequal system hardbakes inequalities in Indian society. Education has become, as Singh phrases it, a “modern caste system.”</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>A demographic dividend becomes a demographic disaster</h2>
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<p>India has 360 million people between 15 and 29, while two-thirds of its population is under 35. This enormous youth population has traditionally been viewed as an economic advantage. Tully warns, however, that the demographic dividend could become a demographic disaster when rising aspirations collide with limited employment opportunities.</p>
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<p>In 1983, 4% of Indians aged 20–29 were graduates and 13% of them were unemployed. By 2023, 23% were graduates but approximately 67% were unemployed. Singh says graduate unemployment has remained around 35–40% for 25 years, exposing how India’s jobless growth fails to benefit hundreds of millions.</p>
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<p>The scarcity of jobs intensifies competition for university places. Private coaching companies supply the demand for success at entrance exams. These companies earn millions of dollars and have the incentive to bribe poorly paid officials and/or contractors at NTA to leak exams. This creates a pay to play system where merit no longer matters. Exam leaks are not isolated administrative failures but fundamentally unfair attacks on young people’s prospects. They have become a potent symbol of an economy unable to reward education or effort.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The CJP echoes earlier movements</h2>
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<p>Tully asks whether the CJP represents a new kind of political engagement or echoes previous Indian protest movements. Singh sees similarities with the student movement of the 1970s, the anti-reservation protests of 1990–1991 and the Anna Hazare anti-corruption movement that helped propel both Modi and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal to power.</p>
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<p>Yet the CJP lacks the ideological program of earlier movements. It began online after Chief Justice Surya Kant described unemployed students as “cockroaches” as a satirical Instagram page. Young activists appropriated the insult and turned it into a symbol of defiance.</p>
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<p>Singh considers the movement nihilistic because it expresses anger without presenting substantial institutional reforms. It does not ask for institutional reform. Like everything else, the education system is run by officers of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) who know nothing but run everything. Because the IAS is the heaven-born colonial service administering the country, IAS officers are completely unaccountable. The protesters have not asked for NTA to be headed by an educationist, not an IAS officer. The officer who heads NTA today presided over the chaotic AI summit in Delhi last year. He has never been involved in education before. Earlier IAS officers who have presided over repeated exam leaks have never faced investigation or punishment. More importantly, the NTA is legally established and registered as an autonomous society under the colonial Societies Registration Act, 1860. Note that the Modi government did not incorporate the NTA through an act of the Parliament of India. The NTA is neither accountable nor auditable. Sadly, protesters do not highlight these institutional weaknesses.</p>
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<p>In a nutshell, the CJP movement fails to provide an agenda of change. Protesters have yet to demonstrate deep thinking. Note that the CJP’s leaders previously worked with the AAP but have adopted a more cynical outlook after that party failed to fulfill its reformist promises of curbing corruption and increasing grassroots democracy. Despite the many weaknesses of the CJP, protests are likely to persist because the underlying youth discontent with Modi and his utterly incompetent government is not going away. </p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Has the BJP lost its base?</h2>
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<p>Singh states that the protests represent a major political rupture. The young urban Hindu middle class was central to the BJP’s rise, but it is now rebelling against the Modi government. He predicts that many young voters will never support the party again.</p>
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<p>For Singh, this makes the protests the beginning of the end for Modi, weakens the BJP and damages the Hindu political project itself. Atul explains that Modi is a master of marketing, campaigning and political messaging, but lacks substance, ideas and competence. The prime minister has completely failed to address India’s institutional weaknesses.</p>
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<p>Tully challenges this bleak assessment by pointing to improvements in infrastructure, economic growth and the growth of the middle class. Singh acknowledges this progress and points to increased life expectancy since India won independence in 1947. However, he argues that India’s colonial model of governance has failed its people. Per capita income has only reached $2,800. Stunting among children is 35%, which is higher than Somalia’s 25%. Note that the US has a stunting rate of 3.4%, Germany 1.7% and Sweden’s figure is negligible. Modi, the BJP and IAS officers, India’s new superbrahmins, have failed their people.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Crisis could create an opportunity</h2>
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<p>Singh argues that the Indian republic and the Indian state are in crisis. Institutions are failing. The executive, legislature and judiciary are not doing what they are supposed to do. Modi’s authoritarian government has centralized power crazily and made favored IAS officers even more powerful than their counterparts during imperial British rule. This unaccountable lot now specializes in stealing taxpayer money. Indian legislatures, whether the national parliament or state legislatures, do not draft laws anymore, debate issues or hold the executive’s feet to the fire. The judiciary has also become corrupt, nepotistic and dysfunctional. Court cases remain pending for decades. Therefore, police officers engage in extrajudicial killings called encounters to control crime.</p>
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<p>Despite the grim state of affairs in the country, the protests offer hope. At least, people are standing up to an autocratic and incompetent government. If protests lead to some deep thinking and the creation of an agenda for change, their protests could lead to legal reform of the NTA and parliamentary oversight of national exams. It might also lead to regulation of coaching companies and the investigation followed by conviction of corrupt officials. In particular, IAS officers responsible for persistent failures might finally face action for their incompetence, negligence and corruption.</p>
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<p>Tully compares the present moment to India’s 1991 economic crisis, which forced the government to liberalize. Singh agrees. He points out that, like most other countries, India generally reforms during crises. He predicts another major economic shock for the country and expresses the hope that this crisis would catalyze another 1991-style set of reforms.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
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<p></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and senior finance professional Sam Tully examine the discontent behind India’s Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protests. They discuss the collapse of the education system, widespread graduate unemployment and declining trust in public institutions. Singh believes the…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Atul Singh and Sam Tully examine how exam leaks, scarce jobs and failing education fueled India’s Cockroach Janata Party protests. The movement shows the BJP is losing its young urban middle-class base and could mark the beginning of the end for Modi’s political project. The crisis could create an opportunity for institutional reform.”
post-date=”Aug 27, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Make Sense of India’s Youth Cockroach Protests” slug-data=”fo-talks-make-sense-of-indias-youth-cockroach-protests”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/fo-talks-make-sense-of-indias-youth-cockroach-protests/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-Indias-Youth-Cockroach-Protests-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-Indias-Youth-Cockroach-Protests-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-Indias-Youth-Cockroach-Protests-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/C4e-smI5CBo?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Make Sense of India’s Youth Cockroach Protests</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164156″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Sam-Tully-150×150.jpg.webp” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164156″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/sam-tully”>Sam Tully</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 27, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Making-Sense-of-Trumps-Relationship-with-Russia-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/RLwYFBnXx88″
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/craig-unger’>Craig Unger</a>”
post_date=”August 26, 2026 06:24″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/us-news/fo-talks-making-sense-of-trumps-relationship-with-russia/” pid=”164145″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>Fair Observer</em>’s operations chief of staff Cheyenne Torres and veteran investigative journalist and author Craig Unger discuss US President Donald Trump’s decades-long connections to Russian figures and Unger’s argument that Soviet and Russian intelligence cultivated Trump as an asset. Drawing on his books, <em>House of Trump, House of Putin: The Untold Story of Donald Trump and the Russian Mafia</em> and <em>American Kompromat: How the KGB Cultivated Donald Trump, and Related Tales of Sex, Greed, Power, and Treachery</em>, Unger traces these relationships through Trump’s real estate dealings, his 1987 visit to the Soviet Union and Russia’s documented interference in the 2016 US presidential election. Torres and Unger also examine social media’s impact on political discourse and the challenges facing investigative journalists in an increasingly fragmented information environment.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Russian money in Trump’s pocket?</h2>
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<p>Unger traces Trump’s connections with figures linked to Russian organized crime to at least 1984. That year, David Bogatin, whom FBI files connected to the Russian mafia, bought five Trump Tower condominiums for $6 million in cash. A New York State investigation linked the transaction to money laundering, he says.</p>
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<p>This was not an isolated episode. Unger’s research identified 13 people connected to the Russian mafia who either lived in or owned condominiums in Trump Tower. He further alleges that more than $1 billion in Russian money eventually passed through Trump or Trump-branded properties.</p>
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<p>Unger emphasizes that Soviet organized crime differed from traditional American organized crime because of its connections with the Soviet security apparatus. This overlap, he says, made Trump’s relationships potentially significant beyond ordinary financial crime.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Did the KGB cultivate Trump?</h2>
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<p>Unger pushes the timeline back to 1980, when Trump oversaw development on the Grand Hyatt New York. The hotel bought televisions from Joy-Lud Electronics, a company associated with businessmen Semyon Kislin and Tamir Sapir. Unger alleges that both men had connections to Soviet intelligence and describes the relationship as an early point of contact between Trump’s business world and people linked to the KGB.</p>
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<p>His case relies partly on Yuri Shvets, a former KGB officer who served in Washington under journalistic cover during the 1980s. Unger claims Soviet intelligence gradually cultivated Trump, and that the KGB then helped arrange his first trip to the Soviet Union in 1987.</p>
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<p>Unger distinguishes between an intelligence “agent,” who knowingly works for an intelligence service, and an “asset,” whose relationship can be much less formal. On that basis, he argues that Trump became a Russian intelligence asset.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Russia’s 2016 election interference</h2>
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<p>Torres and Unger turn from Trump’s personal history to documented Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Unger points to both the Mueller investigation and the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee investigation as evidence of Moscow’s efforts to influence American politics.</p>
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<p>One episode involved Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and Konstantin Kilimnik, whom the Senate Intelligence Committee identified as a Russian intelligence officer. Unger states that Manafort shared internal Trump campaign polling information with Kilimnik during the campaign.</p>
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<p>Russia’s Internet Research Agency also conducted a wide-ranging social media influence operation targeting American voters. Unger posits that such activities illustrate how social media has transformed foreign interference by allowing political actors to manipulate information environments at enormous scale.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Social media fractures political reality</h2>
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<p>For Unger, the larger danger extends beyond any individual election. Social media has divided Americans into increasingly isolated political communities that no longer agree on basic facts.</p>
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<p>He connects this phenomenon to Vladislav Surkov, a former influential Kremlin advisor. Rather than relying simply on repeated propaganda, Unger says, the newer model floods the information environment with competing and contradictory narratives. The objective is not necessarily to persuade audiences that one account is correct but to make certainty itself difficult.</p>
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<p>Unger also criticizes Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s ownership of the social media platform X, formerly Twitter. He contends that Musk’s changes to the platform have favored Trump and conservative political content.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Journalists must pursue truth</h2>
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<p>Torres closes by asking what younger journalists can learn from Unger’s five decades in investigative reporting. He contrasts the current media environment with the eras of Watergate, the Pentagon Papers and reporting on the My Lai massacre, when major investigations could produce congressional action and profound political consequences.</p>
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<p>Unger warns particularly against access journalism. Close relationships with powerful sources may produce information, he says, but they can also leave reporters dependent on maintaining those relationships. His second warning concerns “both-sidesism.” Fairness requires journalists to represent competing claims accurately, but it does not require treating demonstrably unequal claims as equally credible.</p>
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<p>Journalism’s fundamental obligation remains establishing what is true. Yet fragmented audiences, social media and intense political polarization make that task increasingly difficult. Investigative journalism still uncovers consequential facts, but its political impact depends on institutions and citizens staying willing to act on them.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
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<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Fair Observer’s operations chief of staff Cheyenne Torres and veteran investigative journalist and author Craig Unger discuss US President Donald Trump’s decades-long connections to Russian figures and Unger’s argument that Soviet and Russian intelligence cultivated Trump as an asset….”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Cheyenne Torres and Craig Unger examine US President Donald Trump’s connections with Russia, from past real estate dealings to Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Unger claims Soviet intelligence cultivated Trump over many years and connects that to Russian influence in American politics. Also, he says journalists must pursue truth over access.”
post-date=”Aug 26, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Making Sense of Trump’s Relationship with Russia” slug-data=”fo-talks-making-sense-of-trumps-relationship-with-russia”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/us-news/fo-talks-making-sense-of-trumps-relationship-with-russia/”
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data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Making-Sense-of-Trumps-Relationship-with-Russia-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/RLwYFBnXx88?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Making Sense of Trump’s Relationship with Russia</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164145″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Craig-Unger-150×150.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164145″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/craig-unger”>Craig Unger</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/cheyenne-torres’>Cheyenne Torres</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 26, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Why-the-US-Treasury-Dumped-Euro-to-Save-Yen-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/pTDhqSUrt0U”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/manu-sharma’>Manu Sharma</a>”
post_date=”August 24, 2026 06:35″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-why-the-us-treasury-dumped-euro-to-save-yen/” pid=”164113″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and <a href=”https://fointell.com/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>FOI</a> Partner Manu Sharma examine the historic US intervention to support the Japanese yen and what it reveals about a changing global economy. They explain Japan’s importance to international capital markets, growing economic pressure on the country and the risk that turmoil could spread through global markets. They broaden their discussion into US relations with Europe, mounting economic nationalism and whether technological advances can resolve the deeper imbalances confronting the world economy.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Why Washington supported the yen</h2>
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<p>In July 2026, the Japanese yen fell to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986. On July 31, the US Treasury intervened to help Japan support the currency, marking the first such US effort to strengthen the Japanese currency since 1998. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York sold euros and bought yen on the Treasury’s behalf.</p>
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<p>Manu states that the intervention matters because Japan remains a major provider of capital to the global economy. Following its extraordinary postwar industrialization, Japan accumulated large trade surpluses and became an important financier of both Asian industrial development and Western financial markets.</p>
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<p>That role helped create the yen carry trade. Investors borrow cheaply in yen and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The difference between Japan’s low borrowing costs and higher returns abroad creates potential profits, particularly when investors use leverage.</p>
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<p>The danger comes when this process reverses. If Japan needs capital at home, investors may have to unwind positions and move money back into the country. Such movements could create instability far beyond Japan.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Japan faces inflation</h2>
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<p>Japan now faces pressure from several directions. Atul points to the country’s dependence on imported energy and how Iran’s choking of the Strait of Hormuz has damaged the Japanese economy. Import costs have gone up and the yen is facing downward pressure. A weak yen makes a bad problem worse because Japan must now spend more of its currency to purchase dollar-denominated commodities.</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has warned that underlying inflation is approaching the central bank’s 2% target. Yet the Bank of Japan held interest rates at 1% on July 31 as policymakers attempted to support domestic economic activity. Consequently, markets lost confidence in the yen.</p>
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<p>Along with loose monetary policy, Japan is following an expansionary fiscal policy. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is spending more than it earns. It is taking on more debt at a time when the Japanese debt has reached about 250% of GDP. The combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies at a time of massive debt and war-induced inflation is putting unprecedented pressure on the yen.</p>
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<p>Manu says the US intervention may stabilize the currency temporarily, but the underlying economic pressures remain. If Japan eventually needs to repatriate large quantities of overseas capital, an unwinding of the carry trade could transmit financial stress around the world.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Does selling euros reveal Washington’s priorities?</h2>
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<p>For Manu, the most revealing part of the intervention is not that Washington bought yen but what it sold to finance those purchases: euros. He interprets that choice as a geopolitical signal that Washington considers Japan strategically more important than Europe.</p>
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<p>Atul and Manu recall the 1985 Plaza Accord, when the United States, Japan, West Germany, France and the United Kingdom coordinated efforts to depreciate the dollar. At the time, Washington sought to depreciate the dollar to reduce its trade deficit. Then, Japanese and German exports were extremely competitive, and American manufacturing struggled. By making the yen and deutsche mark more expensive, the US aimed to curb imports and promote domestic industry.</p>
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<p>Today, the US has different motives than in the 1980s. The US does not want market meltdown or contagion. Japan owns billions of dollars of American assets and protecting the yen is in American self-interest. If simultaneous financial pressure strikes several allied economies, the US has signalled that Japan will be the first to be rescued.”</p>
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<p>Atul notes that many Europeans now believe that Washington views the EU as an economic competitor. In particular, Republicans are increasingly distrustful of Europe. They say that Europe gives empty sermons and constantly criticizes the US despite the fact that Washington has subsidized European security for decades.</p>
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<p>Manu summarizes the distinction provocatively: Japan is “a net supplier of capital,” while Europe is “a net supplier of moral lectures.”</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>The global economy enters dangerous territory</h2>
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<p>The conversation then turns from Japan and Europe to the broader financial system. Manu states that global resource, capital and security networks are undergoing a fundamental reorganization. China has become dominant in industries such as electric vehicles while traditional European industrial strengths, particularly Germany’s automotive and chemical sectors, face growing pressure.</p>
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<p>Europe also faces capital shortages and weak growth, problems highlighted in the former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness. Manu says that regulatory rigidity and difficulties in attracting outside investment compound these structural weaknesses.</p>
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<p>More broadly, Atul and Manu contend that years of loose monetary and fiscal policy have led to inflationary pressures. Today, excessive money is chasing insufficient economic output. They discuss the pernicious influence of Modern Monetary Theory, which held that governments issuing their own sovereign fiat currencies do not rely on taxes or borrowing to fund spending, because they can create new money at will. They also highlight the enormous stimulus introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic along with a dramatic increase in money supply. This was part of a longer period of cheap money, rising debt and inflated asset valuations.</p>
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<p>The imbalances in the global economy have led to a populist counterreaction. Manu points out that we now live in an increasingly mercantilist international system. Governments are trying to protect domestic industries, reshore production, secure resources and reduce dependence on competitors. Atul describes this emerging behavior as a “smash and grab strategy” in which states seek control of resources and territory as economic and geopolitical competition intensifies.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Technology may not provide an easy escape</h2>
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<p>Atul and Manu end by challenging predictions that artificial intelligence and robotics will solve these economic problems. They discuss Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s prediction of technological superabundance, in which automation dramatically increases production and ultimately diminishes the importance of money.</p>
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<p>Manu compares the argument with economist John Maynard Keynes’s 1930 <a href=”https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/1930/our-grandchildren.htm” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”>essay</a>, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren,” which envisioned technological progress dramatically reducing the amount of work humans would need to perform in the future. Nearly a century later, Keynes’s 1930 vision has not entirely come true.</p>
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<p>Manu believes technological utopias underestimate human emotions, inequality, institutional incentives and political conflict. Atul similarly questions whether an AI-driven increase in productivity can arrive quickly enough to resolve excessive debt, inflated valuations and the widening gap between money supply and real economic output.</p>
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<p>For Atul and Manu, the yen intervention therefore represents more than an isolated currency operation. It reveals how the global financial system is increasingly unstable. The US is trying its best to prop up Japan in order primarily to save itself. If Japan dumps American treasuries, things could get very ugly pretty quickly.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a> <em>edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Partner Manu Sharma examine the historic US intervention to support the Japanese yen and what it reveals about a changing global economy. They explain Japan’s importance to international capital markets, growing economic pressure on the country and the risk…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Atul Singh and Manu Sharma examine the US intervention to support the Japanese yen. Washington intervened to save a falling yen because it feared Tokyo would sell US treasuries, putting upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on the dollar. By selling euros instead of dollars, Washington has signalled that Japan is more important than Europe to the US.”
post-date=”Aug 24, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Why the US Treasury Dumped Euro to Save Yen” slug-data=”fo-talks-why-the-us-treasury-dumped-euro-to-save-yen”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-why-the-us-treasury-dumped-euro-to-save-yen/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Why-the-US-Treasury-Dumped-Euro-to-Save-Yen-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Why-the-US-Treasury-Dumped-Euro-to-Save-Yen-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Why-the-US-Treasury-Dumped-Euro-to-Save-Yen-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/pTDhqSUrt0U?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Why the US Treasury Dumped Euro to Save Yen</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164113″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/manu-sharma1-100×100.jpeg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164113″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/manu-sharma”>Manu Sharma</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 24, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-the-Tensions-Within-Israel-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/gdOoDWa7NJk”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/josef-olmert’>Josef Olmert</a>”
post_date=”August 20, 2026 06:14″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/fo-talks-make-sense-of-the-tensions-within-israel/” pid=”164035″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Josef Olmert, a former Israeli government official and Middle East scholar, examine growing divisions within Israeli politics and society. A dispute between Defense Minister Israel Katz and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) over the future of a senior West Bank commander highlights tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the military. Singh and Olmert also discuss divisions over West Bank settlements, religion and military service, rising emigration and whether Israel’s traditional sense of national solidarity is weakening.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Netanyahu’s right clashes with the IDF</h2>
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<p>Singh begins with Katz’s announcement that he would replace Major General Avi Bluth, the IDF’s senior commander in the West Bank. The military publicly disputed Katz’s authority to make the change. Olmert argues that this confrontation reflects a deeper transformation within the Israeli right.</p>
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<p>Historically, he says, Menachem Begin’s Likud regarded the IDF as central to Jewish national revival. Military service symbolized the ability of Jews to defend themselves after centuries of persecution culminating in the Holocaust. Although tensions between political and military leaders occurred, notably during the 1982 Lebanon War, respect for the institution remained deeply rooted.</p>
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<p>Olmert says that Netanyahu’s dependence on religious right-wing parties and the settler movement has changed this relationship. Begin promoted West Bank settlements after becoming prime minister in 1977, but his government also evacuated settlements in Sinai to secure peace with Egypt. Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon similarly removed Israeli settlements from Gaza in 2005.</p>
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<p>Netanyahu, Olmert states, has instead become politically dependent on parties that place West Bank settlements at the center of their agenda. He believes this has encouraged attacks on institutions such as the IDF when military priorities conflict with settler interests.</p>
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<p>Olmert calls this an “ideological reversal” for the Israeli right. Confronting an institution still admired by much of Israeli society could hurt Netanyahu’s coalition in the next election, he mentions.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Religion, settlements and military service divide Israel</h2>
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<p>Singh and Olmert turn to divisions within Israel’s religious communities. Olmert emphasizes that West Bank settlers are not politically or religiously uniform. Some of the largest settlements are ultra-Orthodox, while national-religious Israelis serve extensively in the IDF and have suffered significant casualties during recent fighting.</p>
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<p>At the more radical end, the so-called hilltop youth have established unauthorized outposts outside established settlements. Olmert argues that some increasingly reject the authority of the state itself in favor of a society governed according to their interpretation of Jewish religious law.</p>
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<p>This raises a larger question about what it means for Israel to be simultaneously Jewish and democratic. The country’s founders and much of its population are not simply secular. Religious traditions remain embedded in everyday Israeli life, from Jewish marriage ceremonies and the Sabbath to observance of Yom Kippur.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The more consequential dividing line, he says, concerns the relationship between religious authority and individual choice. Disputes over ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service have brought that conflict into sharper focus.</p>
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<p>Olmert believes the next government will have to confront both the military draft and lawlessness among radical settlers. He reiterates his earlier prediction that Israel is approaching a “third Israeli republic,” in which the political arrangements governing religion, the military and the state could see substantial reworking.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Are Israelis voting with their feet?</h2>
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<p>Israel’s internal political struggle coincides with reports of unusually high emigration. Singh asks whether three consecutive years of elevated departures indicate a deeper crisis.</p>
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<p>Olmert accepts that emigration has risen but cautions that estimates depend on how departures are measured. Israel has experienced similar anxieties before, particularly during the severe recession of 1966. Today, many of those leaving are highly mobile professionals, including technology workers and doctors.</p>
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<p>That composition makes the trend potentially important. Yet Israel continues to receive new immigrants and returning Israelis, including significant numbers of Jewish doctors. Its population also continues to grow faster than those of many other developed countries.</p>
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<p>Political dissatisfaction may nevertheless contribute to departures. Olmert points particularly to opposition among some Israelis to the growing influence of ultra-Orthodox parties. He expects many Israelis living overseas to return temporarily to vote in the coming election, potentially making emigration itself part of Israel’s political reckoning.</p>
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<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Prosperity cannot resolve Israel’s divisions</h2>
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<p>Singh contrasts these tensions with Israel’s economic resilience. The economy grew by about 3% last year, unemployment remains around 3%–3.5% and Israel maintains substantial foreign currency reserves. Singh and Olmert discuss strong investment in Israel’s technology sector despite the pressures of war.</p>
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<p>Olmert describes Israel’s economic performance as remarkable but contends that prosperity does not necessarily translate into social satisfaction. Many emigrants are precisely the professionals who have benefited from the country’s technology-driven economy.</p>
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<p>Israel, he suggests, increasingly resembles other advanced societies in which people judge their circumstances not simply by employment or income but by political stability, personal freedom and overall quality of life.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Is Israel’s siege mentality weakening?</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The larger question is whether decades of conflict still bind Israelis together as strongly as they once did. Singh characterizes Israel as a modern Spartan society because military service and mobilization remain unusually widespread compared with other developed countries.</p>
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<p>Olmert agrees that Israel remains distinctive. Military participation and volunteerism are still high, even if they have declined from earlier periods. Yet he sees signs that the traditional “siege society” mentality is losing some of its power.</p>
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<p>Historically, external threats acted as a cementing force across Israeli society. Today, prolonged conflict exists alongside political polarization, disputes over religion and military service, as well as changing expectations among younger and professional Israelis.</p>
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<p>Olmert cautions against interpreting current emigration or political divisions as evidence of imminent national decline. Israel has endured previous periods of economic hardship and outward migration before recovering. The coming election, however, could determine whether current divisions represent another difficult political cycle or the beginning of a more fundamental transformation of the Israeli state.</p>
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<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Josef Olmert, a former Israeli government official and Middle East scholar, examine growing divisions within Israeli politics and society. A dispute between Defense Minister Israel Katz and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) over the future of a senior West Bank…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Atul Singh and Josef Olmert examine how tensions between the Netanyahu government and IDF reflect a struggle over Israel’s political and ideological direction. Disputes over West Bank settlements, religion and military service deepen Israel’s internal divisions. Despite economic strength and military participation, the siege mentality that historically united Israeli society may be weakening.”
post-date=”Aug 20, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: Make Sense of the Tensions Within Israel” slug-data=”fo-talks-make-sense-of-the-tensions-within-israel”>
<img width=”320″ height=”160″ class=”imgthumb lazy” pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/fo-talks-make-sense-of-the-tensions-within-israel/”
vType=”1″ src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-the-Tensions-Within-Israel-Fair-Observer.jpeg” data-src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-the-Tensions-Within-Israel-Fair-Observer.jpeg”
data-srcset=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Make-Sense-of-the-Tensions-Within-Israel-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vurl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/gdOoDWa7NJk?autoplay=1″><div class=”videotext”><h3 class=”vtitle “>
FO Talks: Make Sense of the Tensions Within Israel</h3>
<span id=”date-authimg-164035″ class=”vAuthor_img fo-author-img”
style=”display:none;”>
<img src=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Josef-Olmert-100×100.jpg” />
</span>
<span id=”date-auth-164035″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/josef-olmert”>Josef Olmert</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/atul-singh’>Atul Singh</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 20, 2026</span></div>
</span></div></div><div class=”videopartbox item” media=”https://www.fairobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/The-Psychology-of-Geopolitics-How-Authoritarianism-Impacts-Human-Behavior-Fair-Observer.jpeg” vUrl=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/mbTuxTrh1CE”
post_author=”<a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/dr-bahareh-sahebi’>Dr. Bahareh Sahebi</a>”
post_date=”August 19, 2026 06:58″
pUrl=”https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/fo-talks-the-psychology-of-geopolitics-how-authoritarianism-impacts-human-behavior/” pid=”164020″
post-content=”<!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Editor Lucy Golish speaks with Bahareh Sahebi, a clinical psychologist and licensed marriage and family therapist, about how authoritarian systems shape the psychology of the people who live under them. Drawing on Sahebi’s professional expertise and her experience as an Iranian American, they explore how fear, uncertainty and collective trauma influence relationships, family dynamics and identity across generations. Understanding these systemic influences is essential for helping both survivors of authoritarianism and those seeking to support them.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>How authoritarianism reshapes the mind</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Sahebi begins by arguing that authoritarian governments exercise power in ways that extend beyond censorship, imprisonment or violence. Over time, persistent fear changes how people think, communicate and relate to others. Rather than focusing on exploration, trust or self-expression, the brain gradually becomes organized around survival.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>She explains that this shift becomes internalized. Instead of waiting for external punishment, individuals begin monitoring themselves, anticipating consequences before acting. As Sahebi puts it, “The greatest success of an authoritarian system is not controlling behavior. It is actually reorganizing the psychological processes that produce the behavior.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>These psychological patterns often persist after people leave authoritarian societies. Immigration changes a person’s surroundings, but the survival strategies developed over decades do not disappear overnight.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Families inherit fear</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Golish asks how these patterns become embedded across generations. Sahebi explains that authoritarian systems infiltrate family life by encouraging parents to pass survival strategies to their children. Lessons such as avoiding difficult conversations, remaining silent and distrusting others become practical methods of staying safe rather than signs of dysfunctional parenting.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>This creates a division between public and private identities, with people learning to present one version of themselves outside the home while preserving another within the family. She says people should understand these adaptations as rational responses to dangerous environments rather than personal failings.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>This conditioning also affects ordinary decisions long after migration. Sahebi describes highly accomplished clients who struggle to ask employers for routine accommodations because they instinctively ask themselves not what they want, but what is safest. “People stop asking, ‘What do I want?’ They begin to ask, ‘What is the safest?’”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Living with uncertainty at home and abroad</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>The discussion turns to communication and the experience of the Iranian diaspora. Sahebi says that communication serves as emotional regulation rather than simply the exchange of information. When contact with loved ones is interrupted, uncertainty activates the nervous system and intensifies anxiety.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Using Iran’s Internet blackouts as an example, she explains that families abroad often spend days or weeks unable to confirm whether relatives are alive or safe. In those moments, even a simple messaging notification becomes psychologically significant because it restores a sense of connection.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Sahebi states that prolonged uncertainty reshapes perception, encouraging hypervigilance, worst-case thinking and difficulty trusting others. These patterns often persist among diaspora communities, influencing friendships, family relationships and broader social interactions long after people have left the country.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Understanding trauma through systems</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Golish asks how therapists can address these deeply ingrained adaptations without dismissing the genuine dangers that produced them. Sahebi distinguishes between challenging unhelpful thought patterns and invalidating lived experience. She emphasizes that evidence-based approaches such as cognitive behavioral therapy remain valuable but should be placed within a broader systemic context.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Rather than viewing anxiety or hypervigilance solely as symptoms, she encourages clinicians to ask what circumstances originally made those behaviors necessary. “Sometimes what looks like hypervigilance is actually wisdom. Sometimes what looks like anxiety is actually accurate risk assessment.”</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>This perspective, she argues, shifts attention from correcting individuals to understanding how political systems, family structures and social environments shape psychological development.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:heading –>
<h2 class=”wp-block-heading”>Reflection, curiosity and recovery</h2>
<!– /wp:heading –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>In closing, Sahebi encourages listeners to reflect on how much of their personality may represent adaptations to past environments rather than freely chosen characteristics. For those from authoritarian backgrounds, she asks whether old survival strategies still serve their lives today or continue to shape relationships unnecessarily.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>For people without that experience, she suggests replacing assumptions with curiosity by asking what experiences taught someone to be cautious rather than wondering why they appear distant or reluctant to trust. Recovery, she states, begins by recognizing the difference between authentic identity and behaviors developed for survival.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p>Psychology cannot be separated from politics, history or culture. Understanding how larger systems shape individual lives, Sahebi says, creates greater compassion for others and opens the possibility of rebuilding relationships around trust, curiosity and freedom rather than fear.</p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><em>[</em><a href=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/leethompsonkolar/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener nofollow”><em>Lee Thompson-Kolar</em></a><em> edited this piece.]</em></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –><!– wp:paragraph –>
<p><strong>The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.</strong></p>
<!– /wp:paragraph –>”
post-content-short=”
Editor Lucy Golish speaks with Bahareh Sahebi, a clinical psychologist and licensed marriage and family therapist, about how authoritarian systems shape the psychology of the people who live under them. Drawing on Sahebi’s professional expertise and her experience as an Iranian American, they…”
post_summery=”In this episode of FO Talks, Lucy Golish and Bahareh Sahebi explore how authoritarian systems reshape the psychology of their inhabitants. People internalize chronic fear, which influences relationships, communication and identity long after people leave authoritarian societies. Recovery begins by recognizing which survival strategies remain necessary and which can be replaced with trust, curiosity and genuine human connection.”
post-date=”Aug 19, 2026″
post-title=”FO Talks: The Psychology of Geopolitics — How Authoritarianism Impacts Human Behavior” slug-data=”fo-talks-the-psychology-of-geopolitics-how-authoritarianism-impacts-human-behavior”>
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FO Talks: The Psychology of Geopolitics — How Authoritarianism Impacts Human Behavior</h3>
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<span id=”date-auth-164020″ class=”vAuthor fo-author fo-author-light mart5″><div class=”date-author list-date-author”> <span class=”byline”> <a href=”https://www.fairobserver.com/author/dr-bahareh-sahebi”>Dr. Bahareh Sahebi</a> & <a href=’https://www.fairobserver.com/author/lucysgolishgmail-com’>Lucy Golish</a> • </span> <span class=”posted-on”>August 19, 2026</span></div>
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display: flex;
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jQuery(‘.close-popup-btn-signup’).click(function () {
jQuery(‘#myModalPopUpsignup’).hide();
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jQuery(‘#myBtn , .sign_up_heaer’).click(function () {
jQuery(‘#myModalPopUpsignup’).show();
});
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jQuery(‘#download_product_popup’).show();
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jQuery(“#contact_us_form”).css(‘display’, ‘flex’);
});
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jQuery(function ($) {
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var scrollOffset = $(window).scrollTop();
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$(‘.fixed-footer-newsletter’).addClass(‘active’);
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