Sir Keir Starmer is marking his first year in Downing Street after suffering the shortest honeymoon of any prime minister in history, despite winning a massive 411 seats and a working majority of 156.After 365 days of his premiership, Labour is lingering in the polls at 23 per cent, behind Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform UK (28 per cent), and one of the defining images of this government so far may be chancellor Rachel Reeves in tears in the Commons earlier this week.When Starmer took office he promised growth and benefits for “working people”, but his national insurance tax rise has left fewer jobs and an economy that is stagnating.He has, though, pledged a 2.8 per cent increase to the NHS spending budget over a three-year period, amounting to a £30bn rise by 2028.Sir Keir has been a success on the international stage, with three trade deals and a pivotal role in the war in Ukraine and crises in the Middle East. He will have brought defence spending up to 2.5 per cent of GDP by April 2027 and aims to get to 3 per cent in the next parliament.The prime minister has become the “Trump whisperer”, winning over the erratic US president while rebuilding Britain’s international relationships and reputation around the globe. Despite the weakness of his position at home, with some in Labour suggesting he could be ousted as early as May next year, he remains the last reasonable option for a leader with fiscal responsibility at the head of a party that wants to take the brakes off spending and raise taxes.But he marked his first anniversary with a significant rebellion, which saw him ditch welfare reforms that would have saved his government £5bn a year, largely on disability benefits.Losing ground in the pollsThough Labour won 411 of 650 seats in last year’s general election, the party took home a more moderate 33.8 per cent of the national vote on a turnout of just 60 per cent, with some describing it as “the loveless landslide”. Labour lost 10%of its vote share since the electionNow, one year later, polls from Techne show that just 23 per cent of voters would opt for Labour in a general election. Yet the past year has seen Reform UK make an unprecedented climb in the polls, at 28 per cent of the vote (according to Techne) – leaving the Tories reduced to 18 per cent.Labour still leads among younger voters, finding favour with 29 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds. But older voters have turned to Farage and Reform, now the first-choice party for a third of voters aged 55 and over.Added to this, confidence in the government is running at an all-time low of just 25 per cent, and Sir Keir’s personal net favourability has fallen to a new low of -46, according to YouGov.Freebies and giftsPart of his rapid loss in popularity came when it emerged that Sir Keir, his wife Lady Victoria and a number of senior cabinet ministers had received controversial free gifts. These included hospitality at Arsenal, worth £8,750 per game, for the PM to watch his favourite football team.£39,000clothes and accommodation donated to the PM by Lord AlliSir Keir received nearly £19,000 worth of work clothes and several pairs of glasses, as well as £20,000 worth of accommodation, from Waheed Alli, the former chair of online fashion retailer Asos. The PM also received a £4,000 ticket from the Football Association to see Taylor Swift at Wembley Stadium. It also emerged that he had failed to declare a gift of clothes for his wife Victoria from Lord Alli.Mastering the trade dealThe UK has negotiated two major trade deals, while a third has come in the form of a “Brexit reset” with the EU. The UK-India trade agreement was years in the making, but was finally signed in May this year. The deal represents a £25.5bn boost to trade, according to government estimates. Meanwhile, as Donald Trump unleashed tariffs across the world, the UK came out relatively unscathed – a feat that has largely been attributed to Sir Keir’s negotiations with his US counterpart. £6.5bn savedfrom negotiating a US tariff deal (estimated)By bringing down automotive tariffs from 25 to 10 per cent, and eliminating levies on British cars, the US-UK trade deal is estimated to cut the blow from tariffs in half – from £10.8bn to £4.3bn, according to analysis revealed by The Independent. The tariff on steel, though, remains at 25 per cent and is subject to more negotiations.Voting recordIn the past year, Sir Keir voted just nine times in parliament, three of which were in the last month. The prime minister has blamed international engagements for his absences.9 votesby Starmer in parliament since becoming PMHe has weighed in exclusively on welfare, assisted dying, immigration, winter fuel payments and the Budget.By contrast, his predecessor Rishi Sunak voted 22 times in his first year as prime minister. Ups and downs in immigrationSir Keir’s Labour can claim a victory in tackling migration, one of its manifesto pledges. This government has in part overseen the largest drop in net migration in recent history, down from 739,000 in the year ending June 2024 to 431,000 in the year to December 2024. At least six months of this period was under his predecessor Rishi Sunak’s government, with net migration already dropping from its peak in June 2023. These figures are the lowest in over three years, following spiralling immigration post-Brexit. Net migration is still twice as high as pre-Brexit levels, and far from the 100,000 target set by David Cameron. Small boat arrivals paint a far less optimistic picture. The number of people crossing the channel has increased significantly under Labour, by 34 per cent. There have been around 42,000 small boat arrivals in the year ending 30 June 2025, compared to 31,000 in the previous year, and the figure is on course to exceed the peak of 45,000 in 2022.Resignations and rebellionsSir Keir has already faced eight resignations by ministers, most notably international development minister Anneliese Dodds, who quit over brutal cuts to the UK’s aid budget from 0.5 per cent of GDP to 0.3 per cent. Two ministers resigned over cuts to disability benefits, while Treasury secretary Tulip Siddiq stepped back amid a corruption investigation involving her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, a former prime minister of Bangladesh. Just weeks after the election, Labour suspended seven MPs who voted against the whip for an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, while a further 42 abstained. 7Labour MPs voted against the whip last JulyThree MPs – John McDonnell, Apsana Begum and Zarah Sultana – have still not been readmitted into the Labour fold nearly 12 months later. Ms Sultana has since announced she is starting a new party with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.The government’s welfare bill, which passed just this week by 335 to 260 votes, faced major criticism for risking a restrictive system that could limit benefits for those who need them most. A total of 49 Labour rebels voted against it. A year of U-turnsIn 12 months, Sir Keir has reversed or significantly altered his stance on five major political issues.In addition to watering down this week’s welfare bill, Sir Keir announced that winter fuel payments will be extended to a further 7.5 million pensioners, after raising the threshold for eligibility early in his government to help fill a black hole of £22bn Ms Reeves claimed to have found in the country’s finances. 5significant U-turns by StarmerBefore the election, Labour promised it would not increase national insurance payments, but then increased employer national insurance contributions by 2 per cent.Sir Keir also finally agreed to launch an inquiry into grooming gangs, after months of deeming it unnecessary and describing those calling for one as “far right”. He also said that the “Waspi” women would not receive compensation for the increase in the state pension age, having promised before he was elected that a Labour government would compensate them.Inflation and debtOverall, inflation has gradually increased over a year of Labour governance, landing at 3.4 per cent in May. This is up from 2.2 per cent in July 2024, the month of the general election, leading to concerns about interest rates.Critics have claimed that after the last Tory government brought inflation down to 2.2 per cent, Labour are now beginning to lose control of it again. £2.86 trillionpublic sector debtThe UK’s national debt stands at £2.86 trillion, up by £130bn since the general election, according to the Office for National Statistics. Overall, debt makes up 96.4 per cent of Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest figures – up from 95.9 per cent last May. This is despite fiscal rules limiting debt imposed on the Treasury by Ms Reeves.This climbing debt comes with a hefty interest bill, to the tune of £5.6bn a year. Benefits and unemployment 9% of the budgetis spent on working-age benefitsAn analysis by The Independent earlier this year found that the number of disability benefit recipients in the UK has risen more than other countries since Covid. However, the state spends less on welfare overall compared with other European countries. Nonetheless, welfare spending made up nearly a third (28 per cent) of the Labour government’s first Budget, at £303bn, with the majority going towards state pensions and benefits for the elderly population. Working-age benefits alone cost £117.6bn, around 4.2 per cent of GDP, which is more than defence and education spending. At the same time, the UK is the only G7 nation that has seen economic inactivity increase since Covid. It currently stands at 21.3 per cent of working-age people.But economic inactivity has gone down over the first year of Sir Keir’s Labour government, from 9.47 million people up to June last year, to 9.19 million people in the latest figures (April 2025).The number of payrolled employees dropped by 115,000 in the last year following the 2 per cent national insurance increase. The UK unemployment claimant count for May 2025 increased on the month and the year to 1.735 million.Female MPsLast July, the UK parliament became the most diverse in British history, in terms of both gender and ethnicity. Four in 10 MPs are women, with 263 female MPs elected across most parties in parliament.72%of women in parliament are Labour MPsThe majority of this group (72 per cent) are Labour representatives, with nearly half of all Labour MPs being women (190 out of 403).There are seven female politicians in the cabinet, including deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and chancellor Ms Reeves. More
