Will Labour lose Gorton and Denton by-election after Burnham snub and who is most likely to win?

The by-election for Greater Manchester seat Gorton and Denton is set to take place at the end of February against a backdrop of tight polling and furious Labour infighting.

The most senior group of Labour’s governing body, the National Executive Committee (NEC), voted on Sunday to block Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham from standing in the seat, citing concerns over the costs to the party of a mayoral election.

Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer was amongst the eight on the ten-person ‘officers group’ who voted against Mr Burnham’s candidacy, later telling reporters that he is “doing a great job as the mayor of Manchester” and having an election for the position would “divert our resources away” from upcoming local elections.

Mr Burnham, who was a Labour MP from 2001 to 2017 when he stood down to run for Manchester mayor, is widely seen as a possible contender for the party’s leader, but would need to return to Westminster if he sought to challenge the prime minister.

A group of 50 unidentified Labour MPs have written to Sir Keir urging the entire NEC to meet and reconsider the decision, which they say has caused a “huge amount of anxiety and anger” and increases the chance of the government losing the seat to Reform UK.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Gorton and Denton by-election, which is set to take place on 26 February:

Remaining a Labour stronghold in some form since 1979, it would be an historic loss for Labour to cede Gorton and Denton to Reform.

Reorganised as Denton and Reddish in 1983 (and becoming Gorton and Denton in 2024), the seat has only been represented by two MPs since then, both Labour. This was first Andrew Bennett, and – since 2005 – the outgoing Andrew Gwynne.

Labour retained a sizeable 13,413 majority in at the 2024 general election, with 50.8 per cent of the vote. However, this was down substantially from the 2019 result, when the party held a 22,175 majority and 67.2 per cent vote share.

Reform came second, with 14.1 per cent of the vote – a 9.2 point increase on 2019 – while the Greens came third, with 13.2 per cent (up 10.7 points). The turnout was also down from 61.7 per cent to 46.8.

This may explain Labour’s 16.4 point reduction, and indicates a trend many Labour MPs are concerned will continue in February.

The group of Labour MPs who wrote to the prime minister said the NEC’s decision to block Mr Burnham’s candidacy “is a real gift to Nigel Farage,” adding: “At this moment of serious public cynicism about politics, denying our local members a real choice … only reinforces the idea that politics is a remote stitch-up from a small group of people at the very top in London.”

Current polling for the seat suggests that it has become a much harder contest for Labour, vying with rising support for Reform while the Green party also digs deeper into the incumbent party’s voter base.

Polling firm Britain Predicts put support for Reform on 32 per cent in Gorton and Denton, with Labour on 26 and the Greens on 22. A separate poll by the group, looking at voter intention if Mr Burnham was Labour’s candidate, put the party on 31 per cent – and at an equal tie with Reform.

Nigel Farage’s party has unveiled right-wing activist Matt Goodwin as its candidate to contest the seat. Speaking at a party press conference in the constituency, Mr Goodwin said: “This by-election is a referendum on Keir Starmer.

“It’s a chance for the hardworking law abiding tax paying people from this seat to have their say on Keir Starmer and to make political history.”