Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump in November. Use our simulator to build your own election night scenario
Mon 28 Sep 2020 06.00 EDT
Last modified on Mon 28 Sep 2020 09.55 EDT
The electoral map has shifted in 2020, amid new challenges from misinformation to mail-in ballots. Previously reliable states on both sides are now looking more competitive.
In the interactive graphic below, you decide which way these closer states will vote, and try to pave Joe Biden or Donald Trump’s path to victory.
Some states remain very likely to go to Biden or Trump because they were won by large margins in 2016, or they have voted the same way in several recent elections. Such states – ranked either a “solid” or “likely” win for either party, according to the Cook Political Report – have already been coloured in for Biden and Trump in the graphic below.
A majority of 270 electoral votes out of a total of 538 is needed to win, and the remaining states are up to you. Can you take Biden to victory? Or will Trump stay in the White House?
Choose which way the key swing states will vote and trace Biden or Trump’s potential path to victory.
Under your scenario,
would win the election!
Under your scenario,
Nobody would win the election. It’s a tie!
… of Guardian readers agree with
you.
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Under a 269-269 tie, the Constitution states that the House of Representatives decides the President. Each state’s delegation casts a single vote with a majority of 26 out of 50 needed to win. This is likely to favour the Republicans, in which case Trump would end up staying in the White House.
Methodology
States already placed in the Biden and Trump camp are those classified as “solid” or “likely” to go to each candidate according to the Cook Political Report as of 9 September 2020. The remaining states have been divided into groups using their voting history and expectations in 2020, to help you decide which way they might go.
Voting history and 2016 margins have been retrieved from the Federal Election Commission.
2020 polling indicates a 14-day rolling average of statewide polls calculated by the Guardian, correct as of the timestamp above. On any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results. If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. After this standardization process, we then take a mean average of these daily entries in order to present the polling average.
Source: US Politics - theguardian.com
