If the polling is correct, Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. But four years ago, the polling was wrong – so if we want to understand the political future of the country, it’s important to look to more reliable sources of information than just the polls.
And to look at some voter groups that could be important.
The early voting data is valuable
Early voting data is an important place to start. There is no doubt that at least 97 million votes have already been cast – those have been counted and are far more precise than any survey. And because those numbers are so high, we can predict that overall turnout is likely to break records.
In Texas, so many early votes have been cast that the current ballot count is equal to at least 108% of all the votes counted in the state in 2016.
This early voting data is much more valuable than simple polling because we also have information about party registration. So we can say with a high degree of confidence that most early votes have been cast for the Democratic party (assuming that people have not suddenly and dramatically made recent changes in their political affiliations).
Based on the 20 states where party ID information was available, almost half (45%) of the votes reported as of Monday afternoon had come from people registered with the Democratic party and 31% had come from registered Republicans. This is consistent with previous elections, where Democrats have been much more likely to cast early ballots.
A global pandemic and concerns about voter suppression have encouraged many to vote early and avoid the potential crowds and confusion on Tuesday. But these numbers are so high that they can’t be explained simply by regular voters casting their ballots early. In fact, of those that have already voted, about 24 million (a quarter of the ballots) are from people who did not vote in 2016 and 8 million (8%) are from people who are voting for the first time.
In other words, turnout is increasing because non-voters are showing up.
Non-voters turning out now are a powerful force
Not least because of his handling of the pandemic crisis, Trump has been having problems with two important demographic groups – seniors and suburban women, polls have suggested. “I saved your suburbs – women – suburban women, you’re supposed to love Trump,” he said at one rally in Muskegon, Michigan.
But perhaps the most important group are those who have not voted until this election. In 2016, 41% of adults who were eligible to vote did not do so. If “did not vote” had been a political party, it would have swept the country, winning all but eight states and DC. So, if we want to better understand what is going to happen on Tuesday, we need to take a closer look at non-voters.
People who do not vote in US presidential elections are younger than those who do, according to survey data gathered by Pew Research Center after the 2016 election …
Source: US Politics - theguardian.com
