If the poll numbers are to be believed, Joe Biden has already won this week’s US presidential race. But after the scarring experience of 2016, when Donald Trump unexpectedly came up from behind, few voters, election analysts, or even pollsters have complete faith in opinion-poll predictions.
One exception is James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign strategist, who says a Biden landslide, plus a Democratic takeover of the Senate, is a dead cert. “This thing is not going to be close,” he said last month. His interviewer was too polite to point out that Carville also predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide four years ago.
The hedging of bets by commentators is understandable but not wholly rational. By most polling measures, Biden has held a clear lead over Trump for months in the vast majority of national and swing (battleground) state polls.
The race is perceptibly tightening. But with four days to go, Biden’s averaged-out national lead was 7.4%, or about 51% to 43%. As of 29 October, he also led in all the top swing states, namely Florida (by an average 1.9%), Pennsylvania (5.8%), Michigan (8.4%), Wisconsin (7.8%), North Carolina (2.1%) and Arizona (3.4%).
Some of these margins are narrow. But under winner-takes-all rules, all a state’s electoral-college votes go to the candidate who comes out ahead, even if by only 0.1%. In 2016, Trump won the college, and thus the election, thanks to victories by less than 2% in four states, including Florida with its 29 college votes.
This time around, polls suggest, the opposite may happen. In other words, Trump could be on the losing end of close results in swing states. There may also be surprises, for example in Georgia and even Texas, states that traditionally vote Republican but are judged competitive this year.
Given that he lost the 2016 popular vote by nearly three million ballots, Trump may nevertheless pin his hopes on pulling off the electoral-college trick again. He has made plain his willingness to contest the outcome if it goes against him. He could ask the supreme court, with its newly enhanced conservative majority, to adjudicate – as it did in 2000 when George W Bush sneaked past Al Gore.
Fence-sitters fearful of being caught out again should also study poll data such as Trump’s average approval ratings. Overall, 53% of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing, against 44% who approve. On the economy, he has a 2.3% positive score but on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, he gets a 16.5% negative rating.
Looked at another way, a current average of all polls suggests 50.4% of Americans have a favourable opinion of Biden, while Trump’s figure is 41.9%. In fact, Trump has not exceeded a 44% favourable rating at any time in his presidency. His under-performance is nothing if not consistent.
US pollsters also assess voters by gender, race, education and religion. While Trump enjoys strong support from non-college-educated white men and Christian evangelicals, for example, Biden is said to be well ahead among all women voters, especially white suburban women, college graduates and Catholics.
Biden is also counting on winning a large majority of black voters. It is thought that the Latino vote could split. Democratic successes in the 2018 midterm elections, when the party won control of the House of Representatives, were propelled by these groups.
Meanwhile, some polling points towards a Democratic takeover in the 100-seat Senate. Republicans, who now hold a slim majority there, have most to lose. Seven out of nine “toss-ups” are held by GOP senators.
It’s always possible that poll predictions of a Biden victory on Tuesday are overblown. But it seems unlikely that Trump can reverse voting intentions that have been firmly in place for months. Nearly 90 million Americans have already voted. It’s too late to change their minds. Even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden’s margin of advantage is so great that he still wins. Probably.
If the poll numbers are to be believed, Joe Biden has already won this week’s US presidential race. But after the scarring experience of 2016, when Donald Trump unexpectedly came up from behind, few voters, election analysts, or even pollsters have complete faith in opinion-poll predictions.
One exception is James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign strategist, who says a Biden landslide, plus a Democratic takeover of the Senate, is a dead cert. “This thing is not going to be close,” he said last month. His interviewer was too polite to point out that Carville also predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide four years ago.
The hedging of bets by commentators is understandable but not wholly rational. By most polling measures, Biden has held a clear lead over Trump for months in the vast majority of national and swing (battleground) state polls.
The race is perceptibly tightening. But with four days to go, Biden’s averaged-out national lead was 7.4%, or about 51% to 43%. As of 29 October, he also led in all the top swing states, namely Florida (by an average 1.9%), Pennsylvania (5.8%), Michigan (8.4%), Wisconsin (7.8%), North Carolina (2.1%) and Arizona (3.4%).
Some of these margins are narrow. But under winner-takes-all rules, all a state’s electoral-college votes go to the candidate who comes out ahead, even if by only 0.1%. In 2016, Trump won the college, and thus the election, thanks to victories by less than 2% in four states, including Florida with its 29 college votes.
This time around, polls suggest, the opposite may happen. In other words, Trump could be on the losing end of close results in swing states. There may also be surprises, for example in Georgia and even Texas, states that traditionally vote Republican but are judged competitive this year.
Given that he lost the 2016 popular vote by nearly three million ballots, Trump may nevertheless pin his hopes on pulling off the electoral-college trick again. He has made plain his willingness to contest the outcome if it goes against him. He could ask the supreme court, with its newly enhanced conservative majority, to adjudicate – as it did in 2000 when George W Bush sneaked past Al Gore.
Fence-sitters fearful of being caught out again should also study poll data such as Trump’s average approval ratings. Overall, 53% of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing, against 44% who approve. On the economy, he has a 2.3% positive score but on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, he gets a 16.5% negative rating.
Looked at another way, a current average of all polls suggests 50.4% of Americans have a favourable opinion of Biden, while Trump’s figure is 41.9%. In fact, Trump has not exceeded a 44% favourable rating at any time in his presidency. His under-performance is nothing if not consistent.
US pollsters also assess voters by gender, race, education and religion. While Trump enjoys strong support from non-college-educated white men and Christian evangelicals, for example, Biden is said to be well ahead among all women voters, especially white suburban women, college graduates and Catholics.
Biden is also counting on winning a large majority of black voters. It is thought that the Latino vote could split. Democratic successes in the 2018 midterm elections, when the party won control of the House of Representatives, were propelled by these groups.
Meanwhile, some polling points towards a Democratic takeover in the 100-seat Senate. Republicans, who now hold a slim majority there, have most to lose. Seven out of nine “toss-ups” are held by GOP senators.
It’s always possible that poll predictions of a Biden victory on Tuesday are overblown. But it seems unlikely that Trump can reverse voting intentions that have been firmly in place for months. Nearly 90 million Americans have already voted. It’s too late to change their minds. Even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden’s margin of advantage is so great that he still wins. Probably.