tudents taking exams in modern history in coming decades are likely to be asked about the nature and importance of Donald Trump’s years in office. Among the questions those future students may have to answer, there is likely to be one along the following lines: “President Trump promised when elected in 2016 to make America great again. How far did he succeed in doing so and, if he did not, why not?”
This should be an easy question for the students to answer because they can truthfully give a categorical black-and-white response: the US is demonstrably weaker as a world power than it was in 2016 because, as a nation, it is more deeply divided than at any time since the Civil War, a century-and-a-half ago. This multifaceted division is not going to disappear, regardless of whether Trump or Joe Biden win the presidential election, and it may well be exacerbated by the result.
American hegemony was originally based on its economic might and by victory in the Second World War, enhanced by the collapse of the Soviet Union, its only rival, in 1991. Its economic dominance has been challenged by China and the EU, though it remains the sole financial superpower. Its military superiority is sustained by vast expenditure but has been dented by its failure to win wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
