At the end of this week, the federal moratorium protecting renters in the US from eviction will end. As the Delta variant of Covid-19 spreads quickly across the country, and with vaccination rates still low in many areas at highest risk of eviction, millions of families could lose the safe haven of their homes. A surge in evictions will have dire public health consequences, but it could still be avoided.

Originally enacted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eleven months ago, the eviction moratorium was established to prevent the spread of the virus among families and individuals that could be made homeless. As a public health measure, the moratorium was unprecedented and offered uniform protections to renters across the country.

The moratorium’s effect on eviction filings gives some sense of what may happen when it ends. Across six states and 31 cities tracked by the Eviction Lab throughout the pandemic, landlords have submitted 351,816 eviction filings since the CDC moratorium was enacted. It’s a sorry testament to the scale of America’s pre-pandemic eviction crisis that this represents an improvement on the status quo ante. Under normal pre-pandemic circumstances, more than twice as many eviction cases – more than 760,000 – would be filed in these jurisdictions over this period.

The CDC moratorium was far from perfect. Landlords could still file eviction cases with the courts, and many renters remained unaware of their rights or without any protections due to local variations in implementation. Despite these shortcomings, the moratorium has clearly been instrumental in reducing filings at a time when we would expect heightened eviction risk.

If historic patterns are any indication, the United States could experience a steep increase in eviction filings when the moratorium expires. Data from the Census Pulse survey indicate that more than 10 million tenants are behind on rent, and only a small fraction of the emergency rental assistance allocated by Congress has made it to tenants and landlords. Even where the aid reaches high-risk communities, it’s no guarantee that eviction will be avoided. Few programs restrict landlords from filing eviction cases against aid recipients, and even fewer have meaningful enforcement mechanisms.

While estimating the scale of the problem is nearly impossible, increased eviction rates and unnecessary Covid-19 infection and death are almost guaranteed.

They’re also entirely preventable. In the coming days and weeks, the actions of federal, state and local policymakers are critical. They should immediately adopt mechanisms that prevent eviction filings until rental assistance can be distributed, such as eviction diversion programs that increase housing stability while making landlords whole. In light of the acceleration of the Delta variant, Congress and state policymakers are also justified in temporarily reinstituting eviction moratoria or adopting procedural modifications that slow the eviction process. Courts can also prevent the unlawful deprivation of housing by adopting temporary heightened procedural protections, such as requiring tenant legal representation, extended discovery periods, and pre-filing rental assistance applications. Courts should also require that the records of eviction cases – a mark that often excludes people from housing in the future – be sealed.

We need solutions that allow us to better understand and address eviction across America. Federal data collection on renters and rental housing is broadly lacking, especially when it comes to eviction. The country also does not have a nationwide infrastructure to provide housing assistance, as has become painfully clear with the slow rollout of aid over the past six months. Institutionalizing, improving and funding rental assistance programs could help many families avoid the small-dollar evictions that are all too common in the US. It’s encouraging that the bipartisan Eviction Crisis Act, recently reintroduced in the Senate, would pursue both of these goals: developing a national eviction database and devoting sustained funding for rental assistance.

These solutions begin to scratch the surface, but to achieve lasting change, the eviction process – which disproportionately affects historically marginalized groups, women and children – must be fundamentally reformed. The United States can’t continue to manage evictions in a way that results in severe poor health and protracted housing and economic insecurity. Providing the right to legal counsel to tenants nationwide would ensure accountability in a system that is heavily weighted in favor of landlords. Policies that support the formation of local and national tenant unions and associations would also help to equalize the balance of power and ensure policy makers can hear the voices of tenants.

Ultimately, every American deserves access to housing, thriving communities and areas of opportunity. Rental subsidies, new construction or rehabilitation, home ownership and investment in long-ignored communities would increase the supply of affordable housing. President Biden’s housing plan, which includes more than $318bn to create or preserve affordable housing, is a crucial start. Whether Congress will recognize the importance of housing stability and equity to the nation’s health and well-being remains to be seen.

As millions face the loss of their homes, eviction prevention and the right to safe and decent housing must be an urgent priority.

• Emily Benfer is a visiting professor of law and public health at Wake Forest University and chair of the American Bar Association Task Force on Eviction, Housing Stability, and Equity

• Peter Hepburn is an assistant professor of sociology at Rutgers University –Newark and a research fellow at the Eviction Lab, Princeton University