Dueling Weaknesses

In 2016, when The New York Times’s pollsters asked Americans whether they planned to vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, more than 10 percent said they would not support either one. They said that they would instead vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all.

Four years later, the situation was different. Joe Biden was a more popular nominee than Clinton had been, while some of Trump’s skeptics had come around to supporting him. Less than 5 percent of voters told pollsters that they didn’t plan to vote for either major party nominee.

This morning, The Times is releasing its first poll of the 2022 midterm campaign. And one of the main messages is that Americans again seem to be as dissatisfied with the leading candidates as they were in 2016. “This felt like a poll from 2016, not from 2020,” Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, told me.

The poll included a question about whether people would vote for Biden or Trump in 2024 if the two ended up being the nominees again. The question did not present any options other than Biden and Trump — yet 10 percent of respondents volunteered that they did not plan to support either one. The share was even higher among voters under 35 and lower among older voters.

Similarly unpopular

This level of dissatisfaction is a reflection of the huge, dueling weaknesses of the two parties.

The Democratic Party has two core problems. First, Biden’s job approval rating is only 33 percent (similar to Trump’s worst ratings during his presidency), partly because of frustration over inflation and the continuing disruptions to daily life stemming from the pandemic. Second, Democrats’ priorities appear out of step with those of most Americans.

Congressional Democrats have spent much of the past year bickering, with a small number of moderates blocking legislation that would reduce drug prices, address climate change and take other popular steps. Many Democrats — both politicians and voters, especially on the party’s left flank — also seem more focused on divisive cultural issues than on most Americans’ everyday concerns, like inflation.

“The left has a set of priorities that is just different from the rest of the country’s,” Nate said. “Liberals care more about abortion and guns than about the economy. Conservative concerns are much more in line with the rest of the country.”

On the other hand, Nate points out, “Republicans have serious problems of their own.”

Trump remains the party’s dominant figure — and he is roughly as unpopular as Biden. The two men’s personal favorability ratings are identical in the Times poll: 39 percent. Many voters, including independents and a noticeable minority of Republicans, are offended by the events of Jan. 6 and Trump’s role in them.

Republicans also face some vulnerabilities from the recent Supreme Court decisions. The court has issued aggressive rulings, including overturning Roe v. Wade, that take policy to the right of public opinion on some of the same issues where many Democrats are to the left of it.

If not Biden …

All of this leads to a remarkable combination of findings from the poll. Biden looks like the weakest incumbent president in decades; 61 percent of Democrats said they hoped somebody else would be the party’s 2024 nominee, with most of them citing either Biden’s age or performance. Yet, when all voters were asked to choose between Biden and Trump in a hypothetical matchup, Biden nonetheless held a small lead over Trump, 44 percent to 41 percent.

Other polls — by YouGov and Harris, for example — suggest Biden would fare better against Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris would. These comparisons are a reminder that Biden won the nomination in 2020 for a reason: He is one of the few nationally prominent Democrats who doesn’t seem too liberal to many swing voters. Biden, in short, is a wounded incumbent in a party without obviously stronger alternatives.

There is still a long time between now and the 2024 election, of course. Perhaps Biden’s standing will improve, or another Democrat — one who wins a tough race this year, for instance, like Stacey Abrams or Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia — will emerge as a possibility. Perhaps Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence or another Republican will defeat Trump for the nomination. Perhaps Biden or Trump (or both) will choose not to run.

The level of voter dissatisfaction also raises the possibility that a third-party candidate could attract enough support to influence the outcome, Nate adds.

For now, though, each party’s biggest strength appears to be the weakness of its opponent.

Related: My colleague Shane Goldmacher has more details and analysis on Biden’s approval rating. In the coming days, The Times will be releasing other results from the poll, including on the Republican Party, the midterm races and more.

More on politics

• Steve Bannon agreed to testify before the Jan. 6 panel, days before his trial for contempt of Congress is set to begin.

• Pressure from Trump allies and a fear of leaks: Here’s why the Jan. 6 committee rushed Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony.

• In a small town in New Hampshire, one man tried to impose a change so drastic it jolted a community out of political indifference.

THE LATEST NEWS

War in Ukraine

• Russia needs more soldiers, but isn’t resorting to a national draft. Instead, the Kremlin is offering cash and employing strong-arm tactics.

• Fellow players of Brittney Griner, who is detained in Russia on drug charges, honored her at the W.N.B.A. All-Star Game.

Other Big Stories

• A taunting gunman and 78 minutes of terror: A teacher who survived the Uvalde shooting recounted the desperate wait for a rescue.

• An American firm said U.S. spies quietly backed its plans to buy NSO, a blacklisted Israeli company that makes spyware.

• A wildfire in Yosemite National Park that has spread over 2,000 acres is threatening centuries-old giant sequoia trees.

• Get ready for astronomical records to be broken: NASA will unveil the first pictures from the new James Webb Space Telescope tomorrow.

• Novak Djokovic won his 21st major trophy, beating Nick Kyrgios in the Wimbledon men’s singles final.

Opinions

The history of Prohibition suggests Americans will rebel against abortion bans, Michael Kazin argues.

We need more male contraceptives, Stephanie Page and John Amory write.

Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss election season, Elon Musk and more.

MORNING READS

Economic anxiety: Thirty millennials discuss their real fears about money.

Where is Pete Panto? A union leader on the Brooklyn docks disappeared 81 years ago.

Cilantrophilia: A love affair with cilantro, told through illustrations.

Metropolitan Diary: A pizza lesson in Brooklyn and other tales from the city.

Quiz time: The average score on our latest news quiz was 8.9. Try to beat it.

A Times classic: Perfume, cologne, parfum … what’s the difference?

Advice from Wirecutter: Beautiful rugs to hide an ugly floor.

Lives Lived: Susie Steiner, the author of the Manon Bradshaw detective novels, was declared legally blind from a rare disease months before she sold her first book. She died at 51.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Wayne Rooney’s stunning return: England’s all-time leading soccer scorer will become the head coach of Major League Soccer’s D.C. United. He has significant work ahead.

How TV dictates the future of college football: The question is simple enough, which college football teams really drive the biggest TV audiences? That calculation tells us plenty about the future of a sport in disarray.

Russian soccer’s dramatic demise: Russia hosted a World Cup as recently as 2018. Now? Their domestic league has been gutted, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Who won the 2022 N.H.L. Draft? The grades are in for every team.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A decoded cipher

A scholar claims she has uncovered a hidden message from Catherine of Aragon, the first of Henry VIII’s eight wives, Jennifer Schuessler writes in The Times.

The scholar, Vanessa Braganza, became fascinated with the sketch of a pendant that featured a dense tangle of letters. Using a process akin to “early modern Wordle,” Braganza says, she deciphered the image, which spells out the names of Henry and Catherine.

What makes it particularly interesting, Braganza argues, is that the pendant was likely commissioned not by the king, but by Catherine herself, as a way of asserting her place in history as Henry was preparing to divorce her. “It really helps us understand Catherine as a really defiant figure,” she says.

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook

Gazpacho is perfect when it is too hot to eat but you need cold, salt and lunch.

What to Watch

“Thor: Love and Thunder,” the fourth “Thor” movie in 11 years, is sillier than its predecessors, Manohla Dargis writes.

What to Read

Three new memoirs that cover addiction, fatherhood and transgender identity.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was obedience. Here is today’s puzzle.

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Not for kids (five letters).

And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

P.S. Boris Yeltsin became Russia’s first freely elected president, The Times reported 31 years ago today.

Here’s today’s front page.

“The Daily” is about abortion laws. On “Popcast,” what’s next for Jack Harlow?

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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