After the Republican party made some inroads among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election, when Latino support for Trump went up by 3% compared with 2016, many commentators declared this group was decisively moving away from the Democratic party.

As November’s midterms approach, the GOP is aiming to capitalize on these gains. The recent victory of the Latina Republican Mayra Flores, who won a congressional seat representing southern Texas, is one they are hoping to replicate across the country.

Yet, with increased support largely limited to Florida and Texas, the political landscape is more complicated than it seems heading into this year’s midterms, and experts say the supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade may play a role in halting the GOP’s gains.

Christine Sierra, professor emerita of political science at the University of New Mexico and a specialist in Latino politics, says that any Republican gains in the 2020 presidential election did not mark a definitive trend. “While Republicans managed to make a few inroads in very specific counties in Florida and Texas, for example, Democrats maintain a majority of the Latino vote,” she recently told the Guardian. More than 60% of Latinos voted for Joe Biden.

Historically, Latinos have focused on issues such as economics, jobs, education and immigration to determine their vote – areas in which the GOP believes it has an upper hand among more moderate voters. However, the quickly changing landscape of sexual and reproductive rights in the United States might influence what matters most to Latino voters. Abortion bans are expected to have a greater effect on women of color, and Latina women account for about 25% of abortion patients in the US.

“Now, given the controversy and salience of abortion as an issue, it may go to the top one, two, or three issues [that matter to Latinos],” Sierra said.

A poll conducted in June by Change Research on behalf of the political organization Voto Latino found that 64% of Latinos in battleground states “are more motivated to vote in November” due to the fall of Roe, and 52% are “much more motivated”. The poll surveyed Latino voters in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Another poll by the same organization conducted in May found that across the battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia, 70% of Latino voters are in favor of protecting the right to choose. At least 30% of Latino Republicans in these states believe abortion should be legal “in all or most cases”.

Moreover, a recent Axios-Ipsos Latino poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo revealed at least 50% of Latino voters in the US say abortion should be legal while another 21% don’t have a view. One-fourth believe abortion should be illegal “at any time under any circumstances”.

Lina-Maria Murillo, assistant professor of gender, women’s and sexuality studies as well as history and Latinx studies at the University of Iowa, believes this extreme conservative stance among a minority of Latino voters can be traced back to the influence of the evangelical Christian church, where Latinos have been considered “one of the fastest growing segments’’, and of which Flores is a member. Bucking what Murillo says is a common stereotype that Latinos oppose abortion due to their Catholicism, the May Voto Latino poll shows Catholic Latinos support a woman’s right to choose at about the same rate as Latinos in general.

Still, Ameer Patel, vice-president of programs at Voto Latino, says the belief that Latinos are generally conservative is more anecdotal than anything else. “They’re actually really in favor of reproductive rights. And that number obviously increases when we look at younger Latinos,” he said. In the May Voto Latino poll, 75% of respondents between the ages of 18 through 39 said they support a woman’s right to choose.

Every year, about 1 million Latinos turn 18 and become eligible to vote in the US. Patel says their stance on abortion represents a unique mobilization opportunity for Democrats. “If you’re able to use this as a mobilization issue for young Latino voters in places like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, this is an extremely powerful tool,” he said.

In Arizona, where the end of Roe could revive a civil war-era law banning abortions, Latinos account for about 25% of voters and played a critical role in flipping the state in the 2020 presidential election. Moreover, 64% of respondents to the Voto Latino poll in Arizona said they would not support a candidate who stands for a complete abortion ban, stating “it would be a deal breaker.” This picture could affect contests like the attorney general race, where the Republican candidate Abraham Hamadeh has campaigned on the promise of upholding Arizona’s anti-abortion laws.

Patel says Republicans are taking note of this trend and choosing not to focus on reproductive rights as an issue to sway Latino voters, “because [they know] this is not a message they can win them on”. While Arizona’s Democratic candidate for governor, Katie Hobbs, has been outspoken about her stance on abortion, for instance, the Republican candidate, Kari Lake, has recently shied away from discussing the issue. In Texas, the Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke has repeatedly vowed to repeal the state’s abortion ban if elected governor. In Florida, the Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, is avoiding the subject.

Murillo believes the role of Latinas working for reproductive justice is often overlooked. “If we look at some of the major abortion funds in Texas, like West Fund and Frontera Fund, they have been established and are run by Latinx folks,” she said.

If O’Rourke can “galvanize the youth in Texas, especially around issues of abortion”, said Murillo, “then I think he has a chance and I think that Latinx people in Texas have a major role to play in that”.

According to a New York Times analysis, Democrats are vastly outspending Republicans on midterm ads talking about abortion. Still, Murillo believes Democrats are not fully seizing the opportunity to sway Latino voters. “Democrats are stuck in these old pandering ways; they’re not seeing the changes that are coming and the ways that Latinx people are not a monolith and that the youth component of this community is overwhelmingly progressive,” she said.

If Democrats don’t act, she says, while Latino voters “are not necessarily going to be turning to Republicans, they may just not vote at all”.