Jobs, healthcare and the cost of living drive voter turnout in Texas.

And, for these upcoming midterm elections, that has left political candidates to tread a fine line between the values of their national parties and those held by voters whose interests lie more and more outside rigid Democratic and Republican lines.

That was clear on a hot afternoon this September that saw a crowd of more than a dozen volunteers walk the streets of a neighborhood in Pharr, Texas, passing out flyers and talking up the Democratic candidate for the district 15 US House of Representatives seat, one of the most competitive races in the country. Many are waiting to see if the party can preserve or will surrender its thin advantages in both congressional chambers.

Michelle Vallejo is a young 31-year-old progressive running in the Rio Grande valley, a region which was thought to be a Democratic stronghold for many years, until the redrawing of districts and ever-diverging parties tested alliances.

Janie Garza, 67, avoided political engagement until she volunteered for Vallejo’s campaign that sweltering September afternoon. “I’ve never done this before and it’s really hot,” Garza said. “I’ve never been involved in any politics but Michelle really inspired me.”

Incidentally, Garza was canvassing in the neighborhood she grew up in as a child. After getting married and starting a family, she moved further away, but with her children now grown and having lives of their own, Garza felt compelled to try to usher change.

“It’s hard to hear of a woman who is looking out for our wellbeing, especially here in the valley,” Garza said about Vallejo. Referring to the culture of machismo – strong masculinity – that still persists in some Latino communities, Garza added: “It’s more of a man-type of group.”

The Rio Grande valley is a sprawl of four counties – Hidalgo, Cameron, Starr and Willacy – with a mostly Latino population of more than 1 million people and about 700,000 registered voters.

Poverty rates there are more than double the national average. The uninsured rate is about three times over the national average. And people earn between $14,000 (£12,360) to $18,000 (£15,890) annually, far below the $35,000 (£30,899) made each year by Americans in other parts of the country.

Keeping the loyalty of voters there is essential if Democrats want to finally win a statewide Texas election for the first time since 1994 – or for Republicans to push that specter further away than ever.

Politics are not top of mind for many people whose doors are knocked on. In Hidalgo county, where Vallejo canvassed, more than 43% of registered voters did not cast a ballot in the 2020 election that brought Joe Biden into power.

On that September day, a few residents opened their doors to the volunteers. But most didn’t answer, and the volunteers left their flyers at the door or at the gate.

One time, two young men who greeted the volunteers said that they don’t vote.

“I have two boys,” Garza said. “I’m kind of in the middle, because one of them is a Republican and the other one is a Democrat. So, which one am I going to call today and tell them that I block-walked?” she said, laughing.

That is because Garza – like many voters in south Texas – struggles with labels.

“Actually, I’ve always been one to look at the individual,” Garza said when asked about her political affiliation, “but I think now with Michelle, I think I’m going to say that I’m with her party. So, Democrat.”

Reevaluating how they vote

Many of the candidates in the valley run as Democrats, especially in local races. But the Republican party – whose anti-immigrant rhetoric around the US-Mexico border can turn off some Latino voters – has made some gains there in recent years, hammering home a message of jobs and prices.

“We did see some voters swing, you know, from the left to the right,” Vallejo said. “But I also feel like voters in general have started to reevaluate how they vote.”

Vallejo describes herself as a Christian but supports giving women nationwide a right to choose whether an abortion is right for them – a concept that the US supreme court eliminated with its June ruling to reverse the 1973 landmark case Roe v Wade.

Before she began her campaign, Vallejo had an earnest conversation with her religious grandmother who opposes abortion. She knew she would have to repeat much of that talk with the largely Catholic demographic in her district whose views on the issue align more with the GOP.

“Democrats, and even some of the Democrats and other parts of Texas like Houston, Dallas, Austin, they think because the majority of south Texas and valley residents are Hispanic, that that means they’re liberals or progressives, and they’re not,” Democratic strategist Colin Strother said.

Strother’s experience spans local, state and federal election that includes the most recent race for the famously moderate Democrat, US House representative Henry Cuellar, who ran in a primary each of the last two cycles and has won only narrowly over a progressive challenger.

Cuellar’s trademark is his straddling of defining party issues. Notably, he champions messaging that opposes abortion rights, breaking with more progressive Democrats who embrace the pro-choice label.

Meanwhile, he and another valley congressman, Vicente Gonzalez, voted against a bill aiming to ban semi-automatic weapons. They were among only five Democrats in the chamber to oppose the bill, which was proposed after a series of deadly mass shootings and ultimately failed in the Senate.

And they were the only US House representatives from Texas to break with their respective party on the vote.

Those positions are reflected at the state legislative level too. A recently retired state senator, Eddie Lucio Jr, voted last year in favor of Texas’ controversial “heartbeat” bill, which made abortions illegal if a fetal heartbeat could be detected and made no exceptions for victims of rape or incest.

Ultrasounds can detect a fetal heartbeat at six weeks, though many don’t even know they’re pregnant at that point.

“They are not a rubber stamp for any one political party,” Strother added. “There are aspects of the Republican platform that they support and agree with. There are aspects of the Democratic platform that they support and agree with.”

Strother said much of the misconception about south Texas voters and their reality as an increasingly purple – rather than blue or red – electorate comes from the repeated wins for Democrats in the area.

People tend to vote blue in the valley because “they [want] to be able to have a say in their local elections”, where candidates have the tendency to run as Democrats, Strother said. “They are not liberals. They’re not progressives. And that’s the big disconnect in our party. And, you know, the state party – and Texas – has ignored that region for decades.”

During the summer, the Democrats lost a key race in south Texas when Republican newcomer Mayra Flores, a respiratory care practitioner by trade, won a special election made necessary by US House representative Filemon Vela stepping down during an unexpired term representing the state’s 34th district.

‘No loyalties here’

Redistricting has set up a rare race in which Flores is facing fellow incumbent Gonzalez, who’s been essentially moved out of his 15th district seat. Meanwhile, in the redrawn 15th district, Vallejo is squaring off with Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz, whom the GOP hopes can capitalize on social values which frequently clash with the Democratic party’s key positions.

“There are no loyalties here,” Flores said of her district. “Our loyalties in south Texas are with God, it’s with our families, it’s with our communities, not with the political party.”

Flores brought novelty to the race as a Latina Republican and an immigrant born south of the border in Burgos, Mexico.

Regardless of the outcome of that race, elections like Flores’ in south Texas were likely going to be competitive anyway, Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said.

“I think they were going to be competitive either way because of the shift that you’re seeing in that region,” Mackowiak said. “But I do think that Mayra’s victory created belief, you know, to a greater extent than probably people felt before.”

Mackowiak, who has worked in his field for the last 13 years, said he saw the political tea leaves turning red during a 2018 campaign he helped run. Pete Flores, a Republican, ran in a special election for the district 19 seat of the state senate, an area that covers western south Texas.

“You know, that was the canary in the coalmine, that race,” Mackowiak said. “And I think it showed that an authentic, credible Hispanic Republican, if they do the work, can win in that part of our state.”

Pete Flores took 56% of votes for a seat previously held by a Democrat who had admitted to taking bribes.

Mayra Flores’ victorious Pentecostal Christian, anti-abortion, pro-gun, pro-law enforcement and pro-oil and gas platform was another lesson for Republicans. Many of those political stances are tough for Democrats to take while staying in line with the party’s broader federal agenda.

“I know they learned a lot from … the tactics that were used, the data that was collected, and that will apply to what they’re doing now and through the rest of the fall election,” Mackowiak said.

Strother, the Democratic strategist, acknowledged that Dan Sanchez’s defeat to Mayra Flores stung his party and predicted Republicans would use both her past success and her current re-election campaign to reinforce their goals for south Texas.

“They were going to make sure they won that special to keep that narrative going to try to make that narrative real, even if it’s not real yet,” Strother said. “And the Democrats took a nap. And you know, we lost a race that we should have won.”

Some believe the redistricting last year that changed the boundaries around south Texas – including the Rio Grande valley, something made possible because the GOP controls the state legislature and the governor’s mansion – created opportunities for Republicans to gain a foothold. “They started lowering the Republican number in their super safe districts, so they could reallocate those Republicans into districts that might not be safe,” Strother said.

As a result, some districts considered safe Democrat wins are now toss-ups. While strategists continue to watch the money poured into races, TV ads bought, and polls gauging a party’s winning chances, local candidates feel confident they know their prospective constituents.

Mayra Flores walked through Cameron county neighborhoods and heard from elderly men forced out of retirement and back into the labor force by the rising cost of living. She said she spoke with a mother who took out a loan to pay for her children’s back-to-school clothing – and with residents in Brownsville whose utility bills grew from $300 to $900 (£265 to £795).

“The district is 90% Hispanic – I am looking after my people,” Flores said.

Her campaign emphasizes her identifying with border culture.

A recent TV ad in support of Flores takes place at a family carne asada – or cookout – which is a staple of Latino households, particularly Mexican ones.

“I’m raza,” Flores said, using the Spanish word for “race” to signal that she’s one with the border’s unique culture.

Flores hopes Rio Grande valley voters could be swayed by someone who looks and sounds like them – but represents a political perspective that is different from past successful ones.

“We need Hispanics on both sides,” Flores said, referring to political parties. “We need equal representation. Nothing will pass [congress] if you don’t have a voice on both sides.”