As results in America’s crucial midterm elections continue to come in, an unexpectedly mixed picture has emerged.

Many observers across the political spectrum were expecting a surging Republican performance certain to take back the House and perhaps to capture the Senate. But instead Democrats have beaten expectations. Congress may still fall to the Republicans – with the House very likely changing hands – but it is now far from certain or by how big a margin.

Here are some key takeaways:

No red wave yet

A wave of Republican wins was expected by almost everyone in the last few weeks of the campaign. While the party performed strongly in Florida under the governor, Ron DeSantis, across the rest of the US many candidates faltered. Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano lost in Pennsylvania for the Senate and governor’s mansion respectively – but JD Vance did win in Ohio’s Senate race.

Democratic surprise

Democrats were so certain that they were in for a beating that some party figures, such as the California governor, Gavin Newsom, appeared already to be engaging in a blame game. Instead, they unexpectedly held on to vulnerable House seats from Virginia to Texas and scored comfortable wins in the Senate that had been doubted, such as in New Hampshire.

House Republicans have trouble ahead

The current minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, declared victory before all the results were in. “When you awake,” he said, “we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi” – the Democratic speaker – “will be in the minority”. That seemed likely but some projections had the majority at one seat. Anything nearly so narrow will place McCarthy at the mercy of a fractured caucus, extremists including Marjorie Taylor Greene enjoying real power as they push an agenda of vengeance against Democrats, Joe Biden and even Anthony Fauci, the scientist who became the face of the US Covid response. McCarthy’s chances of becoming speaker also hang in the balance.

Trump v DeSantis

Donald Trump’s widely expected imminent announcement of a 2024 White House run now looks slightly less certain – or at least slightly less certain to clear opponents from his path. His main rival in the party, DeSantis, is emerging as strengthened after over-performing strongly while high-profile Trump-endorsed candidates struggled. Only a few days ago, DeSantis looked in retreat in the face of a possible Trump run. Now he looks ascendant.

Democracy defenders faired well – but threat remains

Numerous high-profile Republican candidates who have backed Trump’s lie about electoral fraud lost their races. In Pennsylvania, Mastriano – one of the most extreme candidates – was roundly trounced. In Michigan, the conspiracy theorist Kristina Karamo lost her race to be secretary of state. But due to the fact that election denial has become so commonplace in the Republican party, it is likely to remain a strong force. The Washington Post estimated that at least 159 election-denying Republicans had won their races on Tuesday.