Joe Biden’s resignation has left the party with two clear options. The first and easiest is for the convention to be a rally for Kamala Harris as the nominee, as nearly all party conventions have been for the last 40 years. The second is to have a floor fight at the convention, with multiple candidates fighting to win over a majority of delegates.
The second option is attractive for a few reasons. It creates a process for candidates to win over support from major constituencies in the party, it allows them to make their cases to the broader public much like a regular primary, and it could draw in a large audience. It is the preferred solution of many of the party’s major donors and even, according to some reporting, some of its most astute political leaders.
A big open primary and contested convention, however, is still a bad idea. The party institutions and leadership should consolidate behind the vice-president and take the fight directly to Trump as soon as possible.
An open nomination fight would be distracting and potentially confusing to voters when there is almost no time to spare. The first ballots will be sent out in less than two months. The Republican national convention has already happened. The minute hand is rapidly ticking.
After a bruising traditional primary, parties usually have months to consolidate, mend fences and build enthusiasm. This will not be the case here. The party has already spent the last three weeks paralyzed and unable to campaign while the pressure mounted for Biden to drop out. Biden dropping out has resulted in a groundswell of enthusiasm, including a record-breaking small-dollar donation haul, and Democrats can’t waste any time capitalizing on that enthusiasm and turning it into resilient support for November.
Harris is also less known by the public than most nominees would be at this stage. The convention offers an opportunity for her to define her image and make her case to the public. A winning convention would involve dozens of speakers who know her and are able to speak convincingly to her record. A floor fight would prevent that.
A floor fight would also cause some structural problems. Though Harris would still be a heavy favorite, someone else winning would not be able to access the campaign’s finances, more than $100m on hand, or infrastructure, more than 1,000 staff members, and a team that has been embedded in swing states organizing and building connections for months. There is very little time to start from scratch.
There is also the problem of who is pushing the primary idea of the blitz and why. Progressives in the party have noted that the main drivers behind the blitz primary are megadonors and more conservative party members who see it as a chance to install a more business-friendly candidate and clean house from the Biden administration’s more progressive economic policies and regulators. A primary entirely aimed at winning over a base of moderate party officials, they reason, could turn back the clock to a Democratic party with a more straightforwardly neoliberal policy agenda, and jettison pro-worker actors within the administration like Biden’s NLRB appointees or FTC chair Lina Khan.
This would be disastrous for the party and for working class Americans. This sort of primary would not be more democratic, as proponents claim, but instead a return to the days of the smoke-filled room. Harris, at least, has a mandate from voters as the vice-president.
The proponents of this blitz primary idea also don’t seem to have a real plan for how it would work, and how it could result in a strong campaign heading into November. The ideas on the table range from confused to ludicrous, like a candidate forum to attract youth voters hosted by Mr Beast, or the revealing idea for a national security forum hosted by neoconservative grandees like Condoleezza Rice. This is not a serious plan.
This is not to say that the convention should be a pure coronation. With this change, there is still policy to figure out, and leaders should use their leverage. Progressives should demand action and real policy change from Harris on Palestine, and commitments on the promises Biden made in his waning days. Uncommitted delegates should agree on a single candidate to nominate, and push to gain speaking time for that candidate to represent the millions who are rightfully alienated from the administration over the issue of Gaza.
That is quite different, however, from an open convention where many candidates are sincerely attempting to win from the floor, and more in line with how recent nominating conventions have worked.
To win the election, Democratic leaders need to ditch the idea of a blitz primary and focus on consolidating for the general. The summer has already been too chaotic for them to add to it, and the Democratic party should reject calls from billionaire donors hoping to install their own candidate and eschew a chaotic and confusing fight. While everyone has the right to court delegates, the party should consolidate rather than forcing through some set of debates and forums between candidates with no mandate from voters.
A smart party would begin moving immediately to keep momentum and project confidence and unity, rather than continuing the turmoil and chaos. The stakes are high, and there’s no time to lose.
Ben Davis works in political data in Washington DC
Source: US Politics - theguardian.com
