For Britain, Israel is mostly a strategic liability – but it’s also a very close ally in stopping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Now that Israel is locked in a war with Iran and Britain is rushing to send a handful of RAF jets to the region, that relationship needs careful management.
The UK cannot afford to be seen as guilty by association in respect of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, or to suffer reputational damage by offering Israel unnecessary help – there is plenty for the RAF to do aside from that.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has said that the aircraft may be used to defend the UK’s allies – in other words, shoot down Iranian missiles heading towards Tel Aviv.
Helping Israel to stop the erratic and malevolent Iranian regime from making an atomic bomb is smart. Being seen to do so, and protecting Israel against the consequences of its endeavours, is not.
Iran has threatened to attack any US ally that defends Israel. The US has already helped to shoot down ballistic missiles fired by Tehran in retaliation for the ongoing, and widespread, Israeli attacks on Iran’s air defences, missile systems, military leadership and nuclear programme.
The US has a vast array of military assets very close to Iran, with air force and navy bases positioned across the Persian Gulf, in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. These are all vulnerable to attack.
Given the UK is a Nato member, joining in with the defence of these locations would be good politics, and could be considered part of its obligations to the alliance under the Article 5 mutual defence agreement. But Reeves was opaque about what the RAF’s handful of aircraft, likely operating out of Akrotiri in Cyprus, would be doing.
Asked whether the UK would come to Israel’s aid if it were asked to, the chancellor told Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We have, in the past, supported Israel when there have been missiles coming in. I’m not going to comment on what might happen in the future, but so far we haven’t been involved, and we’re sending in assets both to protect ourselves and also potentially to support our allies.”
Let’s be very clear. Israel is prosecuting a campaign against the population of Gaza with the intent, according to Israeli cabinet ministers, to empty the territory of 2.5 million people. It is simultaneously campaigning on the West Bank, illegally taking land from Palestinians there, setting up colonies, and imposing a system of grand apartheid on the non-Jewish population.
The UK has attracted widespread criticism for its reluctant and tardy criticism of these operations, and continues to operate a spy plane over Gaza while supplying small amounts of military equipment to Israel. This is a very bad look – a moral failure that could lead to blowback in the form of violence against the UK.
In April last year, former head of MI6 Sir Alex Younger told a Commons committee: “You cannot pretend that the international environment, our foreign policy or the way in which the West is perceived are not significant drivers of all of this.”
This is obvious. It should be obvious, too, to the British government that the very limited military capacity the UK has will make no difference at all to the defence of Israel.
Israeli forces were able to fly 200 planes in their first attacks on Iran this week. There’s no way the UK can get that many into the air under any circumstances.
According to Military Balance 2025, a report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Israel has 240 fighter-bombers. The UK has 113. Israel has more attack helicopters (Apaches mostly) – 38 vs 31 – and the RAF has only nine aerial tankers compared with Israel’s 14.
Israel also has the kind of air-defence capability that the UK could only dream of; this includes the Iron Dome system, so effective against Hamas attacks. It also has the David’s Sling system, which has a range of about 185 miles and, like the Iron Dome, can take down short- and medium-range missiles by smashing into them mid-flight.
Meanwhile, its Arrow 2 defence system can hit incoming missiles 30 miles away at very high altitude, while Arrow 3 has a range of 1,500 miles and can shoot down missiles in space.
The UK and US do have a very important listening station in Akrotiri, which is also a busy airfield for planes flying over Gaza and the whole of the Middle East. It is within range of Iranian missiles and would need defending by the UK’s extra jets and other assets.
Iran is likely to try to strangle oil traffic through the Gulf. The UK used to help patrol the region, but the Royal Navy has been steadily reducing its presence there.
Meanwhile, Britain runs the UK Maritime Trade Operations service, which advises shipping in the Gulf and Red Sea about security threats. It has stepped up its warnings to shipping in the Gulf and has reported the jamming of navigation systems and ramming attacks by small, unknown vessels before Israel’s sorties against Tehran. These operations are clearly ongoing rehearsals and training being carried out by Iranian forces.
So, there is plenty for Britain to do without risking the reputational damage that could occur as a result of helping Israel with military aid that it hardly needs right now. It’s geopolitical dirty linen.
