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    I.M.F. Says Inflation Fight Is Largely Over but Warns of New Threats

    The International Monetary Fund said protectionism and new trade wars could weigh on growth.The global economy has managed to avoid falling into a recession even though the world’s central banks have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years to try to tame rapid inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.But the I.M.F., in a new report, also cautioned that escalating violence in the Middle East and the prospect of a new round of trade wars stemming from political developments in the United States remain significant threats.New economic forecasts released by the fund on Tuesday showed that the global fight against soaring prices has largely been won: Global output is expected to hold steady at 3.2 percent this year and next. Fears of a widespread post-pandemic contraction have been averted, but the fund warned that many countries still face a challenging mix of high debt and sluggish growth.The report was released as finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. The gathering is taking place two weeks ahead of a presidential election in the United States that could result in a major shift toward protectionism and tariffs if former President Donald J. Trump is elected.Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of as much as 50 percent, most likely setting off retaliation and trade wars. Economists think that could fuel price increases and slow growth, possibly leading to a recession.“Fear of a Trump presidency will loudly reverberate behind the scenes,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Mr. Sobel said global policymakers would probably be wondering what another Trump presidency would “mean for the future of multilateralism, international cooperation, U.S.-China stresses and their worldwide ripples, and global trade and finance, among others.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What to Know About the BRICS Summit and the Countries Involved

    The group, which seeks to rebalance the global order away from the West, will meet on Tuesday. Here’s a primer.Leaders of BRICS, a group of emerging market nations that represent about half of the world’s population, will meet for a high-profile summit on Tuesday, their first since a major expansion last year.BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This year, the group has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The members will gather for the three-day conference in Kazan, a city in southwest Russia.The summit comes at a high-profile moment for BRICS, which sees itself as a counterweight to the West. World leaders will stand side-by-side with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, despite his pariah status in the West.But there are deep differences between member states, and the bloc has struggled to articulate and define its purpose.Here’s what you need to know:What is BRICS?What holds the group together?What does the Global East want?What about the ‘Global South’?What does China want?Barbara Berasi for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Yahya Sinwar Is Dead, but a Palestinian State Still Seems Distant

    A two-state solution remains the goal of the United States and the West, but many in the region say the devastation in Gaza and the lack of effective Palestinian leadership make it a remote prospect.The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has raised hopes in the Biden administration that it could help pave the way for the eventual creation of a Palestinian state.But in many ways the goal of an independent Palestinian state seems further away than ever. In Gaza, there has been death and destruction on a devastating scale. There is a lack of a clear and solid Palestinian leadership. And Israel is grappling with its own trauma over the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7.President Biden is hoping Mr. Sinwar’s death can bring about a temporary cease-fire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages, while producing a path toward negotiations on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel — the so-called two-state solution. But it is unclear who can speak for Hamas now in Gaza, or even if the group really knows where all the hostages are or how many remain alive.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has vowed to continue the war against Hamas as he prosecutes another conflict against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and also to retaliate against Iran. Since Oct. 7, he has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of a two-state solution, and the stability of his coalition government is dependent on far-right ministers who oppose a Palestinian state of any kind.Yahya Sinwar, center, in Gaza City last year. Mr. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to spark moves toward Palestinian statehood, analysts say.Fatima Shbair/Associated PressAll that makes the prospect of Israel agreeing to a serious negotiation on a Palestinian state extremely unlikely, said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Gazan scholar who is a visiting professor at Northwestern University.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Zelensky Outlines Ukraine’s ‘Victory Plan’ to EU Leaders

    President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine made an urgent plea in Brussels, though it’s unclear to what extent the officials gathered there will go along with it.President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine told leaders of the European Union’s 27 member states in Brussels on Thursday that his country desperately needed their support for his plan to end the war, which he maintains could happen no later than next year, but which it is unclear how much Ukraine’s allies will embrace.Mr. Zelensky made the impassioned plea on his latest trip abroad as he tries to attract sustained international support for Ukraine, two and a half years into the war, and as Ukrainian forces steadily lose ground to Russian troops. He had hoped to present the plan to European leaders in Germany earlier in the month, but that gathering was postponed when President Biden canceled his participation to deal with the effects of Hurricane Milton.“You all know Russia’s psychology,” Mr. Zelensky told E.U. leaders on Thursday. “Russia will resort to diplomacy only when it sees that it cannot achieve anything by force.”Mr. Zelensky is scheduled to speak at a news conference with Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, later on Thursday and will make the case for Ukraine’s accession into the military alliance — a key point in his proposals.The Ukrainian leader acknowledged in a news conference on Thursday that the United States was wary that his country’s accession to NATO had the potential to drag the United States directly into the war. But he said, “Invitation to NATO is not at all crossing any red lines, and crossing red lines with whom — with a murderer?”Mr. Zelensky’s strategy, which he refers to as his “victory plan,” also calls for the West to lift restrictions on Kyiv’s use of Western-delivered missiles to strike ammunition depots and other military facilities inside Russia, and to share more satellite data that Ukraine can use to identify and strike Russian targets.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Justin Trudeau’s Accusations Spotlight Reach of India’s Intelligence Agencies

    The Canadian prime minster’s accusation of Indian government involvement in the killing of a Sikh nationalist signifies a sharp escalation in diplomatic tensions between India and Canada.The accusation by Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, that the Indian government orchestrated a campaign to threaten and kill Sikhs on Canadian soil has cast a spotlight on the potential reach of India’s shadowy intelligence network, which has been known to operate mainly in South Asia.Mr. Trudeau’s allegations have surprised many in diplomatic circles, who say that countries are typically reluctant to air allegations of espionage and assassinations against foreign intelligence services.India’s neighbors — especially its archrival, Pakistan, with which it has fought multiple wars — are well acquainted with Indian covert operations, which are widely understood to have involved targeted airstrikes and assassinations on foreign soil.But because of the public way Canada has laid out its case, the wider world is now getting a glimpse of how diplomats, spies, bureaucrats and police officers who work in Indian intelligence likely operate, and how senior government officials may direct their activities.Mr. Trudeau’s strongly worded statements on Monday escalated a diplomatic row between the two countries that had been brewing for more than a year, over the killing of a Canadian Sikh citizen in Canada.The Canadian authorities said on Monday that they believe six diplomats were part of a broad criminal network, spread across the country, involved in intimidation, harassment and extortion aimed at Canadian Sikhs, as well as homicides.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Russia Is Winning Back Territory Taken by Ukraine in Its Summer Offensive

    Moscow’s forces have been recapturing some villages and land taken in a Ukrainian incursion into Russia. The advances could undermine Kyiv’s hopes of pushing Russia to the negotiating table.Russia has recaptured a few villages in its western borderlands that Ukraine invaded over the summer, threatening Kyiv’s hold on territory it views as crucial leverage for pushing Moscow toward negotiations to end the war.In recent days, Russian troops have intensified efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the bulge of territory they seized in Russia’s western Kursk region, launching several assaults spearheaded by armored vehicles. Battlefield maps compiled by independent groups using satellite images and combat footage indicate that Russian forces have driven a wedge into the western edge of the Ukrainian bulge, recapturing at least three villages.“In general, the situation in Kursk is not so good,” DeepState, a group with close ties to the Ukrainian Army that analyzes combat footage, said on Sunday. Ukrainian forces “are taking stabilization measures, but it is extremely difficult to reclaim what has been lost.”Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst for the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said that some elements of Russian units had “managed to advance relatively far into the Ukrainian rear, which caused issues and losses for Ukraine.”To be sure, Ukraine still holds roughly 300 square miles of Russian territory, according to the Black Bird Group, down from about 400 square miles in the first weeks of its cross-border assault in the Kursk region, which was launched in early August. The offensive had two primary objectives: to force the Kremlin to divert troops from other parts of the front to respond to the attack, thereby easing pressure on Ukrainian forces; and to capture territory that Moscow will seek to reclaim, potentially forcing it to come to the negotiating table.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    China Holds War Games in a Warning to Taiwan’s Leader

    The drills were seen as a response to a speech by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan, who said last week that China had “no right to represent” the island.China began holding military drills in areas surrounding Taiwan on Monday, days after Beijing accused the self-governing island’s president of promoting independence in a National Day address. China said its army, navy, air force, rocket force and other forces were taking part in the drills to test their ability to fight alongside each other, and to send a warning to Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory. It did not say when the exercises would conclude.“This is a powerful deterrent against the separatist activities of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a legitimate and necessary action to defend national sovereignty and maintain national unity,” said Senior Col. Li Xi, a spokesman for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command, which oversees an area including Taiwan, according to state media. In a social media post, the Eastern Theater Command said it was “ready to fight at all times.”Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, in a statement, expressed “strong condemnation for such irrational and provocative behavior” and said it had dispatched troops to respond to the Chinese drills. Experts in Taiwan said the scale of the exercises was not immediately clear, given that no prior notice had been given and few details had been made public. A map posted by Chinese state media depicted the drills as being conducted in six large areas encircling Taiwan. China called the exercise “Joint Sword-2024B,” suggesting that it was a continuation of a two-day exercise in May, called “Joint Sword-2024A,” that was held after President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan was sworn in. Beijing dislikes Mr. Lai, accusing him and his party of seeking independence.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Secret Documents Show Hamas Tried to Persuade Iran to Join Its Oct. 7 Attack

    The Times reviewed the minutes of 10 meetings among Hamas’s top leaders. The records show the militant group avoided several escalations since 2021 to falsely imply it had been deterred — while seeking Iranian support for a major attack.For more than two years, Yahya Sinwar huddled with his top Hamas commanders and plotted what they hoped would be the most devastating and destabilizing attack on Israel in the militant group’s four-decade history.Minutes of Hamas’s secret meetings, seized by the Israeli military and obtained by The New York Times, provide a detailed record of the planning for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, as well as Mr. Sinwar’s determination to persuade Hamas’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, to join the assault or at least commit to a broader fight with Israel if Hamas staged a surprise cross-border raid.The documents, which represent a breakthrough in understanding Hamas, also show extensive efforts to deceive Israel about its intentions as the group laid the groundwork for a bold assault and a regional conflagration that Mr. Sinwar hoped would cause Israel to “collapse.”The documents consist of minutes from 10 secret planning meetings of a small group of Hamas political and military leaders in the run-up to the attack, on Oct. 7, 2023. The minutes include 30 pages of previously undisclosed details about the way Hamas’s leadership works and the preparations that went into its attack.The documents, which were verified by The Times, lay out the main strategies and assessments of the leadership group:Hamas initially planned to carry out the attack, which it code-named “the big project,” in the fall of 2022. But the group delayed executing the plan as it tried to persuade Iran and Hezbollah to participate.As they prepared arguments aimed at Hezbollah, the Hamas leaders said that Israel’s “internal situation” — an apparent reference to turmoil over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s contentious plans to overhaul the judiciary — was among the reasons they were “compelled to move toward a strategic battle.”In July 2023, Hamas dispatched a top official to Lebanon, where he met with a senior Iranian commander and requested help with striking sensitive sites at the start of the assault.The senior Iranian commander told Hamas that Iran and Hezbollah were supportive in principle, but needed more time to prepare; the minutes do not say how detailed a plan was presented by Hamas to its allies.The documents also say that Hamas planned to discuss the attack in more detail at a subsequent meeting with Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader at the time, but do not clarify whether the discussion happened.Hamas felt assured of its allies’ general support, but concluded it might need to go ahead without their full involvement — in part to stop Israel from deploying an advanced new air-defense system before the assault took place.The decision to attack was also influenced by Hamas’s desire to disrupt efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the entrenchment of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Israeli efforts to exert greater control over the Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, sacred in both Islam and Judaism and known to Jews as the Temple Mount.Hamas deliberately avoided major confrontations with Israel for two years from 2021, in order to maximize the surprise of the Oct. 7 attack. As the leaders saw it, they “must keep the enemy convinced that Hamas in Gaza wants calm.”Hamas leaders in Gaza said they briefed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s Qatar-based political leader, on “the big project.” It was not previously known whether Mr. Haniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel in July, had been briefed on the attack before it happened.Prelude to WarThe documents provide greater context to one of the most pivotal moments in modern Middle Eastern history, showing it was both the culmination of a yearslong plan, as well as a move partly shaped by specific events after Mr. Netanyahu returned to power in Israel in late 2022.Yahya Sinwar in April 2023 in Gaza City. Documents show that he and other Hamas leaders wanted time to lull Israeli leaders into a false sense of security before attacking Israel. Samar Abu Elouf for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More