The Southern Transitional Council (STC) and its affiliated security formations represent the most effective indigenous partner in southern Yemen in the fight against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State – Yemen Province (ISY).

Despite limited resources and inconsistent international backing, STC-aligned forces remain on the front lines, facing relentless attacks while leading counterterrorism operations in one of the world’s most complex security environments.

Persistent threats and the front-line role of the STC

On October 21, 2025, a coordinated attack involving car bombs and suicide bombers struck a government compound and STC-affiliated units in Abyan Governorate, underlining the enduring threat posed by jihadist groups in southern Yemen. According to The National, fighters linked to the STC were reportedly among the casualties.

In June 2024, a vehicle carrying a southern security commander was ambushed by AQAP in Al-Hamima, Abyan, killing one STC-aligned soldier and wounding two others, as reported by Anadolu Ajansı. AQAP remains active throughout the south and frequently targets STC forces as well as other security actors. Recent assaults in Abyan have been attributed by local sources to AQAP militants, further highlighting the vulnerability of southern Yemen’s security landscape.

The South’s fragmented political environment — marked by a fractured central government — has created a security vacuum that extremist movements readily exploit. Analysts from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point have noted that the STC is regarded as a “shared enemy” by both AQAP and the Iran-aligned Houthi Movement, primarily because of the STC’s aggressive counterterror operations in the region.

Operational advantage and indigenous legitimacy

The STC’s affiliated paramilitary arm, the Security Belt Forces (SBF), was founded around 2016 and has received training and varying degrees of support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The SBF operates under the STC’s command structure across southern Yemen, as Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) details.

In April 2022, the STC formally joined Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) — the internationally recognized government — granting it a dual identity as both a local military actor and a partial political stakeholder.

Through this position, the STC controls substantial territory across the south, maintaining local legitimacy and trusted access in regions where extremist networks thrive amid weak governance structures.

Given its operational foothold, the STC is arguably the only local force capable of conducting sustained counterterror campaigns in southern Yemen — particularly as the central state remains institutionally fragile.

Strategic maritime and regional implications

Southern Yemen’s geography places it at the epicenter of global maritime security. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden are critical chokepoints for international trade and energy transportation. Any deterioration of security in this region risks severe global repercussions.

Through its governance and policing functions, the STC has the potential to stabilize these maritime corridors. Consequently, Western engagement with the STC should not be viewed solely through the prism of Yemen’s internal politics, but as a matter of international maritime security and energy supply protection.

Why Western governments should strategically engage

Western policymakers must move beyond outdated perceptions of the STC as merely a separatist movement. In practice, the STC functions as a credible counterterrorism partner with significant local legitimacy in Yemen’s south.

A calibrated strategy for engagement could include:

— Intelligence sharing with STC-aligned forces operating in AQAP-dense areas.

— Specialized training, logistical support and equipment provision to enhance operational capacity.

— Direct liaison mechanisms that bypass dysfunctional national-level bottlenecks.

— Investment in local governance and recruitment-prevention initiatives to ensure that sustainable civilian stability efforts complement the counterterror campaign.

However, engagement must be accompanied by accountability measures. Support should align with international norms on human rights and the use of force. Amnesty International has raised concerns regarding restrictions on civil society organizations and bureaucratic barriers in STC-administered areas, highlighting the need for transparency and oversight.

Western engagement with the STC should also be integrated into broader diplomatic efforts, including the UN-led peace process. Many analysts now argue that the only viable long-term solution to Yemen’s conflict lies in recognizing southern self-determination alongside a stable northern entity — effectively a two-state outcome. STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi has publicly called for such a framework, insisting that Yemen’s protracted conflict cannot be resolved by military means alone.

Consequences of inaction

If Western governments fail to engage meaningfully with the STC, the implications could be dire:

— AQAP and ISY may exploit instability in the south to regroup and launch new regional or international attacks.

— Houthi-extremist coordination could deepen, forming a transnational threat nexus stretching across the Gulf, Horn of Africa and Red Sea maritime corridor. A recent attack blamed on both Houthis and AQAP demonstrates the growing risk of this convergence.

— Maritime chokepoints could remain vulnerable to interdiction, threatening global shipping and energy security.

— STC forces, already overstretched and underfunded, could face burnout or morale loss, potentially reversing years of counterterrorism gains.

Strategic choice

Western governments now face a decisive choice: either engage and empower the STC as a credible security partner — integrating counterterrorism, maritime security and governance — or risk allowing extremist groups to re-entrench themselves in southern Yemen. The latter scenario would have consequences that extend far beyond Yemen, threatening regional stability and global trade flows.

The Southern Transitional Council stands as the most capable indigenous force countering extremism in southern Yemen. Extremist groups like AQAP and ISY view the STC as a direct threat to their operations and continuously target its personnel.

For Western powers, the convergence of counterterrorism priorities, maritime stability and regional security underscores the necessity of a pragmatic and principled engagement strategy with the STC. Such engagement — anchored in accountability and diplomacy — could help stabilize one of the world’s most strategically vital yet volatile regions.

[Kaitlyn Diana edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

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