Mapped: The UK areas to be hardest hit by scrapping pensions triple lock

Andy Burnham’s chances of winning the next general election could be hit by his plan to scrap the state pension triple lock, with almost every constituency worst-hit by the radical pledge currently held by Labour.

Analysis of the 20 constituencies with the highest proportion of pensioners claiming pension credit, given to those on a low income, showed 19 have Labour MPs, including home secretary Shabana Mahmood, who is MP for Birmingham Ladywood.

Meanwhile, a survey by BMG Research, commissioned by The i Paper, found that 56 per cent of Labour voters want the triple lock to remain.

On Tuesday, Andy Burnham told the Labour Party conference that the triple lock would be adjusted to help pay for a new, free social care system.

It means the rate of increase to the state pension would no longer be attached to the rise in average earnings. Instead, it would be pegged to inflation or a 2.5 per cent increase – whichever is highest.

The change, saving £15bn per year by 2040, would not come in until after 2030 and will likely be key in the battleground for the next election.

Modelling shows it could leave the state pension £5,400-a-year lower in 20 years, at £25,029 compared to the £31,571 it would have risen to under the current policy.

On Wednesday, despite union opposition, Labour ministers came out in support of the “brave” pledge. However, Mr Burnham risks discontent in Labour strongholds where there are the highest rates of pensioners on pension credit, which is given to pensioners with an income of less than £238.

Bethnal Green and Stepney in London, where Rushanara Al is Labour MP, has the highest proportion of claimants, with almost half of pensioners (49 per cent) receiving pension credit. That compares to the 11 per cent British average, according to figures released for November last year by the House of Commons.

Second joint highest were Birmingham Ladywood, where Ms Mahmood is MP, and Manchester Rusholme, where Afzal Khan has been Labour MP since 2017, with 43 per cent.

Mr Khan told The Independent: “Any family that has been struck by the current state of social care knows first-hand the desperate need we have to fix it. Vulnerable adults are stripped of their life earnings and possessions to pay for basic care, all whilst the heroes providing essential care are suffering on poverty pay. It’s just not right.

“The adjustments to the triple lock will unlock £15 billion in the first decade of its reform and will fund the National Care Service that we will build. This isn’t about taking support away, it’s about providing more support, more care, and more dignity in later life for everyone in our country.”

Stephen Timms, Labour MP for East Ham, where the proportion is 35 per cent, said: “I support the plan. I don’t think anyone envisaged that the triple lock, in its original form, would carry on for ever. Its very important that the level of the State Pension keeps pace with earnings, as the adjusted model will ensure.”

David Lammy’s Tottenham constituency was sixth highest with 37 per cent. After Mr Burnham’s speech, the former foreign secretary did not mention the triple lock adjustment in a glowing review of the prime minister post on X.

At the other end of the spectrum, Mid Buckinghamshire, where Greg Smith is Tory MP, and Wokingham, where Clive Jones is Lib Dem MP, have the joint lowest rate with just 4 per cent of pensioners claiming pension credit.

Among those critical of the plan is Sharon Graham, general secretary of the Unite union, who warned the prime minister he was penalising the “poorest in society”. She told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “Going to a group of people who are getting around £12,500 a year, in order to pay for it, to take their security from them, is wrong. I think it’s morally wrong.”

Dr Lawrence McKay, lecturer in comparative politics at the University of Reading, said the move “sparks immediate comparison” with Sir Keir Starmer’s move to limit winter fuel allowance, which was one of the former prime minister’s most unpopular policies and he was forced to U-turn on.

He said: “It marks a change from the ‘people-pleasing’ tendencies of Burnham’s early days as PM, and has little to do with the hope-based theming of Labour’s conference.”

However, Dr McKay suggested that, despite resistance, Mr Burnham could be successful in rolling out the move.

He said: “While other parties, some pressure groups and some trade unions may attempt to overturn Burnham’s plans, doing so may prove surprisingly difficult to achieve. Burnham remains personally popular and has a large majority, and privately even some on the right accept the triple lock can’t last forever.”

So far, Labour ministers and MPs have stuck behind their leader.

On Sky News on Wednesday morning, Pat McFadden, secretary for work and pensions, told Sky News that pensioners should “know that their pension will continue to rise every year”. Housing minister Angela Rayner has called the move “brave”.

Mr Lammy, who said last year that Labour was “supporting pensioners through the triple lock” in its autumn Budget, did not mention “pensioners” or “triple lock” in a 610-word post on X praising Mr Burnham’s speech.

Mr Burnham defended himself against a suggestion he was picking on pensioners. He told ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Wednesday: “I think you’ve got it completely wrong, really, if you don’t mind me saying, to put it like that, because I have put out today a vision for a national care service.

“There are pensioners out there who watch your programme who are paying for care costs from their basic state pension. Now, is that right or fair? We have to fix this system. But what I’m saying about the triple lock enables a better support, better care for people in their homes. No care charges.”