Operatives from both parties see the race as deadlocked, and both insist they have a clearer path.
Last month, I laid out four swing states that — at that time — seemed most likely to help you understand the election: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They are all still very important. But, in a twist that was probably inevitable in a close and volatile election, another state may be emerging as do-or-die territory for Vice President Kamala Harris.
This is why I headed to Michigan this week.
Michigan is, after Pennsylvania, the state where the campaigns for both Harris and former President Donald Trump, and their allies, have spent the most money on television advertising. It is the only state where both candidates, both of their running mates and both Obamas were all scheduled to appear this week, with both Harris and Trump themselves holding two public events each.
And, if Trump’s slight polling leads in Georgia and North Carolina bear out on Election Day, the loss of Michigan’s 15 electoral votes could cost Harris the presidency even if she holds onto Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
On paper, you might think Michigan would be easy for Democrats. The state helped Democrats win back the House in 2018, gave President Biden his biggest margin of victory among the swing states in 2020, and handed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, an 11 percentage-point victory after the Dobbs decision in 2022.
Both Democratic and Republican operatives I spoke with here believe the race to be deadlocked, and both sides insisted they have a clearer path to victory. Allies of Trump believe that Harris’s troubles with Arab American voters, who are frustrated with the Biden administration’s policy toward Israel, and her apparent erosion among some Black men, will carry him over the finish line. Democrats are trying to hold the line in Detroit and run up the score in the suburbs, leaning hard on women as they pull out their post-2016 playbook for its biggest test yet.
“We are not in panic mode,” Representative Hillary Scholten, a Democrat whose district in Western Michigan includes the kind of well-educated suburbs, such as East Grand Rapids, that Harris is banking on. “Michigan could come down to something like two votes per precinct. We want to make sure we’re reaching all of those voters.”
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Source: Elections - nytimes.com
