Markus Andrews

Boris Johnson has ruled out calling an early general election, as allies admitted that voters would not welcome a snap vote aimed at saving his premiership.The move came as an exclusive poll for The Independent suggested that the Conservative Party would be defeated if a ballot was called now, with Labour falling just short of an overall majority but the prime minister potentially losing his own seat. It indicated that Mr Johnson’s personal standing among voters has plummeted in the wake of the Sue Gray report into Partygate and the abortive coup attempt by his own MPs.But pressure on Mr Johnson was eased by the announcement that a Commons inquiry into claims he lied to parliament about Downing Street parties will not take evidence from witnesses until the autumn, granting him a few months’ grace to recover his position.As the ranks of Tory MPs calling for Mr Johnson’s removal have grown in recent weeks, the prime minister’s advisers have used the threat of an early poll – and the possible loss of vulnerable seats – to bring wavering MPs into line.But a source close to Mr Johnson dismissed the chances of him calling an early election this year, conceding that cutting and running at a time when he holds a commanding majority in the Commons would not be credible to voters.“The PM won an 80-seat majority, people want us to use it to get s*** done, rather than hold another vote,” the source said.Today’s poll by Savanta suggests an early election could be disastrous for Mr Johnson, with Labour extending their lead by a point since last month to seven, on 41 per cent against 34 per cent for Tories and 10 per cent for Liberal Democrats.According to the electoral calculus calculator, this would translate into a hung parliament with Keir Starmer’s party around a dozen short of an overall majority in the Commons and able to form a fragile administration with Lib Dem support. Tories could lose more than 120 MPs and Mr Johnson’s Uxbridge seat would be one of those under threat.The survey showed a collapse in Mr Johnson’s personal ratings over the course of a month in which he has been panned in the Partygate report, narrowly escaped being ejected by his own MPs and seen Tories humiliated in by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton.Satisfaction in the PM’s performance plunged to -35, with just 30 per cent saying he was doing a good job and 65 per cent a bad one.This compared to -26 in a similar poll conducted on 21-22 May, just days before the release of Ms Gray’s explosive report on lockdown breaches in Downing Street.The survey also suggested that the fortunes of chancellor Rishi Sunak have begun to recover since The Independent’s revelation of his wife’s non-dom status knocked him off his position as frontrunner to succeed Mr Johnson.After his announcement of a £15bn cost-of-living package to help households deal with soaring prices, the chancellor’s satisfaction rating has shot up from -20 to -2, and he has been restored as Mr Johnson’s closest challenger.Some 18 per cent named the PM as best candidate for Tory leader (down four points since last month), against 13 per cent for Mr Sunak (up 5), 8 per cent for Jeremy Hunt (unchanged) and 6 per cent each for Liz Truss and Sajid Javid (unchanged).David Canzini, senior strategist at No 10, is said to have warned a group of Tory MPs facing close re-election battles last month that an early election could be called.Speculation about the possibility of an election as early as autumn 2022 has been rife at Westminster over recent weeks.Rebel Tory MPs shared fears that Mr Johnson could respond to an attempted coup by going to the polls this autumn to get a new mandate, with one saying he’s “mad enough to bring the whole house down”.The government’s move to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act introduced by David Cameron means Mr Johnson is free to call an election at a time of his choice and does not have to wait until the latest date in 2024.The prime minister, currently at the Nato summit in Madrid, would not be drawn on an early election when grilled by reporters.Asked if he was considering the plan, the PM said the media was free to offer “predictions about politics”, but insisted that he would not “cross over and start talking about politics”.Questioned again if he was leaning towards an early election, he said: “Oh, for heaven’s sake! I am not offering commentary, what I’m trying to get over to you is that I’m here to comment on policy, on the agenda of government.”It came as the group of cross-party MPs on the privileges committee unanimously backed Labour grandee Harriet Harman to chair the investigation that could determine Mr Johnson’s fate as PM.In a move seemingly intended to encourage Downing Street whistleblowers to come forward, the MPs said they were willing to take anonymous evidence. But there was no decision on whether Mr Johnson and other witnesses will be able to provide testimony behind closed doors or will be subjected to a public grilling in front of TV cameras.Rebel Tory MPs believe the investigation could provide a “flashpoint” for a fresh leadership challenge if the inquiry produces a damning verdict on Mr Johnson.In the worst-case scenario for the PM, the committee could find him in contempt of parliament, triggering a possible suspension from the House or even a recall ballot in Uxbridge.Current rules of the the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers mean the prime minister is safe from another confidence vote for 12 months, after narrowly winning a ballot of Tory MPs earlier this month.But Tory MP Andrew Bridgen has said he will run for election to the 1922 Committee on the basis that the rules could be changed to allow a fresh confidence vote.Fellow backbench rebel Steve Baker also said he would run for a place on the committee, and suggested he also wanted the rule on a 12-month grace period to change.“We should not change the rules and vote again lightly. However, there are foreseeable circumstances in which the 1922 may need to act,” Mr Baker said earlier this week.Savanta questioned 2,217 adults in Britain on 25-26 June. More

Dominic Raab spent more than £1m on private jets in just nine months as foreign secretary instead of using regular flights, Labour is protesting.The deputy prime minister is also under fire for taking up to nine officials with him on government trips – wasting money during a cost of living crisis, the party says.“There are serious questions for the government about how these extortionate costs were run up and what we’re paying for,” Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader said.“The public will want to know if they’re footing the bill for Tory ministers’ expensive in flight hospitality while working families struggle to put food on their own tables.”Mr Raab, now the justice secretary, was foreign secretary until September last year, when he was demoted over the chaotic response to the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban.According to official data examined by Labour, he used chartered flights on travel to:* South Korea and Vietnam, in October 2020, with eight officials – costing £213,009* Cyprus, February 2021, six officials – £68,549* Gibraltar, March 2021, nine officials – £34,369* Indonesia and Brunei, April 2021, seven officials – £226, 053* Israel, May 2021, eight officials – £110,786* Saudi Arabia and Iraq, June 2021, seven officials – £150,349* Cambodia, June 2021, six officials – £236,487Ms Rayner added: “While families struggle to make ends meet, ministers continue to waste taxpayers’ money.”But a government spokesperson insisted: “During the pandemic, commercial flight options were limited. All flights were fully declared and in accordance with the rules.”The criticism comes after Mr Raab and Ms Rayner clashed in the Commons, when the deputy prime minister criticised his opposite number for attending the Glyndebourne opera festival.He claimed pictures of her in the Sussex countryside during the rail strikes last week. were proof that “champagne socialism is back in the Labour party” – while winking at her.“Where was she when the comrades were on the picket line last Thursday?” Mr Raab asked, adding: “She was at the Glyndebourne music festival sipping champagne.”Ms Rayner hit back, saying Tory ministers spent an evening last week “at the banqueting table getting hundreds of thousands squeezed out of their donors”.A No 10 spokesman was forced to deny Mr Raab’s criticism was an attack on a working-class woman enjoying champagne and opera.“The prime minister is clear that everybody should be able to enjoy arts and culture and other such things across the UK,” he said. More

Britain will commit more troops to Estonia to defend Nato’s eastern flank against the Russian threat as part of massive expansion in the defence alliance, Ben Wallace has said.The defence secretary suggested at least 1,000 extra UK troops would join an enlarged force in the Baltic state, though he stressed that final details would have to be worked out in the months ahead.Nato leaders at a summit in Madrid agreed on Wednesday to increase its “high readiness” response force from 40,000 to 300,000 troops – but officials said the contribution of each country would not be finalised until early next year.The alliance also formally agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to become members after Turkey dropped its objections. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said he hoped the ratification process could now happen “as quickly as possible”.Boris Johnson said the surge in troops and accession of two new members showed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had been “completely wrong” if was hoping he would reduce Nato influence on his western front. “He’s getting more Nato.”Speaking to reporters in Madrid, the defence secretary explained that more British troops would join the existing UK-led battlegroup in Estonia of around 1,700 UK personnel – turning the British-led force into the size of a “brigade”.Mr Wallace said a typical brigade was around 3,000 troops, suggesting that at least 1,000 extra British troops could be assigned. But he added that some personnel committed to the force would be on stand-by at home in the UK.The senior cabinet minister also continued his row with Boris Johnson over military budgets on Wednesday by suggesting the true proportion of defence spending was less than 2.3 per cent of GDP.No 10 said defence spending was projected to rise to 2.3 per cent of output this year, partly due to billions of pounds of support committed to Ukraine.But the defence secretary told reporters: “[Ukraine support] isn’t core defence spending. I mean, it is not my core budget. It doesn’t buy me any more planes, tanks or ships.”It comes as new research showed that the military faces real-terms cuts of £1.7bn over the next three years. Analysis from the Commons Library commissioned by the Lib Dems forecast 5.6 per cent real-terms cut to day-to-day Ministery of Defence spending by 2024-25. More

Britain is to play a crucial role in the western strategy of preventing Russia “profiteering from its war of aggression in Ukraine” through the global sale of oil.Allies plan to cap Russian oil prices – a move they say will restrict revenue for the Kremlin while still permitting supplies to reach countries that have not imposed import bans, thus avoiding crippling energy shortages.Despite western financial penalties, Vladimir Putin’s war chest is growing. Russia is said to have made $100bn (£82bn) through the sale of oil and gas in the first 100 days of the war. It is currently earning an estimated $800m a day.Insurance companies will have a major part to play in any capping process. It would be extremely difficult for markets to receive Russian oil by sea without this service, and insurers in London, the international centre for marine insurance, must cooperate if the policy is to succeed.The International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs in London covers around 95 per cent of the global oil shipping fleet.IGPIC and other insurance groups have been drawn into sanctions regimes in the past; for example, they found themselves sanctioned for covering cargoes of Iranian oil during western sanctions on Tehran.Ministers are due to hold talks with the insurers on the capping scheme. Some industry figures have expressed unease about using insurance as a mechanism for enforcing political decisions, pointing out that underwriters may not necessarily know the trading price.Moscow and Beijing could set up their own marine insurance systems and, if global tanker fleets refuse to carry Russian oil, importers such as China and India – the latter now a major market for discounted supplies from Moscow – could use state-owned vessels.Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, acknowledged at the G7 summit in Bavaria that the capping plan needs work and cannot be “pulled off the shelf as a tried and true method”.However, the idea was formulated in Washington and Janet Yellen, head of the US Treasury, is a strong backer.The US Treasury reports Ms Yellen has spoken to Constantinos Petrides, finance minister of Cyprus, which has Europe’s largest ship management centre, about “the goal of placing a price limit on Russian oil to deprive the Kremlin of revenue to finance their war in Ukraine while mitigating spillover effects for the global economy”.A senior US official said in London: “Every day that goes by, we see additional revenues flying into Russia and every additional day sees Vladimir Putin’s war chest growing.“We are doing everything we can to stop Russia profiteering from its war of aggression in Ukraine. There is a need for urgency in meeting the complex technical and diplomatic challenges we are facing.” More

Public opinion has shifted dramatically in support of rail strikes by the RMT trade union, a new poll has found.Pollsters Opinium found 45 per cent of the public now say they support the stoppages, with just 37 per cent opposed.The shift in views by a net 12 points comes after RMT general secretary Mick Lynch took to television and radio studios last week to make his union’s case to the public.His frank and direct appearances won plaudits from across the political spectrum on social media, though it was at the time unclear whether the polls could shift.Yet the new figures, polled on Sunday after the dust settled on round one of the dispute, show support for the strike rising +7 percentage points from the same poll question on Thursday, and opposition falling by -6 percentage points.Polling ahead of the strike was mixed, with pollsters suggesting that people believed the walk-outs were justified, but stopping short of full support.Yet that ambiguity appears to have disappeared in the wake of the three days of action, which saw workers from over a dozen operators and the infrastructure manager Network Rail walk out over job losses and a below-inflation pay deal.In a statement, the RMT said: “It takes time to change public opinion. It is no easy task. However, day by day and hour by hour more people see through the Tory lies about ‘modernisation’ and realise just how vital it is to support rail workers.”The government was widely criticised for refusing to intervene ahead of the strike, failing to sit down with unions and employers to strike out a deal.The RMT has said more strikes could take place if the dispute is not resolved.But since the stoppages transport secretary Grant Shapps has upped the rhetoric against the rail workers, accusing them of outdated work practices. Labour leader Keir Starmer banned his frontbenchers from supporting the strike on picket lines during the dispute, in an attempt to impress hostile voters and pundits.But impressed by the latest poll showing widespread public support, Labour MP Jon Trickett said: “The RMT union has shown what strong leadership and clarity of message can do to public opinion. Good leadership is about being a signpost, not a weathervane.” More

Britain’s policing minister has claimed that Sadiq Khan should “share responsibility” for the Metropolitan Police’s slide into special measures.Kit Malthouse suggested that, as police and crime commissioner (PCC) for the force, the mayor of London should “consider his position”.But four of the six police forces currently in special measures have Conservative PCCs.The elected role was created by the Tory-Lib Dem coalition government to replace policing boards previously tasked with controlling regional forces’ finances and holding them to account.Of the six forces currently in a process akin to special measures instigated by HM Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC), four are headed by Tory PCCs. Staffordshire Police and Wiltshire Police have had Conservative PCCs since the post was created a decade ago, while Cleveland and Gloucestershire have had Tory incumbents since last year’s elections.The Metropolitan Police and Greater Manchester Police have Labour politicians in the post, as it is rolled into the responsiblities of elected mayors.Mr Malthouse said PCCs were “designed to provide a focus point of accountability for the electorate”, adding: “If I had been in that job I would consider my position.”He accused Mr Khan of “falling asleep at the wheel” and said he had to “get a grip”.“We expect him to provide an urgent update explaining how he plans to fix this as soon as possible,” the policing minister added.“Now is not the time for the mayor to distance himself from the Met, he must lean in and share responsibility for a failure of governance and the work needed to put it right.”Ministers have not made the same call in parliament to the PCCs of the other forces in special measures.In a statement posted on Twitter in response to the killing of Zara Aleena, Mr Khan said: “I’m utterly determined to make our city the safest it can possibly be for everyone.”Following the announcement that Scotland Yard was being put in special measures, the mayor said: “Unlike many others, I have long been clear that wide-ranging reforms are urgently needed for the Met to regain the trust and confidence of Londoners.”Sadiq Khan welcomes decision to reinvestigate Met Police over Stephen Port case handlingA dispute about necessary changes sparked the resignation of Dame Cressida Dick in February, which saw Mr Khan criticised by Conservative MPs as Priti Patel triggered an inquiry into the circumstances of her decision.Shadow home office minister Sarah Jones said Mr Malthouse shared a version of his statement with the opposition that did not include his “political attacks” on the London mayor.The deputy speaker of the House of Commons, Dame Eleanor Laing, said the move was “unusual” and she had also been handed an incomplete statement by the policing minister.“It is expected that the opposition should have the statement that is actually being given,” she added.Mr Malthouse said he made last-minute amendments because he felt “strongly about the issue” as London’s former deputy mayor for crime, who served under Boris Johnson.“The whole idea [of PCCs] is that they should be the voice of those people that elect us and share accountability with the force that they govern,” he added.HMIC confirmed that Scotland Yard had been put in its “engage” monitoring process, which is used where a force is not responding to concerns or succeeding in managing, mitigating or eradicating them.It will be ordered to develop an “improvement plan” to address the issues identified by the inspectorate and a “policing performance oversight group” will then consider the progress made. More

Dominic Raab refuses to add women’s right to choose on abortion to Bill of RightsA bid by Tories to block a Labour MP from charing an investigation into whether or not Boris johnson misled parliament over Partygate has failed.Harriet Harman has been confirmed as the lead on a Commmons probe into Covid lawbreaking parties in Downing Street during lockdown.The prime minister will not face the committee until the autumn, it was revealed as the inquiry was formally launched on Wednesday afternoon.Earlier, Dominic Raab ruled out enshrining women’s right to abortion in law, as he stood in for Boris Johnson at prime minister’s questions.Mr Raab, the deputy PM and justice minister, said the legality of abortion in the UK was settled, when he was asked to support an amendment on the issue to his proposed Bill of Rights.He was filling in for the prime minister, who is at the Nato summit in Madrid.Show latest update

1656513913Nordic Nato invitations a ‘great step forward’ – PMBoris Johnson has described the invitation granted to two Nordic countries to join Nato a “great step forward” for the military alliance, No 10 says.Following a meeting with Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish president Sauli Niinisto at the Nato summit in Madrid, a Downing Street spokesman said: “The prime minister reiterated his staunch support for Sweden and Finland’s Nato membership aspirations.“He described their accession as a great step forward for Nato and welcomed the progress made since his visits to Sweden and Finland last month.“The prime minister said that the membership of two more pro-peace democracies will permanently strengthen our defensive alliance, helping to keep us all safe.“The prime minister updated on his recent visit to Kyiv. The leaders discussed the need to oppose Russian threats and intimidation in all its guises.“That includes by ensuring that the people of Ukraine have the tools they need to turn the tide in Putin’s futile war of aggression – they agreed that (Vladimir) Putin is offering Ukraine no other option.”Emily Atkinson29 June 2022 15:451656513008Downing Street staff told they can give evidence anonymously to PM ‘lies’ probeNo 10 staff have been told they will be able to submit evidence anonymously to the committee investigating whether Boris Johnson lied to the Commons over Partygate.Subject to Privileges Committee chair Harriet Harman being able to identify the individuals in discussions with committee staff, the panel determined it would be willing to take written or oral evidence from people who wish to remain anonymous.The MPs gave until 29 July for witnesses and evidence to come forward, saying it can be submitted to the committee website.Emily Atkinson29 June 2022 15:301656511333Harriet Harman will lead probe into whether PM misled parliament on PartygateLabour grandee Harriet Harman has been selected to lead the Commons investigation into whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament over Partygate.The privileges committee issued a call for witnesses to come forward with evidence of the prime minister’s knowledge of rule-breaking gatherings in No 10.Ms Harman, a former acting leader of the Labour Party, was unanimously elected to chair the committee, which will be advised by Sir Ernest Ryder, a former lord justice of appeal.Our politics editor Andrew Woodcock will have more on this story as it comes in:Matt Mathers29 June 2022 15:02165651036016% of public still believe Brexit is going well, poll findsA full 16 per cent of the British public still believe Brexit is going well, a new poll has found.A new survey by pollsters YouGov found a significant majority of people, 54 per cent, think Britain’s EU exit is going badly, with 20 per cent saying neither.A policy correspondent Jon Stone reports: Matt Mathers29 June 2022 14:461656508515More than half of voters support Brexit’s NI protocolA majority of voters in Northern Ireland support the Brexit protocol, according to a new poll.Some 55 per cent said they viewed the new trading arrangements as appropriate for managing the impact of being outside of the EU.Meanwhile, some 53 per cent said, overall the trading arrangements are a “good thing for Northern Ireland.38 per cent and 37 per cent of respondents respectively are of the opposite view, according to the survey by Lucid Talk and Queens University Belfast.Matt Mathers29 June 2022 14:151656507509Boris Johnson says he won’t boycott G20 even if ‘pariah’ Putin goesThe prime minster has ruled out a British boycott of the forthcoming G20 summit, indicating that he would go even if Russian president Vladimir Putin chose to turn up.The prospect of an extraordinary showdown between western leaders and the Russian president was raised after the Kremlin said Mr Putin would go to November’s conference in Indonesia.Jane Dalton29 June 2022 13:581656505949Boris Johnson keen on forging ‘Roman Empire’ of wider EuropeBoris Johnson says he is keen to forge a loose political alliance of European and north African leaders – comparing it to the Roman Empire in its pomp.French president Emmanuel Macron raised the idea of a new “European political community” with the prime minister when the pair met at the G7 summit in Germany.Jane Dalton29 June 2022 13:321656505352It’s no wonder the PM has fled the country, claims RaynerAngela Rayner said it was no wonder Boris Johnson had fled the country after Labour’s victory in Wakefield, as she clashed with Dominic Raab over strikes, taxation and the prime minister’s job.She said she would “revel in the opportunity” to have more than just by-elections , adding: “Call a general election and see where the people are.”She added: “This is the man who once said a high level of Government taxation was hurting UK competitiveness. Now he is backing the Prime Minister who wants to put taxes up 15 times. At this rate, working people will be paying £500 billion more in tax by 2030.“How high does he think the burden on working people should get before he says enough is enough?”Dominic Raab replied the Government were “the ones helping working people with a tax cut of £330”, and listed a series of other measures the Government has taken to help with the rising cost of living.He added: “We are the ones with a plan for low unemployment, a high-wage, high-skill economy, and Labour – it is back to year zero.”The full exchange: Angela Rayner and Dominic Raab clash over tax risesJane Dalton29 June 2022 13:221656504782Raab attack ‘champagne socialist’ RaynerAs Dominic Raab an Angela Rayner clashed over striking railway workers, he criticised her as a “champagne socialist” for going to the opera.He asked where she was when the Labour frontbench were on picket lines last week, he asked.Dominic Raab criticises ‘champagne socialist’ Angela Rayner for going to operaJane Dalton29 June 2022 13:131656504540Abortion laws in the UK: what’s allowed and what is notOnly women in Northern Ireland have a legal right to an abortion in the UK. But abortions may legally be carried out within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy in England, Scotland and Wales.As the deputy prime minister rules out changing UK abortion laws, here’s a run-down of what abortion laws in the UK state:Jane Dalton29 June 2022 13:09 More

Boris Johnson will not face a grilling by the committee investigating whether he lied to Parliament over Downing Street parties until the autumn, it was revealed as the inquiry was formally launched today.A Conservative bid to block Harriet Harman from leading the investigation failed, after the senior Labour MP was confirmed as chair at the inquiry’s formal launch today.But no decision has yet been taken over whether oral evidence sessions of questioning by the Commons Privileges Committee will be held in public and before the TV cameras.The Commons voted in April for the committee to conduct an investigation into whether Mr Johnson’s repeated denials that Covid lockdown rules were broken at No 10 amounted to a contempt of parliament.A finding of contempt could put the prime minister’s position in doubt, by allowing MPs to vote on a suspension from parliament, which could itself trigger a recall petition in his Uxbridge constituency.And the PM would be in peril simply for being found to have lied to parliament, something which the ministerial code of conduct treats as a resigning offence. If he resisted pressure to resign in those circumstances, Tory backbenchers have made clear they would attempt to force a second no-confidence vote.At a meeting today to confirm Ms Harman’s chairmanship, it was agreed to appoint former Appeal Court judge Sir Ernest Ryder as an adviser. Sir Ernest recently completed a review of the fairness and natural justice within the House of Commons standards system.In a move seemingly designed to encourage potential No 10 whistle-blowers to come forward, the committee confirmed that it is willing to take both oral and written evidence from witnesses who wish to remain anonymous.The committee has an in-built Conservative majority, with four Tory MPs, two from Labour and one from the SNP. All eyes will be on the Tory members, who are expected to come under intense pressure to spare the prime minister by voting along party lines.Minister Michael Ellis earlier this month offered his support to Tory MPs who were trying to block Harman as chair on the grounds that the Mother of the House had previously tweeted her belief that the PM lied.Speaking from the despatch box, Mr Ellis agreed with an MP who asked whether it was right that “those placed in a position of judgment over others must not have a previously stated position on the matter in question”, saying it was a “very good point”.As reports of lockdown-breaching parties at Downing Street first emerged last December, Mr Johnson told the House of Commons that “all guidance was followed in No 10” and that “I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken”.After aide Allegra Stratton resigned for joking about parties, he told MPs that he was “sickened myself and furious about that”, but had been “repeatedly assured that the rules were not broken”. He said that “the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times”.A police inquiry later issued 126 fixed penalty notices for lockdown breaches to 83 people at No 10, including the prime minister.The committee issued a call for evidence about the PM’s knowledge of activities in 10 Downing Street and the Cabinet Office during Covid regulations and about any briefings given to, or inquiries made by, Mr Johnson relating to those events.The committee announced that it will spend the coming weeks finalising details of the procedure for the inquiry – including the question of whether evidence sessions will be held in private – before starting hearings in the autumn. More