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Boris Johnson says he was ‘at work’ during No 10 garden gatheringBoris Johnson is facing renewed pressure after it emerged on Tuesday that Simon Case – the cabinet secretary formerly put in charge of investigating alleged government parties held during lockdown last year – may have withheld information he had about Christmas parties held in his own office.Mr Case stepped down last week as head of the inquiry amid anger over a Christmas quiz, held in the Cabinet Office on 17 December 2020, as well as a drinks event in the same month which he is said to have been seen walking around at, holding a glass in his hand. While Britain’s top civil servant provided the necessary people with assurances he had not participated in and had no knowledge of any social gatherings, he was later forced to admit he was aware of at least one such event, as reported by The Independent. The latest revelations come amid bleak figures for the prime minister, including two new polls published today. One, by YouGov, found that 71 per cent of British adults believe the PM is doing “badly” in his role as leader of the country. Show latest update

1640097127Simon Case accused of misleading officials over lockdown partiesBritain’s top civil servant has been accused of misleading officials over what he knew about Christmas parties in his own department during lockdown.Simon Case stepped down last week as head of an investigation into claims of parties in Downing Street, after it emerged there had been a quiz – registered in work calendars as ‘Christmas party!’ – in the Cabinet Office on December 17 last year.Before being removed from the investigation, Mr Case assured colleagues that he had no knowledge of any parties or social gatherings of any kind at the Cabinet Office in the run up to Christmas 2020, The Independent understands.Our economics editor Anna Isaac has the full report:Sam Hancock21 December 2021 14:321640096527Watch: Sunak unveils £1bn of new funding for firms hit by OmicronRishi Sunak unveils £1bn of new funding for firms hit by Omicron waveSam Hancock21 December 2021 14:221640095927MSPs’ pay set to rise by 3.4% next yearOver to Scotland. The pay rate for MSPs is set to increase by 3.4 per cent next year, after it was frozen in 2021.The Scottish Parliament Corporate Body, a cross-party group, set out the proposed increase on Tuesday, which will see the basic salary for MSPs go from £64,470 last year to £66,662 in April 2022.Last year, pay was due to increase by 5.1 per cent but was instead frozen at 0 per cent because of the pandemic.A report said: “After having agreed to a pay freeze for the current financial year, it is proposed that MSP and ministerial salaries will increase by 3.4 per cent in keeping with the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) index, as provided for in the Members’ Salaries Scheme.”The proposed increase in the funding provision for MSPs’ staff is 4.5 per cent.Scottish government ministers have had a voluntary pay freeze since 2008.Additional reporting by PA ScotlandSam Hancock21 December 2021 14:121640094953Energy bills set to threaten PM with cost-of-living crisisHousehold energy bills are tipped to soar to a record £2,000 a year, threatening Boris Johnson with a cost-of-living crisis just as taxes soar.The price cap – which eases the pain for families – may have to be hiked by more than 50 per cent in April, experts are warning, because of unprecedented wholesale costs.Suppliers were authorised to increase bills by 12 per cent from October, to £1,277 a year for a typical household on standard tariffs, writes our deputy political editor Rob Merrick. A further announcement is due in February for a second rise in April.Sam Hancock21 December 2021 13:551640094435Sunak support for business keeps public guessing on new Covid restrictionsRishi Sunak did nothing to lift the cloud of confusion over whether tougher Covid restrictions are on the way, has he announced a £1bn package for hospitality and entertainment firms hit by the “lockdown by stealth”.The cabinet shelved a decision on Monday – and is now awaiting fresh data on the extent to which soaring Omicron infections will trip over into a level of hospital admissions that will swamp the NHS.That data, from Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College, is expected in the next 36 hours, possibly triggering a recall of parliament next week to approve curbs before the New Year.But the chancellor gave nothing away, repeating Boris Johnson’s plea that the government is wrestling with an enormous amount of uncertainty at the moment.Asked if harsher restrictions will be imposed before the New Year, Mr Sunak said: “I absolutely appreciate people’s frustration with all of this.“I’d refer people to the prime minister’s words yesterday and, unfortunately, we’re just dealing with an enormous amount of uncertainty at the moment.“What the prime minister said is that we’re reviewing the data day by day, hour by hour, keeping the situation under constant review, but can’t rule anything out.”Rob Merrick21 December 2021 13:471640093359Sunak ‘dragged kicking and screaming’ into announcing support, says LabourRachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, responds to Rishi Sunak’s announcement of £1bn in support for businesses.Labour were asking “Where is the chancellor?” last week as Mr Sunak was on a trip to the US while hospitality businesses suffered from cancellations as people chose to stay home to avoid the Omicron variant of coronavirus. Liam James21 December 2021 13:291640092465Rishi Sunak announces £1bn Covid support packageRishi Sunak has announced £1bn in support for hospitality and leisure businesses in England hit by recent changes to Covid guidance.Each eligible business, such as a pub or restaurant, will be able to claim £6,000 from the support package.The chancellor will also make £30m available for the culture recovery fund to help venues such as theatres, art galleries and museums.And the government will cover the cost of statutory sick pay for firms with fewer than 250 employees.Liam James21 December 2021 13:141640090979Boris Johnson poll: ‘Breaking new records everyday’Some reaction to the latest YouGov poll on Boris Johnson’s performance as prime minister. With 71 per cent of the British public saying they thought he was doing a bad job, it is the worst feedback Mr Johnson has seen from a YouGov poll since taking power in July 2019.Many reacting online have focused on the 29 per cent who did not think he was doing badly.Liam James21 December 2021 12:49164008951171% think Boris Johnson doing ‘badly’ as PMMore than two thirds of Britons think Boris Johnson is doing a bad job as prime minister, according to a new YouGov poll.On the flip side, just 23 per cent of the near 2,000 adults surveyed believe the current Tory leader is doing “well” in his post. It comes amid growing distrust in the PM due to anger over alleged lockdown-breaching parties and delayed Covid restrictions.Sam Hancock21 December 2021 12:251640088010NYE: Big Ben to have all clock faces on display for first time since works beganA Big Ben update now. The famous clock tower will ‘bong’ on New Year’s Eve and have all its faces on display for the first time in four years.The bell will be struck 12 times to mark the start of 2022, as a project to restore the Palace of Westminster’s Elizabeth Tower nears its end.In the days running up to 3 December the bell will be heard chiming, as engineers test it ahead of the celebrations.Ian Westworth, one of parliament’s team of clock mechanics who will be making sure Big Ben strikes on NYE, said: “It’s iconic – it’s probably the world’s most famous clock, and to have had our hands on every single nut and bolt is a huge privilege.“It’s going to be quite emotional when it’s all over – there will be sadness that the project has finished, but happiness that we have got it back and everything’s up and running again.”The chimes on 31 December will also be the final occasion that Big Ben will be struck using a temporary mechanism. More

First minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced strict limits on football matches and all other live events in Scotland in a bid to stem the rise of Omicron.Ms Sturgeon announced that the capacity of all sports and outdoor live events would be capped at up to 500 people from 26 December for a period of three weeks.Numbers at indoor public events are to be limited to 100 standing or 200 seated, while large New Year’s Eve street parties – including the annual Hogmanay celebration in Edinburgh – will be cancelled.“This will of course make sports matches, including football, effectively spectator-free over this three-week period,” said Ms Sturgeon told the Scottish parliament on Tuesday.“I know how disappointing this will be for those looking forward to these events,” said the SNP leader. “If we don’t stem the spread of the virus, both health and the economy will suffer.”Ms Sturgeon has made clear there will be no new restrictions on socialising before Christmas, beyond the current “strong” guidance to limit mixing to no more than three households before and after Christmas.“We are not changing the advice for Christmas I set out last week … I want to be clear to individuals that the advice I gave out last week is the advice that will take us through Christmas.”But she said more restrictions will be imposed on Scotland’s hospitality venues immediately after Boxing Day, Ms Sturgeon said.From 27 December, a requirement for table service-only will be reintroduced for venues serving alcohol. “And we will also ask indoor hospitality and leisure venues to ensure one-metre distance, not within, but between groups of people who are attending together,” she said.The Welsh government announced earlier on Tuesday that sporting events in Wales will be played behind closed doors from 26 December to help control the spread of Omicron. Nightclubs in Wales will be closed from 27 December under the new rules.Meanwhile, Scotland is to receive around £80m in extra funding after chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a £1bn rescue package for the hospitality and leisure sectors, including grants of up to £6,000 for each premise for each eligible firm.Ms Sturgeon told MSPs that recent funding from the Treasury will give Scotland an extra £175m to spend now, bringing the total package for business support over the next three weeks to £375m. More

Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal with Australia will damage the UK’s agriculture and food sectors by hundreds of millions of pounds, according to the government’s own impact assessment.British farming, forestry and fishing will suffer a £94m hit from the free trade agreement, a Department for International Trade (DIT) document has revealed.The government also expects a £225m hit to the semi-processed food sector, conceding that it was another area expected to “contract” as a result of increased competition.Labour said ministers had “failed to stand up” for British interests, while the Liberal Democrats claimed farmers and others were being “sold down the river” over the deal signed with Australia last week.“This impact assessment proves what so many feared – buried in the small print is a £100m hit to our farming and fishing sectors that will hit rural communities hardest,” said the Lib Dems’ environment spokesperson Tim Farron.The MP added: “Boris Johnson has sold farmers down the river to make a quick buck in a misguided trade deal with Australia. Now the reality of what’s on the table is clear, it’s vital that parliament is given a vote on the deal.”The government predicts a reduction in gross value added (GVA) of around 0.7% (£94m) to primary agriculture and 2.65 per cent (£225m) to semi-processed foods compared with 2019.The economic blow to Britain’s agri-food businesses will be “driven by increased import competition in the beef and sheep meat” from Australia, the document stated.The DIT report also found that Britain’s agriculture and semi-processed foods sectors could see a further reduction in GVA “over the long-run” as a result of the free trade agreement.Labour MP Nick Thomas-Symonds, shadow international trade secretary, told The Independent that the “shocking” figures demonstrated clear ministers were “failing to stand up for UK interests in negotiations”.He added: “Ministers seem to be prioritising a press release announcing a completed deal over supporting jobs and livelihoods here in the UK. The British people deserve better from this incompetent, failing government.”The impact assessment on the deal refers to Australia as a “large, competitive producer of agricultural products” – pointing to the “potential for the deal to result in lower output for some agricultural sectors [in the UK] as a result”.Meanwhile, an independent study on the Australia and soon-to-be-finalised New Zealand trade deals found that “the losers from these deals are much more concentrated in parts of the agricultural sector”.The Resolution Foundation think tank said the government “appears to be showing a willingness to accept some losses in less productive and competitive domestic industries – even in highly politically sensitive industries such as agriculture – in order to deliver its Global Britain agenda.”The UK’s manufacturing sectors, such as motor vehicles and machinery and equipment industry, are expected to gain the most from the Australia deal, according to the impact assessment.The trade department insisted that the latest free trade agreement will deliver a boost to the economy overall.A spokesperson for the DIT said: “The deal is expected to increase trade with Australia by 53 per cent, boost the economy by £2.3bn and add £900m to household wages each year in the long-run. It will also play an important role in levelling up the UK, delivering benefits for towns, cities and rural areas throughout the country.”The department added: “Maintaining our high standards is a red line in all our trade negotiations. That is why this deal contains safeguards to support the most sensitive parts of the UK farming community, including a gradual removal of tariffs over 10 years and a safety net that allows tariffs or restrictions to be reimposed if the industry faces serious harm.” More

Britain’s top civil servant has been accused of misleading officials over what he knew about Christmas parties in his own department during lockdown. Simon Case stepped down last week as head of an investigation into claims of parties in Downing Street, after it emerged there had been a quiz – registered in work calendars as ‘Christmas party!’ – in the Cabinet Office on December 17 last year. He also faced allegations of an impromptu drinks for 15-20 people held in and around his office in the second week in December, after an investigation by The Independent and Politico. Before being removed from the investigation, Mr Case assured colleagues that he had no knowledge of any parties or social gatherings of any kind at the Cabinet Office in the run up to Christmas 2020, the Independent understands. The revelation comes after the Independent was initially told by a Cabinet Office spokesperson that any allegation of a party or social gathering in 70 Whitehall was “categorically untrue”. It was also suggested nothing that could possibly be considered as a party occurred or appeared in calendars, emails or other messages throughout the entire month of December. Mr Case recused himself from the Downing Street party investigation last Friday following publication of Independent’s report of “waiting room drinks” and the separate December 17 quiz.This was in order to ensure the investigation retained “public confidence”, a Downing Street spokesperson said. Sue Gray, second permanent secretary at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities was appointed as Mr Case’s replacement. Sources had described an event in mid-December with prosecco and wine in the waiting room of the Cabinet Secretary’s office. Mr Case was seen carrying a glass as he wandered “in and out” of the event and greeted staff, they alleged. Civil servants scrutinised these claims of social gatherings in 70 Whitehall during December in order to ensure Mr Case did not need to step away from the party investigation.Mr Case provided officials with assurances that he had not participated in and had no knowledge of any social gatherings, the Independent understands, despite being later forced to admit that he was aware of at least one gathering.The civil service code requires all officials to behave with integrity, honesty, objectivity and impartiality. Mr Case’s conduct had fallen short compared to the high standards of transparency and openness required of officials by misleading fellow officials, the Independent has been told. A spokesperson for the Cabinet Office said: “Staff in the Cabinet Secretary’s private office took part in a virtual quiz on 17 December 2020. A small number of them, who had been working in the office throughout the pandemic and on duty that day, took part from their desks, while the rest of the team were virtual. “The Cabinet Secretary played no part in the event, but walked through the team’s office on the way to his own office. No outside guests or other staff were invited or present. This lasted for an hour and drinks and snacks were bought by those attending. He also spoke briefly to staff in the office before leaving.” Fresh questions over the Cabinet Secretary’s behaviour come as pressure mounts on Boris Johnson to explain his and others’ conduct at Number 10 during the pandemic. A photo published on Sunday by the Guardian, showed wine and cheese being consumed by the Prime Minister, his wife, Carrie, and advisers and a person identified as Matt Hancock, former health secretary in the Downing Street Garden. The garden gathering was held amid tight restrictions in May 2020. The photo emerged after a joint investigation by the Independent and Guardian revealed a party on that date. Downing Street has described the event as a work meeting though deputy prime minister Dominic Raab yesterday undermined that suggestion by saying the drinks took place after work. The matter of gatherings whilst restrictions were in place has become especially sensitive given the government move to impose fresh ‘Plan B’ measures, and amid fears of a fresh lockdown to curb the spread of the omicron variant.Labour’s shadow paymaster general, Fleur Anderson, has written to her counterpart Michael Ellis MP asking him to correct the Parliamentary record that said he was confident in the impartiality of the Cabinet Secretary when asked if he could lead the investigation into Downing Street Parties with no personal interests. Ms Anderson has also asked for confirmation on when Ms Gray will share the findings of her investigation.One Conservative backbencher – a member of the Covid Research Group (CRG) – told The Independent stories about alleged parties had made the public question the rules: “The photos and reports of gatherings in government make it more difficult to get compliance. They haven’t helped at all.” “The government’s authority to bring in restrictions undoubtedly been weakened. The backbenchers frustration is that No 10 is supposed to be a slick operation – but they’re coming across as incredibly amateurish. Where were the senior figures making sure everyone inside government complied with the rules?” The Tory MP: “It really hasn’t helped when there is some fatigue about rules out there already.” Meanwhile, another conservative MP, Marcus Fysh said the photos and reports of gatherings in government last year “have annoyed people for sure”, adding: “Everyone is annoyed – of course they’re annoyed at the thought public servants are making rules in one direction and doing something else. But I don’t think we know the full details. With most people, I don’t think it will affect their thinking too much.”The lockdown sceptic added: “The important thing is the policy – if the government is open and realistic about the data they will still be trusted. If they’re not, I don’t think they will.” More

Household energy bills are tipped to soar to a record £2,000 a year, threatening Boris Johnson with a cost-of-living crisis just as taxes soar.The price cap – which eases the pain for families – may have to be hiked by more than 50 per cent in April, experts are warning, because of unprecedented wholesale costs.The energy regulator authorised suppliers to increase bills by 12 per cent from October, to £1,277 a year for a typical household on standard tariffs.A further announcement is due in February for a second rise in April, with an increase already inevitable to pay for the collapse of more than two dozen UK energy companies in recent months.“With wholesale commodity prices remaining elevated, we suggest that the tariff cap could jump by 56 per cent reaching £2,000 [a year] for the summer 2022 period,” Martin Young, an analyst at the investment bank Investec said.Higher wholesale costs would account for £560 of the increase and supplier failures a further £72 per household, he told The Times.The increase would come as “a shock to many, with implications for discretionary spend, inflation and fuel poverty”, Mr Young added.It is set to arrive at the worst moment for the beleaguered prime minister, in the same month as big council tax hikes and his National Insurance rise to pay for higher health and care spending.Inflation is predicted to leap to 6 per cent next year, far outstripping wage increases and leaving workers worse off – despite his misleading boast that Brexit is boosting pay packets.The following month could also be crucial to whether Mr Johnson faces a leadership challenge from unhappy Tory MPs, with many focused on feared local election losses in May.There have been similar forecasts for the soaring price cap after April. The business analysts Cornwall Insight predicted £1,925 a year, while Citizens Advice suggested bills could rise to £1,891.Cold weather and low gas exports from Russia have been blamed for wholesale gas and electricity prices across Europe reaching fresh highs in recent days.UK gas prices rose by 8 per cent to close at an all-time high of 370.25 pence per therm on Monday night, according to Icis, the price reporting agency – more than seven times the typical price over the past decade.The failure of more than two dozen UK energy firms has led to multibillion-pound costs that are expected to be recouped from energy bills.The price cap was introduced in 2019 to protect customers from “rip-off” prices and is updated twice a year by Ofgem, the regulator.It limits bills for 11 million households on standard tariffs and four million households with prepayment meters. More

The emergence of the Omicron variant is causing concern around the world, not least because it is thought to be highly transmissible and because the 32 mutations of its spike protein suggest it might be able to resist current vaccines.The UK has recorded 12 deaths from the new variant so far and 45,145 confirmed cases, prompting fears that further social restrictions could be imposed on the British public in the final days leading up to Christmas, dashing the festive plans of millions. However, the government has so far resisted implementing any new measures this side of 25 December. Following a special meeting of the Cabinet on Monday afternoon, the prime minister said he had to “reserve the possibility” that further action would be needed at some point but said there were “still some things that we need to be clearer about before we decide to go further”.Mr Johnson said ministers were monitoring the data “hour by hour” and that the arguments for taking further action were “very, very finely balanced”.“Unfortunately I must say to people that we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public, to protect public health, to protect our NHS,” he added. “We are looking at all kinds of things to keep Omicron under control and we will rule nothing out.”The prime minister is understood to be waiting for more data on Omicron to become available before he makes a decision, a stance that has already seen him accused of “dithering” by scientists and his political opponents.At the weekend, London mayor Sadiq Khan declared a major incident over the extent of the outbreak in the capital while NHS England has announced a return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, level four national incident, meaning that the health service’s response will be coordinated as a national effort, rather than led by individual trusts. Overall, the UK added another 91,743 infections in 24 hours on Monday 20 December plus a further 44 fatalities, a slight fall from the pandemic high of 93,045 recorded the preceding Friday.To put that in perspective, case numbers were at 27,052 on 19 December 2020, the day Mr Johnson “cancelled” Christmas with “a very heavy heart”, abandoning a restrictions amnesty on household mixing and imposing severe tier 4 restrictions on much of the south east of England.Asked on Sunday by the BBC’s departing Andrew Marr about the possibility of further new restrictions being introduced before Christmas, health secretary Sajid Javid declined to rule it out, saying instead that there are “no guarantees in this pandemic” and that the “fast-moving” situation was being kept under review.Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance is said to have led the call for fresh measures to drive down infection rates and ease the pressure on the NHS.Sir Patrick’s fellow advisers have been equally outspoken, with Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warning that Omicron is “coming at us like an express train” and insisting that the government must give the public a “good, clear message” about how “serious the crisis is”.The prospect of introducing a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown after Christmas has been mooted – and appears likely to be broadly popular with the public – with plans made available to ministers for consideration and apparently including a ban on meeting others indoors except for work purposes and limiting pubs and restaurants to outdoor service only. Both Mr Johnson and Mr Javid have repeatedly declined opportunities to definitively rule out tougher measures of this sort and transport secretary Grant Shapps did say last week that Parliament would be recalled over Christmas to vote on new restrictions should they become necessary, suggesting they are very much in the air.It is clear that the PM hopes encouraging the takeup of booster vaccines and the “Plan B” restrictions he recently introduced will be enough to see off the threat, at least until after Christmas, although the rising case numbers continue to cast considerable doubt on that contention.As preventative measures against Omicron under “Plan B”, Britons are currently again being ordered to wear face masks in shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship and on public transport, to work from home order where possible and to show an NHS Covid pass in return for entry to nightclubs and other large venues and for outdoor events where there are more than 4,000 people, measures voted through the House of Commons despite a significant Tory revolt.The government has further revised its approach to boosters, planning to make them available to all over-18s by the end of December and halving the amount of time between second and third injections from six months to three, all in the hope of staving off the feared “tidal wave” of infections we are already beginning to see.Some form of “Plan C” – be it a circuit-breaker or something else – could well materialise should the Omicron outbreak worsen over the festive season and into the new year but, as for imposing a fourth national lockdown as seen earlier in the pandemic, that is considered the most extreme measure that could be taken, given the brutal economic toll it takes, hence the reluctance from Whitehall.But the Sage advisers have been unambiguous in calling for stricter curbs, with the influential Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London openly entertaining the possibility for several weeks.Even before Omicron began to cast its sinister shadow across the globe, many Britons were already glancing anxiously towards the continent as Austria and the Netherlands reintroduced lockdowns in response to spiking cases of Covid-19.The World Health Organisation (WHO) had said it was “very worried” about the spread in Europe and warned 700,000 more deaths could be recorded by March unless urgent action is taken, bringing the total to 2.2 million since the pandemic began.Prior to the latest worrying developments sparked by Omicon, Mr Johnson’s government had been reluctant to reimpose restrictions at all, despite consistently high case numbers, preferring to pass the responsibility for personal safety onto the public and pursue its “Plan A” of promoting vaccine take-up and boosters to counter the waning of the country’s currently impressive level of immunity.While the vaccines have consistently kept death rates low since the spring, the UK’s infection level has remained consistently high, typically hovering around the 40,000-per-day mark but are now at more than double that.But the prime minister nevertheless doggedly refused to bend to scientists’ calls for the implementation of “Plan B” until it became unavoidable, no doubt out of fear that such a step could jeopardise Britain’s stumbling economic recovery.He might also have been keen to ward off the inevitable anger it would provoke, having seen anti-lockdown protests – some of them violent – erupt in Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Croatia.Londoners were certainly unhappy about the initial return of the mask mandate, accusing the PM of hypocrisy for declining to wear one himself at several public engagements.However, in other quarters, there appeared to be a clear appetite for new restrictions even before Omicron, at least according to the polls.A recent survey of 900 managers and 1,200 employees carried out by Hack Future Lab found 53 per cent would welcome a “festive lockdown” for the sake of their own well-being after struggling to come to terms with the return to ordinary working conditions, often finding themselves forced to take on extra tasks to cover for absent colleagues.Another poll by Savanta ComRes revealed 45 per cent of adults would be in favour of a selective lockdown targeting only those who had declined to get their Covid jabs and therefore could pose an ongoing risk to othersBut, until Omicron threw a fresh spanner into the works, there was a credible case for believing that the UK was in such a strong position that it could avoid the worst of the outbreak marauding across Europe.Omicron variant shows just how ‘perilous’ Covid situation is, WHO saysAlthough Britain’s infection rate has remained high for months, it has also been highly stable, lingering at a seven-day average of around 600 daily cases per million people, whereas Austria and the Netherlands have suddenly spiked to 1,500 and 1,250 respectively from well below that starting point since the beginning of October.Part of the reason for this is that the UK was hit by the more infectious Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus sooner and was therefore able to tackle them ahead of its European neighbours and unlock earlier.As always with this pandemic, so much remains unknown and nothing can ever be definitively ruled out.Many will be haunted by memories of Christmas 2020, when plans had to be changed at the last moment to rein in climbing case numbers, and families were left frustrated, disappointed and unable to see vulnerable loved ones.While the festive television adverts might have been busy encouraging reckless spending and promising a bumper Yuletide to compensate for last year (while stocks last, that is), many would do well to temper their excitement by recalling the haunting words of public health professor Gabriel Scally from last December.“There is no point having a very merry Christmas and then burying friends and relations in January and February,” he said. 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Boris Johnson is distrusted as a source of guidance on Covid by almost six out of 10 Britons (59 per cent) – more than distrust information from social media – according to a new poll.And almost three in 10 (28 per cent) said that they are less likely to follow Covid rules as a result of reports of Christmas parties at 10 Downing Street – including 37 per cent of the younger 18-34 age groups who are most likely to cram into pubs and clubs to party in the next few crucial weeks.The Savanta survey for The Independent was published as the nation waited to see if Mr Johnson will order fresh curbs over the festive period, after cabinet rejected scientific advice for swift action to stop the Omicron variant overwhelming the NHS.It found that many Britons are acting before being told to by the government.One in 10 (10 per cent) said they have already cancelled their plans for Christmas Day and a further quarter (25 per cent) say they have scaled them back because of concerns about Omicron.And it showed significant levels of appetite for far tougher restrictions than the government has so far imposed.Some 50 per cent of the 2,096 people questioned said they would back a two-week “circuit-breaker” lockdown of the type backed by prominent scientists, against just 26 per cent opposed. Opinion on a total stay-at-home lockdown of indefinite duration was split 38-38 per cent for and against.And 65 per cent said they would support vaccine passports – with no option to show evidence of a recent negative test – for entry to crowded venues, 70 per cent favour compulsory face-coverings in all indoor public spaces and 55 per cent mandatory working from home except for key workers.Some 55 per cent said they would back a ban on indoors gatherings of people from different households, with just 27 per cent opposed. But opinion was more evenly divided on schools, with 37 per supporting closure and 35 per cent saying they should stay open.The scale of damage done to the prime minister’s credibility on Covid by a series of revelations about lockdown-breaching parties and after-work drinks at Downing Street was laid brutally bare by the survey.In a week when darts and football fans were filmed singing scornful chants about the PM, some 40 per cent of those questioned by Savanta said they distrust Mr Johnson “a lot” as a source for guidance on how to respond to the Omicron variant, and 20 per cent distrust him “somewhat”.Just 9 per cent – fewer than one in 10 of those questioned – said they trusted the PM “a lot” and 21 per cent trusted him “somewhat”.Mr Johnson’s credibility score was worse than that for “people on your social media feed”, who were distrusted “a lot” by 21 per cent and “somewhat” by 24 per cent, but trusted “somewhat” by 23 per cent and “a lot” by 7 per cent.By comparison, 56 per cent said they trust chief medical officer Chris Whitty, against 25 per cent who distrust him. The figures for scientists generally were 71 per cent trust and 19 per cent distrust and for politicians generally 24 per cent trust and 64 per cent distrust.Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was trusted by 42 per cent and distrusted by 40 per cent – of whom 19 per cent distrusted him “a lot”.Most trusted for advice on Covid were friends and family (77 per cent trust and 12 per cent distrust).There were indications that a substantial proportion of Britons are uncertain what they should do.Despite 18 months of advice from scientists, medics and politicians, almost one in five (19 per cent) said they were less confident than in previous waves that they knew how best to protect themselves and their loved ones.Hospitality industry fears about the financial catastrophe facing pubs, restaurants and nightclubs, even without new restrictions, were borne out by the survey.Just 43 per cent of those questioned expect to go ahead with festive plans for New Year’s Eve, with 19 per cent scaling them back and 18 per cent dropping celebrations altogether.And one-third (33 per cent) said they had dialled down festivities and 14 per cent written them off altogether in the run-up to Christmas Day, a financially crucial period for venues hosting office parties and friends’ nights out, as well as theatres and shows. Just 42 per cent said they were partying as planned pre-Christmas.Chillingly, there was little sign that Britons see much light on the horizon, despite the successful rollout of three waves of vaccinations and boosters.Some 23 per cent said they expected disruption to their lives from Covid to be worse in 2022 than 2021 – 8 per cent significantly worse and 15 per cent slightly – and a further 46 per cent said they believed next year would be about the same as this year.Only 21 per cent were expecting a lower level of disruption in 2022, including just 5 per cent who think next year’s Covid situation will be significantly better than it has been this year.• Savanta questioned 2,096 adults in Britain from 17-19 December. More

Boris Johnson’s cabinet remains divided over whether the government should bring in further Covid restrictions after Christmas, a senior minister has suggested.Cabinet Office minister Steve Barclay admitted that the cabinet had a “full and robust” argument over whether fresh measures were necessary – as he pointed to the “very significant economic cost” curbs would have.It is understood that ministers are split between those wanting swift action to tackle the spread of the Omicron variant, and others, led by chancellor Rishi Sunak, who argued that new controls would inflict huge economic damage.Asked on LBC about reports that he was against restrictions, Mr Barclay did not deny he sided with Mr Sunak. “I think it’s right cabinet has a full and robust discussion,” he said. “I think that’s what people would expect.”The former Treasury minister added: “I think it’s right that we look at the balance between protecting lives and livelihoods. These are hugely significant decisions, in terms of the real-world economic consequences for people, in terms of the impact on their businesses, in terms of the impact on theatres and music venues.”Mr Johnson was accused of “dither” and stoking uncertainty after he delayed a decision on the introduction of new Covid restrictions in England following a cabinet session lasting almost three hours on Monday.Those thought to be in favour on fresh restrictions include health secretary Sajid Javid and levelling up secretary Michael Gove.But others – including Mr Sunak and Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg – are said to have argued that decisions causing billions of pounds-worth of economic damage should not be taken until the severity of illness caused by Omicron became clearer.Mr Johnson is reportedly deliberating over whether England should be place under restrictions resembling “step two” measures seen earlier this year – including restrictions on mixing between households indoors – for a period of between two weeks and one month after Christmas.Asked about the possibility of so-called “circuit breaker” restrictions after Christmas, Mr Barclay did not deny the government was considering curbs before New Year.“We’re still looking at the data,” he replied. “We don’t think the case is there for further restrictions at this stage. But as the prime minister set out last night, we reserve the possibility that further action will be needed.”The Cabinet Office minister said people should “continue with Christmas but do so in a cautious way”, adding: “We’re not saying people can’t meet at Christmas.”MPs at Westminster said they expected to be recalled next Tuesday or Wednesday to approve any curbs brought in ahead of New Year’s Eve, though some did not rule out an emergency sitting before Christmas.One backbencher told The Independent: “I think [Johnson]’s going for a compromise in cabinet which is do nothing before Christmas and then bring in restrictions after Christmas. The recall would probably for Tuesday and Wednesday next week – that’s my best guess. There will be a lot of frustration about it.”Labour said the prime minister was “too weak to stand up to his own backbenchers” following the rebellion of almost 100 Tory MPs against limited plan B restrictions last week.Labour Party chairwoman Anneliese Dodds said “infighting” and “jockeying” for the Conservative leadership has taken over from clear Covid decision-making.“Most of the read-outs from those meetings and the rumours that have spread since suggest that really this is about disagreement within a group of senior Conservatives … rather than actually soberly looking at the evidence both health and economic evidence and taking a decision,” she told Times Radio.Mr Barclay said the chancellor would talk later today about his discussions with the hospitality industry demanding more government support. “He was in calls with industry leaders last night and he will be saying more about this shortly,” the Cabinet Office minister told BBC Radio 4 on Tuesday. More