Markus Andrews

Boris Johnson has been warned that a leadership challenge is “on the cards” in the New Year after 99 Conservative MPs defied him over Plan B Covid restrictions in the largest rebellion of his premiership.The prime minister was forced to rely on the votes of Labour MPs to win Commons approval for the introduction of Covid passes at nightclubs and sports and entertainment venues, which comes into effect in England on Wednesday.Sir Keir Starmer said the vote was a “very significant blow to the already damaged authority of the prime minister”, showing he was “too weak to discharge the basic functions of government”. Asked whether he would call on Johnson to resign, Starmer said: “The prime minister needs to take a long, hard look at himself and ask himself whether he has the authority to take this country through the pandemic. This is a very significant blow for him.”A senior member of the influential Tory backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, said that a leadership challenge in the New Year was “on the cards” unless the prime minister unites the party by delivering a “major change in the way he does things”.And Former chief whip Mark Harper called on Mr Johnson to listen to the “clear message” sent by Conservative MPs who have lost trust in his leadership and want a change of approach.Tory discontent with the PM’s performance will be whipped up further if the party fails to retain its stronghold seat of North Shropshire in a by-election on Thursday in which Liberal Democrats believe they are “on the knife-edge” of a historic victory.The prime minister  and health secretary Sajid Javid pulled out all the stops in a failed bid to limit the size of the backbench revolt, with Mr Johnson speaking personally to MPs and addressing a meeting of the 1922 Committee in the minutes before the crucial vote.In a sombre speech, Mr Johnson told Tory backbenchers that he wanted the country to be “as free as we can possibly be” but had “absolutely no choice” but to introduce new restrictions in the face of scientific advice that omicron will become the dominant strain of Covid in the UK within days.The PM promised to give MPs a say if he had to impose further and tougher measures, and indicated that he could recall parliament if rising case numbers forced him to act during the House of Commons’ Christmas break.And chief medical officer Chris Whitty gave MPs a chilling briefing, warning of a “significant increase” in omicron patients entering hospital over the Christmas period due to the extreme transmissibility of the variant, which is already believed to be infecting 200,000 people a day.But few would-be rebels appear to have been won over by the PM’s pleas, with Mr Harper saying that the rebellion was far larger than had been expected.A series of recent issues, from the botched attempt to save Owen Paterson from punishment for sleaze to the row over the Downing Street Christmas party, had been “very damaging” for the PM, said the former chief whip, who challenged Mr Johnson for the leadership in 2019.“Conservative MPs have sent the prime minister a message,” said Mr Harper. “The right thing to do is for the prime minister to listen, to do things differently and better.”He warned that parliament must be recalled if any further measures were being considered. Sir Geoffrey warned that disunity would put the Tories at risk of losing the next election, adding: “The prime minister has got to now be in some danger, and he has got to realise that. If he realises he has got it wrong and comes back in the New Year and does things in a different way and consults the party more, then we have a good chance of uniting.“But if that doesn’t happen, then we are in trouble.”And 1922 vice-chair Sir Charles Walker said Mr Johnson must respond to the “cry of pain” from his party, warning: “This is a very, very specific line being drawn in the sand now and I think the prime minister and his team need to listen.”Some 38 Tories rebelled against the PM over the move to mandatory face-masks in indoor public venues including pubs, restaurants, theatres and places of worship, which passed the Commons by 441-41.But 97 voted against Covid passes – with another two acting as tellers for the No vote – as proposals to require proof of double-vaccination or a recent negative test for access to mass-audience venues like sports stadiums and music concerts passed by 369-126.Some 61 Tories rebelled over the introduction of mandatory vaccines for NHS staff as the measure passed by 385-100, with 22 Labour MPs also breaking their party’s whip on a move which is deeply unpopular with unions.Among Conservative rebels were a large group of Red Wall MPs who won northern and Midlands seats from Labour under Johnson’s leadership in 2019, including Brendan Clarke-Smith (Bassetlaw), Dehenna Davison (Bishop Auckland), James Grundy (Leigh), Mark Jenkinson (Workington), Mark Logan (Bolton North East), Robbie Moore (Keighley), Holly Mumby-Croft (Scunthorpe) and Christian Wakeford (Bury South).Also opposing the government was parliament’s newest MP, Louie French, less than two weeks after winning the Old Bexley and Sidcup seat in a by-election which saw the Tory vote share shrink.Mr Johnson was accused of “going into panic and emergency mode” by lockdown-sceptic Tories who insisted that passes and mandatory mask-wearing were a disproportionate response to a variant which has so far been linked to only 10 hospitalisations and one death in the UK.Ex-minister Sir Desmond Swayne said that the hospitality industry had become “collateral damage” in the effort to stop the spread of omicron.He said the government had created a “ministry of fear” in the shape of the UK Health Security Agency, whose name he said must have been dreamt up by “Stalinist minds” to increase public compliance with restrictions.“Get them out there twisting the fear button and by and large you will get the reaction you want – people will crave more enforcement and more fearsome measures to protect them from this great danger that is out there,” said Swayne.The government had “abandoned… any principle of social democracy, of liberal democracy, absolutely beyond anything we’ve endured in recent living memory”, he said.Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen said: “The most dangerous epidemic sweeping the world and sweeping our country is an epidemic of fear. It has seriously damaged mental health and in particularly damaged the mental health of our young people, it must end.” More

Dominic Raab’s plan to overhaul the Human Rights Act is “authoritarian” and will weaken protections for ordinary citizens, MPs have warned.The justice secretary has opened a public consultation to replace the law with a new “bill of rights”, which aims to stop foreign offenders asserting their rights to a family life to stop deportations.The proposals go far beyond an official review commissioned by the Conservative government, which made several recommendations but concluded that “the Human Rights Act works well and has benefited many”.It did not call for the law to be scrapped, and found there was an “overwhelming body of support for retaining” it.But Mr Raab told the House of Commons that his proposals would uphold the European Convention of Human Rights and “prevent misuse and distortion”.“We will replace section three of the Human Rights Act so that our courts are confined to judicial interpretation and are no longer – effectively, in practice – licensed by the act to amend or dilute the will of parliament expressed through statute,” he added.Steve Reed, Labour’s shadow justice secretary, called the announcement a “dead cat distraction tactic by a government who do not know how to fix the criminal justice system that they have broken”.“It is clearly not the Human Rights Act that is preventing foreign criminals from being deported; it is this incompetent Conservative government,” he added.“These proposals do nothing to deal with the severe failings in the criminal justice system, they repatriate no powers that are not already based here.”Labour MP Clive Lewis called the proposals “authoritarian”, as controversial bills that would criminalise protesters and asylum seekers go through parliament.“Today’s statement does nothing to strengthen human rights and everything to weaken them,” he said. “The Conservative Party is not a party of freedom, but one of growing authoritarianism.”Fellow Labour MP Barry Sheerman questioned where the drive for the changes was coming from, adding: “I cannot find it supported in the academic community, the legal community or the business community, and it is increasingly clear that it comes from the increasingly strident right wing of the Conservative Party.”Dominic Raab told to ‘eat his words’ for calling feminists ‘obnoxious bigots’Mr Raab said calls for reform “have come from our voters – the public”, but did not provide details.Labour MP Andy Slaughter said the government had “picked on easy targets” by focusing on foreign national offenders, but the law would “mainly disadvantage ordinary citizens of this country who are victims of unlawful decisions by the state”.Harriet Harman, chair of parliament’s Joint Committee on Human Rights, said previous Conservative pledges to overhaul the Human Rights Act had “ended up amounting to nothing”. “We shall see whether he is able to turn his concerns into anything of substance,” she told MPs.The government consultation claims that law-making powers have “shifted away from parliament towards the courts” and that “human rights inflation” has taken place.It proposes changing the law so that “certain categories of individual” are not able to assert their rights to a family life to stop deportations, and that remedies for abuses will be affected by the “claimant’s conduct”.Mr Raab said the change would “prevent serious criminals from relying on Article 8 and the right to family life to frustrate their deportation” in parliament, giving one example of a case dating back to 2008.The government also wants to make people bringing claims under human rights law apply for permission from courts first, meaning that they must have suffered “significant disadvantage” or demonstrate an “overriding public importance”.The consultation is asking for views on how to limit interference with the freedom of expression and formally recognise the right to trial by jury.Legal experts questioned the reasons for the proposals, and how they would be implemented.Barrister Schona Jolly QC said there was a “lack of evidence” to support the plans and that they could result in the UK losing more cases at the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.“Arguments for asserting democratic control are heavily tainted by the government’s approach to repressive and regressive bills, and consistent attempts to bypass scrutiny and accountability in parliament,” she wrote on Twitter.Human rights barrister Adam Wagner questioned how the proposals to restrict foreign offenders’ rights in deportation appeals could be lawful, writing: “Any statutory provision which takes away the rights of certain classes of individuals altogether would not survive a European Court of Human Rights challenge.”The Independent Human Rights Act Review, which was commissioned by the justice secretary’s predecessor Robert Buckland last year, did not call for the major changes announced.Chair Sir Peter Gross, a former Court of Appeal judge, said its recommendations aimed to improve how the Human Rights Act operates, rather than scrap or replace it. “It is our view that the Human Rights Act works well and has benefited many,” he added.The review made several recommendations, aiming to put UK law centre-stage and increase parliamentary scrutiny of court rulings, but said there was an “overwhelming body of support for retaining” the act.“Detailed arguments in favour of repeal and replacement of the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights were not provided,” added a document published on Tuesday.Critics have said the review was politically motivated, following the government’s loss of numerous judicial reviews and immigration cases on human rights grounds.In July, a separate parliamentary inquiry concluded that there was “absolutely no justification” for the government to change the Human Rights Act.The Joint Committee on Human Rights said the existing law respected parliament and empowered British courts to enforce rights, rather than having to send cases to Strasbourg. 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Boris Johnson’s Covid plan B measures for England have been approved by the Commons, despite almost 100 Conservative MPs rebelling in a major blow to the prime minister’s authority.The introduction of Covid passes for crowded venues — the most contentious element of the plan among Tory backbenchers — was passed by 369 by 126 votes, with Mr Johnson forced to rely on Labour votes to get the measure through Parliament.Despite an eleventh-hour attempt by the prime minister to win over potential rebels in an address to the 1922 committee of Tory MPs, 97 voted against the proposals, marking the biggest revolt of his premiership and far greater than the previous record of 55 MPs who voted against proposals to strengthen tier restrictions in December 2020.The approved changes mean that from Wednesday people will have to demonstrate proof of either two Covid-19 jabs or a negative test to gain entry into nightclubs and settings where large crowds gather, including unseated indoor events with more than 500 people.In a second vote, MPs also retrospectively approved the extension of mandatory face coverings for most indoor venues, including cinemas and theatres by 441 to 41 votes.A change to self isolation rules — dropping the requirement to self-isolate and instead do daily Covid tests for those fully vaccinated people who are contacts of a positive case — was also passed by the Commons without a vote.Minutes after the vote, a senior member of the influential 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, also said that a leadership challenge in the New Year was “on the cards” unless the prime minister unites the party by delivering a “major change in the way he does things”.He said he was “very surprised” by the size of the rebellion, adding it “shows quite a major division within the party”.“I think now the Prime Minister’s really got to think very carefully about how he’s going to reset his performance, to actually govern with a united party because we will know what happens to disunited parties.”He added: “He’s got to realise that he’s got to consult his party properly before bringing these sorts of measures to the Commons.”Asked whether there was now the prospect of a leadership challenge in the new year if the PM did not change his approach, Sir Geoffrey said: “I think that’s got to be on the cards. He’s got to realise that he’s got to change.”Speaking to broadcasters, he said it showed he was “too weak to discharge the basic functions of government” and said the measures would not have gone through without Labour.Asked whether he would call on Boris Johnson to resign, Sir Keir said: “The Prime Minister needs to take a long, hard look at himself and ask himself whether he has the authority to take this country through the pandemic. This is a very significant blow for him.”He added: “I think it’s very important to understand how deep the breach of trust is between the prime minister and his own party.”The vote to approve the mandatory use of Covid passes in England was also branded “disappointing” by the chief executive of of the Night Time Industries Association.Michael Kill said: “It is very disappointing that, after flip flopping on the issue twice, the Government have decided to press ahead with the plans despite no evidence of their impact on transmission of the virus.“This is a slippery path we are going down. I would urge the government to listen to its backbenchers now – this far and no further.”He said the latest restrictions “will jeopardise the survival of businesses in 2022” and called for “urgent additional support now”.He added: “And it goes without saying that if more measures are increased we need a proportionate support package including a return of the furlough scheme.” More

They have had to fight a by-election while repeatedly defending – or at least attempting to mitigate – a prime minister mired in questions of sleaze, rule-breaking and incompetence.Now Tory activists in North Shropshire are increasingly fearful of two more factors above and beyond Boris Johnson’s conduct that may contribute to the party losing this traditionally safe seat on Thursday: omicron and the weather.Local blues are worried that growing concerns about the spread of the Covid-19 variant, along with forecasts of appalling rain, could lead to a historically low turnout.And they reckon that fewer people voting would disproportionately hurt their candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst – and help the Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan, secure an astonishing victory here.Roy Aldcroft, the Conservative mayor of Market Drayton and a ward member of the Tory-led Shropshire council, said: “The polling stations will be Covid-secure and I would encourage everyone to exercise their right to vote for the best candidate.“But there are certainly people saying they will probably stay at home because they are disillusioned with politics and with the prime minister. You couple that with omicron and winter weather and it gives people those extra reasons to not make the effort.”That, he reckons, would hurt the Tories more because they are the biggest party here, with more to lose.By rights, the by-election – called after the previous Tory MP, Owen Paterson, resigned amid a lobbying scandal – should have been a blue stroll. The party has a near-23,000 majority and has held the area for pretty much 200 years.Yet, while local activists remain confident of victory, they say the job has been made intractably more difficult by a series of scandals and missteps in Downing Street – most notably the prime minister’s apparent attempts to cover up a potentially illegal staff Christmas party.Now the suggestion that omicron might result in a reduced voter count has left Tories nervously considering the numbers.“By rights, we should have enough support to get over the line,” one activist told The Independent. “The problem is it’s our natural voters who are the ones telling us they might stay away, [while] the opposition vote is energised precisely because they think they can win.”Lib Dem campaigners, however, said they did not agree with the analysis. Because the current majority is so big, traditional Tory voters staying away would do their party no good, they say.“If people want to send this government a message, we actively need them to come out and switch,” a source said. “It’s a mountain we’re climbing and we can do it – but that does require a good turnout.”The yellow-rosette party is now favourite to win the contest with every major bookie, as reported by The Independent on Friday. More

The last phase of the UK government’s current “Plan B” social restrictions for England to tackle the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus is due to come into effect on Wednesday when vaccine passports are introduced.Following the return of mandatory mask-wearing in shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship and on public transport and orders to work from home, members of the public will, from 15 December, be required to produce an NHS Covid Pass in exchange for entry to crowded venues.The passport, presenting proof of your vaccination status and/or proof of a negative test result, will be required in unseated indoor venues with more than 500 people in attendance and in unseated outdoor spaces with more than 4,000 people present – and in any venue with more than 10,000 such as sports stadia.It may also be required as a condition of foreign travel.“The NHS Covid pass can still be obtained with two doses but we will keep this under review as the boosters roll out,” the prime minister, Boris Johnson, said when he announced the further tightening of restrictions on 8 December.“And having taken clinical advice since the emergence of omicron, a negative lateral flow test will also be sufficient.“As we set out in Plan B, we will give businesses a week’s notice, so this will come into force in a week’s time, helping to keep these events and venues open at full capacity while giving everyone who attends them confidence that those around them have done the responsible thing to minimise risk to others.”The vaccine passport is by no means popular with all of Mr Johnson’s fellow Conservatives, some of whom consider them an infringement of civil liberties, a stance Tory MP Marcus Fysh took to extreme lengths this week when he compared their introduction to Nazi Germany.A backbench rebellion is expected when MPs vote on the Plan B restrictions in the House of Commons on Tuesday, also in part a protest against the prime minister’s increasingly frazzled and scandal-ridden leadership.The Liberal Democrats have likewise raised objections to the passes, accusing the government earlier this year of introducing ID cards “by stealth” when the app was updated and have since labelled them “illiberal and destructive”, warning they “represent a massive change in the relationship between everyday people and their government”.However, given that Sir Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party has signalled it will support the government’s position in the national interest, any such mutiny is not expected to hinder the measures’ adoption.To access your digital NHS Covid Pass, you need to have the free NHS app downloaded to your smartphone – and to be registered with a GP in England to be able to access it.By simply signing into the app, you will be able to show proof of your Covid-19 vaccination or negative test status upon request, the information presented along with a QR code for scanning.The code proving your vaccination is valid for 30 days from the moment you access it or download it as a PDF, after which you will need to refresh to obtain a new version.A Covid Pass secured via a negative test result will meanwhile only last for 48 hours before a new version is needed (obtained via the same simple means).If you are unable to use the app for any reason, you can also view your vaccination status on the NHS website or print a paper version at home before heading to your destination.Those unable to access online services can also call 119 to request a letter to serve as evidence of their vaccination status instead.Those unable to get vaccinated or tested for medical reasons can apply to the NHS for an exemption to stand in its place.You can find more information on the government’s website. More

Few Britons will remember Christmas 2020 with much fondness, recalling a moment of bitter last-minute disappointment, frustration and loneliness, the perfect coda to a year to forget and a prelude to the even bleaker January and February months to follow.The festive plans of millions of people were thwarted, leaving them unable to reunite in person with family and friends in a season ordinarily devoted to togetherness and now once more consigned to Zoom.What made it all the sadder was seeing the brief glimmer of optimism with which December had begun so cruelly snuffed out.The UK had just completed a four-week circuit-breaker lockdown in November in the hope of stemming rising case numbers and securing a festive season without strict social restrictions in place when, on 8 December, Coventry grandmother Margaret Keenan, 91, became the first person in the world to receive a vaccine jab.A genuinely historic moment and a turning point in the fightback against Covid-19, the arrival of the vaccines was supposed to herald the beginning of the end for a plague that had blighted the year and wrought havoc across the world.But a new mutation of the coronavirus discovered in Kent in November and subsequently named the alpha variant by the World Health Organisation had given fresh cause for alarm, proving to be 70 per cent more transmissible than the original variant.Its spread cast a shadow over the promise of the vaccines to liberate the public from lockdowns but the prime minister, Boris Johnson, seemed reluctant to acknowledge the reality of the situation, insisting it would be “inhuman and against the instincts of many people in this country” to “ban” Christmas as he alleged Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer would like to do, having already levelled the same charge against his opposite number in October.Finally, scientists on the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NervTag) advised him during a meeting with ministers on Friday 18 December that action had become unavoidable.After securing Cabinet sign-off the following morning – on a day in which the UK recorded 27,052 new Covid cases and a further 534 deaths, taking the national death toll since March to 67,075 – Mr Johnson took to his lectern in 10 Downing Street to address the nation.He announced with a “very heavy heart” that he was cutting short the government’s planned five-day restrictions amnesty over the Christmas period allowing households to mix and would be introducing tough new “tier 4” rules for huge swathes of the country, particularly the south east.“As prime minister, it’s my duty to take difficult decisions, to do what is right to protect the people of this country,” his speech began.“Given the early evidence we have on this new variant of the virus and the potential risk it poses, it is with a very heavy heart I must tell you we cannot continue with Christmas as planned.“In England, those living in tier 4 areas should not mix with anyone outside their own household at Christmas, though support bubbles will remain in place, for those at particular risk of loneliness or isolation.”The tier 4 ban on households mixing would cover the whole of inner and outer London, as well as the counties of Kent, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and Surrey, excluding Waverley.Peterborough, Portsmouth, Gosport, Havant, Rother and Hastings, as well as the whole of Essex except for Colchester, Uttlesford and Tendring, would also be sent into tier 4 and subjected to the Christmas bubble ban.The prime minister continued: “Across the rest of the country, the Christmas rules allowing up to three households to meet will now be limited to Christmas Day only, rather than the five days as previously set out.“I know how much emotion people invest in this time of year, and how important it is, for instance, for grandparents to see their grandchildren and for families to be together.“So I know how disappointing this will be. But we have said throughout this pandemic that we must and we will be guided by the science. When the science changes, we must change our response.“And when the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of defence.“And, as your prime minister, I sincerely believe there is no alternative open to me. Without action, the evidence suggests infections would soar, hospitals would become overwhelmed and many thousands more would lose their lives.”Asked what message he would send to people who have made plans and spent money to prepare for Christmas, Mr Johnson said: “Of course, we bitterly regret that this is necessary this year. I know how much love and caring thought goes into preparations for Christmas.“I suppose the message is that this is the year to lift a glass to those who aren’t there in the knowledge that it’s precisely because they aren’t there to celebrate Christmas with you this year that we will have a better chance that they’ll be there next year to celebrate Christmas with you.”Speaking for many in response to the announcement was London mayor Sadiq Khan, who expressed his sorrow and sympathy for citizens of the capital and said the city “faces its toughest Christmas since the war”, attacking Mr Johnson for mishandling the pandemic, sowing “chaos and confusion” and making “irresponsible promises” that had raised expectations only to dash them.“There is nothing wrong with the prime minister wanting to save jobs and wanting families to see each other,” The Independent’s editorial read that day. “But this is a matter of character and of judgement, and Mr Johnson has repeatedly been found wanting.”Twelve months later, here we are again.Another new variant – omicron, originating again in late November, this time in southern Africa – is spreading across the country, perhaps at a rate of 200,000 infections per day, as the UK Health Security Agency has indicated.Despite the triumphant rollout of the vaccines over the course of the calendar year, which has seen some 89 per cent of UK adults receive a first jab, 81 per cent receive a second and 41 per cent (and counting) a third booster shot, new restrictions have again had to be introduced and severer ones could be just around the corner.After declaring an end to social distancing and mask-wearing on 19 July, an occasion he unwisely branded “Freedom Day”, Mr Johnson was forced to return to the podium on Saturday 27 November to announce the implementation of “Plan B” measures, reviving mask-wearing in shops and on public transport, adding more countries to the UK travel “red list” and the eventual expansion of the booster vaccine rollout to all adults.While the true extent of the omicron variant was not known at that point – and much still remains uncertain given the present scarcity of data – the PM was forced to further tighten the rules on Wednesday 8 December.Taking a brief respite from firefighting Tory scandals over second jobs, the refurbishment of his flat and office Christmas parties his team are alleged to have held the previous December – just days before he cancelled the Christmas plans of voters – Mr Johnson extended the mask remit to cinemas, theatres and places of worship, asked people to work from home where possible and made NHS Covid passes mandatory for entry to crowded venues.Cases now are double what they were a year ago – 54,661 were recorded on Monday 13 December alone – but deaths and hospitalisations are much lower thanks to the vaccines.However, the highly transmissible omicron variant could soon cause those numbers to rise too, particularly if it does prove to be significantly vaccine-resistant, as feared.Should the UK indeed see a “tidal wave” of omicron infections, as Mr Johnson has warned, the NHS could once more be overwhelmed, a development that would have grave consequences indeed.Speaking on Monday during a visit to a vaccination clinic in west London, Mr Johnson announced the first death from omicron and said: “I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that’s something we need to set on one side and just recognise the sheer pace at which it accelerates through the population.”He continued: “Throughout the pandemic I’ve been at great pains to stress to the public that we have to watch where the pandemic is going and we take whatever steps are necessary to protect public health.“We think the steps that we are taking – so Plan B, combined with a hugely ambitious acceleration of the booster campaign, bringing it forward by a month… We think that’s the right approach.”He declined, however, to commit to not introducing further restrictions before Christmas, clearing the way for history to repeat itself. 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A Covid expert has poured scorn on government claims that omicron infections have reached 200,000 a day, branding the figure implausible.Ministers have failed to explain how the estimate – announced by health secretary Sajid Javid one day before a huge Tory revolt against the Plan B restrictions – was calculated.Now David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, has attacked the sudden use of the figure – suggesting the real daily tally was 45,000 new cases on Monday.“It’s bit naughty to give this number without having a justification behind it,” Prof Spiegelhalter said.“It’s not based on the published modelling that came out from UK Health Security Agency a few days ago.“If you put that through their model it comes to 45,000 infections yesterday – which is high, but does seem more plausible.”The professor of the public understanding of risk, and a regular commentator on pandemic modelling, added: “From what has been made public, I can’t see how you can derive this number.”The latest estimate is that omicron cases are doubling every 2-3 days – the reason why Plan B curbs are coming in – which implies 1.2 million new infections by Christmas Day.But Prof Spiegelhalter suggested a tailing off is inevitable, telling BBC Radio 4: “Whatever the line is, it’s got to curve over sometime – because we are not going to get up to these vast numbers of millions of people getting it every day.”After the shock of the 200,000 figure put out by Mr Javid, his officials were unable to explain how it had been calculated, other than to say it is based on “modelling”.Omicron is believed to make up around one-fifth of all Covid cases, but as many as 44 per cent in London, the UK hotspot for the new variant.It is expected to become the dominant strain in the capital by the end of Wednesday at the latest, Mr Javid told MPs on Monday.However, the government is struggling to persuade its own MPs to back curbs already introduced – let alone more severe measures many are calling for before Christmas.Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, warned the cabinet to expect a “significant increase” in hospitalisation, while hospital leaders warn parts of the NHS are already “beyond full stretch”.But around 70 Tory MPs have signalled they will vote against Covid passes for crowded venues – with less opposition against the extension of mask-wearing to cinemas and theatres.It is not the first time Prof Spiegelhalter has criticised the government’s use of Covid statistics as the pandemic is progressed.Last May, he attacked the announcement of “unreliable” daily test totals, as “number theatre”, when the public was crying out for “proper detail”. More

Bars and pubs with dancefloors will be required to check people’s Covid passes, but only after 1am, according to new regulations for England published by the government. The imminent introduction of Covid passes – predominately for large venues, including nightclubs – forms a key part of the government’s “plan B” measures that ministers hope will curb the spread of Covid and the new omicron variant.The measures will be voted on later on Tuesday in the Commons and are almost certain to come into force on Wednesday – despite the prospect of Boris Johnson facing the biggest revolt of his premiership.Dozens of Tory MPs have indicated they will either vote against or abstain on plans for a Covid pass, forcing the prime minister to rely on support from Sir Keir’s Starmer’s Labour in order to get the public health measures through the Commons.Under the plans people going to nightclubs and dance halls, alongside mass-audience events, will be required to show a Covid pass – displaying evidence of either two jabs or a recent negative test – as a condition of entry.However, the newly published regulations also make clear that other “late night dance venues” will also be required to use the pass.The government has defined these venues as anywhere that opens betweens 1am-5am, serves alcohol after 1am, has a dance floor or space for dancing, and provides music, whether live or recorded, for dancing.Using an example, the government’s website states: “A bar is open throughout the day and stays open later than 1am. It meets the criteria for mandatory use of the NHS Covid pass (because it provides music and a dance floor, serves alcohol and stays open later than 1am).“The manager is not required to check the Covid-19 status of anyone who leaves the venue before 1am but must take reasonable measures to ensure that everyone who remains in, or enters, the premises after 1am has the NHS Covid pass.”It adds that venues may either choose to check all visitors for the entire time of opening or check all visitors who remain in the venue immediately before 1am.Under the regulations, people who use fake Covid passes also face fines of £10,000 under a new criminal offence, which could also see businesses shut down by councils if they fail to comply with the rules or show they are carrying out suitable checks on customers attending events.The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Entry to Venues and Events) (England) Regulations 2021 make it an offence to make, adapt, supply or offer to supply “false evidence of Covid status to another person” which is known to be “false or misleading” as of 6am on Wednesday.Venues which do not comply with rules on carrying out checks or ignore improvement or closure notices issued by councils could be fined £1,000 in the first instance, reduced to £500 if paid within 14 days.This increases to £2,000 and £4,000 for second and third offences and jumping to £10,000 for fourth or any subsequent offences thereafter. More