Markus Andrews

The omicron variant could cause a new wave of the pandemic worse than that seen last winter without a new lockdown, modelling by top UK scientists advising the government has found.Scientists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) found that the variant could potentially cause higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than was seen in January 2021 if no action was taken – with as many as deaths 75,000 before April under the worst scenarioThe researchers, who sit on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) or the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), say there is still a “a lot of uncertainty” about omicron’s characteristics and that their research is yet to be peer-reviewed.But Dr Rosanna Barnard from LSHTM’s Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, who co-led the study, said: “In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home. “However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.”She added: “Nobody wants to endure another lockdown, but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services if omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta. It is crucial for decision makers to consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology.”The team of researchers estimated that omicron was evading vaccines “by a substantial degree”, and is likely to be anywhere between 10 per cent less transmissible or up to 35 more transmissible than than the existing Delta variant.Under the most pessimistic scenario in the study they estimate there could be anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months without any additional control measures. They say that omicron is expected to become the dominant variant in England before the end of this month.The scientists say they have taken into account additional protection afforded by booster doses but that the picture could be improved if “a very high uptake of booster vaccines is achieved”.The researchers’ findings agree with other studies that boosters, and the scale and speed of the booster programme, will have a “large impact” on the results.Dr Nick Davies from CMMID, who co-led the research, said: “These are early estimates, but they do suggest that overall omicron is outcompeting Delta rapidly by evading vaccines to a substantial degree. If current trends continue then omicron may represent half of UK cases by the end of December. “Further analysis suggests that the booster programme is vital, with a counterfactual scenario with no boosters showing a peak in hospitalisations that could be as much as five times as high as the scenario with boosters.”He told reporters that there was “pretty good evidence of exponential growth” of the variant in the data they analysed.Dr Davies also said the latest data showed “a very fast rate of increase” and painted a picture that was “quite concerning”.But he said that “the case for further control measures is really not for us to decide”.“We really need to leave that to the decision makers who will be weighing up a huge number of factors,” he said.Other countries in Europe such as Austria and the Netherlands have moved towards new lockdown or partial lockdown measures. The UK government has not floated the idea, however, and is instead reintroducing mask mandates and recommending people work from home.Reacting to the study’s findings, Liberal Democrat health spokesperson Daisy Cooper said the new modelling called on the government to take urgent action to prevent health services from being overwhelmed.“With both Ambulance and A&E services already stretched to breaking point, we cannot afford another huge surge in hospitalisations,” she said. “The Government must act quickly and set out its emergency plans to Parliament in the next 72 hours. It must urgently ramp up the booster programme, give frontline NHS staff the additional resources they need, guarantee financial protections for small businesses, particularly in hospitality, and ensure that everyone who needs it can access mental health support during these difficult times.”Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at University of East Anglia, said the LHSTM study was “well-designed and clearly presented”, but should be treated with caution because of the preliminary nature of the data.”I suspect these models overstate risk of hospitalisation and deaths and the ‘worst case’ scenarios are unlikely to be seen,” he said. “As better data becomes available in coming weeks we can expect these models to be refined.”Meanwhile Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health at the University of Southampton said that “as things stand right now, the numbers highlighted by the LSHTM modelling group are alarming”.Dr Head said it had been a mistake to lift all Covid restrictions before the vaccine rollout had been completed. He also blamed a global failure not to share enough vaccines with poorer countries.”We don’t know how often this coronavirus can change its clothes and emerge with a new look. Vaccinating the world is a huge demand, and we’ve seen that the world is not up to the task. That is a mistake – increasing equity in the global rollout is in everybody’s interests,” he said. “The coronavirus has not finished with us. A tactics of ‘turning the lights off and pretending we are not in’ is a failed policy.” More

Officials at Rishi Sunak’s Treasury have admitted holding “drinks” in their office while the country was in lockdown last year.Around two dozen civil servants broke out the booze at their desks on November 25, 2020 – the day of the autumn statement.The chancellor last week denied attending any drinks parties – though he declined to give an answer about what his advisors and officials had got up to.It comes after more than a week of anger over a bash at No.10 at the height of lockdown.The event’s Treasury counterpart took place when non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues were closed.Pubs, bars and restaurants has also been shuttered, and people were told to stay at home unless they could not work from home.It is not clear why the Treasury civil servants felt they their work could not be done remotely.A Treasury spokesperson claimed to the Independent that the department “has followed Government guidance throughout the pandemic”.They added: “We are not aware of any events in breach of Government regulations and the Treasury did not organise an in-person departmental party last Christmas.”But separately, regarding the incident in November, they confirmed to The Times: “In line with the guidance at the time, a number of staff came into the office to work on the Spending Review 2020.”We have been made aware that a small number of those staff had impromptu drinks around their desks after the event.” More

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has warned that Russia would face “severe consequences” if it invaded Ukraine.Ahead of a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Liverpool, Ms Truss said the UK would aim to damage the Russian economy if it made an incursion into Ukraine, as she prepared to lobby allies during weekend talks to become less dependent on Moscow for cheap gas.During the meeting as part of the UK’s year-long G7 presidency, the Cabinet minister will urge allies from the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan to present a united front against “malign” behaviour by Russia.US intelligence officials say Russia has stationed about 70,000 troops near its border with Ukraine and has begun planning for a possible invasion as soon as early next year.Joe Biden has spoken with Boris Johnson and the leaders of Germany, Italy and France – dubbed the Nato “quint” – twice this week as they deliberate on how to deal with the threat.Ms Truss, asked by broadcasters how likely an invasion was, repeated her assertion that it would be a “strategic mistake” for Moscow to send troops across the border, something she wants the G7 to “spell out” over the next two days.“What the G7 meeting this weekend that’s taking place is about a show of unity between like-minded major economies that we are going to absolutely be strong in our stance against aggression, against aggression with respect to Ukraine,” she said.“There will be severe consequences if anything were to happen, but also make sure that we’re building security and economic relationships with like-minded partners, including Ukraine, to protect them in the future.”Ms Truss sidestepped questions about whether there could be a British military response to an invasion, saying only that defence secretary Ben Wallace had been in Ukraine “very recently” as the UK helps to build Kiev’s defence and security capability.A deal struck last month will see UK warships and missiles sold to Kiev.The foreign secretary added that the UK was working with allies to “make sure there would be severe economic consequences” if Russia sent troops into Ukraine.She said Britain would also be pushing for an “alternative to Russian gas supplies” in a bid to establish stronger energy security.“There have been decisions made by the free world in the short term to obtain cheap energy or cheap financing, and that has a long-term cost for freedom and democracy,” the former trade secretary said. “And we can’t make that mistake again.”Over the course of the weekend, the foreign secretary will hold bilateral meetings with counterparts from the G7 countries and the EU, as well as guest countries, such as Australia and South Korea, joining the event at the Museum of Liverpool.On Sunday, she will host plenary sessions on global health security as well as regarding the Indo-Pacific region, with foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations joining the G7 meeting for the first time.It comes after the UK’s integrated review on foreign policy announced a “tilt” towards the Indo-Pacific, in a move seen as aiming to counter China’s growing influence in the region.With the UK on Friday recording the highest number of Covid-19 infections since January, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said overseas attendees in Liverpool would have to take a PCR test before being admitted to the event, with daily testing on site.The gathering will be the second in-person meeting of G7 foreign ministers this year, following a session in London in May, which was chaired by deputy prime minister Dominic Raab before his demotion from foreign secretary to Justice Secretary during the Cabinet reshuffle in September.On Wednesday, Mr Biden said sending US troops to Ukraine in response to a Russian military build-up was “not on the table”.But he warned Mr Putin that there could be “severe consequences” if Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. In such a scenario, US would also provide “defensive” capabilities to Ukraine, he told reporters.Additional reporting by PA More

Boris Johnson today refused to accept an offer of resignation from his communications director, reports suggest, despite claims he attended one of the potentially lockdown-breaking Christmas parties held in 10 Downing Street last year.Jack Doyle, then the PM’s press secretary, is alleged to have addressed up to 50 colleagues at the 18 December get-together and even handed out awards to them.A spokesman for the PM said earlier he was “not aware” if Mr Doyle had offered to quit following the allegations, and that he will continue in his post.However, the BBC reported it had been told by two separate sources that the aide did offer to resign and Mr Johnson turned it downAsked if the PM had full confidence in Mr Doyle, the spokesman replied simply: “Yes.”The government has launched a full investigation by cabinet secretary Simon Case into the 18 December party – which allegedly included Secret Santa, cheese, wine and festive games – as well as two other events: a leaving do on 27 November, which Mr Johnson is said to have attended, and a Department for Education (DfE) gathering on 10 December, all last year. Downing Street has refused to comment further on allegations against ministers and other government staff, other than to say the probe is underway to establish all the facts. Dominic Cummings, the PM’s former top aide, tweeted earlier to say Mr Doyle was a “gonner” (sic). He also claimed Mr Johnson “will be thinking” it is smarter to “keep” the so-called spin doctor around for when the findings of Mr Case’s inquiry come in.“Then [Mr Johnson will say], ‘I’m shocked, shocked I tell you to discover there was a party and I was misled’, [and] do a deal with Jack to keep all the wallpaper horror buried,” Mr Cummings said.He added in a later post: “Also there’s lots of pictures of the parties which will inevitably get out. And invite lists beyond No 10, to other departments…”Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called the PM “unfit for office” and said it was important to “get to the bottom” of what had happened, including whether Covid rules had been broken.Related video: Sobbing Allegra Stratton resigns over No 10 party videoHe also called Mr Doyle’s position into question. Speaking in Hadston, Northumberland, where he was meeting with families affected by Storm Arwen, Sir Keir said: “I think he’s got to look very carefully at his position.“If the information that’s coming out at the moment about attending the party is accurate, then it seems to be pretty obvious that he’s got to consider his position.”It comes after Allegra Stratton, the PM’s former spokesperson, was forced to resign on Wednesday after a leaked video from last year showed her and other colleagues making light of both an apparent Christmas party inside No 10 and the Covid regulations it breached. In the clip, first published by ITV News, Ms Stratton and her colleague Ed Oldfield can be seen practising answering a potential question from journalists about an event seemingly attended by them and others. Mr Johnson’s spokesman has since said the PM maintains full confidence in Mr Oldfield.Asked earlier if Downing Street is still considering throwing a Christmas party this year, the spokesman said there were “no plans” for such an event as the PM focuses on dealing with the omicron variant of Covid.A total of 58,194 new Covid cases were reported in the UK on Friday – the highest number since January. More

Boris Johnson has been warned by Conservative MPs that his leadership could be under serious threat if the party loses next week’s by-election in North Shropshire and worsening poll numbers do not improve.The prime minister is under mounting pressure over the No 10 Christmas party scandal and the refurbishment of his Downing Street flat, after ethics adviser Lord Geidt restarted his investigation into the funding of the redecorations.Tory MPs told The Independent that backbenchers normally supportive of Mr Johnson are now discussing whether or not he should lead the party into the next general election – and say Thursday’s contest in North Shropshire will be key.One senior Conservative MP told The Independent: “If we lost the by-election and Lord Geidt resigns then he would be in huge trouble. A by-election loss will damage the idea of him as an election winner. The public haven’t historically applied the same rules to him – but that is fading away.”The former cabinet minister added: “[Mr Johnson] may have nine lives – more than most politicians – but he is using up a lot of them. If he gets through Christmas and manages to reset in the New Year, he will still be far more fragile when the next crisis comes.”One red wall Tory MP told The Independent: “There is a change in mood. People who had been supportive are now discussing whether we still need him, and whether he’s done what he needed to do for us in terms of Brexit.”The backbencher added: “He might be able to get through the Christmas parties thing by sacking a few people. The flat stuff is bad, but maybe not fatal on its own. It’s a by-election defeat and bad poll numbers into next year that would really rattle everyone and put him under huge pressure.”The red wall MP said Mr Johnson’s opponents in the party could easily gather the 55 signatures required for the powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers to initiate a vote of no confidence – but they won’t move until they have dozens more MPs fully behind his removal.“I be surprised if a challenge happened quickly,” said the backbencher. “Support for him is ebbing away, but a lot of MPs haven’t really coalesced behind anyone else yet.”The Liberal Democrats are now favourites with every major bookmakers to win the 16 December North Shropshire by-election, sparked after ex-Tory MP Owen Paterson was found to have broken lobbying rules.Mr Johnson’s personal popularity has slumped to an all-time low of -42 as the public lose confidence in the scandal-hit Tory leader, according to a new YouGov poll. Some 66 per cent said they hold a negative opinion of him.And a Focaldata survey for Times Radio on Friday put Labour on 41 per cent – giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party an eight-point lead over the Tories, a day after a Survation poll put Labour six points ahead.In a further blow to his authority, Nusrat Ghani, the vice-chair of the 1922 backbench committee of Conservative MPs, refused to give Mr Johnson her backing and warned: “The mood in parliament is not good.”Describing the investigation by the cabinet secretary Simon Case into a series of alleged festive parties as “absolutely key” to Mr Johnson’s future, Ms Ghani told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Let’s see what the investigation draws out.”Mr Johnson also faces a large rebellion of Tory MPs when his plan B restrictions come before the Commons on Tuesday, after dozens of lockdown sceptics made clear their opposition to the introduction of Covid certification for nightclubs and large events. The new curbs are still expected to pass thanks to Labour support, however.Tory peer Gavin Barwell said his party’s MPs are “definitely” speaking about how to replace Mr Johnson as prime minister. “Boris, more than anyone, knows his position depends on being seen as an electoral asset,” Lord Barwell told Today. “If over time that goes, he really is in trouble.”Dominic Cummings, his former chief aide, claimed there were photos of the Christmas parties that will “inevitably get out” and predicted Mr Johnson would “be gone before the next election … probably summer”.He rubbished the idea that the prime minister could not have been aware of the parties, because the key one – on 18 December – is believed to have happened close to his own office. “To get upstairs, he has to walk past that area where he could see it,” Mr Cummings said in a question-and-answer session on his blog.Pressure over parties held at Downing Street in the run-up to last Christmas stepped up after it emerged that Mr Johnson’s top communications adviser Jack Doyle handed out awards at the gathering on 18 December.No 10 did not deny that Mr Doyle had offered his resignation, after it was reported that the prime minister had refused to accept his departure.To add to the prime minister’s troubles, it emerged on Friday that his ethics adviser Lord Geidt revived an investigation into the financing of his lavish flat refurbishment and was promised he will be given any information he demands.Lord Geidt contacted Downing Street after an Electoral Commission report appeared to show he “misled” the adviser’s own inquiry over when he knew about the financial arrangements.Asked about Mr Johnson’s troubles, former cabinet minister Robert Buckland told BBC’s Newscast: “If I was him looking in the mirror I’d be saying, ‘Surely I can do this better’.” More

The Liberal Democrats are now favourites with every single major bookie to win next week’s North Shropshire by-election.Momentum has swung firmly behind the party’s candidate, Helen Morgan, as the final weekend of campaigning approaches in what is traditionally an ultra-safe Conservative seat.Growing public outrage over a series of government scandals – most notably, the now infamous Downing Street Christmas Party – has seen Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill all slash their odds on Ms Morgan, a 46-year-old parish councillor, winning the seat off the Tories.She is now the favourite with all four of those, while Betfred and Betway have her and blue candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst as joint favourites.“What’s been in the news this last week, it has made life so difficult,” says Geoff Elner, a local Tory councillor in Shropshire who spent Friday morning campaigning with Dr Shastri-Hurst. “You are trying to distance yourself from events that happen 170 miles away, and it’s wrong. People here are working their butts off to try and do some good but it has not been easy.”Asked how damaging apparent lies told over last year’s alleged Christmas Party had been, the 66-year-old Elner replied: “Everyone of the parties twists the truth somewhere along the line and the Conservatives are certainly high on the list doing that right now.”If the bookies do have it right and the Lib Dems win, it would constitute one of the most stunning by-election results in history.The poll was sparked in November after the seat’s previous Tory MP Owen Paterson resigned following a lobbying scandal. Yet, given he won a near-23,000 majority in 2019, the Conservatives were still expected to romp home here.The area is rural, relatively prosperous and voted for Brexit in 2016. It has been a Tory strong hold for more or less 200 years.Yet the mood in the yellow camp is now one of growing confidence with leader Ed Davey briefly joined the campaign trail on Friday.“We’re feeling very positive,” a campaign source said. “We’ve been going into the real true blue towns the last couple of days and we’ve got former Conservatives switching in their droves while Labour supporters are backing us tactically.”But he added: “It’s still too close to call, though.”The Labour Party remain third favourites with most bookies. More

The UK and the EU will step up their efforts to resolved their post-Brexit row over the Northern Ireland Protocol before Christmas after negotiators failed to reach agreement once again.After another week in the laboured talks on solving the issues thrown up by the deal signed by Boris Johnson, Brexit minister Lord Frost said he and EU Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic had still not reached agreement.The UK chief negotiator said “intensive talks” would continue next week, and he and Mr Sefcovic will double how often they meet “in the hope of making worthwhile progress towards agreed solutions before Christmas”.Reports suggested that Lord Frost’s team had watered down its demand that the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) must be removed from arbitration over protocol issues.But in his statement on Friday, Lord Frost insisted there needed to be “movement on all the difficult issues created by the protocol” – including on the Court of Justice.After Friday’s meeting Mr Sefcovic claimed it was now “crunch time for medicines, with the EU Commission ready to amend EU legislation”. He has previously claimed that Brussels is ready to make unilateral changes to allow medicines to move more easily into Northern Ireland, without any agreement with the UK.Both sides are trying to reach an agreement that would reduce customs paperwork and the number of checks required on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and ensure a continued free flow of medicines across the Irish Sea.In a statement on social media after Friday’s online meeting with Sefcovic, Lord Frost said they had made “further limited progress on medicines but we have not reached agreement”.He added: “I underlined the need for movement on all the difficult issues created by the protocol, including customs, agri-food rules, subsidy policy, VAT/excise, and governance including the [European] Court of Justice. We will not find a durable solution that does not deal with all these problems.”Earlier this week Mr Johnson again told MPs the protocol must be changes and reiterated his threat to suspend elements of the accord by triggering the Article 16 mechanism – which could spark an ugly trade war – if an agreement cannot be found.Meanwhile, France again threatened to push for EU legal action against Britain if it does not show a “sign of goodwill” in the post-Brexit fishing row by a Friday deadline set by the EU.France’s European affairs minister, Clement Beaune, echoed earlier threats to ask the Commission to launch legal proceedings against the UK if it failed to grant more licences to French fishermen.But he also suggested the talks could be extended past the deadline as long as the UK shows goodwill. “We won’t get all the licences that we have a right to by tonight,” he told France Info radio on Friday.“If the British say today ‘We’ll give you … a few dozen extra licences as a gesture of good faith to show that the dialogue is bearing fruit and we’re interested in continuing,’ we’ll take that into account and make an evaluation with the European Commission and perhaps we’ll continue.”But if Britain refuses to budge on the roughly 100 outstanding licences, France will ask the commission at the weekend to announce the launch of legal proceedings, Mr Beaune added. More

The Conservative Party has a reputation for ruthlessly disposing of its leaders when they are no longer viewed as electoral assets.Even former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, considered one of the party’s greatest-ever leaders, was ousted in 1990 amid concerns over her politically toxic poll tax.Conversations about Tory succession – and who might lead the troops into the next battle – have been taking place long before recent scandals sent Boris Johnson’s approval ratings and poll lead tumbling.For the early part of Johnson’s tenure in No 10 Downing Street, it was perceived wisdom in Westminster that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would be next to ascend the Tory throne.But who else is in the running?Lizz Truss, who has undergone somewhat of an epiphany over Brexit, has recently seen her approval ratings soar, with a Conservative Home poll published last month ranking her top among cabinet ministers. The survey is viewed as a good barometer of grassroots support and is keenly watched by those in government.The free-market Conservative, who talks tough on “woke” Britain, was promoted to foreign secretary in the PM’s September reshuffle. The 3 November ConHome poll put Ms Truss’s approval rating at +85.6 – more than 10 points higher than second-placed de-facto Brexit minister, Lord Frost.Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the current international trade secretary, and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, also ranked in the top five of the survey but neither has been strongly linked to the Tory leadership role.Michael Gove, the new levelling up and housing secretary and Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary and current chair of the Commons health committee, are invariably linked with the top job. Although both are viewed in Tory circles as competent and capable of successfully overseeing a brief, they have had tilts at the leadership and failed.Mr Gove famously stabbed Johnson in the back during the 2016 contest — subsequently won by Theresa May — a move he later described as “political suicide.”What do punters think?”Following the calamitous week that Boris Johnson has had, we have seen plenty of action on the Betfair Exchange’s next prime minister market,” Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom tells The Independent.”Rishi Sunak is the 11/4 favourite take over at Number 10 after Johnson, while Liz Truss has been the biggest mover in the market. The foreign secretary has been backed in from 33/1 earlier in the year to 11/2 now.”Betfair says, over the past few days, the odds on Mr Johnson leaving his job by the end of 2021 have shortened from 149/1 to as low as 15/1. Mr Johnson leaving no 10 in 2022 is proving to be a popular choice too, the firm said, with the odds being slashed from 21/1 to 7/5 in the past seven days.Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson (latest odds, oddschecker.com)Rishi Sunak – 9/4Liz Truss – 7/2Michael Gove – 13/2Jeremy Hunt – 10Sajid Javid – 14Tom Tugendhat – 25Ben Wallace – 25Boris Johnson exit date2021 – 13/22022 or later – 1/252023 – 3/42024 or later – 15/8 More