Markus Andrews

The Tory candidate for the upcoming by-election in North Shropshire has responded to the Prime Minister getting his name wrong.In an interview with The Daily Mail, Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst, a former British Army medical officer and NHS consultant who now works as a barrister, said he “laughed it off”, explaining “I’ve had much worse”.Boris Johnson visited the constituency to encourage support for Dr Shastri-Hurst’s campaign, and misnamed him, calling him “Shastri-Hughes”.Mr Johnson said: “I think we’ve got a fantastic candidate, Dr Neil Shastri-Hughes, who I’ve just been seen contributing already to the life of the community by vaccinating people, he’s a doctor amongst his many other talents and what he’s also going to do is work very, very hard for the people of North Shropshire.“I used to live in this constituency, I used to come shopping in Oswestry, so I know it a bit.“And he’s got all the issues, he understands what needs to be done, to support the NHS to get investment into our hospitals here but also make sure we do things like, dualling the A5, looking at the Oswestry to Gobowen railway line, other projects like that, I think he’s a fantastic candidate.”During the visit, Mr Johnson later referred to the candidate as “Dr Neil” after watching him give vaccinations to members of the public at a pharmacy in Oswestry.The by-election was triggered to replace Owen Paterson after it was recommended by the Standards Committee that he should be suspended from Parliament after 30 days over an “egregious” breach of a ban on paid lobbying by MPs.Later, Mr Paterson announced his resignation as MP for the constituency after a botched attempt by the government to delay his suspension and overhaul the standards system.North Shropshire is generally considered to be an ultra-safe Tory seat, with Mr Paterson having won almost 63 per cent of the vote at the 2019 general election. But in the wake of a series of crisis in government, from the sleaze scandal to the Christmas party furore, bookmakers are now saying the Liberal Democrats are now favourite to win on Thursday. More

The first legal action against Priti Patel’s plans to force migrant boats back to France has been launched. Campaigners said they wanted judges to declare the operations unlawful and “force the government to recognise the sanctity of life”.A claim lodged at the Administrative Court by the Freedom from Torture group says there is “no legal basis” for the policy and that it would increase the risk of drownings in the English Channel.Documents seen by The Independent argue for a full judicial review of the plans, after the Home Office allegedly “refused to provide a substantive response to the grounds of the legal challenge”.The Home Office has previously refused to say whether any pushbacks have taken place, or to make public the details of the assessments behind ministers’ repeated assertions that the procedure is “safe and legal”.Sonya Sceats, the chief executive of Freedom from Torture, said: “This cruel pushback policy is Boris Johnson’s latest attempt to rip up the rule book that keeps all of us safe. We should not need to launch a legal challenge to force this government to recognise the sanctity of life.“We know from our work with torture survivors that people seeking safety usually have no choice but to travel without obtaining prior permission, whether it’s because they come from a country where they cannot apply for a passport or because the UK will not grant visas for people claiming asylum.”Tessa Gregory, a partner at Leigh Day, said there was “no basis in domestic law” for pushbacks.“The policy places the UK in breach of its obligations under the Refugee Convention and Human Rights Act,” she added. “In light of the risk to life arising from any use of the policy – and given that more than 25,000 people crossed the Channel to the UK so far this year – we have filed judicial review proceedings against the home secretary, which ask the court to declare the pushback policy unlawful.”Freedom from Torture alleges that pushbacks amount to the government authorising unlawful conduct by Border Force officers and contravene the 1951 Refugee Convention and the European Convention on Human Rights.Tragedy emphasises dangers of Channel crossings, says immigration ministerThe group says that existing enforcement powers, under the 1971 Immigration Act, do not allow boats to be forced out of British waters, and that there is no basis for pushbacks in domestic law.The legal challenge is one of several being mounted by charities and campaign groups.Care4Calais, Channel Rescue, and the PCS Union, which represents Border Force staff, have also announced action but not yet lodged claims in court.PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka said the policy was “unlawful, unworkable and above all morally reprehensible”.“Our Border Force members are aghast at the thought they will be forced to implement such a cruel and inhumane policy,” he added. “If the government does not abandon this appalling approach, we will pursue all legal avenues including a judicial review.”The legal challenge comes after a House of Lords committee wrote to the home secretary saying it was “not convinced” that the plans were safe or lawful.“We are not aware that the government have published any arguments to substantiate the claim that a legal basis currently exists,” said a letter published on Wednesday.The previous day, MPs voted against an amendment to the Nationality and Borders Bill that would have prevented the powers from being “used in a manner or in circumstances that could endanger life at sea”.The proposal, brought by the Joint Committee on Human Rights (JCHR) chair Harriet Harman, was defeated by 313 votes to 235, while a series of other amendments to strengthen protections around pushbacks did not go to a vote.In a report on the borders bill, the JCHR found that planning to push migrant boats back to France was unlawful and would put lives at risk.It said that the new laws, which would grant Border Force staff partial immunity from prosecution if migrants drowned during pushbacks, contained several unlawful clauses. It also raised questions over how effective the laws were likely to be.The committee said the proposals must be scrapped or changed, but the bill passed through the House of Commons with the most controversial provisions unchanged on Wednesday.The Independent understands that complex rules imposed by the Home Office to prevent the operations violating international law mean that pushbacks can only happen in a certain area of the Channel, and if numerous conditions are met.A Home Office spokesperson said: “As part of our ongoing operational response and to prevent further loss of life at sea, we continue to evaluate and test a range of safe and legal options to find ways of stopping small boats making this dangerous and unnecessary journey. These all comply and are delivered in accordance with both domestic and international law.” More

The omicron variant could cause a new wave of the pandemic worse than that seen last winter without a new lockdown, modelling by top UK scientists advising the government has found.Scientists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) found that the variant could potentially cause higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than was seen in January 2021 if no action was taken – with as many as deaths 75,000 before April under the worst scenarioThe researchers, who sit on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) or the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), say there is still a “a lot of uncertainty” about omicron’s characteristics and that their research is yet to be peer-reviewed.But Dr Rosanna Barnard from LSHTM’s Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, who co-led the study, said: “In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home. “However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.”She added: “Nobody wants to endure another lockdown, but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services if omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta. It is crucial for decision makers to consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology.”The team of researchers estimated that omicron was evading vaccines “by a substantial degree”, and is likely to be anywhere between 10 per cent less transmissible or up to 35 more transmissible than than the existing Delta variant.Under the most pessimistic scenario in the study they estimate there could be anywhere between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months without any additional control measures. They say that omicron is expected to become the dominant variant in England before the end of this month.The scientists say they have taken into account additional protection afforded by booster doses but that the picture could be improved if “a very high uptake of booster vaccines is achieved”.The researchers’ findings agree with other studies that boosters, and the scale and speed of the booster programme, will have a “large impact” on the results.Dr Nick Davies from CMMID, who co-led the research, said: “These are early estimates, but they do suggest that overall omicron is outcompeting Delta rapidly by evading vaccines to a substantial degree. If current trends continue then omicron may represent half of UK cases by the end of December. “Further analysis suggests that the booster programme is vital, with a counterfactual scenario with no boosters showing a peak in hospitalisations that could be as much as five times as high as the scenario with boosters.”He told reporters that there was “pretty good evidence of exponential growth” of the variant in the data they analysed.Dr Davies also said the latest data showed “a very fast rate of increase” and painted a picture that was “quite concerning”.But he said that “the case for further control measures is really not for us to decide”.“We really need to leave that to the decision makers who will be weighing up a huge number of factors,” he said.Other countries in Europe such as Austria and the Netherlands have moved towards new lockdown or partial lockdown measures. The UK government has not floated the idea, however, and is instead reintroducing mask mandates and recommending people work from home.Reacting to the study’s findings, Liberal Democrat health spokesperson Daisy Cooper said the new modelling called on the government to take urgent action to prevent health services from being overwhelmed.“With both Ambulance and A&E services already stretched to breaking point, we cannot afford another huge surge in hospitalisations,” she said. “The Government must act quickly and set out its emergency plans to Parliament in the next 72 hours. It must urgently ramp up the booster programme, give frontline NHS staff the additional resources they need, guarantee financial protections for small businesses, particularly in hospitality, and ensure that everyone who needs it can access mental health support during these difficult times.”Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at University of East Anglia, said the LHSTM study was “well-designed and clearly presented”, but should be treated with caution because of the preliminary nature of the data.”I suspect these models overstate risk of hospitalisation and deaths and the ‘worst case’ scenarios are unlikely to be seen,” he said. “As better data becomes available in coming weeks we can expect these models to be refined.”Meanwhile Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health at the University of Southampton said that “as things stand right now, the numbers highlighted by the LSHTM modelling group are alarming”.Dr Head said it had been a mistake to lift all Covid restrictions before the vaccine rollout had been completed. He also blamed a global failure not to share enough vaccines with poorer countries.”We don’t know how often this coronavirus can change its clothes and emerge with a new look. Vaccinating the world is a huge demand, and we’ve seen that the world is not up to the task. That is a mistake – increasing equity in the global rollout is in everybody’s interests,” he said. “The coronavirus has not finished with us. A tactics of ‘turning the lights off and pretending we are not in’ is a failed policy.” More

Officials at Rishi Sunak’s Treasury have admitted holding “drinks” in their office while the country was in lockdown last year.Around two dozen civil servants broke out the booze at their desks on November 25, 2020 – the day of the autumn statement.The chancellor last week denied attending any drinks parties – though he declined to give an answer about what his advisors and officials had got up to.It comes after more than a week of anger over a bash at No.10 at the height of lockdown.The event’s Treasury counterpart took place when non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues were closed.Pubs, bars and restaurants has also been shuttered, and people were told to stay at home unless they could not work from home.It is not clear why the Treasury civil servants felt they their work could not be done remotely.A Treasury spokesperson claimed to the Independent that the department “has followed Government guidance throughout the pandemic”.They added: “We are not aware of any events in breach of Government regulations and the Treasury did not organise an in-person departmental party last Christmas.”But separately, regarding the incident in November, they confirmed to The Times: “In line with the guidance at the time, a number of staff came into the office to work on the Spending Review 2020.”We have been made aware that a small number of those staff had impromptu drinks around their desks after the event.” More

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has warned that Russia would face “severe consequences” if it invaded Ukraine.Ahead of a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Liverpool, Ms Truss said the UK would aim to damage the Russian economy if it made an incursion into Ukraine, as she prepared to lobby allies during weekend talks to become less dependent on Moscow for cheap gas.During the meeting as part of the UK’s year-long G7 presidency, the Cabinet minister will urge allies from the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan to present a united front against “malign” behaviour by Russia.US intelligence officials say Russia has stationed about 70,000 troops near its border with Ukraine and has begun planning for a possible invasion as soon as early next year.Joe Biden has spoken with Boris Johnson and the leaders of Germany, Italy and France – dubbed the Nato “quint” – twice this week as they deliberate on how to deal with the threat.Ms Truss, asked by broadcasters how likely an invasion was, repeated her assertion that it would be a “strategic mistake” for Moscow to send troops across the border, something she wants the G7 to “spell out” over the next two days.“What the G7 meeting this weekend that’s taking place is about a show of unity between like-minded major economies that we are going to absolutely be strong in our stance against aggression, against aggression with respect to Ukraine,” she said.“There will be severe consequences if anything were to happen, but also make sure that we’re building security and economic relationships with like-minded partners, including Ukraine, to protect them in the future.”Ms Truss sidestepped questions about whether there could be a British military response to an invasion, saying only that defence secretary Ben Wallace had been in Ukraine “very recently” as the UK helps to build Kiev’s defence and security capability.A deal struck last month will see UK warships and missiles sold to Kiev.The foreign secretary added that the UK was working with allies to “make sure there would be severe economic consequences” if Russia sent troops into Ukraine.She said Britain would also be pushing for an “alternative to Russian gas supplies” in a bid to establish stronger energy security.“There have been decisions made by the free world in the short term to obtain cheap energy or cheap financing, and that has a long-term cost for freedom and democracy,” the former trade secretary said. “And we can’t make that mistake again.”Over the course of the weekend, the foreign secretary will hold bilateral meetings with counterparts from the G7 countries and the EU, as well as guest countries, such as Australia and South Korea, joining the event at the Museum of Liverpool.On Sunday, she will host plenary sessions on global health security as well as regarding the Indo-Pacific region, with foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations joining the G7 meeting for the first time.It comes after the UK’s integrated review on foreign policy announced a “tilt” towards the Indo-Pacific, in a move seen as aiming to counter China’s growing influence in the region.With the UK on Friday recording the highest number of Covid-19 infections since January, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said overseas attendees in Liverpool would have to take a PCR test before being admitted to the event, with daily testing on site.The gathering will be the second in-person meeting of G7 foreign ministers this year, following a session in London in May, which was chaired by deputy prime minister Dominic Raab before his demotion from foreign secretary to Justice Secretary during the Cabinet reshuffle in September.On Wednesday, Mr Biden said sending US troops to Ukraine in response to a Russian military build-up was “not on the table”.But he warned Mr Putin that there could be “severe consequences” if Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. In such a scenario, US would also provide “defensive” capabilities to Ukraine, he told reporters.Additional reporting by PA More

Boris Johnson today refused to accept an offer of resignation from his communications director, reports suggest, despite claims he attended one of the potentially lockdown-breaking Christmas parties held in 10 Downing Street last year.Jack Doyle, then the PM’s press secretary, is alleged to have addressed up to 50 colleagues at the 18 December get-together and even handed out awards to them.A spokesman for the PM said earlier he was “not aware” if Mr Doyle had offered to quit following the allegations, and that he will continue in his post.However, the BBC reported it had been told by two separate sources that the aide did offer to resign and Mr Johnson turned it downAsked if the PM had full confidence in Mr Doyle, the spokesman replied simply: “Yes.”The government has launched a full investigation by cabinet secretary Simon Case into the 18 December party – which allegedly included Secret Santa, cheese, wine and festive games – as well as two other events: a leaving do on 27 November, which Mr Johnson is said to have attended, and a Department for Education (DfE) gathering on 10 December, all last year. Downing Street has refused to comment further on allegations against ministers and other government staff, other than to say the probe is underway to establish all the facts. Dominic Cummings, the PM’s former top aide, tweeted earlier to say Mr Doyle was a “gonner” (sic). He also claimed Mr Johnson “will be thinking” it is smarter to “keep” the so-called spin doctor around for when the findings of Mr Case’s inquiry come in.“Then [Mr Johnson will say], ‘I’m shocked, shocked I tell you to discover there was a party and I was misled’, [and] do a deal with Jack to keep all the wallpaper horror buried,” Mr Cummings said.He added in a later post: “Also there’s lots of pictures of the parties which will inevitably get out. And invite lists beyond No 10, to other departments…”Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called the PM “unfit for office” and said it was important to “get to the bottom” of what had happened, including whether Covid rules had been broken.Related video: Sobbing Allegra Stratton resigns over No 10 party videoHe also called Mr Doyle’s position into question. Speaking in Hadston, Northumberland, where he was meeting with families affected by Storm Arwen, Sir Keir said: “I think he’s got to look very carefully at his position.“If the information that’s coming out at the moment about attending the party is accurate, then it seems to be pretty obvious that he’s got to consider his position.”It comes after Allegra Stratton, the PM’s former spokesperson, was forced to resign on Wednesday after a leaked video from last year showed her and other colleagues making light of both an apparent Christmas party inside No 10 and the Covid regulations it breached. In the clip, first published by ITV News, Ms Stratton and her colleague Ed Oldfield can be seen practising answering a potential question from journalists about an event seemingly attended by them and others. Mr Johnson’s spokesman has since said the PM maintains full confidence in Mr Oldfield.Asked earlier if Downing Street is still considering throwing a Christmas party this year, the spokesman said there were “no plans” for such an event as the PM focuses on dealing with the omicron variant of Covid.A total of 58,194 new Covid cases were reported in the UK on Friday – the highest number since January. More

Boris Johnson has been warned by Conservative MPs that his leadership could be under serious threat if the party loses next week’s by-election in North Shropshire and worsening poll numbers do not improve.The prime minister is under mounting pressure over the No 10 Christmas party scandal and the refurbishment of his Downing Street flat, after ethics adviser Lord Geidt restarted his investigation into the funding of the redecorations.Tory MPs told The Independent that backbenchers normally supportive of Mr Johnson are now discussing whether or not he should lead the party into the next general election – and say Thursday’s contest in North Shropshire will be key.One senior Conservative MP told The Independent: “If we lost the by-election and Lord Geidt resigns then he would be in huge trouble. A by-election loss will damage the idea of him as an election winner. The public haven’t historically applied the same rules to him – but that is fading away.”The former cabinet minister added: “[Mr Johnson] may have nine lives – more than most politicians – but he is using up a lot of them. If he gets through Christmas and manages to reset in the New Year, he will still be far more fragile when the next crisis comes.”One red wall Tory MP told The Independent: “There is a change in mood. People who had been supportive are now discussing whether we still need him, and whether he’s done what he needed to do for us in terms of Brexit.”The backbencher added: “He might be able to get through the Christmas parties thing by sacking a few people. The flat stuff is bad, but maybe not fatal on its own. It’s a by-election defeat and bad poll numbers into next year that would really rattle everyone and put him under huge pressure.”The red wall MP said Mr Johnson’s opponents in the party could easily gather the 55 signatures required for the powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers to initiate a vote of no confidence – but they won’t move until they have dozens more MPs fully behind his removal.“I be surprised if a challenge happened quickly,” said the backbencher. “Support for him is ebbing away, but a lot of MPs haven’t really coalesced behind anyone else yet.”The Liberal Democrats are now favourites with every major bookmakers to win the 16 December North Shropshire by-election, sparked after ex-Tory MP Owen Paterson was found to have broken lobbying rules.Mr Johnson’s personal popularity has slumped to an all-time low of -42 as the public lose confidence in the scandal-hit Tory leader, according to a new YouGov poll. Some 66 per cent said they hold a negative opinion of him.And a Focaldata survey for Times Radio on Friday put Labour on 41 per cent – giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party an eight-point lead over the Tories, a day after a Survation poll put Labour six points ahead.In a further blow to his authority, Nusrat Ghani, the vice-chair of the 1922 backbench committee of Conservative MPs, refused to give Mr Johnson her backing and warned: “The mood in parliament is not good.”Describing the investigation by the cabinet secretary Simon Case into a series of alleged festive parties as “absolutely key” to Mr Johnson’s future, Ms Ghani told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Let’s see what the investigation draws out.”Mr Johnson also faces a large rebellion of Tory MPs when his plan B restrictions come before the Commons on Tuesday, after dozens of lockdown sceptics made clear their opposition to the introduction of Covid certification for nightclubs and large events. The new curbs are still expected to pass thanks to Labour support, however.Tory peer Gavin Barwell said his party’s MPs are “definitely” speaking about how to replace Mr Johnson as prime minister. “Boris, more than anyone, knows his position depends on being seen as an electoral asset,” Lord Barwell told Today. “If over time that goes, he really is in trouble.”Dominic Cummings, his former chief aide, claimed there were photos of the Christmas parties that will “inevitably get out” and predicted Mr Johnson would “be gone before the next election … probably summer”.He rubbished the idea that the prime minister could not have been aware of the parties, because the key one – on 18 December – is believed to have happened close to his own office. “To get upstairs, he has to walk past that area where he could see it,” Mr Cummings said in a question-and-answer session on his blog.Pressure over parties held at Downing Street in the run-up to last Christmas stepped up after it emerged that Mr Johnson’s top communications adviser Jack Doyle handed out awards at the gathering on 18 December.No 10 did not deny that Mr Doyle had offered his resignation, after it was reported that the prime minister had refused to accept his departure.To add to the prime minister’s troubles, it emerged on Friday that his ethics adviser Lord Geidt revived an investigation into the financing of his lavish flat refurbishment and was promised he will be given any information he demands.Lord Geidt contacted Downing Street after an Electoral Commission report appeared to show he “misled” the adviser’s own inquiry over when he knew about the financial arrangements.Asked about Mr Johnson’s troubles, former cabinet minister Robert Buckland told BBC’s Newscast: “If I was him looking in the mirror I’d be saying, ‘Surely I can do this better’.” More

The Liberal Democrats are now favourites with every single major bookie to win next week’s North Shropshire by-election.Momentum has swung firmly behind the party’s candidate, Helen Morgan, as the final weekend of campaigning approaches in what is traditionally an ultra-safe Conservative seat.Growing public outrage over a series of government scandals – most notably, the now infamous Downing Street Christmas Party – has seen Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill all slash their odds on Ms Morgan, a 46-year-old parish councillor, winning the seat off the Tories.She is now the favourite with all four of those, while Betfred and Betway have her and blue candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst as joint favourites.“What’s been in the news this last week, it has made life so difficult,” says Geoff Elner, a local Tory councillor in Shropshire who spent Friday morning campaigning with Dr Shastri-Hurst. “You are trying to distance yourself from events that happen 170 miles away, and it’s wrong. People here are working their butts off to try and do some good but it has not been easy.”Asked how damaging apparent lies told over last year’s alleged Christmas Party had been, the 66-year-old Elner replied: “Everyone of the parties twists the truth somewhere along the line and the Conservatives are certainly high on the list doing that right now.”If the bookies do have it right and the Lib Dems win, it would constitute one of the most stunning by-election results in history.The poll was sparked in November after the seat’s previous Tory MP Owen Paterson resigned following a lobbying scandal. Yet, given he won a near-23,000 majority in 2019, the Conservatives were still expected to romp home here.The area is rural, relatively prosperous and voted for Brexit in 2016. It has been a Tory strong hold for more or less 200 years.Yet the mood in the yellow camp is now one of growing confidence with leader Ed Davey briefly joined the campaign trail on Friday.“We’re feeling very positive,” a campaign source said. “We’ve been going into the real true blue towns the last couple of days and we’ve got former Conservatives switching in their droves while Labour supporters are backing us tactically.”But he added: “It’s still too close to call, though.”The Labour Party remain third favourites with most bookies. More