Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA leading pollster has warned that defeat for the Tories in the general election next week is now unavoidable and the only question remaining is how much Rishi Sunak’s party loses by.The assessment by Techne UK’s chief executive Michela Morizzo – Italy’s equivalent of Professor Sir John Curtice – comes as her company’s tracker poll for The Independent shows that Labour goo into the final seven-day stretch with a 22 point lead over the Tories.Labour are on 41 per cent (down one) with the Tories languishing on 19 per cent for a third week in a row and Reform UK just two points behind still on 17 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent and Greens on 5 per cent meaning that the five main parties almost completely unchanged from last week.It means that the final onslaught unleashed by Rishi Sunak in the head-to-head debate on Wednesday attacking Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on tax and immigration had almost no impact,, the same as most of his tactics throughout a problematic campaign.Instead, the Tories continue to be dogged by their own self inflicted wounds particularly the gambling scandal and before that Mr Sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations early.Ms Morizzo now believes that there is nothing he can do to turn things around in such a small space of time.She told The Independent: “With less than one full week before the British electorate go to the general election ballot boxes our regular tracker poll of Westminster voting intentions confirms what we have known now for sometime. There continues to be no closing of any gap between Labour and Conservatives continuing at a 22 per cent Labour lead. “If this wasn’t bad enough though for the Conservatives the steady rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK throughout the campaign to its position now 17 percent points of national vote – a rise of four to five polling points across the last four weeks will further squeeze and damage the Conservatives already faltering chances. Rishi Sunak has been mentioned in barely 1% of the Conservatives’ online adverts (Phil Noble/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPresident Joe Biden has faced calls to stand down by the former UK ambassador to the US after a “historically bad performance” in his TV debate with Donald Trump.Mr Biden and former US president Trump went head to head for the first debate of the 2024 presidential election on Thursday night.The current president’s performance added to concerns about his age and mental fitness as he struggled with his lines, mumbled and, at times, appeared confused.During one particularly excruciating moment he lost his train of thought while discussing healthcare, before pausing, and saying, “We finally beat Medicare”. Mr Trump responded: “He did beat Medicare. Beat it to death.”At another point when Mr Biden trailed off while talking about immigration, Mr Trump responded: “I don’t know if he knows what he said, either.”Lord Kim Darroch, who served as British ambassador to the United States between January 2016 and December 2019, urged Mr Biden to stand down. He said on Radio 4’s Today programme: “Joe Biden should stand aside. This was a historically bad performance. He was inaudible, incoherent and lost his train of thought several times. “Some of his answers simply made no sense. The one “we have beaten Medicaid” will be repeated a thousand times between now and the election. He should stand down – it’s very hard to see him winning now.”Lord Darroch was forced to quit his stateside role in July 2019 – before Boris Johnson took the reins as Prime Minister – after frank diplomatic cables referring to Donald Trump were leaked.Lord Kim Darroch More

Revelations of “clearly racist” comments by Reform UK canvassers are a “test of leadership” for Nigel Farage, Sir Keir Starmer has said.The Labour leader told BBC Breakfast on Friday 28 June that he was “shocked” by what he heard in the Channel 4 News report.“I was shocked by what I heard in the report, clearly racist, and I think this is a test of leadership,” Sir Keir said.“It’s for a leader to change his or her party, to make sure the culture is right, and the standards are understood by everybody within the party.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain’s upcoming general election is widely expected to lead to a change of government for the first time in 14 years. Many analysts believe it will be one of the country’s most consequential elections since the end of World War II.Ahead of the July 4 vote, The Associated Press takes a look back at other landmark elections since the war.___The last time a U.K. national election took place in July was in 1945, when Winston Churchill’s Conservative Party suffered one of its biggest-ever defeats shortly after the Allies’ victory over Nazi Germany.That result may appear surprising to many in 2024, given the reverence with which Churchill is still viewed both in the U.K. and abroad.However, during the war years, Churchill had been governing in a coalition with other parties, notably Labour, whose leader Clement Attlee acted as his deputy and others held important portfolios. The war effort required a high degree of state-run planning, and egalitarian — even socialist — feelings flourished.The election on July 5, 1945 was the first to be contested for a decade because of WWII, and it showed how much Britain had changed since the Great Depression in the early 1930s.With Churchill still largely in wartime mode as Japan had yet to be defeated and lukewarm in his support of a wider social safety net, Labour fought the election on domestic issues, campaigning for housing for all, full employment and state intervention in the economy.The results of the election were announced three weeks later on July 26, after giving time for forces abroad to vote. Labour had won a landslide victory, securing 48% of the vote and its biggest ever majority in the House of Commons.Attlee’s government, which lasted until 1951, is one of the most transformative in the history of Britain and remains the standard by which all subsequent Labour administrations are judged. From the creation of the National Health Service in 1948 to the huge expansion of the welfare state and the nationalization of an array of industries, Attlee’s administration left its mark for decades to come. Many of its accomplishments remain in place. Despite its many problems, the NHS remains the most revered institution in British life. More

Nigel Farage has responded to a Channel 4 News undercover investigation within the Reform UK campaign that exposed examples of racist language.An undercover reporter recorded one canvasser calling for migrants crossing the English Channel to be used as “target practice” and another Reform UK activist using a racial slur to describe Rishi Sunak.In a separate video shared by Channel 4 News after the footage was shared, Mr Farage was asked if he would “apologise” to the prime minister.“It was horrible,” he responded.When pressed again, he added: “How much further can I go? Of course it is an apology, it was horrible.” More

Gillian Keegan appeared to suggest a Sky News presenter didn’t “understand economics” during an interview on Friday morning (28 June).The education secretary clashed with Matt Barbet over inflation and whether or not Liz Truss was to blame for the state of the economy in recent months.“There has been a massive jump in inflation under your watch,” Mr Barbet said.“Well, you can thank Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine for that,” Ms Keegan replied, before the presenter pointed out that a lot of people blame Ms Truss.There pair then went back and forth on “understanding economics” and the factors behind high energy prices and inflation. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer will reportedly delay the recognition of the Palestinian state if Labour forms the next government, over concerns it could jeopardise Britain’s relationship with the United States.The Labour leader has pledged to recognise Palestinian statehood and said it would be part of any Middle East peace accord with Israel.Sir Keir said: “That needs to be part of the process, it’s very important we have a viable Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel.”He is under pressure from the left of the party to follow through on the Labour manifesto promise, but members of his inner circle have concerns this could isolate him from major allies such as the US at the start of his premiership, The Times reports.A source close to Sir Keir told the newspaper that British recognition of Palestine was a “process” and would have the most impact if done in “coordination with allies”. They denied the US would influence the timing of an announcement.Last month the Labour leader downplayed suggestions the recognition of the Palestinian state by the British would happen anytime soon.“It has got to be at the right time in the process because we need a viable Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel,” he said. “We don’t have either of those at the moment, and therefore it has got to be at the point of the process where we could see both of those outcomes.”A number of countries, such as Ireland, Spain and Norway have moved to recognise Palestinian statehood, following the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas and the war in Gaza, which has claimed more than 37,000 lives.Sir Keir Starmer’s position on the conflict has previously caused unease among some in his party, with the leader facing criticism for not calling for an immediate ceasefire sooner.In November last year, a host of Sir Keir’s shadow ministers broke ranks to call for an immediate ceasefire, including Naz Shah, Paul Barker and Afzal Khan.A total of 10 shadow ministers and parliamentary aides rebelled, with some 56 Labour members defying a three-line whip and backing an amendment to the King’s Speech.The party faced setbacks in the local elections in some previously safe areas, particularly those with large Muslim populations. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Reform UK activist described prime minister Rishi Sunak as a “f****** p***” while campaigning for the party’s leader Nigel Farage.Party activist Andrew Parker was caught using the racial slur while canvassing in Clacton, Essex, where Mr Farage is standing as an MP in the general election.Mr Farage told Channel 4 News that he was “dismayed” and he and some other objectionable candidates “will no longer be with the campaign”.It comes after Reform UK dropped its candidate in Basingstoke, Hampshire, after it was revealed he was previously a member of the British National Party.Mr Parker, who was filmed as part of an undercover investigation by Channel 4 News, said: “I’ve always been a Tory voter. But what annoys me is that f****** p*** we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F****** useless”.Mr Farage said he was “dismayed” by the comments and claimed the activist had been removed from his party’s local campaign.Nigel Farage said he was ‘dismayed’ by the racist comments and the activist had been removed from his local campaign More