Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRosie Duffield has urged fellow Labour MPs to speak up about the defection of Natalie Elphicke, amid criticism of Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to accept the controversial former Tory. The outspoken Canterbury MP said “yet again” she was the only Labour MP willing to put her name to quotes about the decision, despite “so many of us feeling exactly the same”. “It would be great if colleagues also spoke up,” she said. Ms Duffield said on Wednesday that Labour MPs were “baffled” by her “really peculiar” move to swap sides. Many have complained about the move behind the scenes, with a shadow cabinet member telling The Independent it is a disgrace. Rosie Duffield has urged Labour colleagues to speak up about the defection of Tory MP Natalie Elphicke More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour has resistered its biggest poll lead since Liz Truss was prime minister, with the party now sitting 30 points ahead of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.A new YouGov survey suggests the Tories would hold on to just 13 seats in a general election, with Labour enjoying a 452-seat majority.The poll, carried out for The Times, showed Labour on 48 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent – just five points ahead of Reform UK among people who said they would vote and expressed a preference.It would mean the party’s support is lower than at any point since Mr Sunak became prime minister in October 2022, following Ms Truss’s disastrous 49-day administration.The polling comes as a senior Tory said the prime minister is ultimately to blame for the chaos engulfing the party.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Teesside last week following Lord Ben Houchen’s re-election as Tees Valley Mayor (PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe winner of the next general election will have to raise taxes to maintain the current provision for public services, according to new analysis by a leading think tank.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) added that there is “essentially no fiscal headroom for any further tax cuts” amid slow economic growth and easing inflation.The UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent in 2023 after pressure from higher interest rates and hikes by ratesetters at the Bank of England to slow rampant inflation.In its latest economic outlook report, NIESR said it forecasts GDP (gross domestic product) will have grown 0.4 per cent over the first quarter of 2024 and will rise 0.8 per cent for the year as a whole, compared with 2023.Nevertheless, it said this still represents an “anaemic UK GDP growth trend”.It comes a week after the UK’s economic growth prospects were downgraded for the next two years by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), adding that it is on track for the weakest growth of the G7 group of countries next year.Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at NIESR, said: “Despite the welcome fall in inflation, UK growth remains anaemic.“This will make it difficult for any incoming government to carry out the much-needed investment in infrastructure and the green transition, as well as increase spending on public services and defence, without either raising taxes or rewriting the fiscal rules.“This makes clear the need to reform the fiscal framework to enable the government to do what is needed for the economy in a fiscally sustainable way.”It is currently widely expected that the next UK general election will take place in the second half of 2024, with the Labour Party shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves saying earlier this week that they plan to fight the next election on the state of the economy.NIESR also said in the report that it predicts there will next be an interest rate cut, from the current level of 5.25 per cent, in August. It has factored in two cuts this year.The forecasts also indicated that average living standards are due to improve by around 6 per cent in 2024/25 compared with the previous year, but stressed this picture varies significantly between the income distribution.The poorest tenth of households will experience a 2 per cent decline in disposable income, while households in deciles four to nine will see a 7 per cent-8 per cent improvement.Adrian Pabst, NIESR deputy director for public policy, said: “While real wages are rising, households in the bottom half of the income distribution continue to feel the impact from the cost-of-living crisis, with housing costs wiping out the benefits from higher real wages.“Similarly, the freezing of the personal allowance and tax bands is making low and middle-income households worse off despite the cut to National Insurance Contributions.“Despite some efforts, regional inequalities are persistent and, in some cases, getting worse.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA former UK national security adviser has criticised Rishi Sunak for failing to suspend arms sales to Israel after the US paused a shipment of bombs overnight. Crossbench peer Peter Ricketts said it was unfortunate that Britain had not taken a stand, adding that it should have been “ahead of the US” on the decision. The prime minister is facing mounting pressure, including from within his own party, to immediately suspend arms to Israel amid a growing outcry at the number of Palestinian civilians killed in its war on Hamas.The Biden administration halted the munitions shipment as concerns grew about Israel’s plan to launch a full-scale assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. More than a million civilians are sheltering in the area after they were forced to leave other parts of the strip. A senior official in the US – a huge contributor of military aid to Israel – said a final decision had not yet been taken on whether the shipment of 1,800 2,000lb bombs and 1,700 500lb bombs would go ahead as planned. Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on buildings near the separating wall between Egypt and Rafah More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak was rocked by another day of drama in parliament as Tory MP Natalie Elphicke ambushed him at the start of Prime Minister’s Questions by crossing the floor to Labour.The shock move by a previously hard-right Conservative was kept secret to the last second by Sir Keir Starmer’s inner circle, but left MPs on both sides of the House stunned.Ms Elphicke’s decision came on a day when the prime minister had hoped to re-galvanise his party back into a fighting machine with the first of two briefings on the local elections.But with scores of Tory MPs boycotting the event, it emerged later that a group is in discussions to get the 52 letters needed to trigger a vote of confidence in Mr Sunak. Plotters are understood to have set a deadline of Wednesday next week (15 May) to get the necessary letters in.The prime minister and senior party figures avoided any direct mention of Ms Elphicke at the No 10 briefing, but her defection to Labour also left many in opposition questioning why Sir Keir had accepted her.Natalie Elphicke’s defection to Labour left many of her new colleagues on the opposition benches asking questions More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSuspended Labour MP Kate Osamor has had the party whip restored four months after a controversial Holocaust Memorial Day post suggesting the Israeli action in Gaza is genocide. Ms Osamor, a shadow minister under Jeremy Corbyn, subsequently apologised and instead referred to a “humanitarian disaster”. But she was placed under investigation over the post, which also likened Israel’s war in the beseiged enclave to genocides in Cambodia, Rwanda and Bosnia.Labour confirmed Ms Osamor had been given the whip following “a full investigation”. For her part she said she wanted to “unreservedly apologise again for my comments. I made remarks which were insensitive, inappropriate, and which I apologise for and regret.” The Independent revealed late last month that Ms Osamor would be given the Labour whip again within days. But the decision has been condemned by the Jewish Labour Movement, one of the oldest socialist societies affiliated to the Labour Party. A JLM spokesperson said: “Kate Osamor’s original actions and non-apology were disgraceful and smeared the memory of all those who died in the Holocaust and subsequent genocides in Cambodia, Darfur, Rwanda and Bosnia, as commemorated by the Holocaust Memorial Day Trust.” He added that the onus was “now on her to engage with her local Jewish community… and the wider community, properly. Given her previous record and comments in this area, this will require a sincere and honest approach. Until and unless this happens, the jury is still out.”Edmonton MP Kate Osamor has had the Labour whip reinstated (Richard Townshend/UK Parliament/PA) More