Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Tory minister has appeared to rule out a May general election, suggesting voters will go to the polls this autumn.With Rishi Sunak’s party lagging Labour in the polls by 20 points, Greg Hands said the contest will be “later this year”.The trade minister was asked about mounting speculation the PM could call a snap election in May, to coincide with local elections around the country, but ruled the prospect out.Tory trade minister Greg Hands said the general election will not be in May Asked on Times Radio whether there is “a sniff” of a chance of a May general election, Mr Hands said: “No.”At the same time, Labour’s shadow paymaster general was making a bet with Sky News presenter Kay Burley that the contest would be in May.Jonathan Ashworth said: “After 14 years of the Tories… I think the British people will say it’s time for a change and will want to get rid of the Tories.“And by the way, this election is coming in May. I think it is definitely coming in May… the Conservatives are planning for that.”Mr Ashworth accepted a £10 bet for a children of alcoholics charity and called on Mr Sunak to “name that date”.Mr Sunak has previously said his “working assumption” is that he will call the election in the second half of this year, but has refused to set out a date.But expectations have been raised of a May election ahead of mooted tax cuts in Wednesday’s budget and the potential deportation flights to Rwanda could take off within weeks.Rishi Sunak has refused to say when the general election will be, suggesting it will be at some point in the second half of 2024 No10 has insisted it is committed to getting flights off the ground by the spring, which could combine with a tax giveaway and give the Tories a campaign boost.There are also growing fears Mr Sunak faces a tough set of results at the May local elections, which could destabilise his leadership.And some suggest the government could opt for a May election to limit the damage to the Conservatives, with no evidence the party can expect a turnaround in the polls.Former Tory leader Lord Hague urged the PM to “keep his options open” on the timing of the election, but added that it is “much more likely” to come late this year. Mr Sunak’s deadline to dissolve parliament in time for a 7 May election is 26 March.It comes after a shock survey on Monday revealed the party is on course for one of its worst election defeats in history.It showed for the Conservative Party has plunged to the lowest level since 1978 with just a fifth of British voters now backing Mr Sunak’s party.The Tories were 27 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which would spell electoral oblivion for Mr Sunak’s party if replicated at a general election.The Ipsos poll, published on Monday, shows Mr Sunak could hold on to as few as 25 seats – 351 fewer than Boris Johnson won in 2019 – in what would be a historic defeat.It also predicts Sir Keir could secure as many as 537 seats – 340 more than Jeremy Corbyn managed at the last election and equating to a landslide which would eclipse Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 win.The survey showed support for the Tories at just 20 per cent, the lowest since 1978 when Ipsos started tracking the poll. Ipsos is a multinational market research firm and the poll is the latest in its monthly independent Political Monitor.In the latest survey, Labour’s support has dropped to 47 per cent from the 49 per cent it had in January.Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats were backed by 9 per cent of the electorate, while support for both the Green Party and Reform UK was at 8 per cent – double what it was in January.Ipsos’s previous lowest score for the Conservatives was 22 per cent, recorded by John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, only a few years before Sir Tony’s election win. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJeremy Hunt could raise revenue on air passenger duty in order to fund tax cuts in this week’s Budget.The chancellor is considering a number of options that would allow him to commit to billions of pounds of personal tax cuts after recent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the chancellor less fiscal headroom than previously thought.On the list of options is an increase in air passenger duty of business travel, which would amount to a rise in business class air fares.He is also said to be considering a tax on vapes, an extension of the windfall levy on oil and gas producers, abolishing the non-dom tax loophole and abandoning perks for second homeowners who make money from holiday lets.Follow our live Budget coverage here Mr Hunt is paving the way for a mass tax giveaway in Wednesday’s pre-election Budget, with speculation around cuts to income tax or national insurance. The chancellor will unveil his spring budget on Wednesday The Treasury is said to be considering cutting 1p or 2p from national insurance or income tax. Mr Hunt told Sky News that his last cut of national insurance in the autumn statement in November was a “turning point” and he hopes “to make some progress on that journey”.The chancellor is also planning to use the Budget to insist he can make public services more efficient, having announced plans to make the civil service more productive through the use of AI and better data.Mr Hunt is widely understood to be pursuing tax cuts in the hope of drumming up support for the government, despite recent polling showing that the public do not want to see tax cuts at the expense of public spending.In a survey by the Fairness Foundation, 64 per cent of voters support keeping taxes as they are or increasing them, while just 16 per cent say they want tax cuts if it means cutting public services.Jeremy Hunt hinted that he would be looking to cut taxes but insisted it would be in a ‘responsible’ wayOn Sunday, Mr Hunt said he had a “moral duty” to put more money back in workers’ pockets, but insisted any tax giveaways would be “responsible”.Mr Hunt told Sky News: “It’s going to be a prudent and responsible budget for long-term growth.” Conservative MP Sir John Redwood told TheSunday Telegraph that tax cuts should not be paid for with tax rises and that he “would strongly recommend that they forget all these new taxes and extra taxes and get on with the real job which is lower taxes”.Mr Hunt’s spokesperson declined to comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAll eyes are on Jeremy Hunt this week as the chancellor is set to announce his latest spring Budget.Many will be wondering what to expect, how Mr Hunt’s statement will impact their finances, and what it signals it sends about the Tory party ahead of a looming general election.Measures including further tax cuts and public spending reductions are widely expected to be revealed on Wednesday (6 March), with senior Tories hinting that the chancellor could give the green light to either national insurance or income tax, to try and woo voters back.Asked if such cuts could come at the expense of cutting public services, the chancellor pointed to his record of championing extra investment in the NHS while he was health secretary.Another scheme Mr Hunt is reportedly looking at is a “vaping products levy” which would be imposed on imports and manufacturers of vapes to try and make them unaffordable to children.So, how will the proposals in the spring statement affect your bank balance, wage slip and disposable income – if at all? And when will any changes come into force?What will Wednesday’s announcement reveal about Mr Sunak’s plans for the Tory party – and do national insurance cuts make things harder for Labour? Will the spring statement be the last gasp of a dying government or a clever play to win back voters after a long stretch of political turmoil?If you have a question on the spring Budget, submit it now, or when I join you live at 3pm on Wednesday 6 March for the “Ask Me Anything” event.Register to submit your question in the comments box under this article. If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments section to leave your question. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Don’t worry if you can’t see your question – they may be hidden until I join the conversation to answer them. Then join us live on this page at 3pm as I tackle as many questions as I can. More