Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s Conservative are on course for one of their worst local elections defeats, with polling experts suggesting they are on track to lose some 500 council seats.While Labour are benefiting most, the Tories have also been troubled by the ascendancy of Reform UK, which – with 17 per cent of the vote – were just 117 ballots away from snatching second place in South Blackpool, where Sir Keir Starmer’s party inflicted a crushing by-election defeat on the Tories.And despite so far failing to win a single council seat, the insurgent right-wing party also succeeded in pushing the Conservatives into third place in 16 town hall seats in Sunderland.And polling guru Sir John Curtice said Reform UK could have done greater damage to the Conservative vote had it fielded more candidates in the local elections.Noting that the Tory vote dropped “most heavily” in wards where Reform fielded a candidate, Sir John wrote in the Daily Telegraph: “The only silver lining for Tory HQ was that Reform only contested one in six of the wards where there was an election on Thursday. A full slate would have been even more devastating.”How and when did Reform UK emerge?The party was initially founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, with the backing of former Ukip leader Nigel Farage.While it stormed to victory in the European elections of 2019, winning nearly a third of the vote while campaigning for a no-deal Brexit, it ultimately stood aside against Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019’s general election, receiving just shy of 650,000 ballots – 2 per cent of the national vote.Nigel Farage stood down in March 2021 More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour’s Sadiq Khan takes on Tory rival Susan Hall to win a third term as London mayor, with poll results prior to the actual vote unanimously suggesting he’d win comfortably.But, nevertheless, as London waits for the count to begin on Saturday, several journalists at outlets including GB News and the Byline Times have reported anxieties within the Labour camp and, somewhat incredibly, confidence in Conservative Camp Headquartrs that the result will be tight enough for a historic upset.While polls had tightened in the run-up to the vote, with Savanta putting Ms Hall 10 points behind Mr Khan’s 42 per cent, the incumbent Labour mayor himself fuelled such nerves when he warned – two hours prior to polls closing – that “low numbers of people voting” meant the “real risk” of Tory victory.Susan Hall’s campaign for London mayor has been fraught with controversy More

The winning Tory candidate in the Tees Valley mayor election claimed he “forgot” his blue rosette as he celebrated victory on Friday 3 May.Ben Houchen has denied “trying to pretend” he was not Conservative during his mayoral election campaign, despite saying he could “absolutely” work with Sir Keir Starmer if the Labour leader becomes prime minister.“People know round here I’m a Conservative,” he told Sky News when asked about apparent efforts to distance himself from the Tory Party brand and instead run on a highly personal platform.Lord Houchen was the only candidate on stage not to wear a party rosette at the Tees Valley count, saying he “forgot” it. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailBen Houchen’s victory in the Tees Valley mayoral election provides an almost solitary ray of Tory hope after “seismic” election losses for the party.With hundreds of Conservative councillors losing their seats, failure to win the North Yorkshire mayoralty in Rishi Sunak’s own backyard and the biggest-ever swing against them in a by-election in Blackpool South, things look pretty bleak for the prime minister.Despite all this, it was noticeable after Lord Houchen gave his victory speech – minus a blue rosette or mention of Mr Sunak – that even Boris Johnson’s most manic cheerleader-in-chief, Nadine Dorries, claimed it would be “madness” to ditch Mr Sunak now.This may seem odd for a prime minister who is polling worse than Liz Truss at the absolute nadir of her appalling 49-day premiership after her mini-Budget torpedoed the British economy.Rishi Sunak celebrates victory with Ben Houchen More

Labour’s David Skaith celebrated as he won the York and North Yorkshire mayoral election on Rishi Sunak’s doorstep.The area contains the prime minister’s own constituency of Richmond and was previously considered a Conservative stronghold.It came as another blow to Mr Sunak as the Tories were set to be hit with a humiliating defeat in this year’s local elections.Mr Skaithe was elected as the region’s first leader with 35.1 per cent of the vote, compared with the Tory candidate’s 27.3 per cent. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSadiq Khan faces an anxious wait to find out if he will be re-elected as London mayor amid fears about low turnout and anger over his flagship motoring policy and Labour’s stance on Gaza. Mr Khan is still the favourite to win against his Conservative opponent Susan Hall, when the results are revealed on Saturday. But with just two hours to go before voting closed on Thursday night, he released an impassioned plea on social media warning that “low numbers of people voting” meant the “real risk” of Tory victory. Labour has significantly stepped up its campaign against Ms Hall in recent days. She only became her party’s candidate after its first pick, Daniel Korski, was forced to drop out amid groping allegations.But she has come under fire for joining a Facebook group which contained Islamophobic hate speech and abusive comments about her opponent.A former Tory cabinet minister, Sayeeda Warsi accused her of “gutter politics” in her controversial campaign.Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said a win for her would be one for “racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.” His stance was defended by former Labour MP and ex- Europe minister Denis MacShane who, asked if Ms Hall was a white supremacist, said “she comes pretty close”. But Mr MacShane added that he had been surprised at the hostility in the city toward Mr Khan over his controversial charging policy for the most polluting cars, Ulez. A new poll, conducted by More in Common for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), found 13 per cent of voters said Ulez was a big issue in this election, compared to 45 per cent who selected affordable housing and 36 per cent who mentioned crime. However, Tory insiders believe with turnout low frustrated motorists will have been more likely to vote.In local election results on Friday Labour saw a fall in support in some areas with large Muslim populations, while the party’s elections co-ordinator Pat McFadden admitted the impact of the war in Gaza was “an issue in some parts of the country and I think there’s no point in me … denying that’s the case.” However, pollster and Tory peer Lord Hayward has predicted Mr Khan is likely to avoid a backlash over Gaza, after he broke ranks early in the conflict to call for a ceasefire. To add to Labour nerves a poll on Wednesday showed Mr Khan’s lead over Ms Hall had shrunk to its smallest since the campaign began. The Savanta survey put the Labour mayor on 42 per cent and his Tory rival on 32 per cent.Changes in the rules for this election mean Mr Khan’s vote cannot be ‘topped up’ by second preference votes, which helped him win by a large margin last time around. Counting will not begin until Saturday, after Friday was set aside to verify ballot papers . More

Lee Anderson clashed with BBC journalist Nick Robinson today as the Reform Party was accused of taking votes away from the Conservatives in the local elections.Rishi Sunak sacked Mr Anderson from the Tory party after he refused to apologise for comments he made about London Mayor Sadiq Khan.After losing the whip, Mr Anderson became an independent before joining the Reform Party, created by Nigel Farage.In a heated debate on BBC Radio 4 Today’s programme on Friday (3 May), Mr Robinson asked Mr Anderson about Mr Farage standing in the next election. More

Sadiq Khan casts his vote in the London Mayoral electionSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour has won in Rishi Sunak’s “backyard” of York and North Yorkshire in what is set to look like a humiliating defeat for the Conservative Party in this year’s local elections.Labour mayor David Skaithe was elected as the region’s first leader with 35.1 per cent of the vote, compared with the Tory candidate’s 27.3 per cent.Mr Sunak is the MP for Richmond, North Yorkshire. A Labour Party spokesperson said the prime minister’s own constituents had chosen Labour over the Tories.“This is a truly historic result in York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer’s Labour party is now winning in Rishi Sunak’s backyard,” a Labour spokesperson told The Independent.It comes after Sir Keir urged Sunak to “make way” and call a general election, as he hailed a “seismic” by-election win in Blackpool South on Friday morning.Sir Keir said Labour’s win, in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton, was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally.The Tories have lost 228 councillors across the country so far, compared with a Labour gain of 99. Fifty-five out of 107 councils have been accounted for.Show latest update 1714745487Houchen could ‘absolutely’ work with Starmer and ‘forgot’ blue Tory rosetteBen Houchen said he could “absolutely” work with Sir Keir Starmer if the Labour leader becomes prime minister, but denied “trying to pretend” he was not Conservative during his mayoral election campaign.The winning Tory candidate in the Tees Valley contest appeared to praise the opposition’s position on devolution, saying it would give him “more autonomy” after his victory on Friday.But he said “people know round here I’m a Conservative” when asked about apparent efforts to distance himself from the Tory Party brand and instead run on a highly personal platform.Lord Houchen was the only candidate on stage not to wear a party rosette at the Tees Valley count, saying later he “forgot”.“I have done at previous elections and the honest answer is I didn’t have one and I forgot it. But I’ve got my blue socks on and my blue tie on,” he told Sky News.“The idea that we are trying to pretend I’m not Conservative, I mean people know round here that I’m a Conservative, but thankfully what we’ve seen today is they also know that I’m a Teessider, and I’ll put Teesside first, I’ll put local people first and I’ll do what’s best for the local area.” More