Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailForeign secretary David Cameron has sparked a backlash from Tory MPs after he suggested Britain could bring forward formal UK recognition of a Palestinian state.The former PM has said such a move could help to make a two-state solution – currently stalled, with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu firmly opposed – an “irreversible” process.Lord Cameron – speaking ahead of his latest visit to the Middle East – spelled out how the UK and its allies could add to pressure on Israel by considering recognising a Palestinian state at the United Nations.Palestinian ambassador to the UK Husam Zomlot pounced on his words as “significant” – but senior Conservatives warned Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary not to push too far or too fast.Ex-Tory cabinet minister Theresa Villiers said bringing forward the recognition of a Palestinian state would “reward Hamas’ atrocities” after the 7 October terror attack.Fellow senior Tory Sir Michael Ellis said the move could risk equipping “dangerous actors” with the “trimmings and capabilities of a state”.And Stephen Crabb, another ex-cabinet minister, dsaid the gesture may be “noble”, but questioned what “talk about early recognition” of Palestinian statehood would achieve.Foreign secretary Lord David Cameron faces a backlashLord Cameron told a London reception there was a need to give the Palestinian people “a political horizon” to end the Israeli-Hamas war as he addressed a reception for Arab ambassadors in parliament.The foreign secretary suggested that Britain and others could formally recognise a Palestinian state during peace negotiations – rather than wait for a final peace deal with Israel.“We should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like – what it would comprise, how it would work,” he said on Monday night.“As that happens, we, with allies, will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. This could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible,” Lord Cameron said.The foreign secretary last week pushed Mr Netanyahu to re-consider talks aimed at a two-state solution to bring about peace for both Israeli and Palestinian people.Mr Netanyahu has rebuffed the push from western allies, including the US – saying the plan would “endanger the state of Israel”. The Israeli PM also criticised what he described as an “attempt to coerce us”.On Tuesday Mr Netanyahu ruled out an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza or the release of thousands of militants – both key Hamas demands in ongoing ceasefire talks. The Israeli leader once again vowed that the war will not end without “absolute victory” over Hamas, in remarks to reporters.Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected two-state solution Both No 10 and junior Foreign Office minister Andrew Mitchell responded to Lord Cameron’s remarks on Tuesday by insisting that there has been “no change” in UK policy. Mr Sunak’s spokesman said recognition of a Palestinian state will take place “at a time it best serves the cause of peace”.However, Labour welcomed Lord Cameron’s suggestion. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy told MPs: “As Keir Starmer has said, statehood is not the gift of a neighbour – it is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people.”Mr Lammy added: “I welcome the foreign secretary adopting this position and rejecting the notion that recognition can only follow the conclusion of negotiations.”But as Tory MPs shared their concerns in the Commons on Tuesday, Ms Villiers said it was “really disturbing” that Lord Cameron appeared to have “changed the UK government’s approach on recognition of a Palestinian state”.“Will the minister agree with me that bringing forward and accelerating unilateral recognition of Palestinian state would be to reward Hamas’ atrocities?” she asked.Mr Mitchell replied: “There is no question of rewarding Hamas for the appalling acts they perpetrated in a pogrom on October 7.”“But the point the foreign secretary has been making is that we must give the people of the West Bank and Gaza a credible route to a Palestine state and a new future, but we must do so when the time is right.”Sir Michael also warned that “unilateral recognition of Palestinian state now” risked “equipping those dangerous actors … with the trimmings and capabilities of a state”.David Cameron has pushed Benjamin Netanyahu to consider two-state solution The Palestinian ambassador to the UK described Lord Cameron’s words as a “significant” moment – and even referred to “the Cameron Declaration” in a social media statement.Mr Zomlot said: “It is the first time a UK foreign secretary considers recognising the state of Palestine, bilaterally and in the UN, as a contribution to a peaceful solution rather than an outcome.”He said: “If implemented, the Cameron Declaration would remove Israel’s veto power over Palestinian statehood, would boost efforts toward a two-state outcome.”Lord Cameron, whose latest trip starts in Oman, is expected to say Britain will do “everything it can” to prevent the conflict from “spilling over borders” during a visit to the Middle East.In Oman, the foreign secretary is expected to meet his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, to discuss de-escalating rising tensions across the region.An attack by Iran-backed militia in Jordan over the weekend that killed three US troops and left dozens injured has stoked fresh fears of a Western confrontation with Tehran.Meanwhile, Lord Cameron is preparing to make his first major speech since returning to government in the coming weeks, according to the i.He is expected to warn the world is now more dangerous than at any time since the Cold War and say world leaders were too complacent about the long-term dominance following the fall of the Soviet Union. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Jeremy Hunt that he cannot afford to cut taxes in his March Budget.The financial agency said any tax cuts would be “very challenging to achieve” considering Britain’s ageing population and mounting debt pile. It said funding the transition to net zero and protecting the UK’s public services would need higher spending in the medium term than current government plans.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has vowed to cut taxes at his March Budget (Daniel Leal/PA)“It is in this context that staff advise against further tax cuts,” an IMF spokesman said.But as the report came out at lunchtime, Mr Hunt said he would still consider planned tax cuts on March 6. His plans expose the split between the government and the IMF, with Mr Hunt and the Treasury arguing in favour of tax cuts to fuel growth, and the international body claiming strong public services were needed to boost the economy.The chancellor said “smart tax reductions” would help grow Britain’s ailing economy. He said it is “too early to know whether further tax reductions will be affordable, but said “we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth”.Despite squeezed public finances, Mr Hunt has vowed a giveaway in March, claiming the government’s “careful management of the economy” means he can “start cutting taxes again”. His hopes were boosted last week as official figures showed government that borrowing was lower than expected. The chancellor and Rishi Sunak want to lower taxes to draw a dividing line with Labour, arguing that Sir Keir Starmer would raise taxes if he wins the keys to Downing Street.It is widely thought that the chancellor will opt for either a further cut to national insurance or lower the basic rate of income tax.IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier-Gourinchas said: “There is a need to put in place medium-term fiscal plans that will accommodate a very significant increase in spending pressures.“In the case of the UK, you might think of spending on healthcare and modernising the NHS; spending on social care; on education; you might think about critical public investment to address the climate transition; but also to boost growth.”So, it’s very important to have in place medium-term fiscal plans that accommodate these pressures at the same time ensuring that debt dynamics remain stable and contained.”That requires a combination of tax and spending measures to make sure that you can allocate the resources where they need to be allocated, but at the same time preventing your debt levels from increasing.”In that context we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now.”Labour said the IMF warning was “yet more evidence of 14 years of Conservative economic failure”.Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “The Tories have left Britain with high debt, flatlining growth, high taxes and working people worse off.”And the Liberal Democrats said the “damning” IMF verdict showed the government’s “failure on the economy”.Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative Government is a disaster for our economy and needs to leave Downing Street before even more damage is done.”It came as the IMF said Britain’s economy will grow slower than expected over the next two years and will be among the worst performers in the G7 group of advanced economies. The body’s economists expect UK growth to hit 0.6 per cent this year, and 1.6 per cent next.It would make the economy the second-worst performer in the G7 this year and the joint third-worst performer in 2025.The IMF’s forecast for this year is unchanged since its past report in October, but has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points for next year. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has insisted he is “absolutely confident” ahead of the 2024 general election, despite being 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer in the polls.The prime minister told ITV’s This Morning that he was ready for the contest and said Britain has “turned a corner”.Mr Sunak’s assertion comes amid warnings from major pollsters that he faces a 1997-style election wipeout, and despite several relaunches of his leadership failing to make a dent in Labour’s poll lead.Rishi Sunak laughed when asked if he is going to win this year’s general election“We have clearly been through a tough time over the last year as a country,” Mr Sunak said.He added: “We are still dealing with the legacy of Covid, backlogs in the NHS, the war in Ukraine driving energy bills, but I really believe that at the start of this year we have turned a corner and are heading in the right direction.”Asked by presenters Rylan Clark and Rochelle Humes if he is “confident” about the general election, Mr Sunak said: “I am, absolutely.”He said “the plan we have put in place is working”, pointing to the reduction in inflation as evidence.And he added: “By tomorrow, everyone will have had a tax cut by the way because of our management of the economy. If you are earning £35,000 you are going to get a tax cut worth £450.“That is what we are starting to deliver, if we stick with this plan I will be able to give everyone that peace of mind that there is a brighter future for them and their children.”But despite optimism about this year’s contest, Mr Sunak played down the prospect of a longer stint in Downing Street.“With the best will in the world, I am probably not going to be here in 13 or 14 years,” Mr Sunak said.His comments came weeks after a major YouGov survey predicted the Tories are on track for a 1997-style general election wipeout.According to the poll, the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.Alarmingly for the Tories, it said chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats, in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.Other ministers under threat include education secretary Gillian Keegan and defence secretary Grant Shapps.As well as trailing Labour in the polls, the Tories are facing an assault on the right from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.The party, formerly called the Brexit Party, risks splitting the vote in tens of Tory seats, opening the door to Labour and adding to the scale of Mr Sunak’s losses. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, speaks to the press on Tuesday 30 January after a deal was struck between the DUP and British government.A deal to restore Stormont powersharing will remove all post-Brexit checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, the leader of the DUP has insisted.Sir Jeffrey Donaldson expressed hope that the Stormont institutions could be back up within days after he secured the backing of his party executive for government proposals aimed at addressing the DUP’s concerns over Brexit’s so-called Irish Sea border.The parties eligible to participate in a revived ministerial executive are due to meet later on Tuesday to discuss the next steps.Sir Jeffrey conceded that his party had not got everything it wanted in the negotiations with the UK government, but he said the deal provided the basis for the DUP to drop its two-year blockade on devolution in Belfast. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNorthern Ireland’s top unionist party have announced they will end their boycott of the government after more than 700 days following a mammoth overnight meeting. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, emerged after 1am this morning to announce he had secured the “decisive” backing of his executive to resume power sharing with the nationalists. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson (PA)“I am pleased to report that the party executive has now endorsed the proposals that I have put to them,” he told reporters in the early hours of Tuesday. “The party has concluded that subject to the binding commitments between the Democratic Unionist Party and the UK government being fully and faithfully delivered as agreed, including the tabling and passing of new legislative measures in Parliament and final agreement on a timetable, the package of measures in totality does provide a basis for our party to nominate members to the Northern Ireland Executive, thus seeing the restoration of the locally elected institutions.”The announcement spells the beginning of the end for Northern Ireland’s two-year government shutdown. The DUP has been using a veto power to block Stormont’s devolved institutions in protest at post-Brexit arrangements that have created trade barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.It has been involved in protracted talks with the government aimed at securing concessions on the arrangements that would address its concerns around trade and sovereignty.Sir Jeffrey said he would drop the blockade on devolution at Stormont once the government implemented the various legislative assurances and other measures it had offered his party.The 130-strong DUP executive met for more than five hours last night to discuss the government deal aimed at addressing its concerns over post-Brexit trade barriers. The meeting was shrouded in secrecy, with participants only told of the location – the remote Larchfield Estate – three hours before they were scheduled to arrive. Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton Harris welcomed the step and made clear the government would deliver on its end of the deal.“I am grateful to Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and colleagues for the constructive dialogue over the past months and to the other political parties in Northern Ireland for the patience they have shown during this time,” he said.“I am pleased that the DUP have agreed to accept the package of measures that the UK government has put forward and as a result they are ready to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly and nominate representatives to the Northern Ireland Executive.“Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has said this is subject to the binding commitments between the Democratic Unionist Party and the UK government – I can confirm that we will stick to this agreement.“I now believe that all the conditions are in place for the Assembly to return, the parties entitled to form an Executive are meeting tomorrow to discuss these matters and I hope to be able to finalise this deal with the political parties as soon as possible.”Sir Jeffrey said DUP party officers – a key 12-strong decision making body – had also “mandated” him to move forward on the basis he was proposing.During the power sharing impasse, the DUP has used “seven tests” to measure any proposals designed to address its concerns on the trading arrangements. Sir Jeffrey said the package on the table represented “progress” across all seven tests.Support for the deal is not unanimous within the DUP and several senior figures remain fiercely opposed to the proposed agreement to restore power sharing.Asked about potential dissent within the party, Sir Jeffrey added: “I am confident that all members of the party will accept what was a decisive move by the party executive this evening.”Around 50 loyalist and unionist protesters assembled outside Monday night’s meeting at the Larchfield estate in Co Down, many carrying posters and banners warning against a DUP “sellout”.Some shouted at DUP members as they drove into the grounds of the venue.Nationalist party Sinn Fein would be in line to take the First Minister’s job in any restored ministerial executive in Belfast.Party president Mary Lou McDonald said she was optimistic Stormont could return before the next legislative deadline for forming an administration, 8 February.“I am optimistic having heard Jeffrey Donaldson’s public declaration that we will see the northern institutions back up and running before the February 8 deadline with a fully functioning Assembly and Executive and north south bodies,” she said.“Sinn Fein will now engage with the parties and both governments to ensure we now all press on without delay.“It is vital there is political stability to address the scale of the crisis across our public services.“Let’s now focus our minds on the job at hand and on the solutions required to support workers and families who want and deserve a functioning government.”Regardless of who forms the next UK government, these agreed measures will be taken forward beyond the forthcoming general electionSir Jeffrey DonaldsonDUP efforts to keep details of Monday’s executive meeting secret were seriously undermined when Jamie Bryson, a loyalist activist and vocal opponent of the government deal, posted on X, formerly Twitter, what he said were live updates from the confidential briefing – posts that included details of apparent attempts to find out who was leaking the information to Mr Bryson.Sir Jeffrey told the press conference at the Hinch Distillery in Ballynahinch that the package, which he said would be published by the government in due course, safeguarded Northern Ireland’s place in the Union and restored its place within the UK internal market.“It will remove checks for goods moving within the UK and remaining in Northern Ireland and will end Northern Ireland automatically following future EU laws,” he said.“There will be legislation to provide new legal and practical protections for the Acts of Union and which guarantees unfettered access for Northern Ireland businesses to the rest of the United Kingdom.“In the coming days, in addition to the publication of the details of the new package of proposals, the UK government will be required to deliver on the legislative commitments they have made to us.”Sir Jeffrey said he had also secured cross party support for the proposals at Westminster.“Therefore, regardless of who forms the next UK government, these agreed measures will be taken forward beyond the forthcoming general election,” he said.“Throughout this process, we have been clear and have made clear we will only be able to move after the government faithfully delivers on the implementation of its legal and other commitments.“The package of measures will require a significant number of actions to be taken and we look forward with confidence to their ongoing implementation, according to an agreed timeline.“Upon that basis, the Democratic Unionist Party would support the calling of a meeting of the Northern Ireland Assembly to elect the speaker and facilitate the nomination of ministers.”He continued: “I believe that with the faithful delivery of this package of measures, hard work and dedication, we will be able to look back on this moment as the defining time when Northern Ireland’s place within the Union was safeguarded, and our place within the United Kingdom internal market was restored.“Over the coming period, we will work alongside others to build a thriving Northern Ireland firmly within the Union for this and succeeding generations.“When our grandchildren look back on this period, they will be able to say we had a just cause, we held the line, we restored the balance and we secured a positive future for Northern Ireland and its integral place in the Union of the United Kingdom.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Northern Ireland’s largest British unionist party has agreed to end a boycott that left the region’s people without a power-sharing administration for two years, it said Tuesday.After a late-night meeting, Democratic Unionist Party leader Jeffrey Donaldson said the party’s executive has backed proposals to return to the government. He said agreements reached with the U.K. government in London “provide a basis for our party to nominate members to the Northern Ireland Executive, thus seeing the restoration of the locally elected institutions.”The breakthrough came after the U.K. government last week gave Northern Ireland politicians until Feb. 8 to restore the collapsed government in Belfast or face new elections.“All the conditions are in place for the Assembly to return,” Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris said. “The parties entitled to form an Executive are meeting today to discuss these matters, and I hope to be able to finalize this deal with the political parties as soon as possible.”The DUP walked out in February 2022 in a dispute over post-Brexit trade rules. Ever since, it has refused to return to the government with the Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein. Under power-sharing rules established as part of Northern Ireland’s peace process, the administration must include both British unionists and Irish nationalists.The walkout left Northern Ireland’s 1.9 million people without a functioning administration to make key decisions as the cost of living soared and backlogs strained the creaking public health system.The DUP quit the government in opposition to the new trade rules put in place after the U.K. left the European Union in 2020 that imposed customs checks and other hurdles on goods moving to Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. The checks were imposed to maintain an open border between the north and its EU neighbor, the Republic of Ireland, a key pillar of Northern Ireland’s peace process. The DUP, though, says the new east-west customs border undermines Northern Ireland’s place in the U.K.In February 2023, the U.K. and the EU agreed on a deal to ease customs checks and other hurdles for goods moving to Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. But it was not enough for the DUP, which continued its government boycott.Teachers, nurses and other public sector workers in Northern Ireland staged a 24-hour strike this month calling on politicians to return to the government and give them a long-delayed pay raise. The British government has agreed to give Northern Ireland more than 3 billion pounds ($3.8 billion) for its public services, but only if the executive in Belfast gets back up and running. More