Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour is considering a scheme that would see asylum seekers’ claims processed elsewhere, according to reports. Sir Keir Starmer’s party is considering “detailed plans” for a so-called offshoring scheme, as he seeks to deter Tory attacks on Labour’s alternative to the Rwanda plan.The Labour leader has previously dismissed the bid to deport some asylum seekers to the African nation as a “gimmick” and made clear his party’s opposition.But The Times reports that shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper and shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock have been speaking to asylum experts, former home secretary Lord David Blunkett and other European countries to draw up an alternative proposal to tackle small boats crossings in the Channel.The plan would see migrants having asylum claims processed overseas, with successful applicants allowed to come to the UK.While explicit backing for an offshoring scheme would mark a significant shift for Labour, Sir Keir did signal earlier this month that he would not be opposed to considering such an approach.“Other countries around the world do have schemes where they divert people on the way and process them elsewhere. That’s a different kind of scheme.“And, look, I’ll look at any scheme that might work,” he told reporters after a speech in Buckinghamshire.Labour has been contacted for comment about the report, which claims that the party has drawn up “three tests” for any such scheme – that it is cost-effective, credible enough to deter migrants, and would avoid the legal challenges that have delayed the Rwanda plan.Prime minister Rishi Sunak and home secretary James Cleverly are hoping fresh legislation, currently in the Commons, will be enough to revive the flagship policy after it was declared unlawful by the Supreme Court earlier this year.According to The Times a Labour “red line” would be any scheme that would automatically block migrants being granted asylum in the UK, with British officials also required to be in charge of processing claims.This is not the first time the party has looked at such an approach.In the early 2000s, Lord Blunkett and the Blair government were believed to be in talks with Tanzania about the possibility of housing asylum seekers in the country while claims were processed in the UK.Lord Blunkett told the paper: “What’s absolutely crucial is who is doing the processing and that they’re allowed back into the country. Without it, you’re merely transferring the problem on to somebody else. But if British officials are doing the processing, then you’ve got a scheme that fits with the conventions.”It comes as Sir Keir and his frontbench team enter a crucial period, with a general election likely to be less than 12 months away.The Conservatives have sought to make tackling illegal migration a crunch issue, with stopping the boats one of Mr Sunak’s “five priorities”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailReform UK has said it plans to stand against the Tories in every seat at the next election in a move which could spell electoral trouble for Rishi Sunak.The party, which contested the 2019 general election as the Brexit Party, has given “cast-iron guarantees” to top figures that it will not do a deal with the Tories.In the 2019 contest, former leader Nigel Farage stood down hundreds of candidates to help Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Corbyn to No 10.Nigel Farage, the former Reform UK party leader with Tice, his successorBut Richard Tice, who took over as leader in 2021, has told senior figures including former Tory minister Ann Widdecombe that he will not repeat the move, The Sunday Times reported. The development will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street, with Reform threatening to split the Tory vote in key seats across the country – boosting Labour’s chances.Luke Tryl, director at pollsters More in Common, said Reform could see the Tories lose more than 30 additional seats.He told The Independent: “Reform could well be the difference between a hung parliament and a Labour majority.”The party’s support has been boosted by growing discontent at Mr Sunak’s record on immigration and asylum, with around one-tenth of voters currently supporting Reform.And while it has so far failed to live up to the poll rating in a series of by-elections, in two recent contests – Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – its vote share was larger than the amount by which Labour won.Prime minister Rishi Sunak is already facing a difficult general election campaign “The Tories can take some hope to date that Reform’s by-election performances haven’t been as good as those poll ratings, meaning upcoming contests in Blackpool and Wellingborough will be a good test of how real that reform threat is,” Mr Tryl added.Reform could also be boosted by the return of Mr Farage from his stint on I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here. He has spoken regularly to Mr Tice since his return and the pair are expected to discuss his “future role” in the coming days.Mr Tice told The Sunday Times: “In the 2024 election year we will be ready whenever it comes, spring, summer or autumn. We will be standing in seats everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales.“Many, including Tory MPs and commentators, still don’t believe us, but I have news for them: you are seriously underestimating our intent to have a massive impact in this coming election.”A senior party figure meanwhile said the “toxic Tories are done and finished… we will attack them mercilessly”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailDavid Cameron has warned that Britain will not tolerate the escalation of Iran’s “malign” activities on the world stage.The former prime minister described Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah as proxies for Iran and said they are contributing to an “extremely high” level of danger and insecurity around the world.Lord Cameron, who was made a peer in order to become Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary last month, said Iran must be sent a clear message escalation will not be tolerated.Foreign secretary Lord David Cameron has made two visits to the Middle East since returning to government And he promised that Britain would work with allies to develop a strong set of deterrent measures against Tehran.After a trip to France, Italy, Jordan and Egypt, Lord Cameron told the Telegraph: “Iran is a thoroughly malign influence in the region and in the world – there’s no doubt about that. You’ve got the Houthis, you’ve got Hezbollah, you’ve got the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq that have actually been attacking British and American bases, troops.“And, of course, Hamas. So you’ve got all of these proxies, and I think it’s incredibly important that, first of all, Iran receives an incredibly clear message that this escalation will not be tolerated.“Second of all, we need to work with our allies to develop a really strong set of deterrent measures against Iran, and it’s important that we do that. The level of danger and insecurity in the world is at an extremely high level compared with previous years and decades, and the Iran threat is a part of that picture.”It comes as Iranian-backed Houthi soldiers have stepped up attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea in recent weeks.The Houthi rebels are understood to be targeting ships using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with the pro-Hamas group seeking to disrupt ships set for Israel.Last week, oil giant BP became the latest major firm to pause shipping through the Red Sea over the attacks.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of IranLord Cameron summoned Iran’s most senior diplomat in the UK to the foreign office on Friday to “make clear these threats will not be tolerated”.It comes amid growing concern in government at Iran’s increasing aggression on the world stage.Grant Shapps also sounded the alarm over the deteriorating situation in the Gulf, with Houthis attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea.The defence secretary said the UK would not allow the critical maritime route to become a no-go area.In an interview with The Sunday Times, Mr Shapps said: “We are committed to protecting British interests [in the Gulf] – vessels sailing under a UK flag, or with British sailors or carrying goods destined for our shores.“We have seen the disruption the terrorist attacks have caused — with major operators, including Maersk and BP, avoiding the region. We can’t allow any maritime area to become a no-go area, particularly such a vital route. But wider than that, we need to promote a safer world. The spate of illegal attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security.”He added that the “rules-based world order” means Britain must be committed to repelling the attacks and protecting global trade. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has urged people to focus on “the promise of a better future” in his Christmas message ahead of next year’s general election.The prime minister said Christmas is “a time of hope” but that it is important to remember those “facing a difficult time”.Mr Sunak, who is a Hindu, highlighted the “Christian values at the heart of this celebration of Christ’s birth”.The PM said: “Christmas is a time of peace, joy, compassion. A time of hope and a promise of a better world.“And today as we look ahead, let’s keep that promise of a brighter future burning into the new year.”The prime minister described Christmas as a ‘magical time of the year’ His words came as Sir Keir Starmer and the other major party leaders sent Christmas messages to voters.The Labour leader said the story of Jesus is a reminder that “in times of darkness and despair, hope, love and peace are always worth advocating for”.And Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said Christmas “gives us a chance to reflect on the past year, whilst looking forward to a new one”.Mr Sunak and the other party leaders were reflecting on the values of Christmas after a torrid year dominated by spiralling inflation, industrial action, and record NHS waiting lists.The prime minister described it as a “magical time of the year” and thanked NHS staff, police and the armed forces for “sacrificing their Christmases this year in the service of others”.His Christmas message came between strikes by junior doctors in England, with the longest walkout in NHS history due to begin on 3 January.Keir Starmer’s Christmas address focused on hope and optimism Sir Keir said: “Throughout the Christmas period, we see the bonds of kinship rekindled as families and friends share in the joy, the hope and the optimism that Christmas provides.“For Christians the world over, this is a time to rejoice in the birth of Jesus Christ – God’s son.“The birth of Jesus Christ brings light into our world and reminds us that in times of darkness and despair, hope, love and peace are always worth advocating for.“Charity, humility and selflessness take centre stage in the Christmas story – and this season serves as a reminder that these qualities should be a guiding light for all of us.”He thanked the NHS, postal workers, military personnel, and retail and hospitality staff for their work over Christmas, and praised the “generosity of churches and charities”.Sir Ed said: “I want to send my love and prayers to those caring for loved ones over Christmas.Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey highlighted the plight of those who are missing loved ones over Christmas “You are unsung heroes of our health system, and Christmas is a time when your acts of kindness and care are felt even more.“We hold in our hearts those less fortunate than ourselves. And to those who, this year, are without loved ones over Christmas.“Whether through loss or the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, if you are missing family and friends at your Christmas table, you are in my thoughts.”Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf used his Christmas message to address the conflict in the Middle East, saying: “My prayer this Christmas is for peace and an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.”He also said that the cost of living crisis would affect people’s Christmases.“Christmas is a special time of year where people gather with their loved ones,” the SNP leader said.Humza Yousaf talked about the conflict between Israel and Hamas “However, I know for many people – many families in Scotland – it has been a challenging year. And as we come together over the festive period, the cost of living will be on many people’s minds.”Mr Sunak will call a general election in 2024, with his party facing an uphill battle to avoid electoral wipeout at the hands of Sir Keir’s resurgent Labour Party.The Tories are currently 19 points behind Labour in the polls, and have been warned they face defeat on the scale of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Conservative Party is more focused on itself than the country, Tory chairman Richard Holden has admitted.The party’s “biggest weakness” is that it is “inward-looking” rather than looking out at the country, he said.After weeks of bitter infighting over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda deportation scheme, Mr Holden said “being inward-looking is the biggest weakness”.The headlines have been dominated by factional warfare over the policy, designed to let Mr Sunak deport asylum seekers to the east African nation, with deep splits emerging between hardline right-wingers and more moderate Conservative MPs.But despite admitting the party has been too focused on internal battles, Mr Holden gave the Conservatives an eight out of 10 for party unity. “It’s definitely on the improving scale,” he insisted.Richard Holden replaced Greg Hands as Tory chairman last month In an interview with Times Radio, Mr Holden said that having now “kicked the tires inside the building”, the Conservative Party is “in a better place than I think some might have thought it would be”.He added: “We’ve got an excellent new team coming on board in terms of [political strategist] Isaac Levido and all of his campaign gang.“We’ve really ramped up our campaigning efforts right across the country, we’ve got more staff on the ground than we’ve had for a very long time, and I think we know we’re in quite a good place, actually, internally.“But obviously, I want to make sure that the party stays as united as practically possible as we head through this election year.”Despite Mr Holden’s positivity, the Conservative Party faces an uphill battle ahead of next year’s general election. The Tories have consistently trailed Labour in the polls, with a deficit of 19 points.Rishi Sunak faces a battle to turn around his party’s fortunes ahead of a general election next year Britain’s top pollster last week told The Independent that Mr Sunak is facing a landslide election defeat.In a grim seasonal message, Professor Sir John Curtice said the prime minister faces a “very bleak situation”. The Conservatives could lose as many as 220 of their current total of 350 MPs in the election due next year, he claimed, warning they are heading for a “collapse” on a par with Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.Mr Sunak’s personal popularity with voters has also plunged to a record low in a fresh headache for the Conservative Party.Strategists had hoped that the PM’s relative popularity compared to the party would help its image recover in the wake of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson’s premierships.But he is now as unpopular as Mr Jonhson before the ex-PM was forced out of Downing Street, and is heading toward levels seen by Ms Truss in the dying days of her tenure in No10.He is also now as unpopular as the Conservative Party as a whole and is viewed negatively by most of those who voted Tory in 2019, according to YouGov. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s decision to scrap HS2 north of Birmingham will bring “higher fares and congestion for decades”, it has been claimed. Plans to make up for the lost capacity due to the cancellation of the railway, which was first revealed by The Independent, are said to be years away and passengers will reportedly have to be priced off the railway to ease congestion. The prime minister used his Tory conference speech in October to confirm The Independent’s reports that the northern leg of the high speed rail line would be scrapped, sparking fury among regional leaders and business chiefs.Experts have now said the decision to cancel the second phase of the project will have knock on effects for the rest of the century.Andrew McNaughton, HS2’s former technical director, said Mr Sunak had created a “growth reduction scheme” by axing the route.Rishi Sunak used his conference speech to confirm the scrapping of the northern leg of HS2 He told The Observer the “whole strategy for connecting the north and south of England was HS2”.“Any other plans were all predicated on HS2 creating the new capacity either directly or indirectly for the next 100 years,” he said.He added: “If there is nothing to replace it, you would need to ration. What’s the rationing on the railway? You have to price people off. That’s how it’s always been done as the only way of managing demand.”“There is no alternative,” Mr McNaughton said. He added that HS2 was “by far the best solution” unless Britain is to live with congestion for the rest of the century, choking economic growth. “It was the only big intervention that was going to work,” Mr McNaughton said.Network Rail confirmed that since Mr Sunak’s decision to scrap phase two of HS2 it had kicked off a project examining how best to avoid congestion among the west coast mainline.Former PM Lord Cameron said Mr Sunak had made the ‘wrong decision’ by scrapping HS2 But industry insiders told The Observer that completion of the review would be “years away”.A Network Rail spokesman said: “For over a decade the long term strategy for dealing with the growth and capacity constraints along the [west coast mainline] has been the completion of HS2 to Manchester.“Now the government has changed course, our strategic planning team are starting a large piece of work to look at what interventions will now be required in the decades ahead to deal and address those growth and capacity issues and pulling together modelling and plans and proposals which will eventually go to the government to seek funding to implement.”After The Independent revealed secret government plans codenamed Operation Redwood to junk the railway line, Mr Sunak blamed ballooning costs for his decision to junk the railway line, saying the “facts have changed” since it was planned.“I am ending this long-running saga. I am cancelling the rest of the HS2 project and in its place, we will reinvest every single penny, £36bn, in hundreds of new transport projects in the North and the Midlands, across the country,” he said.But he was criticised by business chiefs and local leaders across the north of England and even former PM David Cameron.Lord Cameron said Mr Sunak had made the “wrong decision” and would “fuel the views of those who argue that we can no longer think or act for the long-term as a country”.The government said capacity between London and Birmingham, the most congested part of the west coast mainline, would “nearly double” thanks to phase one of HS2.A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “This is in addition to redirected funding from Phase 2 being used to support a raft of transport projects across the country, benefitting more people in more places, more quickly.” More