Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA wounded Rishi Sunak has secured victory in a crunch vote on his flagship Rwanda policy – but his political future remains under threat ahead of a new year showdown on the issue. The prime minister faces another battle with his MPs within weeks after parliament backed his emergency legislation by 313 votes to 269. As he fought to keep his controversial deportation scheme alive, Mr Sunak even flew a minister back from the Cop28 climate change conference in Dubai to vote.But he now faces a struggle to pass the bill at its next hurdle after Tory rebels, many of whom abstained instead of voting it down, warned they could not support it without significant changes. In another extraordinary day at Westminster: • Mr Sunak tried to woo rebels over bacon sarnies in No 10• Home secretary James Cleverly said the new legislation was “very much pushing at the edge of the envelope” of international law• Behind closed doors, the prime minister promised Tory MPs he was willing to “tighten” the legislation, those who attended a breakfast summit said• Rebels expressed frustration at the lack of a clear commitment to amend the bill• Former Tory leader Lord Hague urged his party to “pull themselves together” before the vote, warning there was “no guarantee” it would ever return to government if it loses the next general electionIn a moment of high drama just minutes before the vote, five groups of Tory MPs on the right of the party announced they would not support the bill.However, they announced they would mainly abstain at this stage and try to amend the bill. But they put the prime minister on notice that they could vote to kill the plan if it is not hardened enough. Speaking on behalf of the group, Mark Francois, the chair of the European Research Group (ERG), said: “We reserve the right to vote against it at third reading, that is collectively what we have decided.”In response, Mr Sunak said: “The British people should decide who gets to come to this country – not criminal gangs or foreign courts. That’s what this bill delivers”. In a move that risks riling the rebels, Mr Cleverly tweeted after the vote: “Parliament has spoken.”Former party leader Iain Duncan Smith said he had backed the government but indicated he reserved the right to vote against the plan at its third reading.Asked if he could pull his support, he told Sky News: “I want to see the government listen and engage … so we’ll see where it goes.”Lists released by parliament suggested that no Tory MP voted against the bill. But high-profile names were among 38 Tory abstentions including former home secretary Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister who quit in protest at the plan last week. Before the vote, Labour had said that defeat, the first time a government would have lost on the second reading of a bill since the mid-1980s, should lead to a general election. Just 57 Tory MPs abstaining, or 29 voting against, the bill would have been enough to defeat the government. But Mr Sunak now faces an uphill battle to get his legislation through its next Commons stage. MPs traditionally allow bills to pass at second reading to allow them to be amended or improved, before casting their final judgement at the third reading of the bill. Even before the latest vote, Tory MPs warned they could sink the legislation. Former minister David Jones, deputy chairman of the ERG, said: “We believe we have the numbers, if necessary, to stop the bill progressing.” To add to his woes, Mr Sunak is now under pressure from two warring sides of his party. MPs on the right are threatening to vote against the bill if he does not amend it, while those on the more moderate wing threatening to pull their support if he does. Prime minister Rishi Sunak has called on MPs to back the plansSir Bob Neill, the Tory MP and chairman of the Commons justice committee, said his support “would go” if that happened “because for me it goes as close to the wind as one can constitutionally do”. To go any further would be “unconservative, and then I would not support it”, he added. One former cabinet minister who supported Mr Sunak’s leadership campaign warned that “it is hard to see how these issues [between the warring factions] get resolved” before the next crucial Commons vote. Asked how it would end for his party leader, he added: “Badly.”Amid the infighting, another Tory grandee, Sir Edward Leigh, warned Tory MPs: “A house divided is a house that is going to be destroyed.” And a former minister, Jackie Doyle-Price, accused her party of “stupid” rows that would benefit only the Labour Party. Mr Sunak spent all day trying to head off a major Commons rebellion over his plan. He pleaded with Tory MPs to back the bill and tried to woo rebels over bacon sarnies at a breakfast meeting in Downing Street, as well as during one-to-one meetings. In a social media post, Mr Sunak publicly appealed to his MPs to support him, saying: “To stop the boats, we need to back this bill.”As he tried to persuade MPs in the Commons, Mr Cleverly said: “The actions that we are taking, whilst novel, whilst very much pushing at the edge of the envelope, are within the framework of international law.”‘Novel actions’: home secretary James Cleverly Mr Sunak was forced to bring forward the emergency legislation after the UK Supreme Court ruled his plans unlawful. The prime minister has pinned his hopes on a new treaty with Rwanda, which is designed to guarantee refugees are not wrongly sent back to countries they have fled, and the new legislation. But he suffered a shock blow last week when the immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who would have taken the bill through parliament, resigned, warning it did not go far enough and would not work. Others on the Tory right have also called for it to go further and override the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), to ensure it cannot be blocked by judges in Strasbourg. Jonathan Gullis, a member of the New Conservatives grouping who attended the breakfast summit, said he had “grave concerns” the legislation would mean “we will end up being bogged down with individual claims that mean that we’ll see very few people put on the plane to Rwanda”.One MP who attended the breakfast expressed frustration at the prime minister’s approach, saying: “I would love to know what he means by ‘tightening’ the bill.”Earlier, Downing Street had rejected calls to pull the bill from Tory rebels, who warned it “needs major surgery or replacement”.Delaying the vote would have raised uncomfortable parallels with ousted former Tory leader Theresa May who pulled her “meaningful vote” Brexit legislation as she struggled to get it through the Commons. Before the vote, Mr Jenrick was understood to be planning to vote against the legislation unless the government committed to amending it. He pushed for the ability to overrule European Court of Human Rights injunctions in a speech to the Commons, telling MPs: “This bill could be so much better. Let’s make it better.”A No 10 source said the government would “continue to listen to and engage with colleagues across the party” on the bill as it goes through parliament. Former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke warned Rishi Sunak that the bill risked the government failing to “deliver on our promise to stop the boats” for a third time. The bill allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act but does not go as far as overriding the ECHR, a key demand from hardliners. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer dismissed the Rwanda plan as a “gimmick” and piece of political “performance art” and accused the Conservative Party of behaving more like Donald Trump than Winston Churchill in its obsession over the scheme. More

Rishi Sunak should ‘pull the Rwanda bill’ now, says Tory right-wingerSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been warned the Conservatives “could be out of power forever” as the crunch debate on his Rwanda bill begins.Speaking to Times Radio, former Tory leader Lord William Hague said that MPs “picking holes” in the prime minister’s plan rather than uniting ahead of the key vote tonight “have only got opposition to look forward to”.Home Secretary James Cleverly opened the Commons debate on the bill, which would designate Rwanda as a safe country for asylum seekers and be voted on at 7pm.The bid for Mr Sunak’s latest plan to “stop the boats” comes as it was confirmed that an asylum seeker died on the Bibby Stockholm barge, the accommodation used by the government to house migrants.The prime minister is facing a potential rebellion from warring factions of his party over the bill and hosted an emergency breakfast in Downing Street with rebels in an attempt to convince them to vote for the bill.Right-wing Conservatives are set to hold a joint meeting tonight to discuss the vote – but there is an increasing belief among Tory rebels that Mr Sunak’s bill will be successful.Show latest update
1702392707Rebels warned of ‘consequences’ if they vote against Rishi Sunak’s planTory rebels have been warned not to vote against Rishi Sunak’s deal or there will be “consequences”, it has emerged. Those considering opposing the PM’s plan could lose the Conservative Party whip, The Sun’s political editor Harry Cole reported.Archie Mitchell, Political Correspondent12 December 2023 14:511702392660Watch: Cleverly promises investigation after asylum seeker dies on Bibby StockholmCleverly promises investigation after asylum seeker dies on Bibby StockholmTara Cobham12 December 2023 14:511702392565Jenrick: ‘The test of this policy is, “Will it work?”’Conservative former immigration minister Robert Jenrick told the Commons: “This is not a bad Bill but it is not the best Bill. I want this Bill to work.“The test of this policy is not ‘is it the strongest Bill we’ve done?’, it’s not ‘is it a good compromise?’, it’s ‘will it work?’.“That is all the public care about. They don’t care about Rwanda as a scheme, they care about stopping the boats. And we are sent here to do that for them.“I will never elevate contested notions of international law over the interests of my constituents, over vital national interests like national security, like border security.“This Bill could be so much better, let’s make it better. Let’s make it work.”Tara Cobham12 December 2023 14:491702392260Cleverly promises investigation after asylum seeker dies on Bibby StockholmThe home secretary told MPs in the House of Commons: “Tragically, there has been (a) death on the Bibby Stockholm barge. I’m sure that the thoughts of the whole House, like mine, are with those affected.“The House will understand that at this stage I am uncomfortable getting into any more details. But we will of course investigate fully.”Dorset Police said they received a report of a sudden death of a resident on the Bibby Stockholm at 6:22am.Rhys Jones reports: More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer has lashed out at Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, claiming they behave like Donald Trump.The Labour leader launched a blistering attack on the Tories to mark the fourth anniversary of his own party’s electoral wipeout under Jeremy Corbyn.In a pitch to disaffected Conservative voters, he laid out the “complete overhaul” Labour has undergone since 2019. And he said the Tories under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak have “moved in the opposite direction”.Sir Keir said Britain has always been a “practical nation” in the past, even under Tory governments.“But these aren’t Churchillian tourists anymore, if anything they behave more and more like Donald Trump,” he added.The Labour leader said: “They look at the politics of America, and they want to bring it here. It’s all woke, woke, woke, wedge, wedge wedge, divide, divide, divide.“People can’t afford Christmas.”Sir Keir Starmer during a speech in Milton Keynes Sir Keir also attacked the Conservatives’ record on the NHS and crime, saying crimes are going unsolved and people do not know if ambulances will come when called.And he vowed Labour would no longer indulge in “performance art” policies such as the Rwanda scheme, but would indulge in “the mundane stuff, the bureaucratic stuff”.“It’s not about wave machines, or armoured jet skis, or schemes like your wonder you know will never work, it’s about doing the basics better,” Sir Keir said.In a speech from Milton Keynes, the Labour leader appealed directly to Conservative voters, saying: “Only a change of government can bring change to our country.”Sir Keir also used a Q&A after the speech to confirm the party would scrap Mr Sunak’s flagship Rwanda deportation policy.He said it is costing a “fortune”, will not work and is “against our values”. But he opened the door to the party considering a similar scheme, where asylum claims could be processed elsewhere, with successful asylum seekers able to return to the UK.Sir Keir said: “There are various schemes, as you know, around the world where individuals are processed, usually en route to their country of destination, elsewhere.”The Rwanda scheme isn’t one of those. This is a straight deportation scheme in relation to people who’ve already arrived.”Other countries around the world do have schemes where they divert people on the way and process them elsewhere. That’s a different kind of scheme.”And look, I’ll look at any scheme that might work.”Elsewhere in the speech, Sir Keir defended his time serving under predecessor Mr Corbyn. “We did lose our way, we lost our way into that 2019 election four years ago today,” he said.But he went further and appeared to criticise the leadership of other former leaders including Ed Miliband and ex-prime minister Gordon Brown.Asked about his claim that Labour had taken a “leave of absence from our job description”, “not just under Jeremy Corbyn, but for a while”, Sir Keir insisted he was not critiquing any “particular individual”.But said “it is a reflection of the fact that we have lost four elections in a row”, including under Mr Brown in 2010.Tory chairman Greg Holden said: “Once again Sir Keir Starmer showed he is only interested in short-term political positioning, not taking long-term decisions in the national interest.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe rejection of Rishi Sunak’s latest Rwanda bill will plunge his premiership into turmoil.The prime minister has denied that tonight’s result amounts to a vote of confidence in his leadership – but senior Tories have said otherwise.Of his five key pledges to the nation, the promise to “stop the boats” has taken up the most political capital.And MPs who support the Rwanda plan – which would see asylum seekers who arrive in the UK via “irregular routes” such as small boat crossings – believe it is a necessary deterrent.After it was struck down as unlawful by the Supreme Court, Mr Sunak published new planned legislation, entitled the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which would deem Rwanda safe in British law.It will be voted on in the House of Commons this evening and faces being the first bill defeated at its second reading since Margaret Thatcher’s 1986 Shops Bill – which would have ended the regulation of Sunday shopping in England and Wales.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces another long and difficult day, as he bids to see of a major rebellion Who is opposing the bill?The so-called “five families” groups of backbench Tory MPs pose the biggest threat to the bill’s passage.The European Research Group (ERG), New Conservatives, Conservative Growth Group, Common Sense Group, and Northern Research Group have commissioned a “star chamber” of lawyers to determine whether it goes far enough to ensure flights to Rwanda get off the ground.The groups fear that in its current form, the bill would see the policy undermined by a stream of individual court appeals against deportation flights.The ERG, which commissioned the star chamber, said the group only “provides a partial and incomplete solution” and called on Mr Sunak to “pull the bill”.Mr Sunak met with a group of Tory MPs from the right of the party on Tuesday morning to convince them over breakfast to vote for the billMr Sunak met for breakfast with a group of Tory MPs from the right of the party on Tuesday morning in a desperate bid to convince them to vote for the bill. Do they have the numbers?If 29 Tory MPs vote against the bill it will fail, so yes – many more MPs than that have expressed their concerns.But the right-wing groups have not publicly pledged to vote it down, with many planning to let it go through its second reading before trying to introduce amendments later.Abstentions could also see the law chucked out if 57 Conservative MPs decide to vote neither for or against the bill.What happens if Mr Sunak loses?The PM’s ability to govern would be shot and he could either quit, contest a Tory leadership challenge or go to the country by calling a general election.If Mr Sunak quits or choses to fight a leadership contest, challengers would likely include former immigration ministers Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick. Others courting votes on the right of the party could include business secretary Kemi Badenoch and leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt.Most Tory MPs are resigned to Mr Sunak leading the party into the next election, which is expected at some point next year. Yet another change of leader would see the fourth prime minister installed since Boris Johnson won the last election in 2019. The clamour for a general election would be immense.Some in the party, including senior MP Charles Walker, believe Mr Sunak would have to go to the country, adding that the prospect of a third Tory leadership contest in this parliament “leaves me cold”.If Mr Sunak goes straight to the country, he could fight the election on his promise to take tough action to “stop the boats”, using illegal immigration to draw a dividing line with the Labour Party. A win would give a strong democratic mandate to the Rwanda plan, which did not form part of the last Conservative manifesto.But with his party 20 points behind in the polls, a general election is likely to be a situation Mr Sunak will want to avoid.Can he defuse the rebellion?It is unlikely. If the bill passes its second reading tonight with the support of would-be right wing rebels, they will quickly turn their energy to seeking amendments.But any major changes pose two risks for the PM.One is that the Rwandan government has been clear with the UK that if the bill goes any further in disregarding international laws, it will pull out.Any amendments could also see the 100-strong One Nation group turn their backs on the bill, which would see it fall at a future vote.What if the bill gets through the commons?The bill would still face many hurdles, even if MPs approve it tonight. It will face rounds of discussion and debate, as well as a tricky passage through the Lords.And the Labour party has confirmed it will scrap the Rwandan deportation policy, meaning that if it fails to turn Tory fortunes around, it would have a limited time in force anyway. More