Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s Conservatives are facing their worst ever result at the general election and could be left with just 130 seats, according to Professor Sir John Curtice.The country’s top polling guru warned of the bleak situation faced by the Tories as they head into winter with the news dominated by infighting over the prime minister’s Rwanda deportation plan.Prof Curtice said Mr Sunak’s party would be “lucky to win [many] more than 200 seats” and could see an even worse result if its dire poll ratings continued.“If these patterns were to be replicated in a general election, the outcome for the Conservatives could be bleak indeed – maybe as few as 130 seats, the worst outcome in the party’s history,” he wrote for The Sunday Telegraph.The outcome would be even worse than the 165 seats the Tories were left with in 1997, when the party, then led by John Major, was thumped by Tony Blair’s Labour – which won a landslide 179-seat majority.With Labour enjoying a consistent polling lead of close to 20 points, Prof Curtice said voters appear to have “stopped listening” to the Tories on the big issues.He warned Mr Sunak that his recent anti-immigration push had “not gone well”. The elections expert said it looked like the Rwanda bill “could divide the party just as [Theresa] May’s ill-fated Brexit deal did in 2019”.Rishi Sunak is battling to persuade Tory MPs not to rebel on his Rwanda policyOn the major split currently looming in response to Mr Sunak’s plans, Prof Curtice wrote: “Divided parties rarely prosper at the polls. In pursuing their disagreements with Mr Sunak over immigration, Tory MPs should realise they are potentially playing with fire.”He added: “Even though the polls have repeatedly indicated that the government’s Rwanda policy is relatively popular – at least among those who voted Conservative in 2019 – the first polls since this week’s developments suggest they also are unlikely to move the electoral dial.”He continued: “We should not be surprised. Although many 2019 Conservative voters are unhappy about the level of legal and ‘illegal’ immigration, those who feel that immigration has gone up a lot are not especially likely to say they will not vote Conservative again.”There is speculation at Westminster that Mr Sunak may be forced into a snap election in the early part of 2024 if he struggles to get his Rwanda bill through parliament.But cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted that Mr Sunak’s government is “not contemplating” holding an early general election if the Rwanda bill is voted down. Asked if it was an option, the senior Sunak ally told Sky News: “No, we’re not contemplating that.”Some Tory MPs are said to have discussed trying to bring back Boris Johnson A group of unnamed Tory MPs have told The Mail on Sunday that they would like to get rid of Mr Sunak – with some even keen to bring back Boris Johnson as leader.Dubbed the “pasta plotters”, a small group of anti-Sunak MPs and strategists were said to have met at an Italian restaurant to plan “an Advent calendar of s***” for the current Tory leader over the Rwanda issue this December.“Whatever you feel about him, one thing no one can question is [Mr Johnson]’s effectiveness as a campaigner,” one red-wall MP told the newspaper. But with Mr Johnson out of parliament, the so-called pasta plotters are said to be uncertain who could realistically replace Mr Sunak.Damian Green – chair of the One Nation wing – offered a warning to any right-wing rebels pouncing on the Rwanda issue as a way to get rid of Mr Sunak.“Anyone who thinks that what the Conservative Party or the country needs is a change of prime minister is either mad, or malicious, or both,” he told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg.Mr Green added: “It is a very, very small number doing that [plotting to oust Mr Sunak].” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Hundreds of opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party supporters protested Sunday to mark International Human Rights Day, as the country gears up for a general election on Jan. 7 that the opposition says should be held under a non-partisan, caretaker government.The party, led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is boycotting the election, leaving voters in the South Asian nation of 166 million with little choice but to re-elect Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League for a fourth consecutive term.At Sunday’s protest in front of the National Press Club in downtown Dhaka, opposition activists said they do not think a fair and free election can take place under Hasina’s watch. The gathering took place weeks after a massive opposition rally on Oct. 28 turned violent.The party’s decision to boycott the polls comes amid a monthslong crackdown that has reportedly seen hundreds of opposition politicians jailed and critics silenced, an allegation authorities have denied.Demonstrators on Sunday carried banners that read “Human chain of family members of the victims of murder and enforced disappearances” and “We want the unconditional release of all prisoners.”After the Oct. 28 rally, authorities arrested thousands of party leaders and activists including Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir. Many others have gone into hiding, and hundreds have been convicted by courts on charges of violence or subversive acts that the opposition says are politically motivated.New York-based Human Rights Watch in a report last month put the number of arrested opposition activists at 10,000 since Oct. 28 and said that at least 16 people including two police officers died during the period of violence.Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, joint secretary general of Zia’s party, told a video conference from hiding that the government has arrested or punished political leaders and activists under fictitious charges to ensure a lopsided election result.He urged the people to boycott “the stage-managed election” that he said would deepen the country’s political crisis and push it toward danger.“The upcoming one-sided election is not just a renewal of Sheikh Hasina’s power, but a license to destroy Bangladesh,” he said.While critics have slammed the election as a farce, the government has rejected allegations of a crackdown on the opposition and says the polls will be democratically held and inclusive.“Our stand is very clear. Those who are involved in acts of sabotage or arson attacks, those who attacked police and killed them, are being dealt with on specific charges. We clearly reject the claim that there has been any crackdown against the opposition party,” Mohammad A. Arafat, a ruling party lawmaker and member of the International Affairs Committee, told The Associated Press.“It has no relation with the election. It’s a constitutional mandate to hold the election on time. It’s a matter of their choice to join the polls. But they are resorting to violence in the name of protests, rather than joining the race,” he said.The election will be the country’s 12th since it gained independence from Pakistan in 1971.In the 2008 election, the main challenger BNP and its allies won more than 40% of the vote, but lost to Awami League, which got an absolute majority. Subsequent elections took place in 2014 — which Zia’s party boycotted — and again in 2018 under Hasina’s administration, but the opposition rejected the results, saying the election was rigged. Hasina rejected the allegations. This time again, while candidates from 29 out of 44 registered political parties have filed nominations, no one from Zia’s party is contesting the polls. After a review, the country’s Election Commission accepted 1,985 nominations and rejected 731 for a total of 300 constituencies. Media reports say many independent candidates belong to the ruling Awami League party, which has encouraged them to contest the election to make it look competitive.The events have drawn concern from observers at home and abroad over the health of democracy in Bangladesh, even as it transforms into an economic success story under Hasina.Hasina’s administration has faced pressure from Western democracies, especially from the United States, while the United Nations and the European Union have also pressed for a free, fair and inclusive election.“Specifically, we have emphasized that it is important to have free and fair elections that all stakeholders have the ability to participate peacefully. The holding of free and fair elections is the responsibility of everyone — all political parties, voters, the government, the security forces, and the media,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in an email to The Associated Press.Analyst Iftekhar Zaman, the head of the anti-corruption group Transparency International Bangladesh, said the election may be held on time but it will be “non-inclusive” and “morally void.”During the last election in 2018, Joydeb Sana, a private security guard working at a five-story apartment building in the capital, Dhaka, traveled to his ancestral village in southwestern Bangladesh to cast his vote.But on election day, he found that someone else had already cast his vote.“I don’t know who did it. In the end my candidate won the election and Sheikh Hasina became the prime minister. I was happy for that, but I could not vote for my candidate, and that was upsetting,” Sana told the AP.He hopes he can cast his own vote this time.“It’s my right to vote for my preferred candidate. Last time I was deprived of that,” he said. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe MPs who are defeated at the next year’s general election will get taxpayer-funded support to find a new job.House of Commons authorities are examining ways to deliver a new “career transition” scheme for politicians before voters go to the polls in 2024.Officials are looking to pay a recruitment firm to help with CV writing and job coaching, the BBC first reported.A Commons spokesperson confirmed to The Independent the programme was “due to be in place” in time for the next election.It comes in response to report by a committee of MPs that said many departing MPs struggled after leaving parliament – urging a series changes to make the job more attractive to aspiring politicians.The cross-party group recommended that MPs should get medals and more generous redundancy payments in help them after life in parliament.For MPs defeated at the 2019 election, the average loss-of-office payment was £5,250 – equivalent to just under one month of their £84,000 salary.Many Conservative MPs are stepping down, or are expected to lose their seats The committee found that Westminster’s pay-outs compared poorly with comparable countries, with an ousted MP in Germany who has served for 18 years getting £162,000 compensation.“This could be an event with family and friends and / or presentation with a medallion of service,” the MPs in the Commons administration select committee said, in a suggestion which raised eyebrows.While the idea of medals and bigger pay-outs is not thought to be on the table, a document obtained by the BBC shows the Commons authorities do want to place in place a new “budget” for career training support.The scheme could see those losing their seats given access to “on-demand” career coaches and other “networking opportunities”.A Commons spokesperson said the House authorities have “endeavoured to investigate options for a career transition programme for MPs who lose their seat at a general election” in response to the report.“Similar programmes already exist in some other legislatures,” according to the spokesperson said, who said they were unable to comment on specific details.“However final details of the programme are due to be in place in time for the next general election, whenever that is called.”They added: “As with any procurement process, value for money is always sought, whilst ensuring the best possible service for departing members is provided”.Sir Charles Walker, chairman of the admin select committee, said in the report that the work of MPs is “a noble enterprise, and one that should be defended, encouraged and recognised”.“However, it is clear that without the right support for members when they leave parliament, we may well be putting off talented candidates from seeking election to the House of Commons,” he added. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s new Rwanda legislation has been given only a “50 per cent at best” chance of successfully getting flights in the air, according to an official legal assessment for the government.Cabinet minister Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, is said to have been told that the bill leaves a significant risk of the European Court of Human Rights blocking flights.Mr Sunak now faces an ever tougher battle to get divided Tory MPs to back his bill at a crucial vote in parliament on Tuesday, with both right-wingers and moderates unhappy with the legislative plan.It comes as senior Tory Robert Jenrick – who quit as immigration minister over the legislation – has insisted it will fail and accused Mr Sunak of failing to keep his word “to do whatever it takes” to “stop the boats”.Going further than his resignation letter, Mr Jenrick also explicitly called for Britain to quit international treaties such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in an article for The Telegraph.The hardliner called for the UK to “extricate” itself from “complex international frameworks” – warning the Tories of the “red-hot fury” of voters if the party fails on immigration.Mr Sunak is fighting to convince Conservative MPs not to rebel in Tuesday’s crunch vote as he seeks to pass a new legislation in response to the Supreme Court ruling the Rwanda scheme is unlawful.Dozens of MPs on the right want Mr Sunak to go further in disapplying the ECHR. They are also angry that asylum seekers will be able to lodge legal challenges against their deportation based on individual circumstances.Rishi Sunak claimed Tuesday’s vote would not be a ‘confidence’ issue in governmentThe hardline faction – including members of the 35-strong New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group and the European Research Group – are discussing legal advice from its “star chamber” this weekend.More moderate Tories in the One Nation’ group – which boasts around 100 MPs – are concerned about telling courts they must find that the East African nation is “safe”. They are also discussing independent legal advice this weekend.Failure to win Tuesday’s vote could plunge Mr Sunak’s leadership into a fresh crisis. The PM took the middle option by choosing to disapply parts of the Human Rights Act with his bill rather than the European convention.Mr Sunak was warned that he could even face a leadership vote soon if he “antagonised” more MPs into submitting no-confidence letters. Some MPs claimed almost two dozen letters have already been submitted to the Tories’ all-powerful 1922 Committee – which requires 53 of them to hold a vote on his future.Ministers are calling round MPs in a desperate bid to get backing on Tuesday. Tory deputy chairman Rachel Maclean has said the Rwanda vote will amount to a vote of confidence in the government.Former cabinet minister David Davis told The Independent he will vote for the Rwanda bill and expects it to get through the Commons on Tuesday. “Anything else would be madness,” he said.Robert Jenrick has warned of ‘red-hot fury’ of Tory voters No 10 and the Conservative whips are still hopeful the bill will pass its first hurdle on Tuesday. But Tory rebels on both sides of the row are expected to launch attempts to amend the bill in January – when the government stands a greater risk of defeat.Mr Sunak faces the prospect of Tory MPs voting against or abstaining on the bill if their attempts to toughen up the bill – or water it down – fail early next year. It would take just 29 rebel Tories to defeat the government and through Mr Sunak’s premiership into crisis.Veteran Tory MP Henry Smith told The Independent if the government fails to pass the bill it is the “end of the line” for the Conservatives.New legal migration minister Tom Pursglove suggested the government would “engage constructively” and could be open to compromises with would-be rebels in the weeks ahead.Rishi Sunak is hoping to survive immediate crisis by get bill through first stage on Tuesday Ms Prentis’ legal advice, warning of a 50-50 chance of success, centres around the European court in Strasbourg, according to The Times. The court which oversees the ECHR, and helped block flights by granting an interim injunction as it did in June last year.There appears to be disagreement over whether ignoring such injunctions would be a breach of the ECHR. The advice from the Government Legal Department was said to have been signed off by top lawyer Sir James Eadie.Not disputing the advice, a government official said: “We do not comment on or share government legal advice and it would be very wrong for anyone recently departing government to do so.They added: “Ministers are reassured that this Bill goes as far as it can within international law and therefore ensures we can get flights off to Rwanda next year.”One source backed up the report, while another sought to argue the advice was just one of the opinions the government had sought.Former Solicitor General Lord Garnier – who is advising the One Nation group – told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the bill was “political nonsense and legal nonsense”.“It’s trying to define things when there is no evidence for that being the case,” said the influential figure. “It’s rather like a bill that has decided that all dogs are cats.”In his op-ed on Saturday, Mr Jenrick said “some of the country’s finest legal minds” have determined that migrants will be able to lodge legal appeals and that they could be “taken off flights in considerable number”.Sacked home secretary Suella Braverman has led criticism of Sunak’s plan The ally of sacked home secretary Suella Braverman added: “The idea, therefore, that this bill will guarantee all those arriving are detained and swiftly removed is for the birds.”Mr Jenrick also said that the Tories will be treated to “red-hot fury at the ballot box” unless they bring down current levels of legal immigration – which he argued makes integration into UK life “impossible”.He also revealed that he wanted to go further in the recent crackdown on legal migration routes by overhauling the two-year graduate visa route. “Too many universities have fallen into the migration, rather than education business,” he said.Sir Iain Duncan Smith has urged Tory MPs to pass a bill that “get those flights off to Rwanda” – stopping short of an endorsement for the legislation in its current form.The former Tory leader told The Telegraph: “The reality is that we are in a more febrile state than under [Sir] John Major. John Major took us to the election.”And Dominic Raab, the former justice secretary, said MPs “should back the bill, rather than let the best be the enemy of the good” – urging rebels to “tighten up” the legislation at committee stage rather than vote it down on Tuesday.It also emerged that the UK has paid an additional £100m on top of the £140m already paid to Rwanda for the deportation pact. And the government to send an additional £50m next year – which means the total cost so far has more than doubled to hit £290m.Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper slammed the “incredible” costs. “How many more blank cheques will Rishi Sunak write before the Tories come clean about this scheme being a total farce?”Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office, will be grilled by the public accounts select committee on Monday.The Home Office is set to publish an evidence pack next week that will reportedly reject the UN’s refugee agency UNHCR’s claim that Rwanda is an unsafe country. More

Robert Jenrick resigns as immigration minister over Rwanda bill in huge blow to Rishi SunakSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has urged mutinous Tory MPs to “unite or die” ahead of a key Commons vote on his controversial bid to save his party’s ailing plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda.The prime minister harkened back to the first days of his premiership with the call to MPs at a meeting of the 1922 Committee this week, according to The Times, which carried claims that some Cabinet ministers are “on manouevres” in case of an earlier-than-expected Tory leadership race.There are claims that nearly two-dozen MPs have submitted no confidence letters, and in an olive branch to rebels, Mr Sunak is said to be “happy to have conversations” about his Rwanda plan’s future, providing the Bill – disliked by both Tory moderates and hardliners – passes through the Commons.It is a last-ditch bid to get planes in the air after the Supreme Court ruled the government’s previous plans illegal. The legislation gives ministers the powers to disregard sections of the Human Rights Act, but does not go as far as allowing them to dismiss the European Convention on Human Rights.Show latest update
1702133010Ex-minister backs Jenrick’s hardline immigration articleTory former minister Simon Clarke, who weeks ago called for Rishi Sunak to call a snap election if the Lords blocks his emergency Rwanda legislation – has thrown his backing behind Robert Jenrick’s op-ed in the Telegraph today.The Truss-era communities secretary called for “nothing less than a paradigm shift”, as he appeared to back Mr Jenrick’s calls for the UK to abandon the European Convention on Human Rights.Andy Gregory9 December 2023 14:431702130679Rishi Sunak set to be grilled on lockdown doubts at Covid inquiryRishi Sunak is set to be grilled about his controversial Eat Out to Help scheme and his doubts about lockdown curbs when he appears at the Covid inquiry on Monday.The PM – fighting to save his premiership after failing to appease Tory MPs with his Rwanda legislation – will come under pressure to explain his actions as chancellor during the pandemic.Mr Sunak is expected to be questioned about his previous claims that scientific advisers were handed too much power, and his views on the damage done by lockdowns.In an interview during the Tory leadership contest last August, the former chancellor said the “problem” had been: “If you empower all these independent people you’re screwed.”Mr Sunak also told The Spectator that he “wasn’t allowed to talk about the trade-offs” of Covid lockdowns – including its impact on the economy, schools and NHS waiting lists.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 14:041702129205Sunak facing ‘Brexit-style’ struggle like Theresa May, says ex-No 10 officialGavin Barwell, Theresa May’s former chief of staff at No 10, has said the uphill battle faced by Rishi Sunak is similar to the parliamentary Brexit wars while brought down his former boss.“It feels very late 2018, early 2019,” Lord Barwell told The Telegraph – who suggested it was difficult to see how right-wingers and moderates could be reconciled, even if the bill passes the first reading stage on Tuesday.“It’s all a bit Brexit isn’t it?” The Tory peer said on Times Radio. He added: “It feels like the party is back in that ungovernable space, that unleadable space. You’ve got these two wings of the party and it’s very difficult to see where the landing zone is.”Mr Sunak has been warned that he is facing a “Brexit-style” legislative campaign by a group of up to 30 hardliners who will keep pushing for more.“The gang of 30 are using this legislation as a Trojan horse to leave the ECHR and to pick a fight and attack Rishi,” one Tory MP told the i newspaper.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 13:401702127885Iain Duncan Smith urges Tory MPs to pass the bill that gets ‘flights off to Rwanda’Sir Iain Duncan Smith has urged Tory MPs to pass a bill that “get those flights off to Rwanda” – which stops short of an endorsement for Rishi Sunak’s legislation in its current form.The former Tory leader told The Telegraph: “The reality is that we are in a more febrile state than under [Sir] John Major. John Major took us to the election.”“We’ll have had three prime ministers in this period, which is unprecedented really. That means this infighting will carry on, because it’s not settled.A hardliner on immigration, Sir Ian added: “The one way out of this, both electorally and internally, is that we decide collectively that getting those flights off to Rwanda is critical and we pass a law to achieve that.”Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 13:181702126865‘Back the bill’, Dominic Raab tells Tory rebelsDominic Raab has said Conservatives MPs “should back the [Rwanda] bill, rather than let the best be the enemy of the good”.Writing for The Telegraph, the former justice secretary urging rebels to “tighten up” the legislation at committee stage rather than vote it down on Tuesday.Raab said he accepted that the bill “leaves open the possibility that the individual circumstances of a case could render a migrant at particular risk” – but hoped the Supreme Court would need “truly exceptional circumstances to bar removal”.The former deputy PM said he was confident the legislation “prevents the UK courts from relying on interim measures from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg as grounds for blocking removal”.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 13:011702125821Nigel Farage will find it ‘very hard to resist’ political comeback, says allyNigel Farage could soon stage a return to frontline politics by playing a leading role for the Conservatives’ right-wing rivals Reform UK, the party’s leader has said.Richard Tice said the star of ITV’s I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! would find it “very hard to resist” a big comeback ahead of the next year’s general election.Some senior Tories have suggested they would like to see Mr Farage join the Tories – with one MP suggesting he could be given a peerage and made home secretary. However, Mr Tice suggested Mr Farage was keen to take up a prominent role for Reform UK once again, the party he co-founded from the ashes of the Brexit Party.“He needs to make the judgment – does he want to come back full time into politics?” the Reform leader told The Telegraph.Our political correspondent Adam Forrest reports:Andy Gregory9 December 2023 12:431702123145Braverman praises Jenrick for article warning Rwanda vote won’t workSacked home secretary Suella Braverman has praised Robert Jenrick – who this week voluntarily followed her out of the door of the Home Office – for “putting principle before career”, as she shared his Telegraph op-ed warning that Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda legislation is doomed to fail.“He knows the detail. It is very concerning that he can’t defend the Bill,” Ms Braverman said, in a blow to Mr Sunak as he hopes to persuade MPs to back him in Tuesday’s vote.She added: “The public are relying on us to stop the boats. What do we say to them when we pass another law that fails? Time is running out.”Andy Gregory9 December 2023 11:591702122177General election would not be single-issue ballot on immigration, says ex-Tory ministerFormer Tory minister David Lidington has rejected a suggestion that Rishi Sunak should call an early general election if he fails to pass his Rwanda legislation through parliament and seek to make it a single-issue vote on immigration.“There’s a case both for & against an early GE but (whatever PM wanted) can’t see it being a single issue campaign. That’s what Ted Heath discovered in Feb 1974,” he tweeted, referring to the former Tory leader’s decision to call an election seeking to wrest power away from unions.And as Matt Chorley of Times Radio notes, the Tories have been polling lower than Labour on immigration since last September, according to YouGov’s tracker.Andy Gregory9 December 2023 11:421702120205Sunak’s ethics adviser urged to probe whether PM ‘broke ministerial code’ over Rwanda paymentRishi Sunak must be investigated over whether he breached the ministerial code by failing to declare a £100m payment to Rwanda, the Liberal Democrats have urged his ethics adviser Sir Laurie Magnus.The payment – sent to Kigali in April on top of the £140m already paid – was only revealed eight months later in a letter to MPs sent by the Home Office’s top civil servant, Sir Matthew Rycroft, on Thursday.Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine urged Mr Magnus to investigate what appeared to be a “clear breach” of the ministerial code, calling it “outrageous” that the public was “kept in the dark about the true costs of the Rwanda deal for eight months”.“The public deserves transparency, not hushed-up backroom dealings. We need an urgent inquiry to get to the bottom of this,” she said.While Sir Laurie can privately raise matters that could have been breaches of the rules, he cannot launch an investigation without approval from the prime minister.Andy Gregory9 December 2023 11:101702119174ICYMI: Britain facing surge of salmonella cases because of Brexit, union warnsBritain is facing a surge in salmonella cases due to a lack of post-Brexit quality checks on food, a union has warned.The National Farmers Union told The Independent that the UK was seeing recurring cases of salmonella because meat, poultry and eggs have not been checked properly since leaving the EU.It comes as the Food Standards Agency (FSA) said it was investigating a recent rise in cases of salmonella food poisoning linked to poultry from Poland.“A number of the cases have involved the consumption of eggs produced in Poland and used in meals in restaurants and cafes,” said Tina Potter, head of incidents at the FSA.My colleague Alexander Butler has the full report:Andy Gregory9 December 2023 10:52 More

Robert Jenrick resigns as immigration minister over Rwanda bill in huge blow to Rishi SunakSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has urged mutinous Tory MPs to “unite or die” ahead of a key Commons vote on his controversial bid to save his party’s ailing plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda.The prime minister harkened back to the first days of his premiership with the call to MPs at a meeting of the 1922 Committee this week, according to The Times, which carried claims that some Cabinet ministers are “on manouevres” in case of an earlier-than-expected Tory leadership race.There are claims that nearly two-dozen MPs have submitted no confidence letters, and in an olive branch to rebels, Mr Sunak is said to be “happy to have conversations” about his Rwanda plan’s future, providing the Bill – disliked by both Tory moderates and hardliners – passes through the Commons.It is a last-ditch bid to get planes in the air after the Supreme Court ruled the government’s previous plans illegal. The legislation gives ministers the powers to disregard sections of the Human Rights Act, but does not go as far as allowing them to dismiss the European Convention on Human Rights.Show latest update
1702133010Ex-minister backs Jenrick’s hardline immigration articleTory former minister Simon Clarke, who weeks ago called for Rishi Sunak to call a snap election if the Lords blocks his emergency Rwanda legislation – has thrown his backing behind Robert Jenrick’s op-ed in the Telegraph today.The Truss-era communities secretary called for “nothing less than a paradigm shift”, as he appeared to back Mr Jenrick’s calls for the UK to abandon the European Convention on Human Rights.Andy Gregory9 December 2023 14:431702130679Rishi Sunak set to be grilled on lockdown doubts at Covid inquiryRishi Sunak is set to be grilled about his controversial Eat Out to Help scheme and his doubts about lockdown curbs when he appears at the Covid inquiry on Monday.The PM – fighting to save his premiership after failing to appease Tory MPs with his Rwanda legislation – will come under pressure to explain his actions as chancellor during the pandemic.Mr Sunak is expected to be questioned about his previous claims that scientific advisers were handed too much power, and his views on the damage done by lockdowns.In an interview during the Tory leadership contest last August, the former chancellor said the “problem” had been: “If you empower all these independent people you’re screwed.”Mr Sunak also told The Spectator that he “wasn’t allowed to talk about the trade-offs” of Covid lockdowns – including its impact on the economy, schools and NHS waiting lists.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 14:041702129205Sunak facing ‘Brexit-style’ struggle like Theresa May, says ex-No 10 officialGavin Barwell, Theresa May’s former chief of staff at No 10, has said the uphill battle faced by Rishi Sunak is similar to the parliamentary Brexit wars while brought down his former boss.“It feels very late 2018, early 2019,” Lord Barwell told The Telegraph – who suggested it was difficult to see how right-wingers and moderates could be reconciled, even if the bill passes the first reading stage on Tuesday.“It’s all a bit Brexit isn’t it?” The Tory peer said on Times Radio. He added: “It feels like the party is back in that ungovernable space, that unleadable space. You’ve got these two wings of the party and it’s very difficult to see where the landing zone is.”Mr Sunak has been warned that he is facing a “Brexit-style” legislative campaign by a group of up to 30 hardliners who will keep pushing for more.“The gang of 30 are using this legislation as a Trojan horse to leave the ECHR and to pick a fight and attack Rishi,” one Tory MP told the i newspaper.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 13:401702127885Iain Duncan Smith urges Tory MPs to pass the bill that gets ‘flights off to Rwanda’Sir Iain Duncan Smith has urged Tory MPs to pass a bill that “get those flights off to Rwanda” – which stops short of an endorsement for Rishi Sunak’s legislation in its current form.The former Tory leader told The Telegraph: “The reality is that we are in a more febrile state than under [Sir] John Major. John Major took us to the election.”“We’ll have had three prime ministers in this period, which is unprecedented really. That means this infighting will carry on, because it’s not settled.A hardliner on immigration, Sir Ian added: “The one way out of this, both electorally and internally, is that we decide collectively that getting those flights off to Rwanda is critical and we pass a law to achieve that.”Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 13:181702126865‘Back the bill’, Dominic Raab tells Tory rebelsDominic Raab has said Conservatives MPs “should back the [Rwanda] bill, rather than let the best be the enemy of the good”.Writing for The Telegraph, the former justice secretary urging rebels to “tighten up” the legislation at committee stage rather than vote it down on Tuesday.Raab said he accepted that the bill “leaves open the possibility that the individual circumstances of a case could render a migrant at particular risk” – but hoped the Supreme Court would need “truly exceptional circumstances to bar removal”.The former deputy PM said he was confident the legislation “prevents the UK courts from relying on interim measures from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg as grounds for blocking removal”.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent9 December 2023 13:011702125821Nigel Farage will find it ‘very hard to resist’ political comeback, says allyNigel Farage could soon stage a return to frontline politics by playing a leading role for the Conservatives’ right-wing rivals Reform UK, the party’s leader has said.Richard Tice said the star of ITV’s I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! would find it “very hard to resist” a big comeback ahead of the next year’s general election.Some senior Tories have suggested they would like to see Mr Farage join the Tories – with one MP suggesting he could be given a peerage and made home secretary. However, Mr Tice suggested Mr Farage was keen to take up a prominent role for Reform UK once again, the party he co-founded from the ashes of the Brexit Party.“He needs to make the judgment – does he want to come back full time into politics?” the Reform leader told The Telegraph.Our political correspondent Adam Forrest reports:Andy Gregory9 December 2023 12:431702123145Braverman praises Jenrick for article warning Rwanda vote won’t workSacked home secretary Suella Braverman has praised Robert Jenrick – who this week voluntarily followed her out of the door of the Home Office – for “putting principle before career”, as she shared his Telegraph op-ed warning that Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda legislation is doomed to fail.“He knows the detail. It is very concerning that he can’t defend the Bill,” Ms Braverman said, in a blow to Mr Sunak as he hopes to persuade MPs to back him in Tuesday’s vote.She added: “The public are relying on us to stop the boats. What do we say to them when we pass another law that fails? Time is running out.”Andy Gregory9 December 2023 11:591702122177General election would not be single-issue ballot on immigration, says ex-Tory ministerFormer Tory minister David Lidington has rejected a suggestion that Rishi Sunak should call an early general election if he fails to pass his Rwanda legislation through parliament and seek to make it a single-issue vote on immigration.“There’s a case both for & against an early GE but (whatever PM wanted) can’t see it being a single issue campaign. That’s what Ted Heath discovered in Feb 1974,” he tweeted, referring to the former Tory leader’s decision to call an election seeking to wrest power away from unions.And as Matt Chorley of Times Radio notes, the Tories have been polling lower than Labour on immigration since last September, according to YouGov’s tracker.Andy Gregory9 December 2023 11:421702120205Sunak’s ethics adviser urged to probe whether PM ‘broke ministerial code’ over Rwanda paymentRishi Sunak must be investigated over whether he breached the ministerial code by failing to declare a £100m payment to Rwanda, the Liberal Democrats have urged his ethics adviser Sir Laurie Magnus.The payment – sent to Kigali in April on top of the £140m already paid – was only revealed eight months later in a letter to MPs sent by the Home Office’s top civil servant, Sir Matthew Rycroft, on Thursday.Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine urged Mr Magnus to investigate what appeared to be a “clear breach” of the ministerial code, calling it “outrageous” that the public was “kept in the dark about the true costs of the Rwanda deal for eight months”.“The public deserves transparency, not hushed-up backroom dealings. We need an urgent inquiry to get to the bottom of this,” she said.While Sir Laurie can privately raise matters that could have been breaches of the rules, he cannot launch an investigation without approval from the prime minister.Andy Gregory9 December 2023 11:101702119174ICYMI: Britain facing surge of salmonella cases because of Brexit, union warnsBritain is facing a surge in salmonella cases due to a lack of post-Brexit quality checks on food, a union has warned.The National Farmers Union told The Independent that the UK was seeing recurring cases of salmonella because meat, poultry and eggs have not been checked properly since leaving the EU.It comes as the Food Standards Agency (FSA) said it was investigating a recent rise in cases of salmonella food poisoning linked to poultry from Poland.“A number of the cases have involved the consumption of eggs produced in Poland and used in meals in restaurants and cafes,” said Tina Potter, head of incidents at the FSA.My colleague Alexander Butler has the full report:Andy Gregory9 December 2023 10:52 More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is extending an olive branch to disgruntled Tory MPs to stave off a rebellion over his Rwanda plan after the cost of the deportation scheme hit £290m.Ahead of a vote on the policy on Tuesday government sources said they are “happy to have conversations” with rebel MPs about its future, providing the bill passes.The PM is bracing for a backlash from the left and right of the Tory party over an emergency bill deeming the east African nation a safe place to deport asylum seekers.It is a last-ditch bid to get planes in the air after the Supreme Court ruled the government’s previous plans illegal.The legislation gives ministers the powers to disregard sections of the Human Rights Act, but does not go as far as allowing them to dismiss the European Convention on Human Rights.As a result, MPs on the left of Mr Sunak’s party view it as too extreme, while right-wingers say the bill is not tough enough to ensure flights take off.Sunak called an emergency press conference on Thursday regarding the bill Tensions over the bill flared further on Friday as it emerged the cost of the Rwanda plan has more than doubled to hit £290m. Despite not a single asylum seeker being sent to the east African nation, the government has handed Kigali an additional £100m. That came on top of an initial £140m payment, with the government to send an additional £50m next year.In Tuesday’s vote it would take just 29 rebel Tories to defeat the government. Veteran Tory MP Henry Smith told The Independent if the government fails to pass the bill it is the “end of the line” for the Conservatives.And despite the PM insisting Tuesday’s vote is not a vote of confidence in his leadership, Mr Smith said “it’s a vote of sufficient importance” so as to be. Tory deputy chairman Rachel Maclean has also said the Rwanda vote will amount to a vote of confidence in the government. Tory MPs who were due to be away from parliament on Tuesday have been ordered to change their plans for the vote.Senior Tory David Davis dismissed criticism of the scheme’s cost, saying it would be “cheap if it works”. The former Brexit secretary told The Independent he will vote for the Rwanda bill and expects it to get through the Commons on Tuesday. “Anything else would be madness,” he said.The PM’s control over his party has already been stretched by the resignation of former immigration minister Robert Jenrick and his decision to sack ex-home secretary Suella Braverman. Ahead of the vote, new immigration minister Tom Pursglove said the government could be open to compromises with rebel Tory MPs unhappy about the bill. He said ministers “will engage constructively with parliamentarians around any concerns that they have”.The olive branch could stave off a rebellion on Tuesday, with disgruntled MPs voicing their objections and seeking amendments at a later stage of the legislative process.But government sources stressed there is “not a lot of room for manoeuvre” for toughening up the bill, while the PM will not water it down and risk it not working.Mr Smith is backing the Rwanda bill, but said the government “can’t be sure of its majority” and its passage looks tricky.And he said the government has chosen a “risky strategy” by putting so much weight behind the Rwanda scheme.Jonathan Gullis, the right-wing Tory MP for Stoke-on-Trent North, said he is “sceptical” the bill goes far enough to ensure future deportation flights are not thwarted by the courts.He said the bill risks leaving the government “stuck in the courts” facing appeals from every individual asylum seeker it tries to deport. But Mr Gullis said the PM will retain his confidence whatever the outcome of the vote, telling Sky News Mr Sunak “should lead us into the next general election”.It came after the revelation about the spiralling cost of the scheme sparked fury, with Yvette Cooper describing it as “incredible”.The shadow home secretary said: “The Tories’ have wasted an astronomical £290m of taxpayers’ money on a failing scheme which hasn’t sent a single asylum seeker to Rwanda.“How many more blank cheques will Rishi Sunak write before the Tories come clean about this scheme being a total farce?”Home Office permanent secretary Matthew Rycroft set the new figures out in a late night letter to Dame Diana Johnson, chair of the home affairs committee, and Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the public accounts committee.It came just days after he said he had been blocked by ministers from doing so. But Dame Diana and Dame Meg criticised Mr Rycroft, saying they were “disappointed” he had written to them at 9.16pm on Thursday night, showing “an extreme lack of respect”.The pair have summoned him to face a grilling on Monday about whether the Rwanda plan represents good value for taxpayers’ money, ahead of the bill being voted on. More