Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tories are facing an electoral wipeout that would leave them with just 80 seats, the lowest ever total for the Conservative Party, a bombshell new poll shows.Rishi Sunak is on course to lose more than three quarters of the Tories’ seats, the survey of 18,000 voters suggests.As well as spelling near-wipeout for the Conservatives, the shock poll shows seventeen ministers are set to lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will face off at a general election this yearThe poll, by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, showed Sir Keir Starmer on course to win an even bigger landslide than Sir Tony Blair in 1997, with a majority of 254.And the survey, reported by The Daily Mirror, showed Labour’s support among voters at 42 per cent, with a 20-point lead over the Tories on 20 per cent.The survey was conducted using the MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) method that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.It found voters top concerns were health, the economy and immigration, while the most popular policies included building more homes and nationalising utility firms.In total, Labour would win 452 seats, 249 more than currently, with the Conservatives losing 285 seats to hold just 80.The Liberal Democrats and Green Party are also set to make gains, while the poll suggested the SNP could lose eight seats to a resurgent Scottish Labour.The poll will offer some much-needed comfort for Sir Keir after he faced two of the most difficult weeks of his leadership of the Labour Party so far.He has been dogged by claims that he flip-flops on key decisions after the fudged announcement that he was dropping Labour’s key £28bn per year green spending pledge.Labour instead replaced the measure with plans to spend £23.7 billion over the course of the next parliament.He has also been rocked by an antisemitism scandal after Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali was recorded making antisemitic remarks.After some of Mr Ali’s remarks, claiming Israel had allowed the October 7 Hamas terror attacks to go ahead, Sir Keir sought to stand by the Labour candidate.But, after facing a media storm, and further remarks being made public, Sir Keir dropped his support for Mr Ali.Another Labour candidate was then accused of antisemitism for being recorded at the same meeting appearing to refer to “f***ing Israel” and appeared to say that Britons who volunteer to fight for the Israel Defense Forces “should be locked up”.It all came as a separate poll by Savanta showed Labour’s lead over the Tories falling to its lowest since last June. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA third Labour politician who attended a now notorious council meeting which sparked renewed antisemitism concerns within the party has been spoken to by party officials as they investigate what happened.Sir Keir Starmer’s party has been pitched into a deepening row about the handling of antisemitism allegations, with parliamentary candidate Graham Jones suspended on Tuesday, only a day after Labour was forced to suspend and withdraw its backing for Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali. Mr Ali had claimed Israel allowed the 7 October Hamas attack to take place to lay the ground for an invasion of Gaza. He later apologised. At the same meeting, former MP Graham Jones, who had been selected to run for his old Hyndburn seat again, referred to “f***ing Israel” and appeared to say that Britons who volunteer to fight for the Israel Defence Forces “should be locked up”.It has now emerged that Hyndburn councillor Munsif Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, is thought to have been at the gathering where two parliamentary candidates are alleged to have made antisemitic remarks.There is no suggestion that Mr Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, made inappropriate comments at the meeting and no further action has been taken.The meeting has reignited fears of widespread antisemitism within the Labour Party among Jewish members, with some pointing to Israel’s military action in Gaza as having sparked a “huge spike in antisemitism”.Mike Katz, chairman of the Jewish Labour Movement (JLM), called for the party to step up checks on candidates selected before the Hamas terror attacks and training for candidates to be able to recognise and combat antisemitism.He told The Independent: “I think the party should bear in mind that the level of antisemitic conspiracy theory and misinformation on social media has really increased since October 7, and go back over to check again what people have said and what they have posted.”As the fallout from the controversial meeting grew:The SNP threatened to reopen Labour divisions on the Middle East by forcing a Gaza ceasefire motion to be voted on in the CommonsMomentum slammed Labour for suspending “disproportionately Black and brown MPs” over their support for PalestineLabour’s poll lead over the Tories fell to its lowest level since last June as Sir Keir faces one of his most troubling spells since taking over the partyLabour pledged to investigate all allegations of antisemitism and “take it seriously” Mr Katz said: “Obviously a lot of candidates were selected well before then and are out campaigning in their seats.“It is not about political expediency. It is to make sure people understand and recognise antisemitism and discrimination, and are willing to call it out, wherever they see it, as part of their role in promoting community cohesion.”Meanwhile, Dame Louise Ellman, a Jewish former MP who quit Labour in 2019 over antisemitism under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, said “proper scrutiny” had not been done over the candidates.Sir Keir Starmer claimed he took ‘decisive action’ suspending Azhar Ali after his antisemitic comments came to light She said Sir Keir was “a bit slow” to deal with the latest antisemitism crisis, which brought the party “into disrepute”.And, while Dame Louise told Times Radio that Labour has been “doing very well in rooting out antisemitism”, she described the latest scandal as “a setback”.The Campaign Against Antisemitism reminded Labour of its responsibility to train local activists and candidates to spot and tackle antisemitism. It said Labour “in particular” has a duty to do so because of the action plan to drive antisemitism out of the party agreed with the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC).A spokesman told The Independent: “Since we referred Labour to the EHRC and its investigation into the party, it has been clear that all political parties must rigorously vet their officers and candidates. Failure to do so will inevitably lead to scrutiny and scandal, as we have seen twice in Rochdale in as many days.”It came after Martin Forde KC, the lawyer who led a review into antisemitism in the party, said Labour’s handling of the crisis was “shambolic”.Labour initially backed Mr Ali, saying he had fallen for an online conspiracy theory. But the party dramatically dropped him on Monday night after it emerged that he had also blamed “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” for fuelling criticism of a pro-Palestinian MP.Mr Ali will still appear as Labour’s candidate on the Rochdale ballot this month due to a deadline for removing candidates, but he will not be a Labour MP if he wins. The party has suspended Mr Jones pending an investigation and will likely pick a new candidate to contest Hyndburn at the general election.On Tuesday, shadow defence secretary John Healey said Labour will “follow the hard evidence” to ensure anyone who does not meet the standards of the party will be investigated. He said: “Anyone at that meeting, if there is evidence that they have, that people acted or spoke in a way that doesn’t meet the standards, or is incompatible with the values of our Labour Party, they need to report it, provide it and the Labour Party will take it seriously and investigate it. It’s what we do with every case.”Pushed on whether Mr Ali was properly vetted, Mr Healey said the Rochdale candidate was “widely respected” and “widely supported across communities, including the Jewish community in the North West”.The Conservatives have said the furore showed that claims Labour had changed under Sir Keir were “hollow”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email North Macedonia ’s parliament speaker on Wednesday formally set early parliamentary and presidential elections in the spring as the country makes a bid to join the European Union.Following opposition pressure, North Macedonia’s main political parties agreed in December to organize general elections on May 8, two months early. A caretaker government was appointed last month. Whoever forms the next government will face pressure from the European Union to approve unpopular constitutional changes as part of the country’s bid to join the bloc.The main opposition center-right VMRO-DPMNE party had long pressed for early elections, accusing the governing center-left Social Democrats and their junior coalition partners of corruption, nepotism and incompetence.Under the act signed Wednesday by parliament’s top official, Jovan Mitreski, the first round of the presidential election will be on April 24. The second will coincide with the May 8 parliamentary election.North Macedonia, together with neighboring Albania, began EU membership talks in 2022 and has been a candidate to join the bloc since 2005.Among other required membership criteria, the country must change its constitution to recognize an ethnic Bulgarian minority. That’s a highly contentious issue because of the overlapping histories and cultures of North Macedonia and neighboring Bulgaria.Constitutional changes require a two-thirds majority in parliament. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords economic affairs committee on Wednesday 14 February.Inflation unexpectedly held steady last month as food prices fell for the first time in almost two-and-a-half years, official figures show.Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation remained unchanged at 4 per cent in January, lower than the 4.2 per cent that economists had forecast although still double the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.The monthly drop in food prices, of 0.4 per cent, was the first since September 2021, with the cost of bread and cereals, cream crackers and chocolate biscuits falling, the ONS said.While food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are still 7 per cent higher than a year ago, the category saw the slowest rate of increase since April 2022.On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by 0.4 per cent between December and January. More

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsInflation unexpectedly held steady last month as food prices fell for the first time in almost two-and-a-half years, official figures show.Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation remained unchanged at 4% in January, lower than the 4.2% that economists had forecast although still double the Bank of England’s 2% target, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.The monthly drop in food prices, of 0.4%, was the first since September 2021, with the cost of bread and cereals, cream crackers and chocolate biscuits falling, the ONS said.While food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are still 7% higher than a year ago, the category saw the slowest rate of increase since April 2022.On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by 0.4% between December and January.Most of this drop was down to a 1.3% decrease in bread and cereal prices – the largest in that category since May 2021.The ONS said seven out of 11 types of food and non-alcoholic beverages it tracks put downward pressure on the inflation figure last month.The monthly drop in food prices, of 0.4%, was the first since September 2021Despite the most recent fall, food and non-alcoholic beverages are around 25% more expensive than they were in January 2022. In the entire decade before that, prices only rose around 10%.ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation was unchanged in January, reflecting counteracting effects within the basket of goods and services.“The price of gas and electricity rose at a higher rate than this time last year due to the increase in the energy price cap, while the cost of second-hand cars went up for the first time since May.“Offsetting these, prices of furniture and household goods decreased by more than a year ago and food prices fell on the month for the first time in over two years.“All of these factors combined resulted in no change to the headline rate this month.”Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “Inflation never falls in a perfect straight line, but the plan is working. We have made huge progress in bringing inflation down from 11%, and the Bank of England forecast that it will fall to around 2% in a matter of months.”Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “After 14 years of economic failure, working people are worse off. Prices are still rising in the shops, with the average household’s costs up £110 a week compared to before the last election.“Inflation is still higher than the Bank of England’s target and millions of families are struggling with the cost of living.“The Conservatives cannot fix the economy because they are the reason it is broken. It’s time for change. Only Labour has a long-term plan to get Britain’s future back by delivering more jobs, more investment and cheaper bills.” More

Keir Starmer says he took ‘tough’ and ‘decisive’ action to suspend Azhar AliSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA third Labour politician has been spoken to during the party’s investigation into the meeting in Rochdale at which by-election candidate Azhar Ali was recorded making antisemitic remarks.There is no suggestion that Hyndburn councillor Munsif Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, made inappropriate comments at the meeting and no further action has been taken, it is understood. It comes as Sir Keir Starmer faces questions over his party’s “shambolic” U-turn on withdrawing support for Mr Ali, who was initially backed by the party for his swift apology and retraction of claims that Israel had allowed the 7 October Hamas attack as a pretext to invade Gaza.But in a dramatic climbdown on Monday night, the party said its support for him had been withdrawn following “new information about further comments”, and he was suspended from the party pending an investigation.The Guido Fawkes website then published another recording in which Hyndburn candidate Graham Jones referred to “f***ing Israel” and said Britons who fight for the Israel Defence Forces should be locked up”. He was swiftly suspended pending investigation.Show latest update 1707922053George Galloway: The political firebrand aiming for victory in the Rochdale by-electionThe suspension of Labour’s Rochdale by-election candidate has opened the door to a controversial possibility, George Galloway’s return to parliament.It means Labour’s 10,000 majority in the late Sir Tony Lloyd’s seat is in peril, and a return for Mr Galloway is increasingly on the cards.The political firebrand is standing for the Workers Party of Britain in opposition to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s position on the war in Gaza.Our political correspondent Archie Mitchell takes a look at the candidate’s history and political aims here:Andy Gregory14 February 2024 14:471707920919Opinion | Rochdale is a disaster for Labour – but the Conservatives are in trouble, tooIn his latest column, our associate editor Sean O’Grady notes that “the people of Rochdale obviously deserve better than the current chaos over their next member of parliament, however short that term of office may turn out to be”. He writes: More than half of those who voted in 2019, hardly a vintage year for Labour, chose the now-late Tony Lloyd, a distinguished public servant. Yet the party has somehow contrived to provide the electorate with a disgraced and disowned replacement whose name will still appear on the ballot paper.Less well reported is how a similar fate has befallen Rochdale’s Green candidate, who is no longer campaigning or being backed by his erstwhile party after making “regrettable” social media posts “a number of years ago”. It’s a circus, and the most chaotic of elections in years.The constituency has the additional and very special misfortune of having George Galloway wandering its streets stirring up trouble. Locals could opt for Simon Danczuk, their former Labour MP now running for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, but Danczuk has a somewhat troubled history himself. Of course, they could vote Liberal Democrat, but the once-powerful movement in the area has suffered greatly from the now disgraced reputation of its famous leader, the late Cyril Smith MP. As I say, it’s a circus.Somewhat lost in all this is the rather salient fact that the last party anyone seems to want to vote for in Rochdale is the Conservatives. The Tories should be making hay – but they’re never mentioned.Andy Gregory14 February 2024 14:281707917604Labour controversy leaves result in Rochdale by-election hugely uncertainVoters go to the polls in the Rochdale by-election at the end of the month, with the result now hugely uncertain following the Labour decision to drop support for Mr Ali.Also running in the constituency are former Labour MP Simon Danczuk, now the Reform Party candidate, and George Galloway, of the Workers Party of Britain, who is campaigning against Labour’s stance on Gaza.If elected, Mr Ali will sit as an independent MP and will not receive the party whip.The decision means that Labour will also need to find a new candidate to contest the seat at the upcoming general election.Andy Gregory14 February 2024 13:331707916413Report highlights past comments by Labour frontbenchers criticising IsraelThe Telegraph is now highlighting other comments about Israel made by Labour MPs over the last few years, including two shadow front-benchers, Thangham Debbonaire and Shabana Mahmood.Ms Debbonaire is reported to have said in 2015 that selling arms to Israel was a “grave concern” and accused the Jewish state of violating international law, whilst Ms Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, urged thousands of people to “boycott Israeli goods” and bombard their MPs at their constituency surgeries back in 2014.The Labour party has been approached for comment.Zoe Grunewald14 February 2024 13:131707915159Labour pledges to investigate antisemitism allegations as row deepensThe shadow defence secretary has said Labour will “follow the hard evidence” to ensure anyone who does not meet the standards of the party will be investigated.John Healey today urged anyone else at the meeting in Rochdale who witnessed antisemitism or unacceptable comments to report it to the party.Our political correspondent Zoe Grunewald has the full report:Andy Gregory14 February 2024 12:521707913619Dozens of protesters descend on Tory MP’s home accusing him of being ‘complicit in genocide’Around 80 activists gathered outside Tobias Ellwood’s home in Dorset on Monday, holding flags, placards, and a megaphone, remaining there for several hours, with police called to the scene. Protesters descend on MP’s home accusing him of being ‘complicit in genocide’Andy Gregory14 February 2024 12:261707910857No suggestion of wrongdoing by Labour councillor spoken to about Rochdale meetingIt is understood there is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Hyndburn councillor Munsif Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, after he was spoken to by party officials investigating the Rochdale meeting.Mr Dad is understood to have been spoken to as part of the information-gathering process into who was in attendance at the meeting. Andy Gregory14 February 2024 11:401707908524Third Labour politician ‘spoken to’ over Rochdale meetingA third politician in Rochdale believed to have attended the Rochdale meeting at which Azhar Ali’s controversial comments were recorded has been “spoken to” by Labour officials, Sky News reports.It is not clear whether Hyndburn councillor Munsif Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, made any contribution to the meeting and no further action has been taken, according to the broadcaster.The Independent is approaching the party for more information.Andy Gregory14 February 2024 11:021707905793Shapps claims antisemitism remains ‘a cancer in the Labour Party’The Tories have seized upon on the crisis hitting Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, saying it showed the party had not really changed and there was still the “cancer” of antisemitism at its heart.Defence secretary Grant Shapps told the Daily Telegraph: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that racism against Jewish people remains a cancer in the Labour Party. Keir Starmer is only acting now out of political expediency because he has been under media pressure, not out of principle. That’s weak leadership.”Andy Gregory14 February 2024 10:161707904680Labour think-tank boss apologises for saying smuggling gangs should be shipped to ScotlandThe director of an influential Labour think-tank has apologised after suggesting the government should put people-smugglers on a barge and ship it to the north of Scotland.Fuelling tensions just days ahead of Scottish Labour’s annual conference, Josh Simons apologised for his “poorly judged comment made in jest” – which was denounced as “stupid” and “cringe” by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.Speaking to LBC on Monday, Mr Simons – whose group Labour Together has close links to Sir Keir Starmer’s top team – said his main concern with Rishi Sunak’s ailing policy of sending asylum-seekers to Rwanda “is not actually the human rights implications of it”.“My problem with Rwanda is it won’t work, so the question is what are you going to do instead? … Why don’t you send the smuggler gangs and put them on the barge that has been set aside for the asylum seekers, and then ship the barge up to the north of Scotland for all I – you know, who cares?”Andy Gregory14 February 2024 09:58 More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Former populist Prime Minister Andrej Babis’ retrial started Wednesday after an appeals court dismissed a previous ruling acquitting him of fraud charges in a $2 million case involving European Union subsidies.In September, Prague’s High Court canceled the lower court’s decision and ordered the case to be retried at Prague’s Municipal Court.The case centered around a farm known as the Stork’s Nest, which received EU subsidies after its ownership was transferred from the Babis-owned Agrofert conglomerate of around 250 companies to Babis’ family members. Later, Agrofert again took ownership of the farm.The subsidies were meant for medium- and small-sized businesses and Agrofert wouldn’t have been eligible for them. The conglomerate later returned the subsidy.Prague’s Municipal Court also acquitted in January Babis’ former associate, Jana Nagyova, who signed the subsidy request.The former premier pleaded not guilty and repeatedly said the charges against him were politically motivated.The prosecution asked on Wednesday for suspended sentences, possible for such a crime in the Czech Republic, and fines for the two. It was not immediately clear when the verdict would be announced.Babis, a billionaire, is currently part of the country’s opposition after his populist ANO centrist movement lost the 2021 parliamentary election. He also contended for the largely ceruminous post of president in January last year but lost to Petr Pavel, a retired army general. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailFake audio clips of Sadiq Khan criticising Remembrance weekend events and encouraging pro-Palestinian marches nearly caused “serious disorder”, the London mayor has said.The so-called deepfake material shared on social media had an AI simulation of Mr Khan’s voice saying he did not care “about the Remembrance weekend” and suggesting the commemorations be postponed to allow for a pro-Palestinian march to go ahead.Mr Khan told BBC Radio 4’s Why Do You Hate Me? podcast that current legislation is not “fit for purpose” and the audio creator “got away with it” after the Metropolitan Police said the material did not “constitute a criminal offence”.“We almost had serious disorder,” the Labour mayor said, adding that other scenarios such as close elections and referendums might also be targeted by people spreading fake or manipulated material.What was being said was a red rag to a bull for the far-right and othersSadiq Khan, mayor of LondonHe added: “What was being said was a red rag to a bull for the far-right and others.“But what concerned me the most was if you’re an innocent listener of this.“Because it’s a secret undercover recording – in inverted commas – because it sounds like me, because of the timing and the context.”The pro-Palestinian march began hours after the two minutes’ silence on Saturday November 11 and was met with resistance from counter-protesters, who clashed with police.Some 120 people – mostly far-right counter-protesters – were arrested.The commemorations had already been a source of political tension.Then-home secretary Suella Braverman accused the Met Police of “playing favourites” after its commissioner, Sir Mark Rowley, said the force did not have sufficient intelligence to ban the rally.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had labelled pro-Palestinian marches elsewhere in London “disrespectful”.Officers continue to review material and content related to this and we are also consulting with colleagues from the CPS given this relates to very new and emerging technologiesMetropolitan Police spokespersonMr Khan said neither he nor the police had been contacted by the social media sites on which the audio had gone viral.TikTok told the BBC it removes deepfake content and “does not allow synthetic media that contains the likeness of any real private figure”.On February 6, Meta announced it would label images posted on Facebook and Instagram which were created by AI.But former deputy prime minister Sir Nick Clegg, now president of global affairs for Meta, said this would not yet apply to audio or video content, for which users may voluntarily disclose AI assistance.A Met Police spokesperson said: “On Friday November 10, we were made aware of a video featuring artificial audio of the mayor.“Specialist officers carried out an initial review of this video and assessed that it did not constitute a criminal offence.“However, officers continue to review material and content related to this and we are also consulting with colleagues from the CPS given this relates to very new and emerging technologies.” More