Australians remain supportive of the US alliance, but they are viewing it much more critically than before.
And many are more concerned about American behaviour under the Trump administration, while softening their views somewhat on China.
In a new poll of 2,045 people conducted by Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, 54% said they were concerned about US interference in Australia, a jump of nearly 20 points since 2021.
This narrows the gap with the level of concern about interference from China and Russia, which has steadied around 64%.
And for the first time in the five years we’ve been conducting this poll, more people think the United States (57%) rather than China (51%) would force Australia to pick sides in the rivalry between the two.
This is a striking shift that shows Australians are aware pressure can come from allies, as well as rivals. Nearly two-thirds of respondents think the second Trump presidency would make conflict with China more likely.
Even views of economic behaviour have flipped. For the first time, more Australians believe the US uses trade to punish countries politically (72%, up from 36% last year) than China (70%).
Rising support for defence spending
Broadly speaking, the poll shows Australians’ views of China have softened since 2021. Concern and mistrust remain widespread, but have eased.
Two-thirds of Australians see China as a security concern, though this is the lowest level in five years. Mistrust of the Chinese government has also fallen, from 76% in 2021 to 64% today.
And yet, regional flashpoints remain a focus. The South China Sea is seen as a major source of tension in the region, with 72% of respondents saying China’s actions there threaten Australia’s interests.
Most back cooperation, including joint patrols, with partners like the Philippines, Japan and the US, to maintain stability.
This heightened sense of risk continues to shape how people think about defence. Support for higher defence spending has reached 72% – the highest its ever been in our poll – though it drops considerably when trade-offs such as health or education spending are mentioned (55%).
Half of Australians think the plan to buy nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS, the defence pact with the US and the United Kingdom, will make the country safer, while only one in four disagrees.
The USS Minnesota, a Virginia-class fast attack submarine, off the coast of Perth in March 2025.
Collin Murty/AFP Pool/AAP
Views on Taiwan have remained steady. Just 37% of Australians would support sending troops to defend Taiwan if China attacked, with most preferring neutrality or non-military engagement.
In a scenario where the US was drawn into a conflict with China over Taiwan, opinions are evenly split: 50% would favour Australia staying neutral, while 47% would back supporting the US.
China policy influencing more people’s votes
Overall, though, the softening of Australian views towards China signals people are seeing the need to balance the country’s values and interests when it comes to its number one trading partner.
Australians continue to see the economic relationship with China as both vital and risky.
Seven in ten respondents now say Australia should continue building ties with China, up ten points from last year.
And concern about over-dependence on China has dropped from 80% in 2021 to 66%, while those who see the relationship as representing “more risk than opportunity” has fallen from 53% to 39%.
Yet, Australians continue to support certain guardrails to safeguard the economy and national security.
Support for the federal government’s decision to end the Port of Darwin lease, held by the Chinese company Landbridge, is strong at 75%.
And two-thirds of respondents favour limiting all foreign investment in critical minerals, with even higher agreement (74%) when the question refers specifically to China.
An overwhelming majority (82%) draw a clear distinction between their views of the Chinese government and Australians of Chinese heritage. Yet, suspicion persists beneath the surface.
Around four in ten (38%) believe Australians of Chinese background could be mobilised by Beijing to undermine Australia’s interests and social cohesion, while 28% disagree, a durable minority view over five years.
Australians are clearly paying closer attention to how their leaders manage relations with China, too. Foreign policy has rarely shaped how Australians vote, yet 37% of respondents said China policy influenced their vote in the 2025 federal election, up ten points from the previous election in 2022.
Taken together, the findings from our survey show Australians have become more comfortable managing a complex and often tense relationship with China, seeing it as both an economic partner and strategic competitor.
And for the first time this year, this measured outlook extended to the United States, which is now seen as both ally and source of pressure.
The result is a more assured national mood, one that is realistic about risk yet confident in Australia’s ability to steer its own course in a contested world. More
