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    What does the US Congress want with Australia’s eSafety commissioner?

    In the lead-up to the much-discussed social media ban taking effect, Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant is often in the headlines.

    For all the attention she’s been getting, Inman Grant probably didn’t expect any of it to come from a foreign government committee, calling her to answer for a so-called “censorship regime”.

    But the US House Committee on the Judiciary has asked her to appear before it to testify about laws governing the internet.

    Chair of the committee, Republican Jim Jordan, was blunt in his request. In a letter to the commissioner, he wrote:

    as a primary enforcer of Australia’s OSA [Online Safety Act] and noted zealot for global take-downs, you are uniquely positioned to provide information about the law’s free speech implications […]

    While it seems an unusual move, censorship has grown into a hot-button issue in the United States. Inman Grant finds herself at the centre of a perfect storm of rhetoric, politicking and fierce American individualism.

    Does she have to testify?

    The committee has no jurisdiction over the activities of the Australian government. Indeed, it does not even have jurisdiction over US-Australian diplomatic relations, which are the provenance of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

    The Judiciary Committee can call anyone it wants to come and testify at a hearing, but potential witnesses outside the US cannot be compelled to do so. This means Inman Grant can decide whether she wants to appear.

    Jordan, the committee’s chair, is a member of the House Freedom Caucus: a formal group of around 45 mostly libertarian conservatives in the Republican Party in the House.

    The caucus does not necessarily represent the views of most Republicans. It has often been in conflict with House Republican leadership.

    Mounting cynicism

    The issue of internet censorship is fraught in US politics. At the height of the COVID pandemic, this issue became even more heated and controversial.

    Many Americans were very upset to learn the Biden administration worked with Facebook to censor posts about the pandemic. Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, who testified before the Judiciary Committee about this issue last year, has vowed his company would never do so again.

    On his first full day in office this year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning government from censoring social media.

    The backlash from Americans against any kind of censorship has at least two sources. The first the generalised resistance to taking any kind of direction from the government.

    Americans don’t want to be told “no” by their government. Whether it’s guns, drugs, gambling, abortion, gay marriage or even seatbelts, Americans don’t want to be told what to do (although after a few years of clever advocacy, Americans accepted the need to wear seatbelts).

    The idea that their own government would censor their social media posts – no matter how wrong that post might be on the facts or how counterproductive to the public interest – is anathema to many Americans.

    Second, the backlash against the US government, specifically for actions taken during the COVID pandemic, has been fairly broad. Americans have criticised mask mandates, social distancing, working from home, and other measures taken to reduce exposure to the coronavirus.

    Republican Congressman Jim Jordan chairs the House Judiciary Committee.
    Alex Brandon/AP

    While there certainly has been a lot of disinformation regarding COVID, the policies of and information from the US government itself during the pandemic have been widely criticised as ineffective or wrong-headed.

    The confusing politics and fraught policies from the pandemic era have made many Americans – particularly represented by the Freedom Caucus – much more sceptical of government actions generally.

    It’s against this backdrop that politicians like Jordan cast a wide net in the quest against censorship, real and imagined.

    Ghosts of disputes past

    Of course, many of the large social media platforms and internet technology companies are American (X, Meta, Google and Amazon, among others).

    The people who run these companies have generally made a point of getting along with Trump and his administration. They are often seen funding his initiatives and supporting his policies.

    No doubt they also would have done this if Kamala Harris had won the presidency.

    Because VPN (virtual private network) technology can allow individual users to escape national restrictions, some foreign governments have asked American companies to take down all posts globally on a certain topic.

    This is what Inman Grant did in the commission’s case against X, owned by former Trump administration figurehead Elon Musk. The commission wanted video of Wakeley church stabbing in Sydney removed everywhere, not just in Australia. eSafety ultimately dropped the case in 2024.

    Read more:
    Elon Musk vs Australia: global content take-down orders can harm the internet if adopted widely

    Jordan cites this case in his letter to the commissioner. It clearly struck a sour note.

    These sorts of requests, if granted, affect Americans because they wouldn’t have access to those posts. Libertarians in particular do not react well to this possibility, and that means it won’t land well with Congress.

    The position of the House Judiciary Committee does not represent American foreign policy. Jordan, however, is an influential member of Congress and generally friendly with Trump. Jordan’s advocacy may come to impact Trump’s foreign policy, but for the time being, Inman Grant doesn’t have too much to worry about. More

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    Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s Reign of Terror: A Legacy of Violence and Exploitation

    Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is weakening the societal structure of Pakistan. They are constantly attacking civilians while ignoring the standards and ethics of society. On October 7, 2025, two government officials, Safi Ullah and Shah Khalid, and two teachers, Rafi Ullah and Nisar Ali Shah, were abducted in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These kidnappings, which TTP Commander… Continue reading Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s Reign of Terror: A Legacy of Violence and Exploitation
    The post Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s Reign of Terror: A Legacy of Violence and Exploitation appeared first on Fair Observer. More

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    Economic forecasts point to a Democrat win in the 2026 US midterm elections

    The resounding victories in recent elections by Democrats Zohran Mamdani in New York, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey has reinvigorated the party after a dismal year since Donald Trump became president.

    The victories were not a mandate for a sharp ideological shift to the left. This may be true for Mamdani, but it is not for Spanberger and Sherrill, since both are mainstream centrist Democrats. The main reason for the victories can be seen in the chart below.

    Trends in presidential job approval and Donald Trump’s handling of the economy 2025:

    Paul Whiteley/YouGov, Author provided (no reuse)

    The data comes from successive polls in the United States conducted by YouGov on behalf of the Economist magazine. All three candidates focused on the issue of the US economy which proved to be a winning strategy since it is clear the economy strongly affects Donald Trump’s job approval ratings.

    As the president’s ratings on the economy decline, so does his job approval ratings. The result is that the Republicans took the blame for failing to deal with the issue.

    The midterm Congressional elections in the US are due to take place in November 2026. Given the strong relationship between the economy and support for the president, it is interesting to examine how the economy is likely to influence support for the Democrats in those elections.

    To investigate this, we can look at elections to the House of Representatives over a long period, given that they occur every two years.

    The graph below compares the number of House seats won by the Democrats and economic growth in the US in all 40 House elections since 1946. Economic growth is weighted so that the Democrats benefit from high growth when they control the House but are penalised by this when the Republicans are in control.

    This also works in reverse with low growth producing a poor electoral performance for the party when Democrats are in charge and a good performance when the Republicans are in control.

    The relationship between economic growth and House seats won by Democrats 1946 to 2024:

    Federal Researve Bank of St Louis/Paul Whiteley, Author provided (no reuse)

    The impact of the economy on voting in these elections is clearly quite strong, but the number of House seats won declines as the party’s majority gets larger. This is what is known as a “ceiling” effect meaning that when the majority is very large it is difficult to win more seats even in a thriving economy.

    But this relationship can nonetheless be used to develop a forecasting model of the seats likely to be captured by the party in midterm elections next year.

    When forecasting seats, an additional factor to consider is the inertia of party support over successive elections. If the Democrats did well in one year, they were likely to do well two years later.

    For example, in 2008 when Barack Obama won the presidential election, the Democrats captured 233 House seats and the Republicans 202. In the following midterm election in 2010 the party won 257 seats while the Republicans won 178 and so the Democrats retained control of the House.

    At the moment the House has a Republican majority of 219 against 213 Democrats. So Republican control is quite vulnerable to a surge in support for the Democrats.

    Multiple regression analysis

    The forecasting model involves a multiple regression analysis. This uses several variables to predict the behaviour of a specific variable – in this case the number of House seats won by the Democrats.

    In addition to the two variables already mentioned, approval ratings and the performance of the economy, the fact that the incumbent president is a Republican is included in the modelling as well since this influences the vote for the Democrats.

    We know the number of House seats from the 2024 election and the fact that Trump is a Republican, so to forecast Democrat House seats we need a prediction for economic growth in 2026.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis provides data which forecasts growth in the US economy up to 2028. It predicts that growth in real terms will be 1.8% in 2026 – and when this is included in the modelling, the overall forecast from these variables is 80% accurate.

    If a variable is a perfect predictor of House seats it would score 1.0 and if it failed to predict any seats at all it would score 0. The impact of growth on seats when the Democrats controlled the House was 0.75, the inertia effect of past Democrat seats was 0.26 and Trump’s presidency was 0.19.

    Low growth boosts Democrats’ prospects

    Clearly economic growth dominates the picture showing that low growth rates next year will strengthen the Democrat challenge. This is likely to happen since a recent IMF report suggests that US growth is likely to slow next year.

    Actual and predicted House seats in elections 1946 to 2026:

    The Presidency Project/Paul Whiteley, Author provided (no reuse)

    The third chart shows the relationship between Democratic House seats predicted by the model and the actual number of seats won by the party. The predictions track the actual number of Democrat House seats fairly closely and so the forecast should be reasonably accurate

    It should be noted that all forecasting models are subject to significant errors. As the chart shows, the predicted number of seats is not the same as the actual number and if something unforeseen happens the predictions could be wrong. That said, however, the forecast is that the Democrats will win 223 seats – an increase of ten over their performance in 2024. This will give them enough to hand them control of the House. More

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    The Southern Transitional Council: Countering Extremism and Securing Maritime Stability in Yemen

    The Southern Transitional Council (STC) and its affiliated security formations represent the most effective indigenous partner in southern Yemen in the fight against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State – Yemen Province (ISY). Despite limited resources and inconsistent international backing, STC-aligned forces remain on the front lines, facing relentless attacks… Continue reading The Southern Transitional Council: Countering Extremism and Securing Maritime Stability in Yemen
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    Marching to Nowhere: America’s Unanswered Call for Accountability

    On October 18, the people marched and protested, nearly seven million of them. That is around 2% of the population of the entire United States of America. That is a whole lot of pissed off people. Then, a little over two weeks later, on November 4, a lot more people than expected voted in a… Continue reading Marching to Nowhere: America’s Unanswered Call for Accountability
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    Congress is Trying to Gut State Agriculture Laws

    The provisions of the 2018 US Farm Bill have been extended again, following another government shutdown — the longest in history. It’s the third year in a row that Congress has kicked the can down the road by failing to pass a new comprehensive bill addressing America’s agricultural economy. But if there’s one silver lining… Continue reading Congress is Trying to Gut State Agriculture Laws
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    The Blast in Delhi: Lessons, Warnings and India’s Strategic Crossroads

    “Terrorists choose their moments with precision; nations fall only when they fail to read the message hidden in those moments.” The blast in Delhi at 7 pm on November 10, 2025, arrived without warning, tearing through the rhythm of an ordinary day, killing at least eight to 13 people and injuring 20 to 30 others,… Continue reading The Blast in Delhi: Lessons, Warnings and India’s Strategic Crossroads
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