Philippa Kaur

A new federal Resolve poll has found 61% of respondents would struggle to afford an expense of a few thousand dollars, compared to just 24% who said they would not. The 37-point margin is the highest since Resolve began asking this question in February 2023.

When this question was last asked in December 2024, the margin was 50–36%.

On who to blame for rising living costs, 42% blamed the federal government, 16% global factors, 11% state governments, 7% the Reserve Bank and 7% businesses. In the next six months, 42% thought the economic outlook would get worse, 20% said it would improve and 29% said it would stay the same.

The poll for Nine newspapers – conducted between November 4-8 from a sample of 1,804 people – also gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the October Resolve poll.

Primary votes were 33% Labor (down one), 29% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up one), 12% One Nation (steady), 7% independents (down two) and 6% others (down one).

By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 54.5–45.5%, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Despite Labor’s drop on voting intentions, Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved six points to net zero, with 44% both giving him a good and poor rating.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s net approval was down two points to -7. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 39–25% (40–23% previously).

Labor led the Liberals on economic management by 31–29% (29–28% in October). But on keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 28–27%, reversing a 28–24% Labor lead in October.

When asked their most important issue, 42% of respondents said cost of living, with no other issue reaching double digits.

This poll was taken after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on October 29 that inflation in the September quarter rose 1.3%, its highest quarterly increase since March 2023.

There has also been a surge in the popularity of right-wing to far-right politicians since December 2024.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net likeability increased 21 points to +8, National MP Barnaby Joyce’s net likeability increased 14 points to -8 and Liberal MP Andrew Hastie’s net likeability increased four points to +8.

Unlike the late October Newspoll, this new poll did not show a surge for One Nation. Ley’s net approval in this poll is far better than in Newspoll (-7 vs -33).

Andrew Hastie leaves during question time at Parliament House.
Lukas Coch/AAP

Labor still far ahead in NSW Resolve poll

A NSW state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald – conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of more than 1,000 people – gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down one since September), the Coalition 28% (steady), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 15% (up four) and others 11% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but primary votes suggest little change from September’s estimate of 59–41% to Labor. The next NSW election will be held in March 2027.

Despite Labor’s continued dominance on voting intentions, Labor Premier Chris Minns slumped to his lowest preferred premier lead this term over Liberal leader Mark Speakman. Minns led by 31–19%, down from 37–16% in September.

Minns’ net likeability was up one point to +14, and has remained roughly steady since recovering from a slump to +10 in December 2024.

Speakman’s net likeability was up two points to +3, continuing a rebound from a low of -3 in April.

Coalition retains narrow lead in Victorian DemosAU poll

A Victorian DemosAU state poll – conducted between October 21–27 from a sample of 1,016 people – gave the Coalition a 51–49% lead, unchanged from an early September DemosAU poll.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one), 26% Labor (steady), 15% Greens (steady) and 22% for all Others (up one).

Opposition Leader Brad Battin led Labor Premier Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 40–32% (37–32% previously). The Victorian election will be held in November 2026.

Upper house voting intentions were 30% Coalition, 21% Labor, 14% Greens, 11% One Nation, 5% Family First, 4% Libertarian and 3% Animal Justice. The combined vote for the Coalition and Labor is an unrealistic 12 points lower in the upper house than in the lower house.

All 40 of Victoria’s upper house seats will be elected in eight five-member electorates using proportional representation with preferences.

Liberals increase lead in Tasmanian DemosAU poll

A Tasmanian DemosAU state poll – conducted between October 16–27 from a sample of 1,021 people – gave the Liberals 41% of the vote (39.9% at the July election), Labor 24% (25.9%), the Greens 15% (14.4%), independents 14% (15.3%), the Shooters 2% (2.9%) and others 4%.

Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate is not applicable. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff led Labor leader Josh Willie by 46–34% as preferred premier.

Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff during question time at Parliament House in Hobart.
Chris Kidd/AAP

Respondents were asked if they had positive, neutral or negative views of various Tasmanian politicians.

Rockliff was at net +5, but Deputy Premier Guy Barnett was at net -14 and Treasurer Eric Abetz at net -19.

Willie was at net -5, with former Labor leader Dean Winter much worse at net -33. Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff was at net -20.

Queensland byelection on November 29

A byelection for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will occur on November 29 after the Katter’s Australian Party MP, Nick Dametto, resigned to run for mayor of Townsville.

At the 2024 election, Dametto defeated the Liberal National Party’s Annette Swaine by 63.2–36.8%, from primary votes of 46.4% KAP, 28.2% LNP, 14.0% Labor, 4.6% One Nation, 3.6% Legalise Cannabis and 3.2% Greens.

The KAP, LNP and Labor have all announced candidates for the byelection, with others likely to follow.

US government shutdown set to end

For most legislation to pass the United States Senate, 60 votes out of the 100 senators are needed to end a “filibuster”. Republicans control the Senate by 53–47.

On Sunday, eight Democrats joined with nearly all Republicans to pass a bill reopening the US government by exactly the required 60–40 majority.

The House of Representatives still needs to approve the bill, which should happen in the coming days. This will end the longest US government shutdown.

US President Donald Trump’s ratings have slumped to a low this term following big wins by the Democrats in the New Jersey and Virginia state elections. This vote will widely be seen as Senate Democrats unnecessarily caving to Trump. More

The Democrats won recent elections with a laser focus on cost of living. Now comes the hard part: getting the left and centre to agree on a vision for America’s future. More

All of a sudden, the Democrats seem to be on a roll.

Last week’s elections in the United States gave the party the boost it has been desperately seeking since Donald Trump recaptured the White House in 2024 and sent the party into a tailspin.

Democrats won governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, and Zohran Mamdani stormed to victory in the New York City mayor’s race in open defiance of Trump.

Perhaps most significant for the Democrats’ chances in the 2026 midterm elections, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 passed by a wide margin. This measure is intended to reconfigure the state’s electorates counterbalance Republican gerrymandering in Texas and other states.

Meanwhile, Trump’s approval ratings continue to slump in national polls amid a prolonged government shutdown.

But if a week is a long time in politics, the next US elections (due in November 2026) are an eternity away.

And there are still serious challenges ahead for the Democratic Party as it seeks not just to win back control of the House of Representatives, but to resist Trump’s attempts to recast the country in his own authoritarian and reactionary image.

Some Democrats have questioned whether Mamdani’s success in New York can be replicated on a national scale.
Alejandro Granadillo/AP

What went right for the Democrats?

Before looking at the challenges, though, it is important to understand what led to last week’s Democratic successes.

Trump governs through crisis and chaos. His pitch to supporters is an existential one, explicitly cultivating white grievance among those voters who feel they have been left behind. He argues that the US political system is so broken, only he can resolve it through extraordinary measures.

Yet, there is a significant gap between Trump’s vision of the United States, and the reality of life for Americans (including many Trump voters).

On the campaign trail in 2024, Trump promised his administration would down bring prices “starting on day one”.

But early evidence from Trump’s tariffs indicates US companies and consumers are bearing the costs. Prices have continued to rise on certain goods, such as apparel, furniture, food items and cars. A recent survey found 74% of respondents had experienced an average increase of monthly household costs by at least US$100 (A$150).

Disappointed expectations are a potent political force that has spelled doom for politicians well before Trump.

The optics couldn’t be worse at the moment, either. Hosting a Great Gatsby-themed party, a brash and boastful display of wealth, at a time when federal food aid is about to end for 42 million citizens is not exactly a public relations coup.

The Democrats that won last week came from different ends of the party’s political spectrum, but there was one thing that united them: a focus on affordability and the cost of living. And they all had a clear message: Trump’s policies are to blame.

This is adept and effective politics. Democrats are identifying the ways that Trump is failing to carry through on his promises, and have been increasingly ruthless in exposing them.

But there are limits to this strategy. To build sustainable electoral coalitions capable of not just winning office but of turning back the larger MAGA tide that swept to victory in 2024, the Democrats need to be able to construct a coherent and compelling vision of the future they want to create.

Can the Democrats unify on a national scale?

The Democrats remain deeply divided over how to respond to Trump – and more broadly, divided over what the party stands for.

The split among Senate Democrats on whether to allow a vote to reopen the government without getting the assurances on health insurance subsidies they’ve been holding out for exemplifies this.

Are the Democrats going to lean into being a moderate and centrist party? Or will they move further left and embrace more progressive positions – those championed by the likes of Bernie Sanders and Mamdani – even if these are to the left of the electorate?

Many left-leaning Democrats want the current leadership – among them, Senator Chuck Schumer – to step aside for more progressive, younger leaders.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP

It is not a problem the party is having these debates. Political parties in the US have always been organisationally looser and ideologically broader than those elsewhere.

It is, however, unclear if the party has the institutional mechanisms to synthesise these strongly polarised perspectives into a consistent agenda and program that Democrats can present to a national electorate.

As some commentators have noted, it is relatively easy for Democrats to win low-turnout state and city-based elections without clarifying these matters. But winning a national election, or recapturing the US Senate, is a more difficult task.

Can the Democrats find a way to not just articulate opposition to Trump, but put forth of a common vision of America’s future embraced by these disparate wings of the party?

And how do they turn words into action?

When a political system is in crisis, it is not enough for progressives to repeat over and over what has gone wrong. They also need solutions – a positive case for what they want to achieve and a policy agenda to enact it. Then, they can build a new social coalition around a common sense of purpose.

It is all well and good to denounce Trump’s poor economic management, but will Democrats be able to implement strategies that deliver on their affordability promises?

For this to happen, the party has to agree on concrete plans to reinvigorate economic growth beyond the tech sector and ensure a fairer redistribution of the benefits of this growth. In addition, they’ll need to come together on the right balance of investment in the American people and infrastructure through government spending, and the need to reduce the US’ extraordinary debt levels.

To make things even more difficult, they’ll need to articulate how to achieve this with a Congress prone to partisan gridlock like never before in modern history. So far, the Democrats have no clear answers to these fundamental questions.

The Democrats’ challenge, therefore, is not just to repudiate Trump’s dark vision of America, but to put forward their own positive vision of what the future can be. Recent victories are encouraging, but a lack of this broader imaginative work so far is striking.

The Democrats have come closer to working out how to win – but still need an answer for an even more defining question: what do they want to win for? More

The extended government shut-down has seen Trump’s already-weak ratings tumble further. More

Donald Trump’s net approval has slumped to its lowest this term as the United States government shutdown breaks the record for the longest shutdown. Democrats had big wins in state elections on Tuesday.

I previously covered the ongoing US government shutdown on October 9, eight days into a shutdown that began on October 1. This shutdown has now lasted 38 days, beating the previous record 35-day shutdown that was set during Trump’s first term.

Although Republicans hold the presidency and majorities in both chambers of Congress, they cannot pass a budget without Democratic support in the Senate owing to the Senate’s requirement for 60 votes out of 100 senators to invoke “cloture” and end a “filibuster”.

Republicans hold a 53–47 majority over Democrats in the Senate, so they need seven Democrats to vote with them to obtain cloture. Democrats are refusing to help to pass a budget unless health insurance subsidies are extended.

For the first three weeks of the shutdown, Trump’s ratings were resilient, with his net approval in analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls rising slightly to -7.5 on October 19.

But since then, Trump’s net approval has slumped 5.5 points to -13.0, a low for him this term. Currently, 55.1% disapprove of Trump’s performance while 42.1% approve.

Trump’s net approval on the four issues tracked by Silver have all fallen recently. He now has a net approval of -4.9 on immigration, -17.6 on the economy, -17.8 on trade and -28.9 on inflation.

In Silver’s historical comparison on how Trump’s ratings compare with previous presidents since Harry Truman at this point in their presidencies, Trump’s net approval is only better than during his own first term. Joe Biden’s net approval was -8.3 at this point, making him the next worst on net approval.

Since a peak for the US benchmark S&P 500 stock market index on October 29, it has lost 2.5%. But in the last six months, it has gained nearly 20%.

Trump’s ratings will probably rebound if the shutdown ends soon. Unless something goes badly wrong with the US economy or the stock market, his ratings will probably return to net high single-digit negative, not net double-digit negative.

Democrats had big wins at state elections

US state elections occurred on Tuesday in New Jersey and Virginia. Democrats won the Virginia governorship by 57.2–42.6 over Republicans, a gain for Democrats. They also won the other two statewide races for lieutenant-governor and attorney-general.

Democrats won the lower house of the Virginia legislature by 64–36, a 13-seat gain for Democrats. The upper house was not up for election, but Democrats hold a 21–19 majority there. At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Virginia by 5.8 points, though Trump won the overall popular vote by 1.5 points.

Democrats held the New Jersey governorship, winning by 56.4–43.0, far exceeding polls that gave Democrats a low single-digit lead. They lead in the lower house by 53–19, with eight seats uncalled.

If the uncalled seats go to current leaders, Democrats will win by 57–23, a five-seat gain. Democrats hold the upper house by 25–15, which was not up for election. Harris beat Trump in New Jersey in 2024 by 5.9 points.

In June, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani had won the New York City Democratic mayoral nomination, defeating former New York governor Andrew Cuomo by 56.4–43.6 after preferences to win the Democratic primary. On Tuesday, Mamdani defeated Cuomo, who ran as an independent, in the general election
by 50.4–41.6, with 7.1% for a Republican.

Unlike the primary, the general election used first past the post. But preferences would not have changed the outcome as Mamdani exceeded 50%.

In response to Texas Republicans gerrymandering Texas to create five additional federal Republican seats, California Democrats proposed retaliatory gerrymandering of California’s federal seats. A referendum was needed to approve this gerrymander. With 79% reporting, “yes” to gerrymandering had won by 63.9–36.1. Harris won California in 2024 by 20.1 points.

See also my coverage of these elections for The Poll Bludger. In this piece, I wrote about past and upcoming elections in the Netherlands, Bolivia and Chile.

Implications for the 2026 midterm elections

At November 2026 midterm elections, all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. In Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections, there were respectively 8.8 and 7.5 point swings to Democrats from the 2024 presidential margin in those states.

If these swings are applied to Trump’s national margin of 1.5 points in 2024, Democrats would win nationally by 6.0 points (New Jersey swing) or 7.3 (Virginia swing). So if the swing in either state occurs nationally in 2026, Democrats are very likely to gain control of the House.

There will be 35 seats up for election in the Senate next November (33 regular and two special elections). Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13, but only two Republican seats are thought vulnerable: Maine and North Carolina.

In 2024, Harris won Maine by 6.9 points and Trump only won North Carolina by 2.2 points. Trump won all other states Republicans are defending by at least a double-digit margin. Even if the swing in Virginia happened nationally, Democrats would gain only two seats and Republicans would hold the Senate by 51–49.

It’s become increasingly difficult for Democrats to win the Senate, as the two senators per state rule skews Senate elections towards low-population, rural states.

In the Fiftyplusone generic ballot average, Democrats lead Republicans by 45.0–41.9. The low single-digit lead for Democrats hasn’t changed since April. The current 3.1-point Democrat lead is below what happens from applying the swing in New Jersey and Virginia nationally.

While Trump’s ratings have dropped, there hasn’t been a Democratic surge on the generic ballot. That suggests voters are blaming both parties for the shutdown. More