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    Kamala Harris has spoken of her racial backgrounds − but a shared identity isn’t enough to attract supporters

    In one of the most memorable moments of the current presidential campaign, Donald Trump in July 2024 contended that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris recently stopped identifying as Indian and “happened to turn Black.”

    With these false remarks, Trump implied that Harris emphasized one part of her background to appeal to voters and then changed that to appeal to a different group of voters.

    Lost within this controversy has been the underlying assumption in Trump’s comments, that people tend to vote for someone with a shared identity. But is that true? Are Asian Americans, for example, especially likely to vote for Harris because of their shared identity?

    Asian Americans are a quickly growing political constituency that made a difference in 2020 in swing states such as Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, helping elect President Joe Biden. They are positioned to be influential again this November.

    Taken as a whole, Asian Americans lean Democratic in 2024, with 62% favoring Harris, compared with 38% who support Trump. But for Harris, Asian Americans are not as strong a voting bloc as Black Americans, who poll at 77% supporting Harris, according to the Pew Research Center. Harris cannot take Asian Americans’ votes for granted.

    Kamala Harris takes a photo with guests during a White House reception in May 2022 celebrating Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month.
    Associated Press

    What guides identity politics and voting

    Despite the assumption in Trump’s comments that voters gravitate toward a political candidate who shares parts of their identity, such as race or gender, that is not always the case.

    Voters are more likely to vote for someone with a shared identity when they see a “linked fate.” with the candidate. So, people who have the same ethnicity or race may vote in a similar fashion because they expect to experience the effects of policy changes in the same way. Latinos could be more likely to vote for a Latino candidate because the candidate would prioritize issues that matter to them, such as immigration reform.

    Politicians, for their part, can try to encourage people with whom they share an identity to believe in a linked fate to win their vote. In order to do this, candidates can play up issues that affect their identity group and then make the case that they are best equipped and more motivated to address those problems.

    For instance, women rank abortion rights as a key issue and trust Harris to understand it.

    In order to earn voters’ support, candidates must also come across as likely to act in their supporters’ shared interests. This helps explain why people who care about so-called women’s issues, such as education or health care, are more likely to vote for a Democratic woman than a Republican woman. People generally think that Democrats represent women better than Republicans do – and they would not assume that a Republican female politician would champion women’s issues just because of her gender.

    With this in mind, a candidate wanting to secure the vote of a group must first know what issues matter to them and then demonstrate that they understand the group well enough to earn their vote.

    Asian Americans, like most Americans, list the economy, inflation, health care, crime, Social Security, the price of housing and immigration as their top issues in this election.

    In order to effectively appeal to Asian American voters, Harris could demonstrate first that she identifies as Asian in order to invoke their shared identity. She could also show that she both understands the issues that Asian Americans care about and that she can be trusted to act in ways they favor on those issues.

    To an extent, Harris has already worked to publicly identify with her South Asian heritage. She has referred to her mother’s immigrant background and has talked about her grandfather who lived in Chennai, in southern India. She has made references to her ethnic culture, such as when she mentioned coconut trees and cooked the traditional South Indian dish dosa in a video with fellow Indian American Mindy Kaling.

    New Hampshire delegate Sumathi Madhure attends the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19, 2024.
    Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    Connecting to Asian Americans

    Once solidifying that they share an identity with a group of voters, political candidates must demonstrate that they understand how the group experiences the issues that matter to them. The concerns of Asian Americans arise out of specific experiences they have – such as immigration.

    Asian Americans, for example, often complain about the long wait to sponsor family members abroad for visas to the U.S. At the same time, Asian Americans represent 15% of immigrants living in the U.S. without a visa.

    Asian Americans are also concerned about the growing government backlog of visas and smugglers whom immigrants pay to help them illegally cross the border.

    Harris often speaks about immigration and the U.S.-Mexico border, but not in personal terms – or about how this issue specifically relates to Asians.

    While all U.S. residents are affected by inflation, small-business owners, in particular, feel the pinch. They must pay higher prices for goods but have limited capital with which to do so. They also must navigate higher interest rates.

    While Asian Americans make up about 7% of the total U.S. population, they represent 10% of business owners and are the largest nonwhite group of small-business owners.

    Harris talks about the economy and inflation, as well as the need to support small-business owners, but not about how these issues specifically affect Asian Americans. Her only ad targeting Asian Americans has focused on hate crimes against them.

    And Asian Americans, like most voters, strongly support Social Security and other federal programs that aim to ensure stability for the elderly. Harris could speak of how Social Security is the sole income source for over a quarter of Asian Americans – and for a third of African Americans – compared with 18% of white Americans.

    Harris seems poised to capture the majority of the Asian American vote, which leans Democratic. But to what extent they vote for her – and with how much enthusiasm – will depend on Harris’ ability to connect with them as Asian Americans and the issues they care about. More

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    Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

    The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.2, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.3–46.0.

    Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2.

    In economic data, the US added 254,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate slid 0.1% to 4.1%. The unemployment rate had peaked at 4.3% in July.

    The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

    Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

    In the key states, Harris remains ahead in Silver’s poll aggregates by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins these four states, she probably wins the Electoral College by at least 276–262. Trump leads by 0.5 points in North Carolina (16 electoral votes), one point in Georgia (16) and 1.2 points in Arizona (11).

    Read more:
    Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

    In Silver’s model, Harris has a 56% chance to win the Electoral College, unchanged since last Monday’s article. The FiveThirtyEight model was more favourable to Harris in September, but now gives her a 55% chance to win. It’s close to a 50–50 probability for either candidate, but Harris remains a slight favourite.

    There are still more than four weeks to go until the election, so there’s time for the polls to change and for one candidate to have a decisive Electoral College advantage on election day. Or the polls could be understating either Harris or Trump, in which case the candidate that benefits from the poll error could have a decisive win.

    Thumping lead for LNP in Queensland

    The Queensland state election is on October 26. A Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted September 26–29 from a sample of 1,067, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) a 56–44 lead, a five-point gain for the LNP since the previous Freshwater poll in July 2023.

    Primary votes were 43% LNP (up three), 30% Labor (down four), 12% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (up one) and 7% for all Others (down one).

    Labor Premier Steven Miles had a net approval of -5, while LNP leader David Crisafulli had a +15 net approval. Crisafulli led Miles by 46–38 as preferred premier.

    The poll asked about the federal leaders’ Queensland ratings, with Anthony Albanese at net -17, while Peter Dutton was at net zero. Queensland is a Coalition-friendly state at federal elections relative to the national results.

    Queensland Liberal National Party Leader David Crisafulli is leading in the polls.
    Dan Peled/AAP

    Federal Newspoll quarterly data

    On September 30, The Australian released aggregate data for the four Newspolls taken from July to September, which had a combined sample size of 5,035. The Poll Bludger said the Coalition led in New South Wales by 51–49, unchanged on the June quarter.

    In Victoria, Labor led by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. In Queensland, the Coalition led by an unchanged 54–46. In Western Australia, Labor led by an unchanged 52–48. In South Australia, Labor led by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor.

    The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack data shows the results by educational attainment. In the September quarter, Labor led by 53–47 among university-educated people, a one-point gain for Labor. With TAFE-educated people, there was a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition. Those with no tertiary education favoured the Coalition by 51–49, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

    Coalition gains lead in Morgan poll

    A national Morgan poll, conducted September 23–29 from a sample of 1,668, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the September 16–22 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up 0.5), 30% Labor (down two), 13.5% Greens (up one), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up one).

    The headline figure uses respondent preferences. But if preferences were assigned using the 2022 election flows, Labor led by 51.5–48.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. There was an unusually large gap last week between the two measures.

    Resolve poll on Middle East conflict

    Voting intentions have not yet been released from a national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted October 1–5 from a sample of 1,606. Regarding the political response in Australia to the Middle East conflict, 22% thought Dutton and the Liberals had responded best, 18% Albanese and Labor and 6% Adam Bandt and the Greens, while 55% said none had responded best or were unsure.

    On Australia’s actions, 23% thought we should voice in-principle support for Israel, 12% Gaza and 65% both or none. On accepting refugees, 52% don’t want any refugees accepted, 24% would accept refugees from either Israel or Gaza, 13% Gaza only and 11% Israel only. More

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    We studied 19,898 Kickstarter campaigns − and discovered that talking politics hurts fundraising

    Divisive political opinions are everywhere these days, but entrepreneurs might be wise to bite their tongues.

    In a recent analysis of 19,898 Kickstarter campaigns, we found that budding businesses that expressed political views attracted less funding than ones that stayed apolitical.

    As professors who study entrepreneurship, we wanted to understand the link between political expression and crowdfunding success. So we looked at thousands of campaigns launched over a two-year period.

    We searched the campaigns for subtle expressions of conservative values – “Still remembering that all lives matter, regardless of color or religion and hoping to have made my idea of sandwich shop clear,” to name one example – and more overt ones, like “Drain the Swamp and Defend MAGA Country.”

    We did the same thing with subtle liberal perspectives – like “I have become fed up and irritated by the lack of equality and diversity within media” – and overt ones, like “I believe that art matters + and the magic is real. Also: Black lives matter.”

    In the end, we found that every percentage-point increase in political speech was associated with a 9% decline in funds raised for conservatives and a 17% decline for liberals.

    Our theory, which our findings supported, is that people don’t expect to see anyone sharing political beliefs in a business context. When entrepreneurs violate this expectation, it leads people to view them as unprofessional and ultimately hurts their crowdfunding performance.

    The backlash against political speech doesn’t seem to affect everyone equally. Campaigns with third-party endorsements, such as Kickstarter’s “Project We Love” badge, were punished less, we found. Having photos or videos on a campaign page also seemed to reduce the negative effect. An entrepreneur’s prior successful experience was effective when leaning into a conservative, but not liberal, voice.

    Why it matters

    As entrepreneurs become increasingly vocal about politics, they should understand the potential costs of speaking authentically. Our study shows that funders expect entrepreneurs to be apolitical in crowdfunding and penalize those who express their political values. Although we looked specifically at Kickstarter campaigns, the implications for established businesses, which also seek investment, are obvious.

    To be fair, our work also finds evidence that entrepreneurs who come across as more credible – thanks to third-party endorsements, say, or their use of multimedia – are less penalized for political speech. But in general, entrepreneurs should at least consider keeping mum on politics in their funding pitches to ensure they don’t hurt their chances.

    What still isn’t known

    While we focused on the effect of entrepreneurs’ political speech, a natural follow-up question is whether funders’ political views affect whether they invest in a project. Researchers know that conservatives and liberals approach decision-making quite differently. So we think it’s crucial that researchers turn to this question next. These types of studies will start to provide a more holistic view of how political beliefs affect crowdfunding.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work. More

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    View politics critically but charitably and with good old common sense: cowboy commentator Will Rogers’ wisdom for 2024

    For those trying to come to terms with a particularly tumultuous election year full of deep divisions, ideological invective and personal insults, guidance can come from a historical figure whose insights into American politics still prove useful.

    As I chronicle in my new book, “Citizen Cowboy: Will Rogers And The American People,” Will Rogers stood as perhaps the most influential commentator on public affairs in the United States a century ago. Born in Oklahoma, he had risen to fame as a cowboy humorist in vaudeville, the Ziegfeld Follies, Broadway shows and silent movies, and he earned public acclaim with his shrewd, folksy and witty observations on American life and values.

    By the 1920s, this led to a syndicated column Rogers wrote for over 300 newspapers, a stream of magazine articles and essays, and steady appearances on the national lecture circuit. He hosted a national radio program and had starring roles in several Hollywood “talkie” movies.

    Rogers became the most beloved figure in America until his death in 1935. As I discovered in my research, a flood of eulogies appeared in newspapers and magazines following his passing. Typical was this one appearing in the Minneapolis Journal: “We all loved Will Rogers … . Poets we have had, and philosophers, and humorists of note; but not one among them all so endeared to the heart of the whole people. None was ever mourned with such genuine grief, none will be so missed from our common life.”

    Especially fascinated by the nation’s politics, Rogers often trained his humor on its foibles and achievements alike. Three touchstones guided his commentary: a genial skepticism about politics as usual, a belief that politics must be subsumed within a broader perspective on life and, above all, an insistence that political discussants honor a code of civility.

    Will Rogers sends up politics and politicians in this radio broadcast from 1924.

    ‘I just … report the facts’

    Rogers got most of his laughs from skeptical jabs at the system. He gleefully skewered the “bunk” of American politics, his favorite word for politicians’ shameless hypocrisy, bombastic rhetoric, inflated egos and shady deal-making. Both Democrats and Republicans stood guilty of peddling bunk.

    “You know, the more you read and observe about this politics thing, you’ve got to admit that each party is worse than the other,” Rogers said. “It is getting so that a Republican promise is not much more to be depended on than a Democratic one. And that has always been considered the lowest form of collateral in the world.”

    The Oklahoman poked fun at the political system’s grandiose rituals and fumbling institutions. He wrote of a benumbing presidential convention in 1924 that took three weeks and 103 ballots to nominate a nonentity: “In number of population the convention is holding its own. The deaths from old age among the delegates is about offset by the birthrate.”

    Rogers pilloried governmental ineptness in Washington, D.C. One year, when Congress reconvened after a round of egregious bickering and inaction, he joked, “Let us all pray: Oh Lord, give us strength to bear that which is about to be inflicted upon us. Be merciful with them, Oh Lord, for they know not what they do.”

    He claimed a simple approach: “I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”

    ‘Critical yet charitable’

    Yet Rogers insisted that political disputation should be kept in perspective. He urged his fellow citizens to avoid politicizing every public issue and instead concentrate on more meaningful endeavors – family, friends, community and work.

    Despite the dire warnings of political zealots, he said, “There is no less sickness, no less Earthquakes, no less Progress, no less inventions, no less morality, no less Christianity under one (president) than the other.”

    But for Rogers, the ultimate guarantee of stability came from the mass of workaday American citizens seeking commonsense solutions to public problems. What Rogers called the “Big Honest Majority” lived simply and worked hard, wanted a good life for their families and pursued their own version of happiness.

    The average citizen, Rogers believed, had solid judgment and “was not simple minded enough to believe that EVERYTHING is right and doesn’t appear to be cuckoo enough to believe that EVERYTHING is wrong.”

    Finally, Rogers urged an approach to politics that was critical yet charitable, principled yet magnanimous. A connoisseur of civility, he insisted that political disputants were opponents, not enemies, and that contrary viewpoints deserved respect.

    The humorist set the example: “I haven’t got it in for anybody or anything.”

    Will Rogers dining with Oklahoma Gov. Bill Murray on Feb. 3, 1931, in Oklahoma City. Murray had his usual meal of hard-boiled eggs and milk; Rogers chose fried chicken.
    Associated Press

    Surviving overwrought partisanship

    Even as he pilloried politicians’ shortcomings, he never made it personal. Despite their faults, Rogers wrote, “the Rascals, when you meet ’em face to face and know ’em, they are mighty nice fellows.” He declared famously, “I’ve joked about every prominent man in my time but I never met a man I didn’t like.”

    Determinedly nonpartisan throughout most of his career, he leaned toward the party of Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression while jesting, “I don’t belong to any organized political faith; I’m a Democrat.” The cowboy humorist saw politics as an endeavor for genial discussion, not a blood sport.

    Rogers’ political axioms of healthy skepticism, perspicacity and civility remain useful guides for surviving even the most sordid electioneering.

    So when you hear overwrought partisans lamenting “the end of democracy” or “we won’t have a country left anymore,” take a deep breath and consider Will Rogers’ calmer, wiser approach to presidential elections a century ago. Remember his conclusion that America won’t be ruined “no matter who is elected, so the Politicians will have to wait four more years to tell us who will ruin us then.”

    Then you can adopt his sage advice that when dealing with a political adversary, “don’t disagree with him looking at him; walk around behind him and see the way he’s looking.” More

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    Abortion rights are on 10 state ballots in November − Democrats can’t count on this to win elections for them

    Ten states will vote on ballot initiatives on abortion this November: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada and South Dakota.

    Many political analysts and pundits view abortion as a partisan issue, fueling speculation that direct votes on abortion rights will boost Democrats’ chances up and down the ballot in November. Some Democratic strategists are hoping that turnout from the ballot initiatives will swing elections away from Republican candidates in key states such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida.

    But the effects that ballot measures have on which candidates win or lose is rarely so straightforward.

    For the past three years, my work as a political sociologist has been cataloging and studying ballot initiatives. Based on state-level data and recent trends, I believe it is highly likely that many of November’s ballot initiatives to protect abortion rights will pass. But that will not necessarily translate into broader Democratic candidate victories.

    An attendee wears a ‘vote for life’ shirt during a rally in Kentucky ahead of the abortion ballot vote in October 2022.
    Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

    The wave of abortion rights votes

    The U.S. Supreme Court overturned half a century of federal abortion protections in June 2022, sending the question of whether and when people can get an abortion back to individual states to decide. Republican legislators in Kansas quickly seized the opportunity and rushed a referendum enabling them to ban abortion onto the August 2022 primary ballot.

    It backfired. Despite being majority Republican, almost 60% of Kansas voters rejected the abortion ban.

    In 2022 and 2023, voters in six more states protected abortion rights with ballot initiatives. Kentucky and Montana voters rejected abortion bans, while California, Michigan, Ohio and Vermont voted to codify abortion rights in their state constitutions, all through ballot measures.

    Ballot initiatives are nonpartisan

    Ballot initiatives – also called propositions, measures, referendums and more – refer to votes on a policy instead of a politician. In some states, voters can put initiatives on the ballot by gathering signatures. In all states except one – Delaware – state legislators can put issues directly before voters in the form of a referendum. In other instances, such as amending most state constitutions, decisions must go to a popular vote.

    The media often portrays U.S. politics through a polarized, two-party lens. Ballot initiatives do not necessarily fit the mold. Ballot initiative votes on topics such as the minimum wage and Medicaid expansion show that some policies are popular across Democratic and Republican party affiliations. For example, raising the minimum wage is undefeated in 24 ballot initiatives at the state level since 1996, including in traditionally conservative, liberal and swing states.

    The state ballots that wound up serving wins on abortion rights since 2022 reflect a similar dynamic. The issue is polarizing, but not down the middle and not strictly along party lines. Nationwide polls show long-standing majority support for abortion rights, including among many Republicans.

    Inconclusive at best

    There is research indicating that ballot initiatives can increase voter turnout. However, most studies show mixed results and limited effects.

    Looking at turnout numbers in the 2022 and 2023 state elections that had votes on abortion rights, and comparing them with those same states’ previous election numbers, we don’t see compelling evidence for the ballot measures bringing out more voters.

    Michigan and Vermont had increased turnout in 2022, while voter numbers decreased in California, Kentucky and Montana.

    Kansas in 2022 and Ohio in 2023 both saw voter gains, but those votes are poor comparisons, because they took place in a primary and an odd-year election, respectively, when turnout tends to be low.

    Ballot initiatives on abortion rights, whether to codify or ban them, also appear to have little impact on partisan elections. After defeating the abortion ban in August 2022, Kansas voters went on to reelect both the Democratic incumbent governor and a Republican incumbent senator that November. Kansas House seats remained unchanged, with Republicans holding a supermajority.

    In Kentucky and Montana, a majority of voters rejected abortion bans in 2022 and continued to elect Republicans to state office. In Michigan, Democrats took control of the state Legislature in 2022 alongside the state’s vote for abortion rights.

    It is possible that Michigan’s “blue wave” in 2022 got a boost from the state’s ballot initiative to protect abortion rights that year. However, it likely had more to do with direct legislation from the previous election. In 2018, Michigan voters passed a ballot initiative to create an independent redistricting commission that undid years of gerrymandering that had benefited Republicans. These redrawn maps were first used in 2022.

    Most importantly, just because a voter cares deeply about abortion rights does not necessarily mean they will vote for Democrats. Republican women voters overwhelmingly support the right to abortion in all states.

    Meanwhile, about 6% of voters chose “uncommitted” in Nevada’s 2024 Democratic primary, in line with the national uncommitted movement in solidarity with Palestinians. This political movement advocates withholding support for Democrats over the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Those voters are highly likely to support the state’s abortion initiative in November but may not be persuaded to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris or other Democrats.

    Signs supporting the upcoming abortion ballot initiative in Montana are displayed during a rally in Bozeman on Sept. 5, 2024.
    William Campbell/Getty Images

    Democrats can’t rely on abortion ballot initiatives

    Ballot initiatives are about specific issues, not political candidates. In this case, the issue of abortion rights has more nationwide support than the Democratic Party does.

    If Democratic politicians want to win in November – from Harris and Tim Walz to state and local candidates – they will need to persuade voters based on their merits compared with their Republican counterparts. They can’t count on abortion initiatives to win the 2024 election for them. More

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    A ‘superficial’ and ‘misguided’ version of freedom has captured the American right. Joseph Stiglitz considers the alternatives

    “Freedom is a core human value,” writes Joseph Stiglitz in his new book The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society. “But many of freedom’s advocates seldom ask what the idea really means. Freedom for whom? What happens when one person’s freedom comes at the expense of another’s?”

    Reflecting on the famous slogan of American jurist James Otis – “taxation without representation is tyranny” – Stiglitz observes with concern that many on the contemporary US right seem to have arrived at the view that “taxation with representation is also tyranny”.

    This type of thinking has increased over the decades, extending from Ronald Reagan’s claim that “markets are the solution, government is the problem” to Ted Cruz’s call to abolish entire government departments – including the IRS, the Department of Education and the Department of Energy – and Ron Paul’s assertion that “the more government spends the more freedom is lost”.

    Something, argues Stiglitz, has gone awry with the conception of freedom here.

    Review: The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society – Joseph Stiglitz (Allen Lane)

    In The Road to Freedom, Stiglitz critiques what he sees as the “superficial” and “misguided” interpretation of freedom that has gained ascendancy in the period of neoliberal globalisation. This view, he says, is held in common by the assortment of conservatives, libertarians and other right-of-centre people that make up the US right.

    Focusing on the US, he argues that the way the idea has been defined and pursued has led to the opposite of “meaningful freedom”. It has failed “to give due recognition to how interdependent people are in a modern economy” and led to a vast reduction in the “freedoms of most citizens”.

    The most important value

    Stiglitz has a long resumé, which includes serving as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration. He is a former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and is currently a professor at Columbia University. He was awarded a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001. In 2011, he was named by Time as one of the world’s 100 most influential individuals.

    The author of many works and a longstanding critic of the neoliberal turn in economics and public policy, Stiglitz is perhaps best known to a wider public for his bestselling book, Globalization and Its Discontents (2002). There, he critiqued the neoliberal global trade order, which he argued was exploitative, hindered developing economies and was driven by faulty assumptions about how markets work.

    Written in an accessible style, his new book takes an economist’s lens to the topic of freedom. He draws on a wide range of work in economics, including his own, in fields such as information economics and behavioural economics. He also draws on a range of material on politics, including work by key thinkers in liberal philosophy such as Isaiah Berlin and John Rawls.

    Economics, Stiglitz writes, provides “tools to think about the nature of the trade-offs that should be central to discussions about freedom”, and about how those trade-offs should be addressed. Extending his earlier work, he argues for “an economic and political system that delivers not only on efficiency and sustainability but also on moral values”.

    The most important value, he says, is freedom. But his is a broadened concept of freedom, “conceived as having inherent ties to notions of equity, justice and well-being”. A key part of his argument is that the “powerful strands in modern economic thinking” that have come to be termed neoliberal assume that “the freedom that matters most, and from which other freedoms indeed flow, is the freedom of unregulated, unfettered markets”.

    This conflation of freedom with unregulated markets comes with “huge risks for society”. The policies that “freed” the financial sector, Stiglitz points out, led directly to the “the largest financial crash in three-quarters of a century”. Deregulating the banks and failing to regulate derivatives led bankers to use their new freedom to “enhance their profits”.

    The 2008 global financial crisis made it clear that this freedom for bankers came at the expense of workers, ordinary investors and homeowners. And, Stiglitz adds, “we as a society lost our freedom”, because “we had no choice but to bail out the banks or the entire financial system would have collapsed”.

    Joseph Stiglitz.
    Fronteiras do Pensamento, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    A deeper understanding of freedom

    Stiglitz notes the way neoliberal policies have freed corporations to “exploit consumers, workers and the environment”, and freed trade to “accelerate de-industrialization” in the US. The combination of key economic developments, such as globalisation and monopolisation, and the resulting concentration of economic power, have played a significant role in “increasing inequality, slowing growth and reducing opportunity”.

    These massive inequalities are socially corrosive. The incentives of neoliberal capitalism, Stiglitz writes, “have done much to weaken trust”, which has led to a “narrowing of vision and values”. They engender selfish and dishonest behaviour. “Without adequate regulation, too many people, in the pursuit of their own self-interest, will conduct themselves in an untrustworthy way, sliding to the edge of what is legal, overstepping the bounds of what is moral.”

    This has led, in turn, to the rise of populism. “The challenges and attacks on democracy have never been greater in my lifetime,” Stiglitz warns. “Trump is what neoliberalism produces.”

    Neoliberal capitalism, he emphasises, “does not enhance freedom in our society”. It obstructs the understanding people have about “how their actions might constrain the freedom of others”. In general, it “curtails the freedom of the many while it expands the freedom of the few”. As such, Stiglitz argues for “a deeper understanding of the meaning of freedom”, seeking to “strengthen democratic debate of what economic, political and social system will best contribute to the freedom of the most citizens”.

    A key problem is simply an inadequate view of markets. Stiglitz points out that the concept of “unfettered markets” is an oxymoron, because it is the state and its laws that provide the framework within which people transact. “Without rules and regulations enforced by government, there could and would be little trade,” he observes. “Cheating would be rampant, trust low.”

    The view that “competitive markets are efficient” is also mistaken, because they are subject to contingencies of imperfect information and incomplete contracts. So too is the belief that “markets on their own would somehow remain competitive” – a proposition that simply ignores “the experiences of monopolization and concentration of economic power”.

    Without well-designed regulation to ensure competition, Stiglitz argues, “firms on their own will subvert competition in one way or another and power becomes more and more concentrated”. In addition, he highlights “critical market failures” – for example, in protecting the environment and managing natural resources. Regulation is thus necessary to “prevent exploitation of each other and the environment”.

    Freedoms, negative and positive

    A key part of what Stiglitz wants us to see is that the rules and regulations that govern economies are not “laws of nature”. The economic forces that both enable and constrain our individual choices and actions in a market economy are significantly shaped by socially determined policy choices.

    The simplistic neoliberal view fails to appreciate how political freedom and economic freedom, in fact, work together. Instead, this view reduces our political freedom to its own “narrow” economistic version. This has led to the well-rehearsed TINA (“there is no alternative”) theme in public political discourse. What is impaired is “a critical societal freedom” – the “freedom to choose an economic system that could, in fact, enhance freedom for most citizens”.

    Stiglitz discusses Isaiah Berlin’s distinction between “negative” and “positive” freedom. Negative freedom refers to “freedom from” – freedom from hunger or state coercion, for example. Positive freedom means “freedom to do” – that is, having the opportunity and resources to be able to choose and act for oneself.

    Liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin distinguished between ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ freedom.
    Stefano Chiacchiarini ’74/Shutterstock

    The positive definition is central to what Stiglitz calls the “most meaningful sense of freedom”. He discusses the concept in terms of “opportunity sets”, arguing that, since the set of options a person has available to them defines their freedom to act, any “reduction in the scope” of possible actions represents a loss of freedom. Someone who is just scraping by “really doesn’t have much freedom”, he observes – “they do what they must to survive”.

    The neoliberal definition narrows the concept of freedom so that it focuses on the negative “freedom from” part – specifically, the state’s imposition of regulations and taxes. It downplays or ignores a crucial aspect of the “freedom to” part: the freedom to pursue one’s interests, “to live up to one’s potential”.

    As economist Brian Callaci summarises, the Right focuses on “the freedom of the individual to follow their whims”. In doing so, it has

    blinded itself to the more urgent question of whether individuals actually have the ability to pursue their chosen ends. […] what shrinks the “opportunity sets” of the majority of individuals is not the state “coercion” involved in legal rules and regulations, but the constraints placed on people by income and wealth, and by the lack of sufficient social support.

    The kind of people we want to be

    Markets enable but also constrain freedom of choice. The classic liberal view is that, in a pluralistic modern society, markets function as individual “preference satisfaction machines”. You are free to use your own money to buy whatever goods you want in whatever quantities you can afford.

    This freedom to transact was historically liberating. But markets also constrain people’s freedom of choice. They allocate goods based on the ability to pay, so production in general is driven by the preferences of the wealthiest. The preferences of people with little money have little effect, and for people with no money they go unmet.

    In reality, power in markets is unequal. People can be compelled to agree to coercive contracts, such as nondisclosure or noncompete agreements, all the way to indentured servitude. And “market discipline” also serves to limit our freedom to choose – to “coerce” us into not pursuing actions or making investments that are socially beneficial but not immediately profitable.

    Behavioural economics has demonstrated that “individuals differ markedly from the way they are depicted in the standard economic theory”. They are less rational, but also less selfish and more “other regarding”. The preferences that the market satisfies, Stiglitz points out, are “not set at birth”; they are shaped, in part, by the market itself, conditioned by our social experiences. This is something that “every parent, everyone working in marketing, and everyone waging campaigns of or against mis- and disinformation knows very well”.

    As human beings we have desires beyond our preferences for this or that consumer product (first-order desires). We also have desires regarding “what kind of people we want to be” (second-order desires). Satisfying such second-order desires requires collective action to create the economic, political and social rules that reward the preferred values, individual behaviours and social practices.

    For example, people may prefer to be more trusting and to “follow the golden rule”. But in a system centred on unfettered markets, which opts not to legislate to adequately protect consumers from exploitation in favour of the market principle of “buyer beware”, the result would be an increase in fraud and swindling, and an increasingly mistrustful society, undermining people’s capacity to be the ethical citizens they would like to be.

    On the other hand, having robust regulation that prohibits fraud and deception rewards trust and allows individuals to live as the people they would like to be. As Stiglitz points out, this does not violate market freedom, as well-designed “guardrails” are a prerequisite for its flourishing.

    Stiglitz advocates an alternative to neoliberalism he calls “progressive capitalism”, or for a European audience “rejuvenated social democracy” along the lines of “a twenty-first century version of […] the Scandinavian welfare state”. While clearly a believer in the merits of “large parts of the economy” being “in the hands of profit-oriented enterprises”, his favoured model operates with a broader conception of freedom than the unduly narrow and reductive neoliberal version.

    In the interests of a well-functioning economy and society, he argues for “a better balance between the market and the state”. This includes redistributive policies, antitrust laws and regulations to tame corporate power, as well as support for trade unions and civil society organisations such as not-for-profit enterprises.

    Policy programs for providing things like infrastructure, housing, employment and health care should be viewed as “enhancing freedom”. Limiting the freedom of some individual economic agents (“the rich”), via the “mild coercion” of regulation and redistributive taxation, enhances the welfare of the majority by expanding opportunity sets. “As in all things,” Stiglitz states, “there are trade-offs.” More

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    Are Americans more attracted to anger or hope? Don Watson reports from the US election trail

    In 2016, Don Watson wrote a remarkable Quarterly Essay predicting the success of Trump, when political commentators were largely united in their belief that Hillary Clinton would win the election.

    So it’s hardly surprising Watson was back in the United States this year to track Trump’s possible return to the White House. But politics can be a cruel game to follow, and he was clearly caught out by the rapid replacement of President Joe Biden by Kamala Harris – and a very different campaign.

    It is too early to analyse the impact of the Trump/Harris debate, but there is little doubt that Harris handled herself impressively and established herself as a viable candidate. How many undecided voters will be put off by Trump’s bluster and boastfulness remains to be seen.

    The first half of High Noon, Watson’s new Quarterly Essay on the US election, reads as if Trump’s re-election is inevitable. Watson had no illusions about Biden’s electability in 2024. Whether fairly or not, Biden was widely regarded as too old and unable to defend his record. That said, it is strange Watson has so little to say about Biden’s success four years ago, when he won back some of those voters who had opted for Trump.

    Review: Quarterly Essay – High Noon: Trump, Harris and America on the Brink by Don Watson (Black Inc.)

    Watson claims Bernie Sanders might have done better than Hillary Clinton in 2016 – but I’m not convinced. The Republicans would have consistently portrayed Sanders as a dangerous socialist, if not a communist – and for reasons Watson himself acknowledges, the dirt would probably have stuck. Against Sanders, Trump would have portrayed himself as the defender of American values in ways he could not four years later against Biden.

    Appalled and enchanted by the US

    Watson writes in the long tradition of outsiders who have traversed the US in search of understanding the complexities of the country.

    Don Watson.

    At his best, as in his account of life in Detroit and nearby Kalamazoo, Michigan, he combines analysis with poetic prose, often drawing on passing conversations to illuminate perceptions of the world rarely shared by readers of the Quarterly Essays. A taxi driver in Queens echoes Trump’s diatribes against illegal immigrants: “I am very angry,” he tells Watson. “Americans are very angry.”

    Rather like journalist Nick Bryant, author of The Forever War, Watson is simultaneously appalled and enchanted by the US.

    Like Bryant, he is aware of growing inequality, persistent racism and the extent of its violence, even as he relishes the energy and inventiveness of so much of American life. Like me, Watson knows that entering the US recalls the moment in The Wizard of Oz where black and white suddenly transforms to colour.

    He writes that Trump has turned politics into “the wildly adversarial and addictive world” of TV wrestling. We understand “wrestlers are real, but not real […] personifications of good and evil, courage and cowardice, patriotism and treachery”.

    As Watson suggests, Trump has created “a fictional setting for his fictions” where “he can be as abusive and as untruthful as he likes” – and where “boasting, posturing and abusing” are expected.

    Trump has turned politics into TV wrestling, as Hulk Hogan’s appearance at the Republican Convention suggests.
    Jim Lo Scalzo/AAP

    One question dominates High Noon, as it did his earlier essay. Namely: what explains Trump’s ability to capture the Republican Party – and perhaps to become only the second president to be re-elected after losing the election following their first term?

    Watson is good at explaining Trump’s ability to channel the discontent and anger of millions of Americans. But he fails to explain the almost total defeat of the Republican establishment, which has so jettisoned its own past that no senior member of any Republican administration before Trump could be found to speak at their convention.

    Former vice president Dick Cheney (under George W. Bush) is among the establishment Republicans who’ve recently announced their support for Harris, hardly surprising as his daughter, Liz Cheney, lost her position in Congress due to her antipathy to Trump.

    Former congresswoman Liz Cheney and her father, former vice president Dick Cheney, are among the Republicans who have endorsed Kamala Harris.
    Jabin Botsford/Washington Post/AAP

    There is surprisingly little reflection on the culture wars, which have become central to Republican campaigns over the past decade. And no discussion of abortion or attacks on woke ideologies (gender, critical race theory), which have become staples of the MAGA language and help cement the white evangelical vote for Trump.

    I wish Watson had spoken to more women, given the growing gender gap within American politics and the way Harris’ nomination has accelerated that. A recent poll shows Harris leading Trump by 13 points among women. Her success in a couple of key states, including Arizona and Nevada, may hinge on otherwise apolitical women turning out to vote on referenda to ban abortions.

    Abortion is for Trump what Gaza is for Harris: an issue that arouses great passions that are impossible to reconcile among people they could normally take for granted. In Tuesday’s presidential debate, Trump equivocated on abortion, making unsubstantiated claims for postpartum terminations while claiming he’s “great for women and their reproductive rights”.

    I suspect the last section of High Noon was written after Watson returned to Australia. His account of Harris’ nomination and the early stages of the 2024 campaign lack the firsthand immediacy of the earlier sections.

    Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at Planned Parenthood in March.
    Adam Bettcher/AAP

    Capitalism trumps democracy

    The overriding question Watson poses is: how can a country that believes itself to be a democracy, the leader of “the Free World”, possibly elect a demagogue like Trump?

    In the end, it seems, capitalism trumps democracy. Watson quotes the right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel as saying he no longer believes freedom and democracy are compatible. Harris consistently stresses that Trump’s tax proposals would further increase economic inequality within the US.

    “An election,” writes Watson, “is democracy’s effort to outrun the anger and envy arising from its failure to honour the promise of a fair shake for everyone.” My hunch is that Harris understands this. The apoplectic columns in the Murdoch press claiming she is light on policy ignore the fact Clinton lost in 2016 despite an armoury of policies designed to attract working-class voters.

    Watson writes that an election is ‘democracy’s effort to outrun … anger and envy’.
    John Minchillo/AAP

    Trump is almost unique in winning (and then losing) by speaking of anger and decline. Harris is in the tradition of both Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama in proclaiming hope. (In choosing the title for his essay, did Watson remember that Reagan cited High Noon as his favourite film?)

    I wish Watson had held off finishing this essay long enough to see whether the Harris campaign’s instinctive sense of how to defeat Trump through positivity over anger, stressing his egoism against her desire to unify the country, pays off.

    Why do we care so much?

    Is Trump a fascist? Watson skirts around this question. He is correct, though, in pointing to Trump’s admiration for Hungarian authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orban.

    In today’s debate, Trump called Orban “one of the most respected men, they call him a strong man” and quoted him as saying “you need Trump back as president”. Trump further claimed China and North Korea are “afraid” of him.

    Trump claims he can end the war in Ukraine, but gives no answer as to how he would do this. Neither Trump nor Harris have any obvious solution for the war in Gaza, although Trump claims she would be responsible for the destruction of Israel, again with no clear explanation for this.

    The constant attempts by Trump’s supporters to interfere with what we would regard as the basic norms of free democratic elections – including, most dramatically, the attacks of January 6 – suggest a second Trump administration would sorely test those Australian politicians who like to speak of our shared values.

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
    Zoltan Fischer/AAP

    Watson reflects a much larger Australian obsession with the US, ranging from the AUKUS agreement to the extraordinarily high proportion of American speakers who turn up at our literary festivals.

    But as Watson writes in his final paragraph: “You have your own life to lead. Why let yourself be lured into theirs?”

    It’s a good question, but Watson has provided an answer for why we should pay attention to US politics. He writes: “Once the Democrats allow themselves to be defined by their opposition to Trump, the fight is as good as lost.”

    Until Harris became the candidate, it seemed as if this was the only strategy the Democrats had to fall back upon. Her performance in the debate suggests Harris is both willing to attack Trump and to promise a rather different path forward, stressing the need for generational change.

    Don Watson’s Quarterly Essay High Noon: Trump, Harris and America on the Brink (Black Inc.) is published Monday 16 September. More

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    Politicians often warn of American decline – and voters often buy it

    Presidential candidates talk about national decline while campaigning. A lot. This was front and center during the June 2024 debate between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.

    “Throughout the entire world, we’re no longer respected as a country,” Trump said, as he has repeatedly.

    Trump continued by saying that if the United States had a president that Vladimir Putin respected, “he would have never invaded Ukraine.” Trump said “we’re laughed at” and that “the United States’ reputation under this man’s leadership is horrible.”

    Biden countered Trump’s evocative statement with the argument that the U.S. has “the finest military in the history of the world” and that it remains well respected abroad.

    “The idea that somehow we are this failing country,” Biden said, “I never heard a president talk like this before.”

    Public polls on other countries’ views of the U.S. support Biden’s point.

    Yet politicians’ warnings of decline persist because they invoke fear for the country’s security, anxiety about another country gaining more power and anger about the United States’ various problems.

    Donald Trump speaks at a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity on Sept. 4, 2024.
    Nathan Morris/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Messages of decline over the years

    While Trump’s messages of American carnage are dramatic, exchanges of this sort are not uncommon in U.S. politics.

    During the 1960 presidential election, for example, John F. Kennedy, then a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, frequently warned that the U.S. was falling behind the Soviet Union, in everything from space exploration to international respect.

    “I don’t want historians, 10 years from now, to say these were the years when the tide ran out for the United States,” Kennedy said during his first televised debate against his Republican opponent, Vice President Richard Nixon, on Sept. 26, 1960.

    Warning of national decline has remained a common campaign message ever since, with the challenging party’s side claiming that the country is falling behind or losing respect, forcing the incumbent’s side to play defense.

    Pushing back on messages of decline

    My research examines the role of perceived threats to national status in domestic and international politics. I ran an experiment in March 2024 with 1,079 Americans, aimed at trying to understand how their concerns about national decline affect their foreign policy opinions.

    One-third of respondents were randomly assigned to read a prompt warning that experts and leaders from both parties agreed that the U.S. was declining, relative to its rivals. Another third of respondents read the opposite message, which listed facts from bipartisan experts arguing that concerns about national decline were overblown. The final third read about a topic unrelated to politics.

    Those who read about American decline reported increased levels of fear, anger and anxiety than the group who did not read about this topic. One respondent, for example, wrote, “My biggest concern is other countries won’t respect us. Once we show weakness, other countries will try to overtake us.”

    However, the text of bipartisan experts arguing that the U.S. was not declining did not assuage Americans’ anxieties.

    Approximately 30% of people, both liberal and conservative, who read that experts said the concerns over national decline are overblown outright rejected the premise of the text, compared with just 11% of those who read that U.S. global standing is declining.

    Some respondents asked if the text was a joke and said that the U.S. is becoming a “third-world country.” Others pointed to the state of U.S. health care or reproductive rights to question how one could suggest that the country is not falling behind.

    Kamala Harris waves as she arrives at a campaign rally in Savannah, Ga., on Aug. 29, 2024.
    Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

    Fighting emotion with emotion

    When the Democratic ticket changed and Biden announced in July 2024 that he would not run for reelection, the political messaging of Democratic leaders did, too.

    Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, have, at times, incited fear about what a second Trump term would look like. But they have also used language and talked about topics that center on joy and excitement, celebrating things like Walz’s tenure as a teacher and football coach and the pride Harris has for her mother’s work and sacrifices.

    “Guided by optimism and faith,” Harris said in her nomination speech in August 2024, she encouraged her supporters to “write the next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told.”

    Harris has also provided an emotionally powerful counter to Trump’s “Make America Great Again,” in the form of “Not Going Back.”

    In Walz’s first appearance as the Democratic candidate for vice president on Aug. 6, he thanked Harris for “bringing back the joy.” With rallies filled with boisterous call-and-responses and chanting, Harris has seized on joy and excitement in detailing a vision of America’s future, juxtaposing her rallies with what she described as Trump’s “the-world-is-doomed rallies.”

    The subtitle of one Harris campaign press release following a Trump news conference, for example, read: “Split Screen: Joy and Freedom vs. Whatever the Hell That Was.”

    US global standing in 2024 campaign

    While Harris’ rallies have largely focused on domestic issues like abortion rights and economic inequality, debates over the country’s global standing will reemerge and persist. In an August 2024 poll, the second-most-common reason likely Harris voters said they supported her was because she would strengthen the United States’ status in the world – while the second-most-common reason other voters opposed her was because they thought she would weaken the country on the global stage.

    Trump has continued to describe the U.S. as a “nation in decline.” Harris, in her Democratic National Convention speech, countered that she will work to ensure that “America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership.”

    Harris also remarked in her acceptance speech: “You know, our opponents in this race are out there every day denigrating America, talking about how terrible everything is. Well, my mother had another lesson she used to teach: Never let anyone tell you who you are. You show them who you are.”

    Campaign rhetoric warning of American decline has been common since at least 1960, and it isn’t going away anytime soon. But with a new Democratic ticket and a transformed race, Democrats are now fighting emotion with emotion. And that is more likely to resonate than informing people that things are not as bad as they fear. More