Philippa Kaur

The Pennsylvania primaries of May 17, 2022, proved a good night for Donald Trump, a better one for “Trumpism” and a problem for moderates hoping for a candidate primed to capture the center in the upcoming midterms.

Trump’s officially endorsed Senate candidate, Mehmet Oz, is currently in a tight race with main GOP rival David McCormick – with the balloting set for a recount.

Both ran their primary campaign as Trumpist candidates and vied for the former president’s nod. Meanwhile, third place in the GOP race went to Kathy Barnette, a Fox News commentator who touts herself as more MAGA than Trump.

The fact that all three leading GOP candidates had the DNA of Trumpism in them suggests a couple of things. First, it indicates that echoing the policies, rhetorical style and personality of the former president can be an effective tool for Republican candidates seeking to appeal to the party base. And this is especially important in a closed-primary state such as Pennsylvania, in which only party members have a say in who gets to run for Senate.

And second, it raises a question about the tried-and-tested plan of candidates’ appealing to the party base in the primary before pivoting closer to the center in the general election: Will that post-primary transformation be possible for Republicans in Pennsylvania – and elsewhere – in 2022?

All local politics is national

The Pennsylvania primary proved that the adage that “all politics is local” has to some degree been inverted: Local and state elections are now run on national issues and are influenced by national figures.

But whereas a Trump endorsement in the recent Ohio primary resulted in an immediate surge for his anointed candidate, J.D. Vance, Pennsylvania didn’t quite play out the same way.

Oz’s chance of winning was certainly not harmed by getting Trump’s stamp of approval. But he didn’t seem to take many votes off McCormick or Barnette in the process. In fact, some see Barnette faring better than expected because Trump supporters decided to vote for her as “the more Trump” candidate, over Oz as the “official” Trump candidate.

Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsement actually meant very little for Doug Mastriano, who won the state’s GOP primary for governor. Mastriano – an avidly Trumpian candidate who repeats the former president’s election conspiracy theories – was already pulling ahead by the time Trump made a late nod of approval in his favor.

The point is, whether these Republican candidates are seen as being faithful to Trump’s signature MAGA cause is what matters when it comes to winning in these primaries.

But here’s the rub for Republicans. That may work well enough in firing up the base during primary season, but it complicates the pivot to running against Democrats – and appealing to more moderate voters – in the midterm election. A candidate like Mastriano will have to defend positions like a total ban on abortion, reversal of support for mail-in voting and conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.

Pennsylvania is seen as a toss-up state when it comes to the Senate vote. In such circumstances, appealing to the center becomes more important – party faithful tend to be locked in; swing voters are up for grabs.

Any GOP candidate who hitches his or her wagon to Trumpian policies and rhetoric may find it harder to appeal to centrists – and may actually alienate some moderate Republicans.

Circling back to the center

A similar dynamic played out in Pennsylvania in the Democratic primary race for Senate, but with success found by positioning policies to the left of the center. One of the more progressive candidates, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, prevailed against the moderate Rep. Conor Lamb.

But even so, Fetterman has, I believe, more room to maneuver come the general election. Fetterman has experience running for – and winning – a statewide office before. Moreover, he has carefully cultivated an “everyman” image, which could play well against either Oz or hedge fund CEO McCormick. Even so, he will have to defend more progressive positions that could also turn off moderate Republicans.

Success in the Pennsylvania primaries came to those candidates able to position themselves away from the center and more in line with the party’s ideological extreme. But it is the Republican candidate, in vying against others for Trump’s blessing as well as his base, who might find it more difficult to circle back to the center during the midterms. More

Reproductive rights have been an urgent topic of discussion around the world in recent days, following the leak of a draft opinion of the US supreme court, written by Justice Samuel Alito, in the case of Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization. If enacted by the court, this opinion would overturn the landmark 1973 case of Roe v Wade. Roe instated the constitutional right to abortion in the US under the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment, which references a woman’s right to privacy.

Overturning Roe would mean that abortion, no longer deemed a constitutional right, would return to the individual US states to legislate. So far, 12 states have so-called “trigger laws”, which would immediately criminalise or ban abortion in the case of Roe falling. This would clearly be disastrous for the rights of women and pregnant people in the US, many of whom would lose all access to abortion healthcare services.

The potential loss of Roe’s constitutional protection for abortion highlights the need for a framework of not just reproductive rights, but reproductive justice. Reproductive justice is about creating a society where principles of equity and inclusion mean that every woman has the right to exercise control over their own body. It is a concept developed by Black American feminists in the 1990s. Reproductive justice goes beyond merely the “right to choose” upheld in a case such as Roe, and asks broader intersectional questions of society.

The global picture

Reproductive justice frameworks have become a hallmark of recent movements to legalise abortion in Ireland, the UK and Latin American countries such as Argentina and Mexico. In Ireland, the “Repeal the 8th” campaign also included calls for the provision of free contraception and comprehensive sex education in state schools. Ireland voted to remove a ban on abortion from its constitution in 2018.

Read more:
Ireland votes to repeal the 8th amendment in historic abortion referendum – and marks a huge cultural shift

In the UK, Northern Irish activists, including those from Alliance for Choice, have emphasised the need for “free, safe, legal, and local” abortion provision including telemedicine for community members who cannot otherwise access abortion, in particular during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Argentina, the “¡Aborto legal ya!” (Legal Abortion Now) campaign took the form of a “marea verde” or “green wave” of feminist campaigners who took to the streets to protest in favour of legalising abortion. One of the hallmarks of the campaign was an awareness of the socioeconomic divide in the country.

‘Green wave’: pro-choice activists in Argentina have chosen a simple and effective branding for their fight for reproductive rights.
Hernan Caputo/Alamy Stock Photo

Although people from all backgrounds were accessing illegal abortion before the new law, people living in poverty were far more likely to die from it.

Standing strong and united

Reproductive justice therefore requires an intersectional approach, viewing society as a community in which demographic factors require that particular care and attention is given to certain parts of the whole. In the US, it is clear that people of colour, LBTQ+ people, undocumented immigrants, disabled people, and people living in poverty will be the first and worst hit by the fall of the Roe doctrine. Women and pregnant people from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds, including many of the aforementioned marginalised communities, will find themselves unable to find the means to travel to a state where abortion remains legal.

Roe was decided based on the right to individual privacy. But what the Alito/Dobbs leak has shown is that rights are fragile things, easily removed. A reproductive rights framework is only as strong as the law it is written in. The constitutional foundations of Roe were criticised by many – including former Supreme Court Justice, the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg – as not being rooted firmly enough in principles of liberty and equality.

This constitutional weakness is what enabled Justice Alito to write his opinion overturning it, using an originalist view of the Constitutional text that sees abortion rights – as Alito reportedly wrote in his leaked opinion – as not “deeply rooted in this Nation’s history and tradition”.

What the US will see now, and where a justice framework proves strongest, is a culture of mutual aid springing up to circumvent or defy abortion bans in states where the legislature chooses to render the procedures illegal. Already, these informal support networks have been seen in countries such as Poland, Malta, and Gibraltar, where Abortion Support Network aims to fund procedures and travel for women and pregnant people who cannot afford to leave their jurisdiction to access abortion care.

Other campaigns such as Women on Waves have taken part in direct action, performing abortions in international waters near countries where it is illegal. The National Network of Abortion Funds in the US will no doubt attract significant support.

The potential overturn of Roe signals dark days ahead for women and pregnant people in the US. But the international abortion and reproductive justice movements show that people stand strongest when they are united. More